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The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX)

Q3 2013 Earnings Call· Tue, Nov 13, 2012

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Transcript

Executives

Management

Carol M. Meyrowitz - Chief Executive Officer and Director Sherry Lang - Senior Vice President of Global Communications Scott Goldenberg - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President and Principal Accounting Officer Ernie L. Herrman - President

Analysts

Management

Kimberly C. Greenberger - Morgan Stanley, Research Division Jeffrey S. Stein - Northcoast Research Jennifer M. Davis - Lazard Capital Markets LLC, Research Division Brian J. Tunick - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division Nancy Hilliker Michael Baker - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division Daniel Hofkin - William Blair & Company L.L.C., Research Division Richard Ellis Jaffe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc., Research Division Omar Saad - ISI Group Inc., Research Division Evren Dogan Kopelman - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division Paul Lejuez - Nomura Securities Co. Ltd., Research Division Dana Lauren Telsey - Telsey Advisory Group LLC Mark K. Montagna - Avondale Partners, LLC, Research Division Howard Tubin - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division Marni Shapiro - The Retail Tracker Roxanne Meyer - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division Laura A. Champine - Canaccord Genuity, Research Division

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the TJX Companies Third Quarter Fiscal 2013 Financial Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded, Tuesday, November 13, 2012. I would like to turn the conference call over to Ms. Carol Meyrowitz, Chief Executive Officer of the TJX Companies, Inc. Please go ahead, ma'am.

Carol M. Meyrowitz

Analyst

Good morning, everyone. And before we begin, Sherry has a few words.

Sherry Lang

Analyst

Good morning. The forward-looking statements we make today about the company's results and plans are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results and the implementation of the company's plans to vary materially. These risks are discussed in the company's SEC filings including, without limitation, the Form 10-K filed March 27, 2012. Further, these comments and the Q&A that follows are copyrighted today by The TJX Companies. Any recording, retransmission, reproduction or other use of the same for profit or otherwise without prior consent of TJX is prohibited and a violation of United States copyright and other laws. Additionally, while we have approved the publishing of a transcript of this call by a third party, we take no responsibility for inaccuracies that may appear in that transcript. Please note that the financial results and expectations we discuss today are on a continuing operations basis. Also, we have detailed the impact of foreign exchange on our consolidated results and our international divisions in today's press release and the Investor Information section of our website, www.tjx.com. Reconciliations of the non-GAAP measures we discuss today to GAAP measures are included in today's press release or otherwise posted on our website, again, www.tjx.com, in the Investor Information section. Thank you. And I'll turn it over to Carol.

Carol M. Meyrowitz

Analyst

Thanks, Sherry. And joining me and Sherry on the call are Ernie Herrman; and Scott Goldenberg. So before we talk about the third quarter, I want to say that on behalf of TJX, our hearts go out to everyone who is affected by Hurricane Sandy. The combination of our own donations and the fundraising effort we held in the U.S. stores this past weekend should come to about $1.5 million going to the Red Cross Discovery -- Disaster Recovery Funds for the natural disaster. So turning to our results. I'm extremely pleased with our third quarter performance. Our strong momentum continued and once again, we demonstrated our ability to post strong comps and profit margin gains on top of challenging year-over-year comparisons. Comps increased 7%, significantly exceeding plan, over 3% increase last year. Earnings per share increased 17%, also above plan, and on top of 3 consecutive years of double-digit EPS growth in the third quarter. Importantly, our momentum continued to be broad-based with all of our businesses delivering excellent results. Customer traffic continued to drive the comp increases at all of our divisions. We believe this speaks to the staying power of our value proposition, great fashions, great brands and, of course, extreme values. What I want to emphasize on this call is that as excited as we are about our business for the holiday season and fourth quarter, we are more excited about the long-term. In fact, as CEO of this company, I have never been more excited about the future of TJX. I believe our long-term opportunities are quite astounding. And before I continue, I'll turn the call over to Scott to recap our third quarter consolidated results.

