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The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (THG)

Q2 2012 Earnings Call· Thu, Aug 2, 2012

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to the Hanover Insurance Group Second Quarter Conference Call. My name is Larissa and I’ll be your operator for today’s call. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later we’ll conduct a question-and-answer session. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I’ll now like to turn the conference over to Oksana Lukasheva. Please go ahead.

Oksana Lukasheva

Management

Thank you, Larissa. Good morning and thank you for joining us for our second quarter conference call. We will begin today’s call with prepared remarks from Fred Eppinger, our President and Chief Executive Officer, and David Greenfield, our Executive Vice President and CFO. Also in the room and available to answer your questions after our prepared remarks are Marita Zuraitis, President, Property and Casualty Companies; Andrew Robinson, President of Specialty Lines; and Bob Stuchbery, President of International Operations and Chief Executive Officer of Chaucer. Before I turn the call over to Fred, let me note that our earnings press release, statistical supplement and a complete slide presentation for today’s call are available in the Investor Section of our website at www.hanover.com. After the presentation, we will answer questions in the Q&A session. Our prepared remarks and responses to your questions today, other than statements of historical facts, include forward-looking statements such as our guidance for segment income per share for 2012 and commentary on 2013 and ‘14. There are certain factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated by the press release, slide presentation and conference call. We caution you with respect to reliance on forward-looking statements and in this respect refer you to the forward-looking statements section in our press release, slide two of the presentation deck and our filings with the SEC. Today’s discussion will also reference, certain non-GAAP financial measures, such as total segment income, after-tax earnings per share, segment result excluding the impact of catastrophes and development, among others. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to the closest GAAP measure on a historical basis can be found in the press release or the statistical supplements, which are posted on our website, as I mentioned earlier. With those comments, I will turn the call over to Fred.

Fred Eppinger

Management

Thank you, Oksana, and good morning everyone, and thank you for joining our call today. The results released late yesterday were in line with the early information we provided two weeks ago. Net income per share for the quarter was $0.46 and operating EPS was $0.22, which translates to an annualized operating RoE of 5% to the first six months of the year. Our book value per share, which is now 58.81 increased 8% over the last 12 months and 2% during the quarter. Though our earnings for the quarter were disappointing due to some specific challenges we faced, we continue to seek favorable trends in our businesses and progress on our strategic priorities that positions us well for continued earnings improvement. Weather once again affected our domestic results. Our catastrophe losses in the U.S. were 71 million or nine points of the combined ratio. Additionally in response to some emerging loss trends in auto lines we increased our loss estimates, most notably for 2011. We also increased loss estimates on our contract surety book. However, despite these challenges, we produced a profitable quarter to given our diversified and improved portfolio, importantly we made progress on key strategic priorities. We continue to improve the quality of our business mix through targeted pricing and underwriting activities and increased share of the higher margin business in the mix. We further strengthen our position and alignment with wining agents while maintaining a disciplined focus on pricing. We have also gained expense leverage through operating model efficiency. Finally, July 1, marked one full year since we completed the acquisition of Chaucer. Over the past year Chaucer has delivered strong pre-tax segments of 88 million. Before I go into these areas in more detail and offer some thoughts on the market, the trends we are seeing in our business and the impact they should have on our 2012 and longer-term outlook, I would like to have David review our second quarter results and provide you a better context.

