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Titan Machinery Inc. (TITN)

Q3 2015 Earnings Call· Wed, Dec 10, 2014

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day and welcome to the Titan Machinery’s Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2015 Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. John Mills of ICR. Please go ahead, sir.

John Mills

Management

Thank you. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Titan Machinery third quarter fiscal 2015 earnings conference call. On the call today from the company are David Meyer, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Peter Christianson, President; and Mark Kalvoda, Chief Financial Officer. By now, everyone should have access to the earnings release for the fiscal third quarter ended October 31, 2014, which went out this morning at approximately 6:45 a.m. Eastern Time. If you have not received the release, it is available on the Investor Relations portion of Titan's Web site at titanmachinery.com. This call is being webcast, and a replay will be available on the company's Web site as well. In addition, we are providing a presentation to accompany today's prepared remarks. We suggest you access the presentation now by going to Titan's Web site and clicking on the Investor Relations tab. The presentation is directly below the webcast information in the middle of the page. Before we begin, we'd like to remind everyone that the prepared remarks contain forward-looking statements, and management may make additional forward-looking statements in response to your questions. The statements do not guarantee future performance and therefore, undue reliance should not be placed upon them. These statements are based on current expectations of management and involve inherent risks and uncertainties, including those identified in the Risk Factor section of Titan's most recently filed annual report on Form 10-K. These risk factors contain more detailed discussion of the factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in any forward-looking statements. Titan assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement that may be made in today's release or call. Lastly, due to the number of participants on the call today, we ask that you keep your question period to one or two questions and then rejoin the queue. We expect the call will last approximately 45 minutes. David Meyer will provide highlights for the Company's third quarter results and a general update on the Company's business and Peter Christianson will discuss the Company's international overview and segment operating results. And next, Mark Kalvoda will discuss the Company’s financial results in more detail and the fiscal 2015 annual revenue, net income, earnings per share guidance and non-GAAP operating cash flow guidance ranges, along with outlook and modeling assumptions. At the conclusion of our prepared remarks, we will open the call to take your questions. Now, I'd like to introduce the Company's Chairman and CEO, Mr. David Meyer. Go ahead, David.

David Meyer

Management

Thank you, John. Good morning everyone. Welcome to our third quarter fiscal 2015 earnings conference call. As John mentioned, to help you follow in today’s prepared remarks we provided a slide presentation which you can access on Investor Relations portions of our Web site at titanmachinery.com If you turn to Slide 3, you’ll see our third quarter financial results. Revenue of $493 million, primarily reflecting lower agricultural equipment sales in North America. Adjusted pretax income was $6.2 million and adjusted earnings per diluted share was $0.14. On today’s call, we will discuss the ongoing headwinds we are facing in our agricultural segment and the improvements in our construction business. We will also provide an update on our international segment discussing the challenges in these markets as well as an update on our initiatives we’re implementing to improve this segment of our business. Mark will provide an update on the progress we are making in our inventory reduction plan as well as a revised annual fiscal 2015 guidance. Now I’d like to provide some color for you today on our agriculture and construction industries in which we operate. Peter will provide color on the industry within our international segment. On Slide 4 is an overview of the agriculture industry. The Ag industry and our footprint had favorable conditions to complete the fall harvest. In many markets yields were higher than grower expectations. November wise we report lower corn production estimates for the year from its prior projection, however the current estimate continues to be for record corn production this year and large forecasted ending stocks which reflected in the recent lower commodity prices. USDA report which was updated at the end of November adjusted a projected net farm income to be down 23.4% in calendar year 2014 from their previous estimate…

Peter Christianson

Management

Thanks David. On Slide 6, we have an overview of the industry in our international segment which includes stores in Bulgaria, Romania, Serbia and Ukraine. The fall crop harvest has been completed and the winter crops are in good condition throughout the majority of our footprint. However lower global commodity prices and the tight credit environment continue to impact customers in all of our international markets. These factors have led to higher industry wide equipment inventory levels, resulting in equipment margin pressure as we strive to achieve our revenue targets in this segment. Offsetting some of the challenges the European Union’s Subvention Funds are becoming available in some of our markets, with Romania having access to these funds in the third quarter of this year. The new government in Bulgaria is providing stability to that market and we anticipate Bulgaria to have access to the Subvention Fund in calendar year 2015. As you may recall, the subvention funds are monies of the European Union has budgeted over a five year period to support investment in agricultural production in the developing markets of Eastern Europe, providing up to 50% of the cost of qualifying new equivalent purchases. In Ukraine, the geopolitical and financial turmoil continue to negatively impact our customers and operations. Limited credit availability, rising interest rates and the devaluation of the local currency are affecting all businesses throughout the country. Although the Ukrainian farmers have had good yield this year, they are limited in their ability to finance purchases of equipment. On slide seven, we have an update of the important key initiatives we spoke about on our second quarter call and are implementing to improve our international results and account for the current environment in this segment. We have identified the actions to support these initiatives and expect…

