William Marth
Analyst · Cowen & Company
Sure, Ken. Appreciate the question. A couple things – you have to really think about the enormity of this business, right? When you have in a single quarter the loss of (inaudible) Cozaar, the loss of exclusivity, right? It costs you $161 million. Just the change in Lotrel alone with incoming competitors – 38 million; Protonix – 48 million; Eloxatin – 63 million; Pramipexole, which is Mirapex – 64 million; and Yaz, which is Gianvi – 97 million. That’s $471 million in a single quarter (inaudible). Not only that, the delta in (inaudible) from quarter to quarter was about $159 million from Q1 to Q2. So those are just huge variations. Now we’ve had launches of Triamcinolone, Clonidine patch, Ancidine (phon), Diazepam gel – some of those launches, but they were relatively small. So as we move forward, we know we’ve got some good launches. We laid those out for you – olanzapine and a whole bunch of other products that we think are very interesting moving forward. So yeah, the launches get better as we move forward, and the one thing I would mention about ’12 that I don’t think people are thinking about – there are a lot of launches in ’12, and we’re excited about ’12. But there is not a tremendous amount of exclusivity in ’12. There’s a lot of NCEs, so you have to think about the competition that’s going to be there. But yeah, and you couple that with Jerusalem, which was an issue; Irvine, which was an issue that we’ve spoke to, and those are all improving. Jerusalem, we’re over. We feel great about it. Approvals are coming again. Irvine – it’s coming back slowly. It’s incremental, because you’ve got to bring some new products back. We believe another seven products will come back into commercial in the next couple of months. So again – gradual improvement there. So yeah, I’m excited about this business, but it is gradual improvement. It is the largest generic business on earth. People can’t forget that. And it’s going to go up and down with exclusivity, but it is still one big business. We have a ton of files out there. There’s a huge number - 185 files, 77 of them are first-to-files, and just the first-to-files alone are about 54 billion.