David Greenfield

Management

Thank you, Fred, and good morning everyone. Net income for the second quarter was $20.8 million, or $0.46 per diluted share compared to a net loss of $32.2 million, or $0.71 per diluted share in the prior year quarter. Our segment income this quarter was $10 million, or $0.21 per diluted share, a substantial improvement over the loss of $38.4 million, or $0.85 per diluted share in the prior year quarter. The difference between net income and segment income is due to the realized gain from CMI, a small workers compensation third-party administrator business we sold. This business was not a strategic part of our core operations and the sale allowed us to free up a modest amount of capital. This transaction resulted in an after tax gain of $11 million, or $0.24 per share, which is included in discontinued operations. Catastrophe losses this quarter was $74 million, compared to $157 million in the second quarter last year. While losses in the quarter were much lower than the record high cats we experienced a year ago, they still represented nine points of the domestic combined ratio, which is about three or four points higher than our longer-term expectations for this business. The quarter was also impacted by unfavorable prior year reserve development. Overall for the company, we recorded net unfavorable prior year development of $17.2 million or 1.6 point of the combined ratio, compared to net favorable development of $15.3 million or two points in the second quarter of last year. The unfavorable development was primarily attributable to a $13 million increase to the contract portion of our surety book, which is included in our other Commercial Lines business as well as $8.3 million related to auto lines. As you know, we significantly refocused and re-underwrote our surety business beginning…

Fred Eppinger

Management

Thank you, David, as I mentioned earlier and as David just reiterated, we feel very good about the fundamentals of our business, our position in the market and our prospects for the future. When we evaluate the progress on our strategic priorities, we are pleased with the headway we made particularly giving the ongoing pressures in economy in the current marketplace. At this critical time for the industry, we remain fully committed to underwrite the best business. This needs a heightened focus on pricing actions, continued exposure management practices, effective measures and run-off portion of our surety book and continued efforts on realizing the value of our operating model efficiencies. To these glances, I like to review the business initiatives we continue to implement this quarter as well discuss the market environment in each business segment beginning with commercial lines. We achieved growth of 9% in core commercial in the second quarter of 2012 primarily driven by pricing, continuing strong retention levels and increased new business with our partnering agent. Overall, price increases from the core businesses were just over 6%. Demonstrating the continued success we were having and driving rate improvement. Our price increases in the middle market were 7% in the second quarter of 2011. In commercial auto, where we experienced an increase in severity, our pricing increased 5% compared to 1% a year ago. And we are planning and expect to receive higher rate increases through the end of year. We approach price increases in a thoughtful targeted manner, so as to minimize disruption and improve the overall quality of our book. We believe our results this quarter demonstrate that the strategy is working. Retention continues to be strong and we are confident our distribution strategy will enable us to achieve additional rate increases in the coming…

Oksana Lukasheva

Management

We are now ready for questions.

Operator

Operator

(Operator instructions) Your first question comes from Dan Farrell from Sterne Agee. Dan, please go ahead

Fred Eppinger

Management

Good morning, Dan. Dan Farrell – Sterne Agee: A couple of questions. First on your new back guidance, you said the back half (inaudible) of cat, how do we think about that for making next year – is that should we think about that as the run rate, because you are engaged in ongoing cash per management then I’m also surprised that you bump the third-quarter more I realized where in when hurricane season, but you’ve also done a lot to address coastal exposure, because its some of the events that have taken place thus far?

Operator

Operator

Dan, I am sorry, it was very hard to hear you, if you couldn’t talk a little bit louder. Dan Farrell – Sterne Agee: I am sorry, we try again there.

Fred Eppinger

Management

I think we got some of it Dan, but and maybe you can come back around, let me start with the second point on the CATS, we bumped the cats’ in outlook, because of obviously what happened in the second quarter but also, you will recall there was a lot of activity around the end of June and into early July. So we’ve already have an indication of some activity in July now I realize it’s early in the quarter, but we are taking a view that we think the quarter will be a little higher than our original expectations as a result of what we have already seen for the first month of the quarter.

