Earnings Labs

Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited (TEVA)

Q4 2008 Earnings Call· Tue, Feb 17, 2009

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Fourth Quarter 2008 Results Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. (Operator Instructions). As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Ms. Elana Holzman of Teva Pharmaceutical Industries. Thank you, you may begin.

Elana Holzman

Management

Thank you, Diego. Good morning and afternoon everyone. Welcome to Teva's fourth quarter and full-year 2008 earnings call. We hope you have had a chance to review our press release, which we issued earlier this morning. A copy of the press release is available on our website at www.tevapharm.com. Additionally, we are conducting a live webcast of this call that is also available on our website. Today we are joined by Shlomo Yanai, President and Chief Executive Officer; Eyal Desheh, Chief Financial Officer; Bill Marth, President and CEO of Teva North America; Moshe Manor, Group Vice President of Global Innovative Resources; and Gerard Van Odijk, President and CEO of Teva Europe. Shlomo and Eyal will begin by providing an overview of our results. We will then open the call for question-and-answer period. Before we proceed with the call, I would like to remind everyone that the Safe Harbor language contained in today's press release also pertains to this conference call and webcast. Shlomo?

Shlomo Yanai

President

Thank you, Elana. Welcome everyone and thank you for joining us today as we review Teva's result for the fourth quarter and full-year 2008 and provide outlook for 2009. 2008 was an extraordinary and exciting year for Teva. It was a record breaking year across the board. For sales, adjusted net income and of course, cash flow. I believe that especially against the background of a troubled world economy, our results this year emphasize the fundamental strength of solidity of Teva's balanced business. Our balance of geographies and product lines provide us a natural hedge against risk and enable us to deliver continuous profitable growth, even under challenging market conditions. Our strong result under this conditions also I believe highlight the many advantages that Teva enjoys as the global generic leader. Our expertise in leveraging economies of scale and our ability to provide a quick and agile response to changing market conditions. Before I describe the year in a greater detail, I would like to briefly review our results for the fourth quarter. Teva's net sales in Q4 reached a record breaking $2.8 billion with gross margin of 56%. Our operating profit was $704 million with adjusted net profit of $634 million and all of this ultimately brought us to the adjusted diluted EPS of $0.76. All in all, this was an excellent quarter which provided a strong end to the year. Now let us turn to the full-year of 2008, a year in which we had record sales of over $11 billion which reflects 18% growth year-over-year. Record operational profit of $2.7 billion, record adjusted net income of $2.4 billion and record adjusted EPS of $2.86 exceeding our most recently updated EPS guidance of $2.79 to $2.85. We also had record cash flow from operations of $3.2 billion and…

Eyal Desheh

Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Shlomo, and good day to everyone. I hope you have had an opportunity to review the press release we issued earlier today. This was another strong quarter for Teva ending an exceptional year. I would like to take the next few minutes to review with you the results in detail. Before I delve into the numbers, I would like to note briefly that we are once again presenting GAAP and non-GAAP results for the quarter and full-year of 2008 inline with the format we used in the past. For Q4 2008, we excluded the following items from our GAAP results, $992 million of in-process R&D in connection with the acquisition of Barr. $272 million related to the impairment of financial assets primarily option rate security, and $107 million related to the impairment of intangibles and other assets primarily in connection with product rights acquired through our acquisition of Sicor, and $17 million representing the net expense in connection with few legal settlements in the quarter. $75 million paid out and $58 million received. In addition, the related tax effect of $66 million. As indicated in the past we present non-GAAP figures to show how management and our Board look at our financial results. As Shlomo mentioned, we had another quarter of record revenues with more than $2.8 billion in sales, an increase of 11% compared to Q4 last year. Excluding the items detailed above, non-GAAP net income grew by 11% to $634 million in Q4, and non-GAAP earnings per share was up 10% to $0.76. On a GAAP basis and as a result of the above mentioned items, we recorded a net quarterly loss of $688 million and a loss of $0.88 per share on a per share basis. For the full-year of 2008, sales grew by 18%…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. (Operator Instructions). Our first question comes from Randall Stanicky with Goldman Sachs. Please state your question.

