Jeff Farber
Analyst · Buckingham Research
Thank you, Jack. Good morning, everyone. For the second quarter, we generated net income of $74 million or $1.79 per fully diluted share compared with $99.3 million or $2.31 per share in the second quarter last year. After-tax operating income was $77.7 million or $1.88 per diluted share compared with $76.2 million or $1.77 per diluted share in the prior year quarter. Our combined ratio was 96.1% in the second quarter of 2019 compared with 95.5% in the prior year quarter. Current accident year catastrophe losses totaled $66.6 million in the quarter or 6% of earned premium. This is a very solid outcome given an active catastrophe experience for the industry in the quarter. Our efforts to diversify and manage concentrations over the years are clearly demonstrating benefits. We also recorded favorable prior year catastrophe reserve development of $7 million. Excluding catastrophes, our combined ratio was 90.7% versus 89.9% in the prior year quarter. The increase was driven by higher current accident year losses, partially offset by lower expenses in the current quarter. The expense ratio improved 50 basis points to 31.5% from the prior year quarter as we continued to benefit from the leverage on our fixed expenses from premium growth and the timing of certain items. At the same time, we continued to fund investments in our businesses from expense reductions across our organization. We remain committed to deliver the expected expense ratio improvement of 20 basis points moving forward. I will review loss ratio drivers as part of the discussion of our two main businesses. As a reminder, we increased our loss selections in our auto businesses in the third and fourth quarters of last year. Therefore, the second quarter comparisons between years may not be as helpful this quarter. Our 2018 full year ratio may be a more useful point of comparison. Starting with Personal Lines, we delivered a combined ratio, excluding catastrophes, of 88.9%, down from 89.6% in the same period last year. The improvement was driven by lower unfavorable prior year reserve development and reduced expenses. Our Personal Lines current accident year loss ratio, ex cat, increased 0.9 points from the prior year to 61%. Our homeowners' current accident year loss ratio, ex cat, of 47.8% was in line with the prior year quarter. Personal Auto current accident year loss ratio, ex cats, was 69.1%, slightly below full year 2018. 2019 claims activity remains quite favorable. However, we are maintaining our cautious view with respect to auto bodily injury loss selections given some unfavorable development we continue to see in bodily injury coverages. We achieved rate increases in this coverage of 9%, while the overall Personal Auto rate increased 5%. Personal Lines net written premiums increased 6.1% in the quarter driven by higher rates, stable retention and robust new business growth. As Jack referenced, this is a testament to our strong market position with agents and our differentiated product offerings, coupled with selected new agency appointments. Moving to Commercial Lines, our combined ratio, excluding catastrophes, was 91.1% in the quarter, up from 90% in the prior year quarter. The increase was driven by higher current accident year losses, partially offset by favorable development and lower expenses. During the quarter, we recorded favorable prior year reserve development of $4 million or 0.6 points of the combined ratio. This was driven primarily by continued favorability in workers' comp. Our chosen mix of smaller-sized accounts, lower risk profile insured’s and generally favorable industry loss experience continues to drive our excellent performance. In addition, CMP prior-period activity was favorable. We also experienced some unfavorable development in Commercial Auto, as well as minor adjustments in other Commercial Lines. Our Commercial Lines current accident year loss ratio, excluding catastrophes, increased 1.6 points to 58.1% compared to the prior year quarter, which was driven, in part, by some large losses in our Marine business. Despite large loss activity in the quarter, we remain very satisfied with the longer-term profitability and performance of our Marine segment. We are one of the top players in the market based both on the size of our book as well as the caliber of our underwriting talent. The business continues to be very profitable, and we will continue to support its growth with capital as needed. Autos current accident year, ex cat, loss ratio of 69.7% improved compared to the full year 2018 ratio as a result of substantial earned rate increases and a more favorable mix from our underwriting activities. We believe our 2019 estimates are solid. Turning now to workers' comp. We posted a current accident year loss ratio of 61%, flat to full year 2018. Our loss selections properly recognize the rate pressure in this line. They also consider the continued favorability we are seeing in our prior year experience. We're pleased with the