David Greenfield

Management

Yeah. So we just – now its prudently and you can do the math that we gave you, but it’s say $10 million to $12 million more in the second quarter, because of what we saw and it was that storm – significant storm, that it was the last few days of June and then it was the first three or so days of July, that drove it. The other question you had is about our cat pics, as you know last year couple of things, we felt that there was a very important we said at Investor Day to assume that some of the weather patterns that we are seeing are real. So we took our non-cat estimates up three points this year. And that’s why some of the rate activity in kind of transitioning to our through this year. We also took our cat percentages up. We haven’t yet determined exactly what our cat percentage will be for next year, but as you know, we have tend out a lot of business. At the Investor Day, I talked about $200 million worth of business because it’s not just its not really hurricanes, its notion of having some micro-concentrations with all these kitty cats that we are experiencing that are quite different. And so we’ve taken a lot of action to reduce – we mentioned about $200 million of business, which were about two-thirds of the way down finished. And so I am not necessarily sure we will take up our cat estimates next year at all or – that much, because again we believe that our mix all our strategy towards a more balanced geography and more balanced casualty property. I think offsets come other trends in the industry. So again, I think that we are likely to be closed to where we are today at the end of next year, but we haven’t really fully kind of assessed that. Dan Farrell – Sterne Agee: That’s helpful. Then just on the insurance line, you said you put the provisions for higher losses through the rest of this year, will that through higher your development or higher accident year loss, because it’s unfair to me that some of the contracts obviously started in 2008, things like (inaudible) in the reserve development, but obviously you take higher pics as well, and then the 57.1 accident year loss ratio ex-cat within that other commercial line, is that a run rate or should we think about just having a little extra (inaudible) catch up in the previous quarter?

Fred Eppinger

Management

Let me try to first cover that first point, Dan. When you look at surety it’s a little bit different than the more traditional insurance plans in terms of current year versus prior year determination, because as you point out the project span multiple years, the premiums written in the particular year, and then the point at which a project fails is sometimes debatable in the process. Obviously, the day we get it notice or the day we determine it is one thing but the actual day in which we might chose the determine a loss could be different. So I don’t want to bog you down and all the details of that. If you will I do think we’ll see some prior year development and potentially some also current actions as we talked about in the outlook. I couldn’t predict for you at this point without knowing exclusively what projects fail and what projects we’re seeing loses come through whether it’s going to show up in the prior year or current year. So it’s one of the reasons why I made the comment about just looking – trying to look at the ratios in this business more in a longer-term basis than on our period-to-period or quarter-to-quarter basis or year-over-year basis. And then in terms of the run rate, I don’t have that in front of me. I think in terms of the other commercial line run rate where we are now is similar to where we will be in the second half of the year, maybe within a point or two. I don’t expect to be a much different from a comparative standpoint. And I think if you compare year-over-year, we were little higher last year in the third quarter in the other commercial lines. So we think that that will also sort of work its way out as we go into the second half of this year. Dan Farrell – Sterne Agee: (Inaudible).

Fred Eppinger

Management

Yeah. That’s a good point. This book, Dan, if we were in this business – we were in this business, 100 years, so there was a portion of this book that we inherited that was small contractors and had certain characteristics. That portion of the book grew a little bit, but that’s the book we really attacked in ‘09 and would have very specific credit characteristics. If you look at the losses we’ve experienced, that’s where the vast majority of our all the losses are coming from that and that is basically going away. So that book of business and those projects are finished, and so you can look at that result in all the different ways we look at losses and experiencing those in particular projects. That business is pretty much done, right. So, but the year did the year that’s a gone away. So that’s why we look going forward and the business we’ve actually kept in our core business is running very, very well. The credit characteristics are outstanding. It’s got a more mixed towards a more sophisticated contractor and it’s more commercial surety, it’s more flow commercial surety and so the core of our book contract and commercial that remains is quite attractive. And the rest of the business and projects are essentially getting finished. And that’s why it’s pretty clear what’s going to happen by the end of this year.

Operator

Operator

Cliff Gallant from KBW is on line with the question. Cliff Gallant – KBW: Good morning. When I look at the guidance now and I – if I – now sort of back the envelope now say, you know, I figure three or four points of the bad weather in the second quarter and in the third quarter were to be pulled out. You know that would – that would indicate it sort of underlying or normalized earnings powers in the $4 range, which is – that means you know on average ROE – I think it is less than 7%, is that the way we should be thinking about the profitability, the ROE potential of the company today, is that the right math?