Mark Kalvoda

Management

Thanks Peter. Turning to Slide 12, our total revenue for the fiscal 2015 third quarter was $493 million a decrease of 16.1% compared to last year. Equipment sales decreased 22.2% quarter over quarter reflecting the Ag headwinds David discussed in his remarks, partially offset by improvements in construction and growth in our international business. Our part sales were essentially flat in the quarter, while service revenue increased 4.3%. Overall, we are pleased with the stability of our parts and service business in the face of a challenging Ag environment. Our rental and other revenue increased 7.7% in the third quarter, reflecting an increase in rentals of inventory, primarily from heavy industrial units such as scrapers, cranes and excavators which are not part of our designated rental fleet. This was partially offset by a decrease in our rental fleet dollar utilization to 33.6% for the current quarter compared to 36.9% in the same period last year. The decreased utilization was partially due to the lower oil prices affecting rental demand in our oil producing markets as well as lost rental revenues due to the repositioning of rental equipment from recent store closings as part of our construction realignment implemented earlier this year. On Slide 13, our gross profit for the quarter was $85 million and our gross profit margin was 17.2%, an increase of 130 basis points compared to the same quarter last year. The margin increase is due to a favorable shift in product mix as our higher margin parts, service and rental and other are a larger part of our gross profit. The improvement in gross margins despite lower revenue reflects the stability of our parts and service business, which is increasingly important during the current soft period in the Ag cycle. Our operating expenses as a percentage of…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. And we will take our first question Rick Nelson with Stephens.

Rick Nelson

Analyst

To ask about the margin pressures in the equipment category sequentially and year-over-year, it sounds like constructions margins are better it appears as if the Ag segment and if you could comment on what’s happening with new and used equipment margins in Ag.

Mark Kalvoda

Management

Hi Rick, Mark here. Yes the pressure is definitely much more so on the Ag side. If you recall last year construction was experiencing kind of a glut in the market of equipment inventory. It rebounded nicely from those levels and on the Ag side as were we’re seeing more of an oversupply of inventory out there in the market today. And it's much more on the used side currently than on the new. The margins is being maintained fairly well on the new. But the used is where we are experiencing margin compression.

Rick Nelson

Analyst

Thanks for that color Mark. The guidance for equipment margins appears to be a pick up from the third quarter and the year to date, can you just how you rationalize those inventory reduction plan with higher margins in the fourth quarter and equipment.

Mark Kalvoda

Management

Well as you know throughout the year we do a lower of cost per market break down on a monthly basis. So as the market has come down, we're adjusting our used inventory throughout the year not any one particular quarter at all. And typically there might be a little bit of a pickup in the fourth quarter, there is not much in there but that has to do with some year-end manufacturing [indiscernible] that typically get chewed up in the fourth quarter which caused a little bit of strength in that fourth quarter.

Rick Nelson

Analyst

Thank you for that. Also I would like to ask, you are sitting on a big, big pile of cash $110 million in cash, [indiscernible] trading below tangible book value. Your appetite for buying your own stock back versus borrowing others and as a valuations in the private market meaningful discounts to their tangible book value.

Peter Christianson

Management

Well Rick we constantly have discussions with our board regarding our capital allocations and we continue to evaluate all options on an ongoing basis. And we understand your question pretty well.

Operator

Operator

And we’ll take our next question from Larry De Maria with William Blair.

Larry De Maria

Analyst · William Blair.

Hey thanks. Good morning. Couple of things, you did Ag profits about 14 in change million and [indiscernible] this for the quarter. How do we think of your Ag dealers now in terms how many are actually losing money I know we tend to look at the total enterprise. I am curious how many stores are making up those profits versus how many are losing money at this point?