Scott Goldenberg

Analyst

Thanks, Carol, and good morning, everyone. Now to recap our third quarter results. Net sales reached $6.4 billion, an 11% increase over last year. Consolidated comparable store sales were up a very strong 7%, well exceeding our expectations and achieved over a 3% increase last year. Diluted earnings per share were $0.62, a 17% increase over last year's $0.53 and above our plan. These results were achieved on top of EPS growth rates in the last 3 years of 15%, 12% and 41% in the third quarter. Foreign currency exchange rates had a neutral impact on EPS compared to a $.01 positive impact last year. In our press release today, we called out the impact of certain third quarter items on third quarter EPS and pretax margins. As we've discussed on prior sales calls, we recorded a noncash charge for pension accruals for prior periods. In addition, we recorded an adjustment to our reserve for former operations related to closed stores. Neither of these items affected our core business nor were anticipated in our original guidance. Combined, these 2 items reduced third quarter EPS by $0.03 and consolidated pretax margins by 60 basis points. The consolidated pretax margin was 11.7% for the quarter, a 20 basis points increase over last year and up 40 basis points excluding the impact of FX. So between the negative impacts of FX and the 60 basis points from the third quarter items I just mentioned, the underlying improvement was significantly higher than the numbers imply. Gross profit margin increased by 70 basis points over last year, entirely driven by merchandise margin improvement, which was partially offset by the negative impact of mark-to-market adjustments on our inventory-related hedges. SG&A expense increased by 50 basis points, primarily due to a combination of factors which, together, had…

Carol M. Meyrowitz

Analyst

Thanks, Scott. And before moving to our future opportunities, I'll recap some divisional numbers, which speak for themselves. At Marmaxx, segment profit margin was up 70 basis points; and at HomeGoods, it increased 50 basis points. Excluding the impact of foreign currency, adjusted segment profit at TJX Canada was up by 40 basis points and at TJX Europe, adjusted segment profit margin increased 360 basis points. Clearly, we are particularly pleased with our increasingly strong trends in Europe. Let me highlight the major factors for our confidence in our having a strong holiday season and fourth quarter before I get into why we are just as excited about the longer-term. First, I believe our gift-giving collections will be better than ever this holiday season; second, we are already seeing that our stores will be even fresher than last year, offering our customers a constantly changing mix of giftable merchandise; third, we'll be leveraging our global marketing abilities more than ever, getting more bank for our advertising dollars with just a modest increase in marketing spend in the fourth quarter, we started on air last night; fourth, we will be more aggressive with our Gift Card business this year; and fifth, our remodeled stores are offering customers an upgraded shopping experience, which we believe will continue to lift sales. Above all, we will be offering consumers extremely sharp values, and we are convinced consumers will continue to seek value this holiday season. Now I want to -- I'd like to address the question we hear out there about the sustainability of our sales and margin growth over the long-term. Let me start by explaining why I'm confident that our ability to grow our top and bottom line is so far from over. What we constantly think about is how to leverage…

Scott Goldenberg

Analyst

Thanks, Carol. Now to fiscal '13 guidance, beginning with the full year. We are raising -- we are further raising our guidance for the full year earnings per share to be in the range of $2.45 to $2.48, which would represent a 23% to 25% increase over the adjusted $1.99 last year. As a reminder, we have previously raised our full year EPS guidance when we announced October sales a couple of weeks ago. Let me recap the key changes versus the guidance we provided on the second quarter earnings call in August. We now estimate consolidated comp store sales growth of 5% to 6% for the full year compared to our prior guidance of 4% to 5% growth. We also expect pretax margins of 11.6% to 11.7%, which is 90 to 100 basis points higher than last year's adjusted margin of 10.7%. Now a few reminders about our full year guidance. We have a 53rd week in the fiscal '13 calendar, which we expect will benefit the full year and fourth quarter by approximately $0.07 per share. On a 52-week basis, excluding the $0.07 benefit, adjusted full year EPS guidance would be $2.38 to $2.41, up 20% to 21% over the adjusted $1.09 -- $1.99 in fiscal '12. Our plan assumes a $0.02 per share negative impact from the higher tax rate of 38.4%. Our full year outlook continues to assume fourth quarter EPS in the range of $0.72 to $0.75, up 16% to 21% over $0.62 last year. Again, this range includes an estimated $0.07 benefit from the 53rd week in the fiscal '13 calendar. On the 13-week basis for the fourth quarter excluding the $0.07 benefit, adjusted fourth quarter EPS guidance would be $0.65 to $0.68, up 5% to 10% over $0.62 in fiscal '12. To reiterate…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question today is from Kimberly Greenberger.