continued strong performance in workers' comp. However, because of ongoing pressure on rate, we are monitoring this line closely. Commercial Lines net written premiums grew 2.4% for the quarter, reflecting the previously mentioned profit improvement actions in Commercial Auto and programs. We reduced net written premium in both businesses by approximately 7% each and replaced it with growth in more profitable areas, including professional liability, marine and small commercial. Excluding these profit actions, Commercial Lines growth in the quarter was 5.2%, up from 3% in the first quarter. Moving on to our investment performance. Net investment income was $69.6 million for the quarter, 6.1% higher than the prior year period due to the continued investment of cash flows from operations and the investment of undeployed equity related to the Chaucer sale. This was partially offset by slightly lower partnership income. Lower interest rates have reduced yields on the reinvestment of fixed income assets. However, it is currently having a minor impact on our overall NII given the low turnover of the portfolio. Cash and invested assets were $8 billion at June 30 with fixed income securities and cash representing 85% of the total. Our fixed maturity investment portfolio has a duration of 4.2 years and is 95% investment grade. Our well-laddered and diversified portfolio remains high quality with a weighted average of A plus. Our operating effective tax rate for the quarter was 20.5%, lower than the statutory rate due to the net favorable impact of excess tax deductions on certain stock compensation. We anticipate the effective tax rate going forward will approximate the statutory rate of 21%. During the quarter, we had some nonoperating items in net income, including those related to a true-up for Chaucer. When we recorded the gain on the sale of Chaucer in the fourth quarter of 2018, we had to estimate the contingent consideration that would ultimately be adjusted based on the level of 2018 Chaucer cats as updated through June 30, 2019. Based on some well-documented industry increases and the impact on Chaucer's reserves from Hurricane Michael, Typhoon Jebi and the Colombian dam, we decreased the gain on sale by approximately $13.5 million before tax. Combined with the gain on sale of the Australian entity, which closed in April, the after-tax true-up in the quarter was $9.9 million. In addition, based on a June 2019 federal tax law change that was applied retroactively, the tax on the overall gain on the sale of Chaucer was increased by $5.6 million. On the positive side, included in net income but not operating income were unrealized gains on equity securities of $12.1 million. Turning now to equity and the capital position. Our book value per share was $74.39, up 3.4% for the quarter compared with $71.95 per share at the end of the first quarter. The increase was largely attributable to earnings. Unrealized gains from fixed and equity investments were partially offset by the payment of quarterly dividends and the impact of the accelerated share repurchase agreements, including normal dilution and the timing of the share count reduction. As Jack referenced, on the end of June, we announced the completion of the first $250 million ASR program we entered into at the end of 2018 and received delivery of the remaining 280,000 shares. Additionally, we executed a new $150 million ASR. As a result, the total $150 million for the new program was taken out of shareholders' equity as of the settlement date of June 30th, and 80% of the total shares expected to be repurchased or approximately 950,000 shares were delivered. Due to this timing issue, the full impact of the initial share delivery on our weighted average shares outstanding won't be seen until the third quarter. The ASR will finish in 2 to 4 months depending upon the purchasing pattern with Scotiabank delivering the remaining shares at that time. As a reminder, our purchases are at VWAP over the period that the ASR program is ultimately completed. We expect weighted average shares for the third quarter to be approximately 40.1 million. Our remaining deployable equity related to the sale of Chaucer is now approximately $250 million. We will continue to apply our existing capital management framework, allocating the remaining deployable equity among business investments, share repurchases and other capital-return options, all with a view toward the best interest of our shareholders. Annualized operating return on equity was 11.1% for the quarter or 12.2% after adjusting for the remaining undeployed equity and net investment income related to the Chaucer sale proceeds. Our strong second quarter results reflect our clear strategic focus, financial discipline and commitment to delivering sustainable top-quartile results. Looking ahead, we are comfortable with our initial outlook for the year and note that our third quarter catastrophe assumption is set at 4.8%. With that, we will now open the line for your questions. Operator?