Peter Christianson

Management

Well don’t break that out Larry but we do have some stores that are performing very well and we continue, we have some non performing stores with specific interest and more resources at those stores from a number of fronts. So we don’t break that out by store.

Larry De Maria

Analyst · William Blair.

But is it a handful of stores making money and vast majority of Ag stores are now losing money? How do we think about that because that’s obviously relevant if we go into next year?

Peter Christianson

Management

I would say we have a good number of our stores are doing very well.

Larry De Maria

Analyst · William Blair.

Okay and then on the used inventory expect to be flat in Q4. I guess normally I think it would potentially even move up given the volume of trade-ins, and year to date it's down 54 million. Are we assuming that the value declines that the volume equipment goes up and just curious about this for example the $54 million decline? How much is volume versus how much is lower actually used prices and how you are carrying it given the way Mark just said lower of cost to market and then how long does it take for the inventory in the field not just yours but the industry to work through with this. Do you think it gets concluded by next year or couple of quarters or in other words how long will it take for the industry towards the inventory and is lower inventory value more a function of a lower price or volume?

Peter Christianson

Management

There is a lot to ask there Larry. So I will try and take part of it. So one of the questions I think you asked is how we’re going to maintain kind of a flat used inventory leveling for the fourth quarter. A lot of that is as opposed to like previous years we’ve done a lot of more roles at the end of the year in previous years where we’ve taken in a lot of used inventory, a lot of used trades. We expect that to be down so the amount of incoming use is going to be quite a bit less than what we’ve had in the past. And we do expect to diligently continue to move through the used inventory as well to aggressively selling it out there in the market. As far as like number of units, I wasn’t sure if you’re asking about new, used.

Larry De Maria

Analyst · William Blair.

[Indiscernible] the $54 million decline year-to-date, how much of that is volume? How much of that is the price of the used, so in other words, the actual volume of your used inventory may not account that much, but are you writing down the price enough, is that why it’s going down?

Peter Christianson

Management

It’s a combination of both, but it’s more so on the number of units side than it is on the price side. But the pricing certainly has come down of the valuation, per unit has come down, because of what I alluded to earlier on the lower of cost and market adjustments that we’ve had. But more of it’s on the number of units.

Larry De Maria

Analyst · William Blair.

That’s what I figured. And then just for you guys, how long -- I know your work into the inventory has been challenging, but what do you think about the industry inventory and particularly in your region obviously? But broader, how long will it take for the industry to wind down this inventory? And is it in a very similar situation to you guys? And that’s all thanks.

Peter Christianson

Management

Well you’re seeing different inventory levels out there and then different competitors have different issues. We’ve been working pretty hard on this probably going back almost 18 months now, we feel good about certain segments. We feel pretty good about used combined inventory, so as you see less new being sold you’re definitely going to have these as Mark said less used coming in. Some of these customers that were possibly buying late model used equipments are buying new equipment now with the economy trade now to move them back to used equipment, so just to get back into that somewhat of a normal cycle is what we’re going into and be probably less [indiscernible] more late model used buyers out there and that moved some of these little guys in new buyers and I think it will be managed through the system, I believe all of the used industry are going to do somewhat similar actions Larry.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Tyler Etten with Piper Jaffray.

Tyler Etten

Analyst · Piper Jaffray.

First, what is your timing expectations for Section 179? And is that factored into the $200 million reduction in inventory for the fourth quarter?

David Meyer

Management

I think when we put our guidance together for the fourth quarter, we did -- are forecasting for the fourth quarter. We did anticipate everything that we can as we anticipated that it would come through at the backend of this year and would be available here for the end of December. That being said, as we’ve said in the past we don’t think it’s a huge factor out there. We think it’s more based on the profitability of our customers rather than specifically some of these tax incentives out there, but it would be part -- it is kind of part of what we’ve put in there for our forecast for our EPS range as well as our inventory reduction estimates.

Tyler Etten

Analyst · Piper Jaffray.

And do you guys have any expectations for that next year?

David Meyer

Management

We’ll come out with our forecast for next year on our fourth quarter call. No comments from us at this time.

Tyler Etten

Analyst · Piper Jaffray.

And then last question would be, what do you think -- how bad do you think the slowdown on rental would be because of the oil pipeline and oil exploration slowdown because of energy prices?

