Bjorn Moller - President and Chief Executive Officer
Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead
Thank you, Kent and good morning ladies and gentlemen. Thanks for joining us on our second quarter earnings call. I am speaking to you from London this quarter and I am joined by our CFO, Vince Lok in Vancouver. For the Q&A session, we also have our Chief Strategy Officer, Peter Evensen and our Corporate Controller Ryan [ph] on the line. I am pleased to report on one of the strongest second quarter operating performances in our company's history, starting with the highlights for the quarter on slide 3. We earned net income on an operating basis of $77.1 million or $1.05 per share. We have determined that Teekay will need to restate certain financial results to adjusted accounting for certain derivatives on the hedge accounting rules and the results presented today do not reflect these adjustments. Vince will discuss this issue in more detail later in the call, but I should note that none of these adjustments will affect our cash flows or stockholders'. Cash flow from vessel operations or CFVO was $221.7 million, of which 53% came from our fixed rate businesses. The higher than normal percentage of CFVO generated in our spot tanker business was a result of us achieving our highest ever Q2 sot tanker rates. We acquired the remaining 35% of Teekay Petrojarl, taking our ownership of our FPSO business to 100%. We completed follow-on equity issuances in Teekay Offshore and Teekay LNG, raising more than $300 million of new third-party equity and in the process demonstrating that our unique financial structure provides us with access to reasonably priced capital even in today's difficult financial markets, and we remains active in the execution of our value creation strategy through accretive drop down from Teekay Corporation to each of our publicly listed daughter companies, which have enabled them to increase their distributions. On the next few slides I will briefly describe the key events for the quarter in each of our business segments and in each corresponding daughter company. I'll first look at our Conventional Tanker business on slide four. In what is normally a seasonally weak period of tankers, rates soared across sectors of the crude market due to a combination of strong demand and satisfactory supply. We have also witnessed very high volatility in rates typically an indication that the world fleet is operating at on near full utilization. Our Suezmax spot fleet earned the TCE of $73,400 a day, our highest ever quarterly result. Our Aframax spot fleet earned an average TCE of $43,600, with our usual 50-50 east-west fleet split approximately 50% of our days were in the less volatile in the Pacific market which lagged the Atlantic in the timing of the run-off in rates and also did not reach the same peak levels. Typically, this lag effect tends to benefit us during periods of declining rates. It should also be noted that some of our Suezmax tankers are employed on time charters under which we participate in profit sharing arrangements. However, since the profit share amounts are determined and settled annually, they are not accrued on a quarterly basis. Based on Q2 spot tanker rates, approximately $5.8 million or $0.07 per share of share profit was not accrued by Teekay, so it substantially carried forward into future quarters. Q3 is shaping out to be another very strong quarter, with 50% of our Suezmax fleets picked an average rate of $75,000 a day and 50% of our Aframax picked an average rate of $48,000 per day. Rates have softened over the past week, but this is consistent with the pattern of volatility we've seen throughout 2008 and on an absolute basis, rates remain strong for this time of the year. I will provide further comments on market fundamentals later in my presentation. We're increasing our exposure in a couple of ways to what we expect will be a strong tanker market in the second half of the year. We took delivery of the first of our 10 Suezmax newbuildings and we expect the remaining three Samsung newbuilding to deliver between August 2008 and January 2009. We expect our four Chinese Suezmax newbuildings to be somewhat delayed. The first ship by four to five months and expect it to deliver in late 2008 or early 2009. We stepped up our Aframax in-chartering activity in recent weeks with in-charters of 8 vessels and the extension of several existing in-charters. And this would boost our spot voyage stays from August onwards, before being partially offset by the redelivery of a smaller number of in-charters during November and December. We are taking advantage of high ship values by reducing our involvement in the small to medium size product tanker segment, we lack scale in this product segment and don't see attractive near term opportunities to build scale, so as mentioned on our last earnings call, we sold four ex-OMI Handymax product tankers early in the quarter, and two of these have been delivered to the new owners, a third vessel was due to deliver in September and the fourth vessel which is currently under construction is due to deliver in early 2009. In June, we agreed to sell one of our ex-OMI MR product tankers and we also sold one of our older Aframaxes. In July, we sold our 50% interest in the Swift product tanker pool to our partner, Maersk Tankers for $49 million. Prior to the sale, our contribution to that pool consisted of 10 in-charters intermediate sized vessels, and the transaction is subject to regulatory approval. Looking at the TNK box at the bottom of this slide, during the quarter, we dropped down two Suezmaxes to TNK for $187 million. We are obligated to offer TNK an