Kimberly C. Greenberger - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Analyst

Carol, your European business is obviously one of the shining stars in the portfolio, and I'm wondering, how you're thinking about...

Carol M. Meyrowitz

Analyst

One of them.

Kimberly C. Greenberger - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Analyst

Yes, exactly, one of them. It's hard when you have so many proud, proud children. How are you thinking about the eventual expansion of that business? And what is the time frame under which you might consider pursuing some additional countries for that business?

Carol M. Meyrowitz

Analyst

So, Kimberly, I think what Ernie and I see is so much potential in our current countries today. So we've learned how to enter new countries. So we're getting better and better at that. We know how we will position ourselves when we do go to the next country. But more importantly, we don't know where the end game is in our current European businesses, and we really have to understand that before we leap into the next country because we want to leverage all of that. And very similar to Marmaxx, we seem to keep upping our store count. We don't know when the end game is. So over time, we'll understand that better. But we're just extremely pleased with the business.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Jeffrey Stein.

Jeffrey S. Stein - Northcoast Research

Analyst

I'm wondering if you could talk a little bit about the 14% drop in inventory. Do you -- I presume you do feel comfortable with that level. But given the rate of sales growth that you've seen, do you -- or is there any concern that you might potentially have some inventory shortages in the fourth quarter?

Carol M. Meyrowitz

Analyst

Well, I think Ernie's concerned because he's trying to keep his guys home. So you may want to comment on that. I am certainly not worried about our inventory levels being too lean.

Ernie L. Herrman

Analyst

In fact, I've recently done a temperature check, and if anything, we're -- like Carol said, there's so many goods in the market, we are just really trying to hold ourselves back from buying too much too soon. So and that's from a recent -- going out, I try to stay in touch with what the buyers and merchandise managers are feeling, and that's pretty much what we're experiencing right now.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Jennifer Davis.

Jennifer M. Davis - Lazard Capital Markets LLC, Research Division

Analyst

I'm going to ask one clarification and one question. First, for clarification, Scott, could you provide us with your updated comp and segment margin assumptions for the year? And then my question is, I would agree, Carol, I don't think that you guys have too little inventory. I actually think that the store looks better with less inventory. But could you talk about what you're in-store inventory turns have been doing? I assume that they're accelerating, but kind of like where they are now versus where they were a couple of years ago?

Carol M. Meyrowitz

Analyst

Scott has those numbers, but it's pretty staggering, the changes in our inventory. And I'm glad that you noticed that we have a lot of inventories in our store because I agree with you, I think we can lean them up a bit more.

Scott Goldenberg

Analyst

So first, Jennifer, to answer your question on the store turns, if you go back a few years at the TJX level, we were turning at the 9x a year. And we've been, at the end of last year, we are at fiscal -- for our fiscal '12, we are between 10 and 11. And right now, we're trending with our current inventory projections to be approximately 12. So and that improvement has really come cross by all the divisions increasing proportionately as we've increased those turns in the last 3 to 4 years. Now to your question on the division full year guidance, so before I review that, I just want to point again all the numbers I'm giving out are on a 53-week basis. So now let me start with Marmaxx, comps for the full year are 5% to 6%, with a pretax margins of 14.4. Again, an 80 basis points improvement over last year; HomeGoods, 6 to 7 comps, pretax margins, 11.9 to 12.0, 130 to 140 basis points better than last year; TJX Canada, 13.6 to 13.7 x FX, or an 80 to 90 basis points improvement x FX -- I'm sorry, the comp, 4% for Canada; TJX Europe, 8 to 9 comp, 6.0 to 6.2 x FX, on again, 53-week basis, 360 to 380 basis points better x FX. And just to repeat what we gave out earlier, 5 to 6 comp for TJX, 90 to 100 points better on a 11.6 to 11.7 x FX.