Peter Christianson

Management

Well, if you look at the oil impact our stores, we’ve got a pretty diversified footprint and also we’re probably impacted probably at 10% of our stores and of that it’s still a fairly fast pace is going on in the oil exploration. So I mean it’s got some impact, but I would not say it's significant.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Joe Mondillo with Sidoti.

Joe Mondillo

Analyst · Sidoti.

So my first question just regarding the construction segment. And I just wanted to clarify -- so the year-over-year same-store sales did slowdown and you dropped your same-store sales guidance for the year. On top of that from the second quarter to the third quarter, despite seeing year-over-year improvements in profitability, we saw flatness sequentially. So just wondering, is that all due to the rental? Or was there some disappointment on the new construction sales as well?

David Meyer

Management

I think part of it is, if you look at the comps from last year, the same-store increases in the first half of the year last year were negative down to the tune of 6%, 7% and they flipped a positive in the third and fourth quarter. So a part of it I think we’re up against tougher comps. And there is some of this impact with some of our stores. Now, it’s about four of our stores that are up here in the Bakken that have more of that oil play, a little bit down in Colorado maybe, but its four stores. So that is part of the reason why we pulled it down, but again it’s only about 10% of our stores and the construction side that’s being affected by the lower oil.

Joe Mondillo

Analyst · Sidoti.

So what about the sequential flatness in terms of profitability? Because that was my biggest surprise and I know you guys were expecting to be profitable for the year, probably unlikely at this point given what you saw on the third quarter. So in terms of the third quarter not really seeing that strength that you usually see in the third quarter on a profitability wise, can you comment more on that?

David Meyer

Management

Yes we did expect a little more and I think part of it was in that rental that came in less than anticipated. When we do our rental fleet the depreciation on our rental fleet during the year is seasonally adjusted, so there is a heavier load of depreciation that happens in the third quarter because of higher expectations on the fleet. So that was certainly part of the drag on a third quarter and why it wasn’t sequentially better than the second quarter for the construction segment.

Joe Mondillo

Analyst · Sidoti.

And then just on the Ag side of the business, wondering, so the overall macro assumption is that acreage is going to be down by 4 million or 5 million acres next year. In terms of your footprint, what are you guys looking at? Where your footprint is in terms of acreage planted next year?

David Meyer

Management

Well I actually think we see acreage going up, there was quite a bit of [indiscernible] this year in some of our markets and then in addition to that there is a lot of CRP acres that are going out of CRP and back in their production. So we actually see increased acres in majority of our footprint.

Joe Mondillo

Analyst · Sidoti.

So overall acreage in the country will be down mostly likely but you’re saying within your footprint acreage should be up.

David Meyer

Management

Typically all the land gets farmed, so there has been -- land has been broke up, as land has been taken out of [indiscernible] during the production, the CRP coming up and you may see some shifts between away from corn and other crops and things like that but overall I believe that production is going to be up due to predominantly a lot of land coming out of CRPs and also some pretty favorable weather conditions in the fall and stuff and the moisture situations to minimize some of these preventive plant acres.

Joe Mondillo

Analyst · Sidoti.

And does that production match up with what USDA is projecting?

David Meyer

Management

Well I guess it's probably a little early in the game for that but I believe that we’ve seen in our footprint which we’re pretty close to that acres are going to be up.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Mig Dobre with Robert Baird.

Mig Dobre

Analyst · Robert Baird.

It’s Mig Dobre actually. Mark this question is for you may be you can help me understand the math here. But when I look at your rental business guidance you lowered the utilization goal by 250 basis points at the midpoint. Running rough math here this is basically $4 million worth of rental revenue. This is a pretty big swing, and I am trying to understand how much of this is directly related to energy versus some of the inefficiencies that you mentioned earlier because you also say that only 10% of the stores are exposed to energy. So in theory this shouldn’t be that big of an impact yet the numbers work out the way it is.

Mark Kalvoda

Management

Yes, so as I mentioned on the call, what we talked about was relocating of our fleet, so when we closed these stores earlier in the year and there was a little bit of a tail on this that it still kind of helped the second quarter yet as contracts were still out there on this rental fleet. But as we move these fleets to our other locations, there was some what I would call kind of dead time in there where there wasn’t the utilization as we repositioned them into other markets. I don’t have the breakdown of like how much each one contributed to that, but I would say both of them were notable in creating that assumption change on a rental fleet utilization.

