Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (TFPM) Q2 2026 Earnings Report, Transcript and Summary

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Angela, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Triple Flag Precious Metals Second Quarter 2026 Conference Call. I'd like to remind everyone that this call is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Sheldon Vanderkooy, Chief Executive Officer and Director. Please go ahead.

Thank you, Angela. Thank you for joining us to discuss Triple Flag's Second quarter 2026 results. With me on the call this morning are Eban Bari, our Chief Financial Officer; and James Dendle, our Chief Operating Officer. This quarter marks a milestone for our company. Triple Flag is entering its second decade, and we are doing so with the strongest organic growth profile in our history and a clear track record of compounding shareholder value. H1 was the strongest 6 months in the history of our company. Q2 was another strong quarter. We sold nearly 29,000 GEOs. We generated $117 million of adjusted EBITDA, and we delivered operating cash flow per share of $0.54, up from $0.38 in Q2 of last year. This represents 42% growth in cash flow per share with our high-margin top line exposure to gold and silver prices translating directly into per share cash flow. June was a milestone month for Triple Flag. In the span of two weeks, we announced three important developments. First, we reached a settlement agreement with Steppe Gold that fully resolves all our outstanding disputes. We received all obligations and arrears on signing, and we have secured guaranteed fixed gold deliveries over the next 10 years, along with long-term exposure to production from the ATO mine. We initially invested $28 million in Steppe and have already received over $60 million of returns to date in addition to the over 34,000 ounces of gold to be delivered over the next 10 years. Second, we announced and closed the acquisition of a $440 million gold stream on the Ravenswood Gold Mine in Queensland, Australia. This is a cornerstone addition to our portfolio that delivers immediate cash flow from a large-scale, long-life, low-cost operation with first deliveries received in July of this year. And third, on the strength of these two developments, we increased our 2026 GEO guidance to 100,000 to 110,000 ounces and raised our 2030 outlook to 150,000 to 160,000 GEOs. Q2 was also a fantastic quarter for demonstrating the organic growth driven by mine development and mine life extension. In May, Agnico Eagle announced a positive construction decision at Hope Bay, a milestone that we have pointed to for several quarters and one that firmly anchors our growth beyond 2030 outlook. At Northparkes, the E48 sublevel cave is ramping up and its growth plans continue to advance, including a mill expansion study to 10 million tonnes per annum. And at Arthur, feasibility work and drilling are underway on a world-class greenfield deposit following the pre-feas released earlier this year. Finally, an important part of our capital allocation strategy remains returns to shareholders. We are pleased to announce our fifth consecutive annual increase of our dividend since we listed in 2021, which now equates to an annualized dividend of $0.24 per share. Additionally, we repurchased $20 million of shares in the open market during the quarter, taking advantage of the opportunity presented by the market. I will now turn it over to Eban to discuss our financial results for Q2 2026.

Thank you, Sheldon. As Sheldon highlighted, we had a very strong quarter with portfolio producing 28,700 GEOs, resulting in the first half of nearly 59,000 GEOs. This puts Triple Flag on track to achieve our increased 2026 guidance. Across the chart, adjusted EPS were up 63%, adjusted EBITDA was up 54% and most importantly, cash flow per share was up 42% year-over-year. Operating cash flow per share is the metric that most directly compounds to shareholders over time, and our strong margins ensure that higher metal prices flow directly through to our shareholders. This strong cash flow generation continues to support all our capital allocation priorities. We view a progressively growing dividend as a core part of our capital allocation strategy and one that's sustainable across all metal prices. Our dividend has now been increased to $0.24 on an annualized basis, up 4% from prior dividend. I'm proud that we've increased our dividend every year since our IPO. On buybacks, we have said that we view our shares as being undervalued. And we acted on that view this quarter, repurchasing $20 million worth of shares in the open market. The NCIB remains an active part of our shareholder return strategy, and we will continue to be opportunistic. Lastly, I would like to comment on our balance sheet. Despite deploying $440 million on Ravenswood acquisition, $20 million on share buybacks and our normal course dividend, we exited the quarter with over $1.1 billion of available liquidity. We funded Ravenswood with cash on hand and drawings from our revolving credit facility. And given cash-generating power of our business with over $100 million worth of operating cash flow this quarter alone, we expect to repay this facility rapidly during 2027 based on current metal prices. Overall, a strong balance sheet, robust operating cash flows and total liquidity of $1.1 billion gives us the capital to continue deploying dollars into accretive opportunities to drive future growth for the benefit of our shareholders. With that, I will turn it over to James to walk you through Ravenswood, Hope Bay and our growth pipeline.