Carol M. Meyrowitz

Analyst

Yes, one other comment I just want to make, Jennifer, in terms of the inventory, is that our biggest investment is still in IT and on supply chain. And this is where we're investing for the future. So we believe that we still have a long way to go, and we can be a lot better at executing. So again, it's a tremendous opportunity for us. But that's where our money is being invested.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Brian Tunick. Brian J. Tunick - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: One clarification first, I guess, from Scott. On the gross margins, I thought you said that all of the gains were from the merchandise margins side, so just curious why there wasn't any occupancy leverage on the 7 comp? And then maybe for Carol, if you talk about the traffic gains or the customer acquisition you talk about, where do you think the share is coming from? I think you've said previously that JCPenney, not really where you're thinking the gains were coming from. So just curious, obviously, the category is growing. You guys are the category, so just wondering where you think from other channels you guys are gaining customers both here and in Europe.

Carol M. Meyrowitz

Analyst

I think it's really across the board. And I think we are just so strong on educating the consumer in terms of the value and the brand. And really, just again, coming back to educating the consumer to what off-price is all about. So we're seeing an increase in all segments. As you all know, we've been going after the younger customer, which really bodes well for our future. And a big chunk of our new customers are younger customers. And we're pursuing this very aggressively. So that's really where the gain is coming from. But it's really across the board. It's not in any specific -- coming from any specific store or competitor.

Ernie L. Herrman

Analyst

Brian, I will just jump in. We've also talked before about how we trade fairly broadly. So what Carol is saying, we don't -- I don't think we get market share from just 1 or 2 retail specifically because we are not trying to go to a specific sector of the market with our business. So, again, we do, I think, get from many different marketplaces.

Scott Goldenberg

Analyst

And again, the last piece that you talked about, why we didn't leverage more in the occupancy -- in the gross profit margin due to occupancy. Again, a common theme here for last quarter, this quarter, are above plan results as we have higher incentive accruals that are offsetting some of the gains that we would have seen -- normally seen there.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Oliver Chen.

Nancy Hilliker

Analyst

This is Nancy Hilliker, filling in for Oliver Chen. Our question is actually back to the inventory and the micro merchandising strategies with the new technology. We're really excited about it and again, congratulations. We'd like to know a little bit about how much data you've seen so far from your investment in this IT technology, whether you've seen that product mix is across different areas or different -- and just kind of whether you plan to change the store mix depending on those popular categories? And maybe when we might see more of an impact, you said over the next few years, but maybe a little more detail on that?

Carol M. Meyrowitz

Analyst

Yes, no, I mean, we really haven't reaped the benefits of almost everything we're working on yet, and we see that in the future. But we're still all about flexibility, and we're all about off-price and we're all about the brands, and we'll continue to be that in the future. It will just help us really drive sales per store up. And it doesn't mean that we're changing our concept at all. It's just that we can really take advantage of each store and what's going on in each store. So we haven't really touched the benefits of it yet. The next few years are going to be they are investing. As we said, this year was a big year, and we started to flatten out in the future. But that's where our dollars are going.

Nancy Hilliker

Analyst

Okay. And did you say that you do expect to see maybe a better change in the store mix on different maybe categories across regions, or is that the purpose of -- part of the purpose...

Carol M. Meyrowitz

Analyst

I hope our better store mix is just because we're being better as a company. And it's easier to upgrade our mix and to be better at who we are.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Michael Baker.

Michael Baker - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst

I wanted to ask a bit more detail about what you talked the -- seeing more traffic from a younger demographic. I think in the past you've given some statistics along the lines of about 25% of U.S. shoppers have visited your stores in the last year. Can you compare that to what you see from department stores? Can you also compare that to where it may have been a year ago, what kind of growth you're seeing there? But really, the crux of my question is, where is the younger demographic? I assume that's a lower number for younger demographics, but can you talk about the growth that you're seeing there?