Mig Dobre

Analyst · Robert Baird.

Sorry to push you on this, something has changed within the past quarter that led to this adjustment in guidance. You knew that you shut down stores and you’re going to have to relocate equipment when you issued the guidance previously, so was it something new that occurred in terms of relocating this equipment or what changed?

Mark Kalvoda

Management

So I think part of it was certainly the oil thing changed, there is a significant decrease in oil and therefore some of the activity in oil that definitely happened after we gave guidance a quarter ago. And the other thing perhaps we underestimated some of this dead time as we reposition these assets, these rental fleet assets in some of our other locations. So it’s really the combination.

Mig Dobre

Analyst · Robert Baird.

Then if we are to switch over to Ag, just broadly speaking as I see you cut your inventory reduction target and I guess I am trying to figure out here as to why that is the case because my understanding is that if you really wanted to, you could move inventory by simply reducing prices, so I am presuming that you are trying not to do that, which I am wondering does this shift earnings risk to next year? How do you think about inventory reduction going forward and what that implies for next year?

David Meyer

Management

Well I'd say, I think a lot of that's coming from possibly the new side of the business is just reflected in what we saw in some of our decreases in revenues that we had earlier anticipated that weren't there in the third quarter, so a lot of it you can see where we are making strong strides on the used with $50 million some decrease that we have done on used. So we are trying to at the same time reduce inventory but then also realize realistic margin structure.

Mig Dobre

Analyst · Robert Baird.

Then last question from me and I don't know if you want to answer this or not but John Deere basically called out North American Ag declines in the 25% to 30% range as we look into '15. And I guess I am wondering do you have reason to think otherwise given your -- what you know of your end markets in your geographic exposure.

David Meyer

Management

Well I think there are some pretty smart people out there making some of these forecast from all of the manufacturers I think they are pretty well aligned. So I think definitely when you see pullback in commodity prices, you know they have rebounded a little bit though. I think these manufacturers and their modal of inventory is in this pipeline now and what was produced in the fourth quarter, and they probably have pretty realistic expectations but I also believe that as you see the business as they get into the first two three quarters of the year that I think there is some flexible built schedule that can be adjusted on that but I think going into this year, I think we have to take appreciation for what the OEMs are seeing on their forecast and manage our business accordingly.

Operator

Operator

Our last question comes from Steve Dyer with Craig Hallum Capital Group.

Greg Palm

Analyst

Hey good morning it's Greg Palm on for Steve, thanks for taking our questions. Following up on the margin pressure in Q3, just curious what the impact of those monthly write downs you paid were versus just more addressed inventory sell down? A little color would be helpful. Thanks.

David Meyer

Management

Yes, we don't disclose the specific numbers involved there but I think I commented in the past, in a typical part of this cycle our new equipment margins would be higher than our used. I am sorry, our used would be higher than the new and given some of these lower custom market right downs it is pulling that the used below what the new is out there. So I mean it's definitely a part of what's creating the lower equipment margins out there.

Greg Palm

Analyst

And then not little early but qualitatively, how should be thinking about inventory levels for fiscal year '16.

David Meyer

Management

Well I think for the starting point of it, you can see where we are going to end this year given our $200 million reduction and there is some of the expectations by the OEMs out there and everything like that and if that comes to fruition I would say that we'd pull our inventory down even further than where we are ending it this year. So it would certainly average much less than what we averaged this year as far as our overall inventory levels. And we'd probably be going down in total inventory as we go throughout the year.

Greg Palm

Analyst

Okay. And then just last one curious what you are hearing from the OEMs, what is C&H doing to help you guys, is there any incentives there for cash? Thanks.

Peter Christianson

Management

Well I think if you see some of these publicized on the used equipment side, I see some really attractive financing programs, interest free periods of time and also aggressively targeting the used equipment out there from the financing side to get us to the pipeline. So I guess again C&H is definitely wants to be competitive in the marketplace and focused on gaining market share and helping the dealers move their inventories through the pipeline.

David Meyer

Management

Okay. That's the end of the question. So I want to thank you everyone for your interest in Titan and we look forward to update you on our progress on our next call. Have a good day.