Fred Eppinger

Management

I think if you look at the components, right, the three components we talked about, the weather you can do the 12 and see what that is – that change. The other is probably a point in auto that comes from these trends. We thinks its conservative and appropriate given what other people are saying in industry to take a different outlook a little bit more conservative outlook particularly on the severity side of the auto business going forward. And then to a much less extent some – the surety adjustments. The upside obviously, the reason why we think there is going to be so much upside in 13 is our price almost across the board is above the lost cost pretty significantly now. So even commercial auto and in personal auto we are making adjustments, our current rate level is better than our lost contract. So what you’re going to see is increasing earning power in the business in 13 that why we are so confident and then obviously, the drag – if point – ends right. There is upside to that so that’s why I think between – through 13, the improvement of mix, the pricing earnings way in, we will also will have additional leverage on the expense side. We think that earnings power increases 13 and as I said I think that 14 would our target range. Cliff Gallant – KBW: Okay. All right. Thank you

Fred Eppinger

Management

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Meyer Shields is queue with question from Stifel Nicolaus. Meyer Shields – Stifel Nicolaus: Yeah, thanks. Good morning, everyone.

Fred Eppinger

Management

Good morning, Meyer. Meyer Shields – Stifel Nicolaus: A couple of quick ones. And then may be bigger picture question, with the real rates transactions, should the offset to written premium growth, I guess, is that pretty evenly spread over the next three quarters?

Fred Eppinger

Management

No – actually a lot of been affected this quarter because of the way the transaction came through. We do – we expect we will be back on a growth pattern to the comments that Fred made when we get in to next two quarters and really overall the amounts involved here are not that significant that it would effect you are spreading, if you will. Meyer Shields – Stifel Nicolaus: Okay. So the fact that it – actually negative growth you are saying is an anomaly?

Fred Eppinger

Management

Yeah, a lot of it is really kind of more or less coming through now.

David Greenfield

Management

That’s right. Meyer Shields – Stifel Nicolaus: Okay. That’s very helpful. What were the CMI results reported up until now, anything commercial?

Fred Eppinger

Management

Yeah, it was. It’s pretty small on a performance basis, so – I won’t go through the actual numbers but it really will have a very tiny affect on our – really almost no effect on our earnings going forward.

Fred Eppinger

Management

It was a pure servicing business that – so there was no underwriting aspect to it. Meyer Shields – Stifel Nicolaus: Right. I understand that. And the bigger picture.

Fred Eppinger

Management

Sorry. Meyer Shields – Stifel Nicolaus: I am sorry, can you hear me?

Fred Eppinger

Management

Can now. Yes. Meyer Shields – Stifel Nicolaus: Okay. Sorry, I am having problems with my headset. Fred you talked about how rate increases are exceeding current trend I think that’s consistent with what we are hearing across the board. What leading indicators you look to sort of fee where trend will be when these rate increases are being earned?

Fred Eppinger

Management

Is what are – indicators for trends are you saying? Meyer Shields – Stifel Nicolaus: Right. In other words, trend get worse now and then ultimately keep up with or even exceed the earned premium increases stemming from higher rate levels?

Fred Eppinger

Management

Yeah. I guess we look hard at the trends and what the timing of the trends are. And as I said, we haven’t seen anything in the trends. If you look at frequency because our mix of business is getting better and most of our businesses we are seeing a continued decrease in frequency and as we said in the couple of the order lines we seeing severity pick up a little bit, but the lost cause trends in total have not changed that much, for us across the board, so far. So we don’t see that changing right now and we see the pricing trends maintaining and going up a little bit in our businesses. Meyer Shields – Stifel Nicolaus: Okay, great. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Matt Carletti from JMP Securities, online. Matthew Carletti – JMP Securities: Thank you.