Carol M. Meyrowitz

Analyst

I, really, I can't compare what's going on in individual department stores and their statistics. I can only tell you that every year, we're increasing additional traffic coming to our stores. So even though that 75% number each year just gets a little bit stronger, and of that percent increase, we have higher percent of younger customers. So as our average age is, we are growing. Our average age is becoming a little bit lower. And that tells us that we're getting a much younger demographic.

Michael Baker - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst

And you think that's because of the advertising that you're putting behind it, or is that a function of different brands that you're bringing in?

Carol M. Meyrowitz

Analyst

Ernie, you want to comment?

Ernie L. Herrman

Analyst

I think it's the function of -- the merchandise is a big part of it. You can sometimes easily just think it's the advertising. I think it's multiple fronts. The advertising got a piece of it. I think the way we've -- in the advertising, try to make use of social media, certainly, that is going to appeal to younger customers. If you look at actually what we've physically done in some of the stores, we've talked about the different things in the stores, The CUBE, clearly, that would appeal to a younger customer. And then just from the -- which I wouldn't give specifics on, but some of the nature, some of the categories we've gone after also really lines up with the younger audience. So I think from all those different perspectives, we've been able to capture a younger, new customer, specifically.

Carol M. Meyrowitz

Analyst

And Michael, like everything else, we are learning how to connect with that consumer. And as we get more information, and it's the same thing as we learn from our mistakes. We're really learning how to connect with that younger customer. And I'm hoping that only improves over time. So we have some very interesting things for holiday up our sleeves to take it even further, so it's pretty exciting.

Michael Baker - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst

Yes. One other -- it sounds it. One other follow-up, if I could, just on the e-commerce business. What are your learning in the international business where you've -- where that's been rolled out? And how do you think that will help you make some of your decisions in the U.S.?

Carol M. Meyrowitz

Analyst

We're learning a lot. We're learning a lot. We're learning about categories. We're learning about how the customer responds. We're learning about value. We're learning about how far we can take that. I can go on and on, but as everything else in this company, we leverage each other, and we learn. And that's why we put that in place. It's small, but we're learning, and it's going to really help us in the long-term.

Michael Baker - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst

It gives you confidence that e-commerce will work in the off-price channel, though?

Ernie L. Herrman

Analyst

Yes.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Daniel Hofkin. Daniel Hofkin - William Blair & Company L.L.C., Research Division: Just one kind of short-term oriented question, which is, I believe last year in the fourth quarter, you had particularly strong sales. And some of it came, I guess, from moving some relatively more promoted winter apparel, for example, so the gross margin comparison seems not as challenging, for example, as the sales comparison for -- would you tend to agree with that? And I guess, the follow-up related to that is, if you were to generate an upside in the fourth quarter this year, would you think -- where do you think the biggest opportunity could be? Is it more sales, or is it merchandise margin?

Carol M. Meyrowitz

Analyst

I would hope it's sales. I mean, it's always we're being conservative, hopefully. We're going out with a 0 to 2 for the quarter, and a 0 to 2 for December. Our trend has obviously been stronger than that, and we're pretty excited about our mix. We think as every year, we get better and better at it, so we are hoping that there's certainly upside on the sale, but we will see.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Richard Jaffe. Richard Ellis Jaffe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc., Research Division: Just a follow-up on your comment regarding remodeled stores. Can you give us a sense of how many stores have been done, the pace of remodels for 2013? The impact it has for the business, either quantitatively or qualitatively? And the costs involved in a store remodel?

Carol M. Meyrowitz

Analyst

Okay. I will give you the number, but we don't really discuss the increases quantitatively. We haven't -- we have not put those numbers out. But this year, we did a little over 300. At the end of the year, we'll update next year. We probably have pretty similar next year. And we have some other in-store initiatives, even in our remodeled stores where we are finished with stage 1, we certainly have some ideas to stage 2 and 3 for the future. So I don't want people to think that we remodeled them, we're all done, and that's the end of it. I think we have a little over 75% of Marmaxx done to date?

