Ronald M. DeFeo
Analyst · now on, market share is more important
Thanks, Phil. Turning to Page 10. I wanted to provide some detail relative to our 2013 outlook. We're expecting net sales of between $7.9 billion to $8.3 billion, which is an 8% to 13% increase, a gross margin of about 21%, slightly up from the adjusted 2012 levels, an SG&A rate of about 13%, slightly down from 2012, and an income from operations of between $600 million to $650 million, which results in an earnings per share of $2.40 to $2.70 or an EPS growth of approximately 30% to 45%. We expect about 40% to 45% of the annual EPS to be in the first half of the year, with the second quarter of that first half representing about 75% to 80% of the first half's earnings. So that's how we expect the year to develop. Now turning to Page 12. We will detail how we anticipate net sales will develop by the year and by segment. I'd like to highlight that I believe net sales will start slowly in 2013, and will have a relatively weak first quarter. But we expect to strengthen significantly in the second quarter with a strong third and fourth quarter, particularly compared to 2012. Our Aerial Work Platforms business is expected to be our strongest segment overall with net sales growing from 15% to 25%, driven primarily from a positive replacement cycle in North America and Europe. In addition, we expect some positive pricing. We are encouraged by the positive signs we are seeing in Europe. These come directly from customer inputs and customer conversations. The Construction business, conversely, will continue to be under net sales pressure, particularly from Europe. And we may not grow at all or on a more optimistic basis, with Developing Markets in North America expanding, we have a up to 10% growth potential. We will focus this business on select products and in select markets, and we will continue to look for developing deeper relationships with new selling partners. In Cranes, we are expecting 10% to 20% improvement in net sales. The strength will come from North America Developing Markets and new products. We are expecting Europe to bottom out and not to be the negative drag it was in 2012 but no growth. In the Material Handling & Port Solutions business, we expect growth of about 5% to 10%, mainly from a large port projects later in the year and some stabilization on our Material Handling or overhead Cranes business. It is the European Material Handling business that is the softest. And we expect to be working on ways to reduce costs further and to adapt to the realities of a softer overall market while focusing on growth in the Developing Markets. And lastly, in the Materials Processing business, we expect a 5% to 15% growth, with new products, continued expansion of the North American operations and a relatively stable business elsewhere. Turning to Page 12. Let me highlight our margin -- our operating margin outlook. Obviously, net sales growth of 8% to 13% noted on the prior page, coupled with a 1 to 2 percentage point margin improvement has a significantly positive bottom line impact. We expect a good portion of this improvement to come from our AWP business, where we see increased price realization and net sales volume. We're expecting the 2013 margin to be in the 11% to 14% range. While that's a rather large range, we do not want to make -- we do want to make sure we achieve both growth and profitability. As we get deeper into the recovery, it is more critical to protect share. Construction. We are expecting a very moderate 1% to 3% margin as we do not expect to benefit much from the divestiture and restructuring until later in the year and in 2014. And in the Cranes business, where we achieved 10.4% adjusted operating margin in 2012, we're expecting a 10% to 12% operating margin as we benefited from the cost reductions and margin improvement efforts that took place in 2012. But now we will focus on growth again, particularly in the non-EU markets. Material Handling & Port Solutions business will not see big margin improvements in 2013, but we are expecting margins of 3% to 5%. And let me remind you that this business carries a higher D&A than many of our other businesses, and we are seeing the EBITDA margin for this business in the range of 6% to 8% for the year. However, there will be further changes during the year that adapt to the structural cost realities of the current market. There may be some charges for these changes that we have not yet anticipated. In the Materials Processing business, we are expecting an 11% to 13% margin compared with the 11.3% achieved in 2012. So overall, we are expecting a 7% to 8% operating margin compared with an adjusted 6.4% in 2012. Turning to Page 13. And probably the most important strategic page in the presentation is what does this really mean for who we are at Terex. Essentially, we have transitioned ourselves to becoming a lifting and material handling solutions company. That company is focused on operational improvement, not acquisitions, as the main driver of future financial performance. The businesses that we are managing today are leaders in substantially all of the product categories where we compete. We are very geographically diverse, which will allow us to capture global opportunities and focus our company as we continue to concentrate on profitable growth with consistent cash generation. So turning to Page 14. This is how we expect to drive the company's performance toward the goals of 2015 mentioned earlier in this call. We will spend more detailed time on this at our planned investor day on March 20 in New York City. The bottom line is net sales is expected to grow from $7.3 billion in 2012 to approximately $10 billion. And our operating profit from about $468 million as adjusted in 2012 to about $1 billion in 2015. You can see where we expect this performance to come from relative to each segment. Obviously, segment-by-segment forecasting at this stage is difficult and may change over time, but we're committed to the overall objectives for the company. There may be some additional things that change here. But frankly, as we look at the company, we believe these goals are reasonable and achievable, and again without acquisitions. So let me summarize on Page 15. We have solid execution in 2012 of the goals that we set at the beginning of the year. There were clearly challenging market conditions, particularly in the back half, but the company continued to focus on operations and is much stronger today than a year ago. We repositioned ourselves as a lifting and material handling solutions company and are optimistic about our 2013 guidance, which indicates net sales will grow between 8% to 13% and an EPS of $2.40 to $2.70. Free cash flow of $500 million will be very positive and we'll continue to use that free cash flow to pay down debt. As we reflect overall on the 2015 goals of $10 billion and a $5-plus EPS with a 15% return on invested capital, we think the company is on a pathway to sustained prosperity for the coming several years. We remain focused on improving the things that we can control and addressing the strategic and structural issues of our underperforming businesses. Now operator, I'd like to open it up for questions. Thank you.