Thank you, Eban. Starting with Ravenswood, where we hold a 5.5% gold stream. The mine is Queensland's largest gold mine and a top 10 Australian gold mine by ore reserves. There are several attributes we particularly like about this transaction. First, this is a producing proven operation. Ravenswood has been in continuous production since 1987 and has produced a 4 million ounces gold since discovery. Stream generates cash flow immediately with first deliveries having commenced in Q3. Second, the asset offers attractive scale and mine life and costs. The expansion completed in 2023 supports growth in annual production to more than 200,000 ounces with the operation ramping towards that level by 2028, while sitting in the lower half of the global cost curve. Third, the mineral endowment is extensive, and the exploration is compelling. Since 2020, roughly 800,000 ounces of reserve additions outpaced 600,000 ounces of depletion with multiple in-pit and near-mine targets adjacent to the Buck Reef West and Sarsfield known pits. Turning to Hope Bay. We hold a 1% NSR royalty on this Agnico Eagle project in Nunavut. In late May, Agnico Eagle announced a positive construction decision. The accompanying study contemplates 6,000 tonnes per day underground operation, producing 400,000 to 435,000 ounces of gold per year over an initial 11-year life of mine. First production is expected in 2030. What makes Hope Bay particularly exciting is what the initial plan leaves us. The 11-year mine life incorporates nearly about half of the declared mineral resource, 55% of the measured and indicated, and 48% of the inferred. Beyond that, Agnico has over 90 regional targets across a highly prospective 80-kilometer Greenstone belt with 700,000 meters of drilling planned over the next 5 years. This includes drilling up the Boston deposit, which is not included in the PEA and is located 50 kilometers south of Madrid deposit. Hope Bay has the potential to develop into a multi-decade district scale mining camp and Agnico's decades of proven Arctic operating experience and established logistics routes make them the ideal operator to realize its potential. Finally, I want to discuss some of the assets that will drive further growth beyond our 2030 outlook. This should provide a clear view to our shareholders of what will become core paying assets to Triple Flag. Arthur, Kemess, Hope Bay, and Northparkes are world-class long-life assets located in established mining jurisdictions. At Arthur, a pre-feasibility study was released in February, forming the basis of permitting to commence in 2027. The current 9-year life of mine is the beginning of a much longer life. AngloGold has described the study as tip of the iceberg, noting that Arthur is a marquee asset that will anchor AngloGold's portfolio in the 2050s. At Kemess, Triple Flag holds a 100% silver stream. The 2026 PEA supports a large-scale copper gold, silver operation, reaching production by 2031, leveraging existing brownfield infrastructure and permits from previous mining operations. The PEA mine plan represents only 47% of the total resource tonnes, providing upside for further ounces to be included in an upcoming PFS in mid-2027. As I mentioned, we expect Hope Bay to commence production in 2030 with a ramp-up thereafter. And finally, Northparkes is Triple Flag's largest asset. Numerous growth projects have recently been approved by Evolution, which will unlock value for a world-class copper and gold endowment that include the E22 block cave, the E44 gold open pit with minimum delivery guarantees and most importantly, a potential mill expansion to at least 10 million tonnes per annum, the latter two of which are currently being studied over the next year. We believe that the mill expansion is the optimal path to unlock value from not only the 625 million tonnes of total current resources, but other prospective underexplored targets that could materially add to the production profile with increased scale and processing optionality. Taken together, these 4 assets are diversified across long-life district scale systems in Nevada, British Columbia, Nunavut and Australia, and they are all operated by high-quality counterparties, representing the foundation for further organic growth beyond 2030. I'll now pass it back to Sheldon.

Thank you, James. Our business model generates shareholder value through reinvesting our robust cash flows into accretive additions to the portfolio. In the past 18 months, since the start of 2025, we have deployed over $900 million into new high-quality streams and royalties, Tres Quebradas, Arcata and Azuca, Arthur, Minera Florida, the Johnson Camp and Gunnison royalties, the Northparkes E44 stream, and now Ravenswood. These are all high-quality assets operated by high-quality operating teams. The bulk of this capital has been deployed in Australia and the United States, and be deployed on attractive returns for our shareholders. Triple Flag shareholders will benefit from these portfolio additions for decades to come. I'd like to close by stepping back and looking at what Triple Flag has created over its first decade, a portfolio of 242 streams and royalties, 36 of them producing with a peer-leading exposure to Australia. We remain firmly focused on generating shareholder value. We have increased our GEO production every year since our 2016 founding. We have increased our dividend every year since our 2021 IPO. We are active buyers of our own shares and management and the Board remain founders and substantial owners of the company. Looking forward, the picture is even stronger. We had a strong first half with robust growth in operating cash flow per share, and we delivered $550 million of transactions that will benefit our shareholders for decades to come. Our increased guidance calls for 100,000 to 110,000 GEOs this year, growing to 150,000 to 160,000 GEOs in 2030 from a derisked pipeline that James just walked you through. And finally, we have over $1.1 billion of available liquidity to continue pursuing accretive opportunities over the remainder of the year and beyond. That concludes our prepared remarks. Operator, please open the floor to questions.