Scott Goldenberg

Analyst

Yes, that's correct, Carol. And almost 70%, as we -- the last few years, big emphasis on Marmaxx and now we're, this year or in the last year, we focused again on Canada as well, and almost 70% of the Canadian stores will be remodeled to the new prototype. And again, that's on top with what Carol said, the 339 we expect to do this year's on top of almost 400 in the 2 previous years.

Carol M. Meyrowitz

Analyst

So understand, this is remodel, number one; secondly, we have -- next year, obviously, we plan it in our model, it's in our model. But we constantly see things that we can improve. And our goal is to just keep driving those sales up in each individual store. Richard Ellis Jaffe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc., Research Division: And the cost per store, the investment in the store remodels?

Carol M. Meyrowitz

Analyst

We don't -- Richard, we don't give those numbers out. But it's, again, it's in the model. And it's in our capital expense and our expense.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Omar Saad.

Omar Saad - ISI Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Could you talk about, a little bit, how you're thinking has evolved, or if it's evolved in terms of moving beyond some of the core categories where you've obviously excelled apparels, footwear, accessories, home. Have you started at all to think about how to leverage the business in your existing distribution and the framework you've set up with the buyer network in categories, some of the other great categories that are out there like beauty, cosmetics, skincare, I don't know if there's other ways to think about your business model long-term, where it could go?

Carol M. Meyrowitz

Analyst

Well, I think all the categories you just talked about are in our stores. So the idea, obviously, is we have the most flexible floor in the world and any category that's hot, we're going to go after. So if you look in our stores today, and we don't talk about it, again, we have many new ideas, new initiative, and we're open to any category. As you all know, we can take a whole department off the floor 1 day and put something else on it. That's what's so wonderful about our business. So, hopefully, we're ahead of it all. And I think we are.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Evren Kopelman.

Evren Dogan Kopelman - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

Analyst

Carol, given the long-term store potential numbers you highlighted, can you share your thoughts on the square footage growth space? Would you want to accelerate towards high-single digits there? And what are the constraints and considerations?

Carol M. Meyrowitz

Analyst

Well, I think we target anywhere between 4% and 5% square footage growth and, hopefully, TJX will keep growing way beyond when I'm in the 80s and 90s. But I think our business is all about finding new ways to continue to grow at a really good steady pace and make sure that we're bringing those dollars to the bottom line. So there really isn't a tremendous need for us to start to go 6%, 7%, 8%. We'll talk in the future more about e-commerce and what that means, but we just see that how do we continue 10, 15 years from now to grow this business at the same kind of level. And that's what we're excited about.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Paul Lejuez.

Paul Lejuez - Nomura Securities Co. Ltd., Research Division

Analyst

Carol, you mentioned department stores entering off-price. Just wondering if you're seeing anything from a competitive perspective that kind of makes you call that out, or you're seeing them gain any traction in any particular regions or impact any part of your business?

Carol M. Meyrowitz

Analyst

Not really. I mean, we sit with some -- the Rack, and kind of love them as a partner. Most of them -- we sit next to all our competitors, be it Ross, Burlington. So we like it. It's a mecca, it brings people there. It's not a negative to us in any way.

Paul Lejuez - Nomura Securities Co. Ltd., Research Division

Analyst

Got you. And then just one follow-up. As you turn inventories faster, are there any parts of your organization that you would consider strained and maybe in need of more investment, or has that groundwork already been established, which is allowing you to turn faster?

Carol M. Meyrowitz

Analyst

Well, that's our investment. When we talk about talent and we talk about systems and IT, systems and logistics, that's where all our investment is going. So we've worked very hard the last many years to increase our talent pool and our bench strength, and that is where our dollars are going. So we're, hopefully, ahead of it and setting ourselves up for the future. That's why we think long-term, we are -- it's an interesting business because obviously, we're worried about tomorrow. We run and gun every day. We have all that flexibility, but we also want to look many years out and say what can we be, and are we setting ourselves up for that. So we do a lot of short-term, medium- and long-term planning.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Dana Telsey.