Randall Stanicky

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please state your question

Great, thanks guys for taking my questions. A couple of brief ones, Eyal, just to clarify, does the 320 to 340 range, does that exclude all of Teva's amortization or just specific parts of that?

Eyal Desheh

Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, that includes all amortization including the ones that relates to acquisition made in the past. You will see we are providing all the details for comparison on our website a little latter after the end of the call. We had about $140 million of amortization in 2008 from prior acquisition and Barr, of course, is adding a significant number. But that excludes everything.

Randall Stanicky

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please state your question

Great and then going forward, when you update guidance that's the number we should look for to be updated, is that correct?

Eyal Desheh

Chief Financial Officer

Yes, absolutely.

Randall Stanicky

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please state your question

Okay, great. And then last question, in terms of the specific line items of guidance that you gave for 2009, I guess I did not hear if you gave R&D. But the question is, should we expect any meaningful quarterly variation around those ranges, is there anything that we should be thinking about?

Eyal Desheh

Chief Financial Officer

Yes, of course, this is not a triumph and the business is going to vary from one quarter to another, both level of expenses and level of revenues. As we said, the year is going to improve from one quarter to another. Both in terms of margins and in terms of results, the margins that I gave you are average for the year but its going to vary.

Randall Stanicky

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please state your question

And did you give the R&D?

Eyal Desheh

Chief Financial Officer

The R&D ranges between 7% to 7.5% of sales.

Randall Stanicky

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please state your question

Perfect. Thank you.

Eyal Desheh

Chief Financial Officer

You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Greg Gilbert with Banc of America/Merrill Lynch. Please state your question

Greg Gilbert

Analyst

Thank you. First the US question for Bill, whether or not you are building it in your model, can you discuss the potential for the pricing environment to improve in '09 versus '08 in terms of the typical shrinkage rate on the base business you have been seeing and perhaps comment on some of those factors. And then I have one for Gerard if he is on the call?

Bill Marth

Analyst · Bernstein. Please state your question

Thanks for the question, Greg. Right now we have seen pricing remain stable for, I feel like I have been saying this for a long time. I guess I have, for the last two years. We have not really changed our model at all, I do not anticipate that at this time. And we think that taking cautious approach is the right thing to do.

Greg Gilbert

Analyst

In terms of Europe can you talk about growth on constant currency excluding Bentley, and then Gerard, perhaps you can talk about what you see as an exciting growth opportunity in Europe in '09 perhaps the most exciting versus the biggest challenge that you see in the European climate in '09. Thanks.

Shlomo Yanai

President

Gerard.

Gerard Van Odijk

Analyst

Yes, Shlomo.

Shlomo Yanai

President

Gerard can you take this one.

Gerard Van Odijk

Analyst

Yes, I will. Thank you, Greg. First of all I think it's a very mixed picture across Europe. And if you take UK, the underlying growth is coming back. If you remember, '08 was the year in which the government took out 400 million sterling out of the system which all companies were seeking compensation for that; we did very well in that circumstances. I believe that many if not all of our competitors. So that is not going to happen in '08 in '09 again. So it means that growth in '09 we will do better versus '08. The second good news I think should be coming from Germany, is the AOK will play out as we are currently expecting it to play out in terms of the tender, we should be able to reap the benefits of our performance offering in that tender. In combination, of course, the factors we should see from bringing together the Pliva AWD business bringing them together with the Teva business in Germany. Thirdly, France is looking very hopeful. We have been extremely good and successful in the last year in terms of our competitiveness. We have turned around that business to be one of the most competitive element of our franchise in Europe and we are doing very well there. We catch up on [Sando]. We are number three in the market. I am sure they will not sit on it, so it will continue to be a very tough market but we are doing well in beating the marketplace there. Spain, with Bentley we have almost 10% market share now. We have the answer to all of the different dynamics in the different parts of the Spanish market. We expect the Spanish market to continue to grow in the next few…

Shlomo Yanai

President

Yes, just to answer the question about the contribution of Bentley, from the 14% growth in the quarter in the European currency, Bentley contributed approximately 3%.