Your first question comes from the line of Cosmos Chiu with CIBC.

Sheldon, Eban and James, congrats on a strong first half. Maybe my first question is on Northparkes. James, you kind of touched on it, but the E44 development study is expected by the end of June 2027. Still some time away, but is there any kind of progress or any kind of update at least on that study that you can provide to us?

Yes. Cosmos, I obviously can't get too far ahead on the studies, but I think it's important to highlight that there's a number of things happening at Northparkes. Evolution has recently approved coarse particle flotation project and debottlenecking in the processing plant that opened up capacity. And then the two big milestones or developments in conjunction with that, one, the development of the E22 blockade, which is the next kind of frontier of mining at Northparkes in conjunction with the expansion of the mill. And the base expansion of the mill is 10 million tonnes, but it could be higher than that, and that's precisely what Evolution is studying at the moment. So that work is ongoing and there's been capital allocated towards those studies. So we look forward to seeing the results of that next year. And then E44 is relatively straightforward from a study point of view. It's a reasonably well-defined open pit that really requires ore mining and then treatment in conjunction with the other ore feeds. So the study under that is quite straightforward. So I think the focal point for us will be seeing how big of an expansion is done at the mill next year.

Maybe sticking with Australia, Ravenswood, good to see the first monthly delivery was received in July 2026. So can I take it that, I guess, Q3 is going to be a normal sort of quarter? Or is there still some kind of ramp-up factors that we should be aware of? And as you mentioned during the acquisition presentation, a normal quarter will be 2,300 to 3,300 GEOs per quarter. So again, is it Q3 going to be a normal quarter? Or is there any factors that we should still consider?

Yes. Look, it will be ramping up because there are capital projects going on to open up the Southfield open pits. And then that scales up towards the 200,000 ounce-plus run rate up 2028. During that period, it will be relatively normal, but there's a ramping profile for that asset.

Okay. Maybe switching gears a little bit. Cerro Lindo, it's been a great asset for Triple Flag. But now there's been a step down that happened in April. Cerro Lindo is one of your larger silver streams. I guess my question is, with that sort of coming down and a bit of a decrease in silver, at least contribution-wise, are you still happy, Sheldon, with your gold, silver, copper and other mix as it stands today?

Yes. Thanks, Cos. Bottom line is we are happy. Like we're a precious metals company, and we're always looking for high-quality gold, high-quality silver exposure, and we think we have that in spades. We long anticipated the Cerro Lindo step down. And as you pointed out, hitting the step down is a sign of success. And Cerro Lindo remains a very substantial asset for Triple Flag going forward. It's still going to be one of our largest contributors. There are no further step downs after this. Cerro Lindo is even looking at putting new capital into that project. So that's great. We benefit from that. And in terms of silver exposure over the longer term, I mean, we have Cerro Lindo, we have Buritica. We actually got quite a bit of silver out of Northparkes. That's fantastic. We have things like Arcata and Azuca, which are silver, and we've highlighted Kemess as well. And so that's silver exposure as well. So there's still a lot of silver in the portfolio.

Great. And then maybe one last question. likely for Eban. But going through your income statement, I noticed that taxes were fairly low, slightly over $1 million. G&A was also fairly low, $3.8 million, whereas first half totaled closer to $10 million, so a decrease from Q1. So I guess, Eban, what's a sustainable rate here? Is this representative of what we can expect for the remainder of the year?

Thanks for the question. Our G&A largely was impacted by mark-to-market on our share price. Has a pretty significant impact on the DSUs, RSUs and so forth. Our run rate is essentially it's based on what we had guided to the market, which is about $30 million to $32 million. So on a quarterly basis, we expect -- assuming all things being equal, we expect $7 million to $8 million worth of G&A for the quarter. With respect to tax being lower, it's a combination of tax benefits due to the share price decreases, but you get a benefit as well as mark-to-market on some of our prepays. So these are recoveries essentially, but cash taxes remain pretty consistent.

Yes. It's kind of funny, Eban, talking about the benefits because the share price decreased. So for you, I hope that you pay more taxes because that means the share price is going up. Congrats again on a very strong first half.

