Murat Erkan
Analyst · Cabejsek Ondrej with UBS. Please go ahead
Good afternoon, and good evening. Welcome to Turkcell's Fourth Quarter and 2019 Results Call. 2019, my first year as Turkcell's CEO, has been marked by strong financial and operational performance, which has cemented our leadership. I am pleased to see that we pursue the right strategy for the future. With TRY 25.1 billion revenue, we were proud to be the largest revenue generator of the integrated telecom sector. We generated 18.1% yearly top line growth, which is 2% points above our closest competitor. Our growth differential has been wider in the fourth quarter. We are confident of leading sector growth in the future.At the bottom line, we recorded solid net income of TRY 3.2 billion, also the highest in the sector. Our profitable operation as well as successful financial management allow us to generate profits even at difficult times. Therefore, our shareholders face less volatility in profits and received dividends.A 10-year record of 1.5 million yearly postpaid adds and continued ARPU growth was instrumental in this performance. Of note, mobile ARPU growth was almost double the sector average. We are confident of maintaining our strong performance in light of the strategic priorities in our three-year road map.Next slide. Let me briefly compare our results with our guidance. We delivered what we promised. With 18.1% revenue growth and a 41.5% EBITDA margin, we met our guidance. The EBIT margin was slightly above the guidance at 21.4%. We continued our disciplined approach to operational CapEx, 18% of revenue went our mobile and fixed network, enhancing our superior network as well. This confirms our execution capability.Next slide. Moving to the fourth quarter results, good execution of our customer-centric strategy led to a record performance. This quarter, we generated TRY 6.7 billion of revenue on 18.8% growth.We have outperformed our peers in the integrated telecom sector. We had around one million postpaid net adds and their share rose to 62% from 56% a year ago. At the same time, mobile and fiber ARPU increased at record levels. With TRY 2.8 billion of EBITDA, our EBITDA margin was 41.2%. Net income was at TRY 756 million.Besides higher EBITDA as well completed bulk of to the LTE investment, we have increased our cash flow generation capabilities significantly. This resulted in a nearly TRY one billion free cash flow in Q4.Next slide. Now some further detail on our financial performance. We recorded a TRY 25.1 billion top line and TRY 10.4 billion EBITDA in 2019. Our EBIT reached TRY 5.4 billion with a 21.4% margin. Net income saw an all-time high of TRY 3.2 billion on a 60.6% increase. Fourth quarter net income was negatively affected by TRY 199 million settlement with the tax authority.Next slide. Let's look into our operational performance. In the fourth quarter, postpaid subscribers rose by 984,000. This outstanding performance confirmed our determination to gain one million subscribers each year. Blended mobile ARPU rose to TRY 45.9 on a 22.7% increase with upsell to higher tariffs, positive change in subscriber mix and rising data usage. This performance reflects our micro-segmented approach and analytical capabilities.As discussed, in the third quarter, the Easter required all operators to deactivate lines, lacking residency documentation by the six months of subscription. This impacted the whole sector where our share of foreign subscriber is the largest accordingly, we deactivated 1.9 million prepaid lines. 80% of these were generated less than TRY five ARPU. Excluding this regulatory impact, our mobile subscriber base rose by TRY 0.7 million in 2019.Excluding the impact of regulatory action and involuntary line deactivation at year-end, monthly mobile churn was at our comfort level of around 2%. On the fixed broadband front, our fiber subscriber base rose by 29,000 net additions. Residential fiber ARPU grows at an all-time high of 21%. This was mainly due to the renewed offer, upsell performance and price adjustment.Next slide. We believe that a balanced combination of net adds, ARPU and churn management is vital for sustainable healthy growth. This year, we strengthened our market position by shifting to a more valuable portfolio of higher postpaid subscriber in the total base.Notably, the lifetime value of postpaid subscriber is three times that of a prepaid one. The share of postpaid subscriber is at a remarkable 62% as of 2019 end. As such, in the quarter, we gained 984,000 net postpaid subscriber, marking a historic high. Meanwhile, at 20%, we continue our growth trend in postpaid ARPU.This expected trend was communicated to you in previous quarters. Growing ARPU and net addition at the same time confirms the validity of our smart pricing strategy based on big data. Going forward, we will continue to focus on growing our subscriber base, particularly the postpaid component.Next slide. Now a few words on our fixed wireless access product, Superbox. Superbox has become a preferable alternative for customers who are not satisfied with ADSL service particularly, where there is no fiber access. Given its superior user-experience, Superbox quickly gained popularity. Superbox ARPU is twice that of fixed broadband ARPU. This