Fred Eppinger

Management

Hi, Matt. Matthew Carletti – JMP Securities: Good morning. I just had a question on I wanted to talk about U.K. motor for a second and in recent conversations I have noted some people are little more concerned about line, I would not say alarmed anyway, but it comes up in conversation a lot more these days. Yeah, you mentioned the rate environment easing a bit, is that your only concern right now are you seeing kind of underlying car trends deteriorating as well and as an add-on to that, is that a line that longer-term it is core to Hanover or might at some point you look for options let say, were to deteriorate?

Fred Eppinger

Management

Bob is here, so I’m going to let Bob answer the question and I can follow-up obviously if there anything else.

Bob Stuchbery

Analyst

This will go into the right expectations we’ve got. Obviously you had a situation where there needed to be some quite severe adjustment over the last couple of years, which we managed to get through in the market as well. So we are seeing a moderation of those write increases in 2012 as a have that book back on track. The book is hasn’t changed at all, the core portfolio we’ve got as we remained pretty static and we are very selective about what we do write and some have a very low market share in the U.K. So some of the industry dynamics being talked about probably aren’t so apparent to us and aren’t significant to us and so I’d really say from our point of view we are comfortable with the writing levels we’re seeing at the moment, performance of that book and really there is no indications that there’s anything other than we expected from market conditions.

Fred Eppinger

Management

Yeah. And if you recall from our earlier conversation, to Bob’s point. I don’t want to describe it as a non-standard. But we have a very interesting – program business and some specialty auto business and it is not that big and we got good rate increases over the last very significant rate increases last couple of years and we have had very stable earnings right now. So I think we’re going to – we feel like that we’re in a pretty good place right now. And we don’t see a big change in our ability to earn the margins we expect this year. Matthew Carletti – JMP Securities: Okay. That is helpful. And then just kind of a follow-up on the ROE and kind of actually any improvement discussion, kind of refresh my memory, is that a 12% ROE, or 11 to 13 range of the target and so going on the map, that was gone over before, pointed to kind of normalizing things, I think is why we called rough numbers, if you were to normalize this year, let’s say, 7% ROE. So I guess you feel confident that given the rate increases you’re seeing in the loss cost environment you’re seeing that over two years ‘13 and ‘14 there is 500 basis points of ROE improvement to be had?

Fred Eppinger

Management

And again one of the things that’s unique about us, you guys know this but in ‘09 when we got the rate increases, we had made the company better but my view was that our portfolio wasn’t distinctive enough and wasn’t diversified enough to have sustainable ROEs in the range that we believe (inaudible) one of the better companies. And so, a lot of our investment from ‘09 forward was to change that portfolio, whether it was the charter acquisition of the OneBeacon renewal rights deal, the investments we made in some of the specialty lines. Our portfolio now is dramatically different, right both it has a nice geographic spread, it’s 50-50 casual property, it is much more distinctive and it’s Maxifier’s industry solutions. And so when we look at it, it’s not – we are little bit different than others. We get really three things that are helping us. One is, – what I would tell, the traditional pricing that people are getting. That we are getting as well that is really quite helpful and I would add to that pricing is that we are doing really good work right now on portfolio improvement particularly around properties. So we’ve gotten off as I said we focused on about $200 million worth of business that were property centric and places we didn’t think, we can get excess returns or adequate returns. So we got rid of those and we’ve rid of a lot of those micro concentration about two-thirds of this is behind us. We have been creative with renewal rates and other ways but we – some transition cost to that obviously but the combination of just core pricing and that has been very helpful. Second point though is the maturity of our businesses. So, what we have now…

Fred Eppinger

Management

Yes. We don’t normally talk about the numbers, per se, but I would say we are not similar to the industry is. We’re definitely few points below where we’re getting on rate. And so, we were very comfortable about the trend if will that Fred was talking about in terms of pricing about our loss cost trends. I would say, the other point to be made here is we still have very strong retention which also gives us the opportunity to drive more rates. So, we’re not worried at all about the loss costs point at this moment in the juncture. And again, I won’t go into the actual numbers there, but we not similar to what we’re seeing in...