Dana Lauren Telsey - Telsey Advisory Group LLC

Analyst

Couple of quick things, can you talk a little bit about the enhancements that you've been making? The new stores have done great, the marketing investments are paying off. Are there more opportunities for more cost to come out in new stores and generate higher returns? And as you see average price point within the store, just as your customer mix is changing, could the average price point move -- could we see it move higher over time?

Carol M. Meyrowitz

Analyst

I want -- we want to give extreme value. So I'll never sit there -- our average price point today and our average ticket is pretty flat. And we love that because what we think we have done is upgraded our mix, but given the customer even better value. So Dana, my goal wouldn't be to go and increase our ticket. My goal would be to increase the mix and making a better mix and still give the customer absolutely incredible value. In terms of leveraging costs, we want to drive sales, so our goal is not to pull out the cost of servicing our customers in the stores. You want to service your customers and you want to keep doing a better job. But with that, where we want to invest is to drive sales even harder. So we're leveraged by driving sales a lot harder. We still have our cost initiatives in place, we're still going after a certain goal, and we'll talk about it at the end of the year, as we always do, and there are still places where we feel that we can cut a bit. But it's not going to be at the expense of the customer for our in-store service.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Mark Montagna.

Mark K. Montagna - Avondale Partners, LLC, Research Division

Analyst

Just a follow-up question regarding the hurricane impact. I'm wondering if you are seeing any impact on rising transportation costs in the area impacted by the hurricane. And also, have you seen an uptick in opportunistic buys?

Carol M. Meyrowitz

Analyst

Well, no, we haven't really had any increases in the costs in terms of the logistics piece of it. We -- what can I say? When things are disruptive, it usually does benefit TJX. I don't really want to go into detail there, but we will say, I just -- there is a -- from a vendor perspective and from certain areas of the country, it has been more difficult for people to move goods around, so that usually yields opportunity for us, but we'll see.

Ernie L. Herrman

Analyst

I will just say that we were seeing the availability probably building a little even before the hurricane. So it gets -- so what happens is, you don't necessarily know is now there's even more today. I don't know how much of that is hurricane or just the trend from seeing more availability before the hurricane. So just a lot of goods out there.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Howard Tubin.

Howard Tubin - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Analyst

Just be curious to hear your thoughts on the overall promotional environment, like what you're seeing out there maybe relative to last year and what you're hearing is going to happen for the holiday season?

Carol M. Meyrowitz

Analyst

I think every year, we hear -- every year, things get more promotional. Every year, you hear things get more promotional. And I'm going to come back to we will maintain our gap between whatever the prices are out there to give extreme value to the customer. And that's what's wonderful about our business. It's always that the gap between where everyone else is and where we are. And Ernie and his team are being very methodical, again, as he expressed, there's so much, so many goods and brands out there that we're excited about that our job is really to do it right, and keep our guys home a bit and buy it right and give the customer outrageous value. So we don't get ourselves caught up in worrying about what's promotional out there. We worry about giving our customer the best value we can.

Ernie L. Herrman

Analyst

I'll tell you, Howard, one thing, we've talked about with this earlier on the call with the fast turns, and Carol was talking about how we watch the environment on that. The fast turns and the closer in buying we're doing allows us even better to handle any type of promotional environment changes. So again, it goes back to the model is so flexible, and we're even a little bit more flexible in closing than we've been in the past. So that really helps us with any type of change in the promotional activity around us to ensure that we're always given the out-the-door values that we should be.

Carol M. Meyrowitz

Analyst

I mean we're -- again, we were able to buy a week before Christmas and get it in. And that's what's so wonderful about it. We want our guys out there, 7 days before Christmas, go shop.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Marni Shapiro.

Marni Shapiro - The Retail Tracker

Analyst

I have 2 quick questions. On the marketing you've talked about for the fourth quarter, I was just curious if you were planning on spending more this year versus last year and if the impressions were going to be up this year versus last year? And then can you just touch on -- you've talked about briefly the Q, but I think you mentioned the runway. But can you just talk about some of the smaller segments or some not-so-small segments, like shoes, the footwear segment, which has been a big push on your side; and then personal care and jewelry, which personal care, in particular, looks fantastic in your stores, just any insights there?