additional two Suezmaxes within the next 12 months. TNK enjoyed a strong quarter performance and earlier this week declared a quarterly dividend of $0.90 per share. In addition to receiving dividend payments from TNK, TK is entitled to performance fee equal to 20% of annual TNK dividends in access of $3.20 per share. Turning to slide 5, we had a fairly quiet quarter in our Liquefied Gas segment in terms of new business, although we did finalize a previously announced agreement to acquire the two Skaugen multi-gas carriers scheduled for 2010 delivery, and we did arrange an $840 million debt financing of the four Angola LNG carriers in which we have a one-third interest. So we arranged this facility under preferential terms and conditions we received in a tough credit market is testimony to a growing competitive advantage that Teekay has relative to many ship owning companies. Turning to Teekay LNG, both on slide five, in Q2 we dropped down two LNG carriers in the Kenai project to TGP for $230 million. Between April and late July, TGP took delivery of the four newly constructed RasGas 3 Q-Flex LNG carriers, completing the biggest single newbuilding project in Teekay's history. As a result of the Kenai LNG acquisition, TGP announced a 4% increase in its quarterly distributions in Q2 and has stated its intention to make a further increase in Q3 related to the RasGas 3 project. TGP completed a follow-on equity offering of $209 million including $50 million taken up by Teekay. The Teekay owned general partner is currently in the 25% bracket from incented distribution right or IDRs. Turning to Offshore segment on slide 6, I'll come back to Teekay Petrojarl and our FPSO business on the next slide in a moment, our shuttle tanker franchise performed strongly in the quarter. We achieved very high speed utilization in our shuttle tanker fleet aided by the current spot tanker market in which we employ any surplus shuttle tanker days. We continue to see an upward rate trend for shuttle tankers illustrated by recent renewals of certain smaller contracts. The current availability and firm rates bode well for the prospects for the four shuttle tanker newbuildings we have on order for delivery in beginning in 2010. On the bottom of slide 6 you see reference to the sale with TOO of an additional 25% of OPCO and the drop-down of two Aframax lightering vessels for a total consideration of $311 million. Following these transactions, TOO has announced an intention to increase distributions by 12% to 15% effective from Q3. And this increase will move the general partner directly from the current 2% IDR bracket to positive 15% bracket and by directly into the 25% IDR split. During the quarter TOO completed a follow-on equity offering up $217 million, which included the $65 million investment by Teekay. Looking at Teekay Petrojarl in slide 7, since acquiring 65% of Teekay Petrojarl for NOK17 per share nearly two years ago, we have been patiently awaiting an opportunity to acquire the rest of the company at a fair price. In June, we acquired the 30% stake held by Prosafe at NOK59, which enabled us to squeeze out the remaining 5% minority shareholders and delist Teekay Petrojarl. The 5% shareholders that were squeezed out have until September to join the fairness of the prices they are being offered for their interest or under any circumstance... but they are under any circumstance obligated to sell the shares to Teekay. As the sole owner of Petrojarl, Teekay tends to receive more of the upside from future contract rollovers and asset deployments in today's high offshore market. It will now also be easier for Teekay to drop down FPSO to TOO and this would accelerate the value elimination of our offshore business. We will also be able to further integrate Petrojarl into Teekay. The renegotiation of certain Teekay Petrojarl's existing FPSO contracts is ongoing. In terms of new FPSO business, the activity level remains high in the sector led by Brazil, but also on a global basis. Industry analysts are forecasting an average to 15 to 20 new FPSO projects will be awarded each year through 2012. Petrojarl is considering new projects on a selected basis, seeking out opportunities which play to its core strength. Recently supply chain pressures in the offshore sector have caused some major FPSO companies to announce significant cost overruns from projects they had been awarded over the last 12 to 18 months based on aggressive bid tactics. We feel that these reports demonstrate the prudence of the disciplined approach to protect economics adopted by Petrojarl. We expect these development to eventually lead to a more attractive pricing on future projects, especially since there should be sufficient FPSO demand to provide work for all the key players. On slide 8 we show our updated sum-of-the-parts value, which currently stands at $60 per share. But this figure does not include the value upside from the TOO, GP moving into the 25% splits nor the improved prospect of being able to drop down FPSO assets to TOO relatively soon. We've already made considerable progress so far this year in executing on our value creating strategy and we believe our continued focus in the strategy will allow to narrow the gap between some of the part value in Teekay share price. Given the very strong market in Q2, I wanted to spend a few minute discussing the latest market fundamentals. The graph on slide 9 compare tanker rates to oil production, which is the most direct driver of tanker demand. Q2 was the second highest product ever for tanker rates, indicated by the blue line and easily the strongest Q2 on record. For 2008 year-to-date, crude oil tanker average earnings are