Your next question comes from the line of Josh Wolfson with RBC Capital Markets.

Just sort of 2 quick ones. First question is on Prieska. It sounds like the operator there is moving forward towards construction commencement. How should we think about the stream option? I guess, also when could we expect that to be exercised if it's exercised? And what would be the time lines for funding?

Yes, Josh, I can answer that. It's worth just remembering that when we entered into the stream transaction, the development plan was the deeper part of the ore body, there's an upper zone and a deeper zone. And the deeper zone is the lion's share of the economics, probably over 95% of the value. So the stream is predicated on getting the deeper zone into production. The company has subsequently reorientated the development of the asset to do it in a more of a staged manner, which actually is a very appropriate way of developing an asset for a development company. So all that to say, we still have the right but not obligation to fund stream. And the asset looks great. Glencore has come in with a very considerable financing to get them off the ground. But our focus is still on the deeps. So when the company moves towards an investment decision on the deeps, which we expect to be next year, we'll look to do our valuation and presumably invest the stream at that time. But all the sites we have at the moment are great. The economics for our stream are very robust. And I think having a supportive capital provider alongside us in Glencore is a good endorsement of the project and provides ample capital to get the project up and running and fully develop the deep zone as well.

Okay. And then Tres Quebradas, I know it's a pretty small contributor today. The release talks about Phase 2. Is there any goalpost that can be provided in terms of what production could look like when it's expanded?

Yes, there's been numerous expansion options there, Josh. The Phase 2 essentially doubles, but there's an opportunity to triple it from current levels. It has not been fully determined as to how large the production rate goes. There are options to take it even beyond the tripling of current levels. In our investment case is predicated on the mine running at the current nameplate of about 20,000 tonnes. So anything beyond that is great upside for us.

The next question comes from the line of Fahad Tariq with Jefferies. .

I wanted to come back to Ravenswood. In the second half of the year, can you just remind us if that's factored into the 2026 guidance? Or -- and I think I may have missed this, but is it fair to assume the low end of the quarterly deliveries at 2,300 ounces per quarter, in the third and fourth quarter of this year?

Fahad, it's Sheldon. I'll answer that. So we've updated our guidance to say we're looking at the top half of our updated guidance. So the top half of that $100 million to $110 million, and that does include the Ravenswood stream as well.

Okay. Got it. And then maybe just switching gears, one for Eban. On the balance sheet, I noticed the cash balance obviously came down just because of the transaction and the buybacks. But can you just remind us like minimum cash balance that the company typically targets going forward?

Yes, thanks. We generally -- we're a business that we don't really need a whole lot of money to maintain the business. So we generally try and limit how much cash we have on the balance sheet, just given we've got a facility that's drawn. So for us, about $10 million, $15 million is probably about the right number.

Your next question comes from the line of Tanya Jakusconek with Scotiabank.

Maybe just to finish off on the outlook for the second half of the year. Just Cerro Lindo step down, so that's occurring. We've got then Ravenswood production starting to contribute. How should we think the rest of the year with respect to Q3 and Q4? Originally, it had been that the first half was supposed to be higher than the second half. But how should I be thinking about the second half in Q3 and Q4?

Tanya, this is Sheldon. Obviously, you have our H1 to date, and we have our full year guidance. And so if you're looking for the split between Q3 and Q4, there's no real big differences we're seeing between the quarters. But again, we don't give quarterly guidance. So it's really the annual guidance and working towards that annual figure we've given the market.

No, it's just more with Q3 and Q4, like there's not that much difference, that's fair enough. Maybe my next question, if I could, was to come back to James when you talked about those 4 key assets beyond 2030. You can quickly do the math on Hope Bay and Arthur Gold and see that contribution. So as you think about beyond 2030, you've got the 150,000 to 160,000 GEOs. Are we looking with the remaining 2 getting closer to 200,000? Like is it something in the 20,000 to 50,000 ounce range that these additional ounces will contribute.

Yes. I mean, obviously, Tanya, defining the outlook. We're focused on the assets that we think have a clear line of sight to contributing in that time frame. Of course, there are other development stage projects that are earlier and at study level and need a few things to happen before they could contribute. But they certainly have studies that could show contributions that build above the outlook range. But we're always reluctant to include those in our outlook until we gain confidence. I think one of the other big variables is Northparkes. There's a lot of potential to add incremental gold to Northparkes, particularly given the increased processing capacity and the way that Evolution is looking at gold-only mineralization of that property. Of course, beyond E44, we don't have a great line of sight on that right now because there's still work to be done. But look, I think E44 will certainly continue far beyond the minimum deliveries. The life of that pit is likely at least double or triple the minimum delivery quantum. And I'm very confident there are further gold discoveries to be made. So I think I'd be looking to North Park is sort of unexpected additions to that profile. And then, of course, as we see projects become more solid from a permitting and capital provision perspective, we'll add those to profile too, and we'd expect that to stack on top of the numbers we've shared.