Carol M. Meyrowitz

Analyst

Marni, we don't talk about our individual categories and initiatives. That's our secret sauce, so to speak.

Marni Shapiro - The Retail Tracker

Analyst

You're still happy with those segments, though?

Carol M. Meyrowitz

Analyst

We're very happy. We got a few things up our sleeves so. Our marketing were up slightly on the cost and our impressions are up. They're up about 10% in Marmaxx.

Marni Shapiro - The Retail Tracker

Analyst

I love when you say you have something up your sleeve.

Carol M. Meyrowitz

Analyst

So Ernie has a couple of marketing numbers. You want to...

Ernie L. Herrman

Analyst

Yes. So Marni, basically, what it is, is our TV impressions are up by, as Carol said, pretty significantly. Overall, our impressions are up only a little bit, but we're strategically going where we think the money is going to give us a better payback on the messaging that we're trying to get out there. You have also asked about the spend, yes, in the fourth quarter, our spend is up. We won't give the exact number, but it's up a decent amount, I would say, for the fourth quarter.

Carol M. Meyrowitz

Analyst

So I hope everybody -- we went on TV yesterday, I think everyone's going to be blown away when they see our TV ads, our campaign, because we are really excited about it. We think it's quite breakthrough.

Marni Shapiro - The Retail Tracker

Analyst

Have you changed any of the shows that you're putting the television ads on to target some of the younger customers that you're talking about?

Carol M. Meyrowitz

Analyst

We are across the board, and we're very strategically placed to take full advantage.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Roxanne Meyer.

Roxanne Meyer - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

Analyst

Carol, I appreciated your proactiveness and comments in addressing why you think comps and margin growth is going to continue over the long-term. So just a follow-up on that, as we head into 2013 and anniversary exceptionally strong comp and margin growth, how do you feel about your ability to grow margins if your comp was to moderate to a low-single digit level as you're guiding to in 4Q? I mean, it's clear that there's a long-term merchandise margin opportunities through many of the initiatives that you've laid out. But how much room do you think there is for merchandise margin in '13? And how does your fixed cost leverage point look like?

Carol M. Meyrowitz

Analyst

We'll talk about that at the year-end call when we talk about next year. But every year, you know what our model is, it's the 10% to 13% growth, and we certainly strive to beat that. And the guys have a lot of things in place, and we're certainly working on next year. And we're pretty excited about it. More to come.

Roxanne Meyer - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

Analyst

Okay, great. And just a quick follow-up. Just seeing that you've already achieved the peak margin in Europe in the third quarter, how do you feel about the potential for upside to your targets in Europe longer-term?

Carol M. Meyrowitz

Analyst

Again, I think in the past, we've talked about peak margins in Marmaxx quite a few times, and we kept beating it. I think in the last 3 years, we've increased their segment profit of 400 basis points. So we don't know the end game in Europe. And Ernie was just over there, I was just over there. I think the 2 of us get a little giddy at the possibilities and the opportunities. So I don't know what the end game is. I just know that we see a lot, and we're very excited about it. So we'll use the work peak today, hopefully, next year, we'll use a new peak.

Operator

Operator

And our final question today is from Laura Champine.

Laura A. Champine - Canaccord Genuity, Research Division

Analyst

Guys, got a question about how you're thinking about the incremental costs from health care legislation next year and what the scenarios are and whether or not you think that will be a material impact on results next year?

Carol M. Meyrowitz

Analyst

Yes. I don't think it's going to be material, and we have it baked into our plans, so...

Scott Goldenberg

Analyst

Yes. Again, we have -- we're certainly staying on top of it. And as Carol said it, we don't think it's a material amount, and we'll certainly address it more in the February conference call.

Carol M. Meyrowitz

Analyst

Thanks, everyone, and we look forward to reporting our fourth quarter. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And this does conclude today's conference. You may disconnect at this time.