at record highs. We are seeing the familiar picture of tanker rates closely tracking rising Middle East OPEC oil output over the past year and with Saudi Arabia leading the upward charge, by raising its ton mile intensive crude production to the highest level in 25 years. Saudi Arabia expects to reach production capacity of 12.5 million a day by the end of next year, has announced that it is studying plans to raise the capacity, to 50 million barrels a day. The non-OPEC production growth coming up short year-after-year, this ramp up in spare capacity by Saudi Arabia is likely to become a very significant source for future tanker demand growth. On slide 10, we look at the impact on tanker rates... I am sorry, tanker demand created by the combination of oil demand volumes and transportation differences. In recent months, oil demand forecast have been gradually reduced due to weakness in the OECD. However, global oil demand is still expected to grow by 1% this year, and another 1% next year driven by China, India and other developing economics, and as is evidenced from tanker rates, tanker demand amount is very high. As we stated in the past, China is an excellent example of how tanker demand is being created not only by increasing oil import core volumes, but also by the souring of that oil from further fields. The bar chart on slide 10 present this information visually giving you a sense of the leverage effect on tanker demand growth, when both oil volumes and transportation distance is increased. Since 2003, China's oil imports have grown by 100% by 1.8 million barrels a day. But because the proportion of long haul crude shown in red has risen faster than our supply sources, the ton-mile effect of China's import has grown even faster, estimated to be up by 133% over the same period. Today, 25% of China's oil imports originate from West Africa and a growing amount of its oil comes from Venezuela. However, this effect is in no way unique to China. In fact there are more and more examples of increasing average voyage length. Just to name a few, U.S. imports of Venezuela and Mexican crudes are down by 0.5 million barrels a day over the last five years, while imports from West Africa and the Mediterranean are up by 700,000 barrels a day. U.S. West Coast refiners are replacing depleting Alaskan crude volumes with oil from West Africa, Brazil and the Middle East and India is ramping up its import from the Atlantic, supply is rapidly expanding refining base. Bottom line is, nowadays because of growing average transportation businesses; you need more tankers than before to move the same amount of oil. Looking at proved tanker supply on slide 11, on the left half of the table, we've shown that the fleet grew by only seven vessels during the first half of 2008, its slowest rate of growth since 2002. 45 ships delivered while 38 vessels were scrapped or converted for light cargo offshore use. On the right hand side of the table, we've projected these figures out to the end of the year using conservative assumptions. Consistent with the format we use last quarter, we've resumed that 50% of newbuildings due to delivery from China in the second half of this year will be delayed into 2009. Based on our first-hand experience in China, that number could easily be even higher. We've assumed that only a few IMO mandated scrapings will take place despite the temptation of today's record nice scrap prices and we have assumed that only 75% of the ships already sold for conversion earlier this year, but not yet converted will leave the fleet by year end and also that no additional vessels will be sold for conversion in time to leave the fleet this year. On this basis, our projection suggests the tanker supply should grow only marginally for the rest of the year. On top of this, a variety of factors contribute to growing inefficiency in the world fleet and we've talked about these before. They include the growing discrimination against single hull tankers, which still make up 20% of the world fleet. For example, so far this year, single hull fleets just to South Korea are down by 25% compared to last year Another factor that's beginning to add up and which we're also seeing currently is the longer duration of dry-dockings and repairs due to bottlenecking at repair yards, deal renewals on 15 year old ships that used to take 30 or 40 days are now routinely taking 60 to 80 days or more. And thirdly, higher bunker prices are expected to lead to more slow steaming even in relatively strong tanker markets. Our estimate show that at bumper prices of $700 a ton, the approximate threshold TCE rates below which voyage economics would improve from modern tanker to slowdown $110,000 a day for VLCC, $60,000 for Suezmax and 50,000 for an Aframax. Finally, adding it all up in slide 12, we've updated our chart measuring tanker rates shown by the red line in relation to tanker and fleet utilization shown by the green area. According to Platou, world fleet utilization in Q2 was extremely high at 92.6%, levels not seen since the record year of 2004. Underscoring the cumulative effect of changes in transportation distances, Platou calculates that average tanker ton-mile demand in the first half of 2008 was 6.8% higher than the average for all of 2007, while our tanker supply according to Platou only rose 2.1%. What it tells us is that world fleet is fully stretched, explaining the high volatility and the spike in tanker rates to new highs. The dynamics I've just described give us reason to be excited about the outlook for tanker rates in the second half of the year, and through the winter. I will now hand it over to Vince to discuss our financial results. Vince?