confirms that customers appreciate the value of the service. At the end of 2019, Superbox subscriber had exceeded 300,000, 10 times last year's numbers.Next slide, and now an update on data usage of usage and 4.5G subscription trends. Average mobile data usage rose 53% in a year to nine gigabyte per user. We observed growing data demand from 4.5G as well as non-4.5G subscriber. The main factor driving this 9-gigabyte usage or greater data consumption among all user and the rising share of 4.5G users. Out of 30.7 million customers sign up for 4.5G services, 19.2 million have 4.5G-compatible smartphones, still indicating room for growth. As of the year-end, we had reached 76% smartphone penetration, with 87% being 4.5G compatible. The other 1.3 1.2 million net addition of 4.5G-compatible smartphones.Next slide. I am here for customer, what our motto for 2019. In every action, we aim to create positive experience for our customers to enhance their journey with Turkcell. By analyzing multiple data points, we better understand our customer and their needs. By processing real-time customer data with over 200 scenarios, we get in touch with around 2.4 million customers every day through different channels.This allows us to diversify our offers on a segmented and regional basis and make the right offer to the right customer at the right time. All these efforts have been instrumental in customers' recommending Turkcell over the competition.Next slide. As already disclosed, we are focused on three strategic priorities for the next three years. We recorded milestone for each of these during the years. And here are some highlights. In digital services, we proud to launch Turkey's email provider YaaniMail for customers, develop in-house YaaniMail offers users advanced security features.Data generated on the platform is securely stored at our data centers. Similarly, BiP Multicloud is offered to corporate and carriers as a secured communication platform. Our customer will be able to keep their data at their own data centers. Also we advanced the use of AI in digital services, such as TV, fizy and Dergilik to offer personalization. This has helped to increase their usage. Lastly, we met our target of TRY one billion stand-alone revenue from digital services.Next is our digital business solutions. This business saw 44% growth in 2019 through tailor-made end-to-end IT solution for corporate. A backlog of TRY 1.3 million in existing project is promising for the growth ahead. Our payment service platform Paycell is expanding its user base and merchant points. We observed two times higher bill payment volume and around 24% higher payment for digital content. Paycell Card is increasing in popularity, generating four times higher volume year-on-year. This year, we will advance our services in these areas and continue to share our performance regularly with the market.Next slide. Let's look at our performance on the International market. Turkcell International generate 8% of group revenue. These operations grew by 33% year-on-year in Q4, mainly non-rising data demand in addition to the impact of currency movements. For the full year, growth was at to 37.5%. In local currency terms, the growth rates were 18% and 16% in Q4 and full year, respectively.As we began to capitalize radio frequency usage costs in the fourth quarter of 2018, this cumulative impact has led to a one-off rise in EBITDA at one at a time. On a yearly basis, like-for-like EBITDA margin growth in Q4 was at 1.7% points. In 2019, our subsidiary in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus saw strong 23% growth, with the rising contribution of fixed services and the corporate sector.Next slide. We note the rising importance of the sustainability in every aspect of our business. And so we take first step by pursuing the best practices. Osman, our CFO, joined UN Global Compact CFO Task Force to share ideas and develop principle for investments for sustainable development. We believe that CFOs play a critical role in ensuring the Company's adopt sustainable to practice.Recently, we announced a set of AI principles that commit to the ethical and responsible use of AI. Turkcell marked another first with its contribution to these initiatives. Additionally, Turkcell appointed their Data Protection Officer, tasked with implementing effective and focused data management. In order to achieve a better and more sustainable future for all, we are committed and contributed to the UN Sustainable Development Goals.Next slide. On my last slide, I want to share our full guidance for 2020. In short, the 2020 guidance is in line with the three-year guidance laid out at our 2019 Capital Markets Day. Expecting subscriber and ARPU growth at the rising contribution of focus areas, we target 13% to 16% top line growth.Please consider the discontinuation of the sport-betting business and expect the contraction of financial cell have an estimated 1.5% point negative impact on growth in 2020. This is already incorporated into the guidance. As to profitability, we aim at 39% to 42% EBITDA margin and 18% to 20% EBIT margin. We will continue to invest in our infrastructure while keeping the operational CapEx to sales ratio at 16% to 18%.I now hand over the floor to our CFO, Osman.