Yes. It's just really interested, James in these 4 -- like what could these 4 contribute?

Well, yes, I mean, you could put the studies together, Tanya, I think there's probably quite a bit more that Arthur could contribute beyond the PFS. I think Hope has a great deal of potential over and above the 400,000 to 435,000 ounces. I think in the mid-2030s, that could be a much bigger number. I think Kemess go for longer, but the annual outputs are probably fairly fixed by the study. But I really think it's Arthur and Hope Bay that have the greatest potential to grow annual production above the numbers we have in front of us today.

Yes, that's about 15,000 GEOs. I don't know what the other 2 would contribute. Sorry. I was just trying to -- so greater than 15,000 GEOs. Okay. My next question then comes back to just maybe, Eban, how are we handling -- just how should I think about the capital returns from your share buyback versus your dividend? You bought back $20 million this quarter. Should I be thinking that if we were to stay in this share price range that you will continue the share buyback?

Thanks for the question. We raised our -- we just raised our dividend and NCIB as part of our broader capital allocation strategy, and we look at that along with deals that we're working towards and going down the pipeline. So we'll be active on the market opportunistically, and we'll step in when we see value. So that's pretty much it. We've got a program in place, and we'll exercise discretion as we see fit.

And I guess my final question then is just on the transaction environment. And maybe just kind of review if anything in that has changed. We talked about it last quarter. It was in the $100 million to $500 million range. It was mainly in asset builds and maybe some third-party royalty transactions. So where are we on this now? Has anything changed? Has the structure of some of the deals changed? Anything for us to be aware of?

Tanya, it's Sheldon. I'll take that one. Really, it's remarkably the same. And you've seen how much we managed to deploy over the last 18 months. And I would say the pipeline right now seems as robust as it's ever been. That transaction range that you cited, I think, is still pretty accurate, that $100 million to $500 million, but we're also seeing some transactions that would even be larger than that. also comment on jurisdictions. I'd say generally, what we're seeing are jurisdictions that shareholders would generally be comfortable with. So anyway, we're still active. The corp dev team is busy, and we're going to see what we can do.

And Sheldon, are they mainly in gold? Or are you seeing some silver transactions as well? .

It's really a mix of metals, including like, I'd say, predominantly gold, there's some silver as well. There's probably some non-precious that might be attractive as well. But the bulk of what we're looking at really falls into that precious metals, again, right down the fairway of what our shareholders really are looking for.

Sheldon, you said non-precious as well. Is that something like you're looking at beyond gold and silver and non-precious?

Yes. I mean, like we have a long list of things we look at, and there are some non-precious. And we've done that before, right? Like Tres Quebradas has been a fantastic investment for us. And so we'll look at that on a very opportunistic basis. We're never going to take the portfolio away from being like a 90% gold and silver portfolio.

And your next question comes from the line of Brian MacArthur with Raymond James.

Most of them have been answered. But can I just ask about Impala. I mean you got $10.5 million this quarter. I'm not as familiar with that asset, but it's ramped -- it's changed over the last number of years. But that's like up significant versus any other time period and the gold price is down over Q1. Is that a normal run rate going forward? Has something changed there? Or was there a catch-up? Or how should I think about that going forward?

Brian, thanks. I'll take that question. So typically, Impala has been pretty consistent on a quarter-over-quarter. I think what you're probably seeing this quarter is one of the last deliveries slipped into Q2 from Q1. That's probably why Q2 is a little bit higher than the prior quarters. But typically, they're pretty consistent in terms of quantum of deliveries.

More generally though -- Brian, there is -- you can expect to see slightly higher deliveries coming out of the Styldrift mining area in the next year or two. The company has been very public about increasing output of that mine, not hugely, but there is an uptick from the current levels expected.

Right. But if I would start just to look at it, so divide by 2 over the 6 months and have a bit of a ramp and adjust for the gold price, is how I should think about it?

Yes. That's reasonable perspective.

That concludes our question-and-answer session. I will now turn the conference back over to Mr. Sheldon Vanderkooy for closing remarks.

Thank you, Angela. And thanks, everyone, for dialing in to our call. We've had a very strong start to the year, and we're looking forward to continuing the performance over the back half of the year. Thank you all for attending.

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.