David Greenfield

Management

One of the things about us is that we have – if you look at our – we have probably the lowest percentage of middle-market workers comp in the top 20 companies too. So that is the one line obviously where loss cost have continue to be pretty significant trend. We just don’t experience it, that were mostly a small comp writer and we have a small percentage of comp? So, most of ours, if you look at it what we – it’s more contained, right, and – because even if severity that we are talking about in commercial auto is a very contained thing, right. It’s pretty obviously to see and you can address it pretty quickly with rates. We haven’t – we don’t have a lot of long tail. We don’t have public company D&O, which I think is another place where I think people look at that and say, they were been harder, either much more short tail, more manageable, more clear and with a gap to us is pretty stable.

Fred Eppinger

Management

But to your point in commercial auto, Fred, when you think about the second quarter of last year where we were only getting one point of auto price and a very profitable book. In this quarter five point of price on that auto book as you mentioned in your script. And only a slight increase in the severity trend plus with what the industry is seeing, it’s bodes well to what we’ll be able to build enterprise in the auto line going forward. So I think that’s a very good example of that. Matthew Carletti – JMP Securities: Thank you for the answers and best of luck.

Fred Eppinger

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Ray Iardella from Macquarie is on line. Ray Iardella – Macquarie: Thanks and good morning.

Fred Eppinger

Management

Good morning.

David Greenfield

Management

Good morning Ray. Ray Iardella – Macquarie: Good morning. Couple of quick questions, I guess first, maybe David on the distress test that you outline on the surely reserves, Just curious sort of can give us a high level sort of where the parameters are you assuming and sort of worst case scenario, I mean that is drastic downturn in the economy, give us some thoughts if possible?

Fred Eppinger

Management

Yeah. I’m going to ask Andrew Robinson who leads our specialty business. I am going to ask him to comment on that for you Rick.

Andrew Robinson

Analyst

obviously we went through coming out of 2008 a pretty severe downturn in the economy and the construction economy was largely maintained by big infrastructure projects which really isn’t where most of our contract books is, so we are able to do very – against sort of a prolonged period that looks like 2008. And so what we were able to do is just get when Fred talked about sort of a go forward book or David talked about it, we were able to do is just get to the segment of the market that we feel has great quality, well in access of where the market is today that we would feel comfortable in allowing us certainly some comfort if there was a further downturn in the construction economy. I would say that also we are thinking very seriously that is, is where our business is placed. So for example, looking at the upper Midwest is very different than looking at Texas or even looking down in parts of the golf where there is a good deal of land reformation work. And so some of that is very geographic centric about how we look at our portfolio. And so it was those combination of things and through the course of the process, I wouldn’t say that we were surprised by what we concluded and what accounts for and support and what accounts, we are now – we are just more comfortable that what we have is the view that, that does look at the sort of stress test of the economy that looks like sort of a period of 2008 prolonged into the future. Ray Iardella – Macquarie: All right. That’s helpful. And I guess my question was kind of more focused on the accounts where you guys have reserves right now. I mean is there any sort stress test you are doing around that and kind of put some parameters around what sort of the worst case scenario maybe what are the reserves currently held on that, discontinued book and then perhaps sort of – give us an idea of maybe worst-case scenario in your mind as it stands right now?

Fred Eppinger

Management

I think that’s exactly what we did and what you saw us do. I mean that’s why we put the money up, so we the vast majority of that was about this which says, what could happen, what’s the worst outlook. And to David’s point, most of it we adjusted in the reserves, but we also were saying on a go forward, we did some also adjustment on our outlook to really capture in a pretty bad scenario what it would be because we thought it was the right thing to do to be conservative then just kind of really do this and put it behind us this year, but that’s what you are seeing is that kind of assessment and the impact on of it on this quarter.

David Greenfield

Management

And I’ll add one other item which is, whenever we see a claim situation or a prospective claim situation, we are looking at the principal across all bonded exposure and non-bonded exposure. So if you think about our point of view is really looking at the entire financial characteristics of the principal, so that we can understand how activities as it relates to some contract that we have or multiple contracts that we have, might be affected by some other non-bonded exposure etcetera. And so for us, we are pretty comprehensive in understanding how some of these things relate and what really could be sort of the ultimate loss so to say with maybe just a single claim that we’re getting. Ray Iardella – Macquarie: Okay. That’s helpful, and I appreciate the color. So just putting it in a sort of big picture, I guess, the majority of the change was IBNR as oppose, so you know any specific cases or is that the right way to think about it?

Fred Eppinger

Management

No.

David Greenfield

Management

No. If you get – it was both, because these would be – again, because they are run-off business. If we could specifically identify it to the account, we would put it into the case, right. So we literally did every single account left in our book, and did this and assed it. And again, to Andrew’s point, just a – this is a business we were in for a long time, and it was geographically centered to where we used to be big. It had characteristics, it was mostly small contractors. And as you know, when the credit crisis came, they were the most affected by this. And so, we believe we have a good handle on it. And as I said, with a stress test on our go forward, I want an echo how good we feel about our go forward book, because even with all these stress tests and assessment our go forward book in all aspects performs very, very well, so we feel very good about where we are right now in the go forward. Ray Iardella – Macquarie: Okay. Now that’s helpful. And then maybe moving on sort of ex-surety and maybe some of the auto lines; was there any movement in the loss picks for the current year?

Fred Eppinger

Management

Yeah. So again, in our outlook obviously we’ve tried to adjust looking at the past and then looking at our book what I was saying about our outlook, a big portion of our outlook change is, just taking a more conservative point of view on the current accident year pick in auto, particularly personal auto is where – we are not as big in commercial auto, we don’t write heavy trucks or anything. So, most of our activity is really personal auto. And I would tell you also that we’re not just looking at our book, we’re also listening to the industry dialog about what the industry is saying and what’s unfolding in the industry, which makes us want to take the conservative point of view on this, because of the – we’re not the only person talking about what’s happening with severity in the auto book. So we thought it was appropriate for us to, on a go forward basis, affect our picks. And again, most of this is ‘11 and forward, right. I mean, that’s – really that’s what it is, and that’s how we address this.

David Greenfield

Management

Yeah. But besides those points I think there’s very little movement in our other picks for the year. Ray Iardella – Macquarie: Okay. So second quarter no movement really up or down, year-to-date?

Fred Eppinger

Management

I’m sorry. You have to expand on that. Ray Iardella – Macquarie: During the second quarter did you adjust any of your loss picks for the current accident year?

Fred Eppinger

Management

Just in the lines we’ve talked about we have... Ray Iardella – Macquarie: Okay.

Fred Eppinger

Management

Across the other lines very – really want to tweak something but really marginally.

David Greenfield

Management

Not materially. Ray Iardella – Macquarie: Okay, okay. That’s what I was looking for. And then lastly, and then I’ll re-queue. Sorry to take up so much time. Buybacks, what is your thought on that going forward? I know there was marginally some buybacks in the second quarter, but just any color would be helpful.

Fred Eppinger

Management

Yes, sure. And I made some references in my remarks, but we saw the opportunity to deploy some capital in buybacks. There was a lot of volatility in the market. We saw – there was some good value in putting some money to work here, and we did do some buyback. And as I said in my remarks, we’re open to potentially doing some more, but I would tell you it’d be very modest amounts through the rest of the year. So we have a lot of authorization left and there is no way we’re going to spending that entire authorization, and I think as we where our share price is today, and as we look at the volatility in the marketplace, we are going to opportunistically look at putting some money against more buybacks. Ray Iardella – Macquarie: Okay. Thanks for all the answers.

Fred Eppinger

Management

Sorry, we don’t have anyone else on the line. So we will take your last question.

David Greenfield

Management

No, that was al I had. Ray Iardella – Macquarie: Thank you.

Oksana Lukasheva

Management

Thank you for your participation today. And we’re looking forward to talk to you next quarter.

Fred Eppinger

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you ladies and gentlemen; this concludes today’s conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.