Greg Gilbert

Analyst

Thanks for the clarification.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Ronny Gal with Bernstein. Please state your question.

Ronny Gal

Analyst · Bernstein. Please state your question

Good morning folks. Couple of them, First, regarding R&D percentage, I think you mentioned it will stay somewhere between 7% and 7.5% of revenue. I was kind of wondering if you think it will remain in that way or are we are looking to raise it overtime? I am kind of thinking with the percentage of revenue you are trying to generate from innovative businesses, you should conceivably move more towards a branded business like investment in R&D, and then I got a follow-on for Bill.

Shlomo Yanai

President

Ronny, Shlomo, let me first answer you on where we are heading with the R&D expenses. As you may recall, when we launched the 20-20 strategy, we said that for a couple of years, we are gong to increase our R&D expenses in order to enhance our product portfolio and to capture the advantages that we found in that area. So, it's not going to stay there for, I mean this level of expenditure will not be there forever. It's part of the 2X initiative for the coming year and maybe for another year, and then I can say that you probably will see us getting back to the 6.8%, 7%.

Ronny Gal

Analyst · Bernstein. Please state your question

I am actually asking why it's not going the other way, Shlomo. I was wondering why it's not going more to a 10%. Given that a company which has almost derived half of its profit from innovative products, since you will be spending more on branded R&D or maybe this simply does not include acquisition that you intend to make.

Shlomo Yanai

President

No, it's about, first of all, the major of our business is generics. But in the innovative arena, we may increase some expenditure, depends on the level of the success of our R&D there. But as we see it now, and definitely if we will have to increase that, that means that we are in a good shape because it means that we are having some successful achievements, then we will stay in this level of expenditures.

Eyal Desheh

Chief Financial Officer

Ronny, if I can add something, you can very easily calculate them. I am sure you have done this already that we plan to spend more than $1 billion in R&D next year or this year, actually in 2009. The mix probably, I mentioned before, there was 60% generics and 40% all the rest. We will probably see more going into the beyond generic arena as part of this $1 billion. So, the mix is also going to change internally. And of course, this is with Barr and there are plenty of synergies over there.

Shlomo Yanai

President

Bill, do you want to add something?

Bill Marth

Analyst · Bernstein. Please state your question

Yes, the only other thing I would say is again that level of the spending will depend on the opportunities as we have said, and a lot of that depends on biologics as well. So we will be funding that.

Ronny Gal

Analyst · Bernstein. Please state your question

Okay, thanks. Bill, a couple of quick ones for you. If you can quickly review for us the Imitrex situation and if you can care to make a comment about the issue of the 30 month stay for the recent released antibiotic, I don't know what your thinking is on this matter?

Bill Marth

Analyst · Bernstein. Please state your question

Well let's take the first one with respect to Sumatriptan. Sumatriptan, as you know, we launched last week. We were first to file as we won two patents and Ranbaxy just filed one already in the market. We launched with a ready deal with the four compliment of all strengths, we launched with all strengths. Ranbaxy launched with a single strength at 100 milligram. So, we are shipping our products, we are gaining share, we feel good. Right now, we are targeting roughly 40%, it should transition up to about 40% share and we will see where it takes us from there. The second piece, the 30 months stay on the antibiotics.

Ronny Gal

Analyst · Bernstein. Please state your question

Yes.

Bill Marth

Analyst · Bernstein. Please state your question

And what is the question?

Ronny Gal

Analyst · Bernstein. Please state your question

Question is, if you can just give us what your lawyers are telling you about whether those products are eligible for 30 months stay or will you be able to come in earlier than that?

Bill Marth

Analyst · Bernstein. Please state your question

I think it's still unclear at this point in time.

Ronny Gal

Analyst · Bernstein. Please state your question

Okay. And one last question's a request, if you wouldn't mind putting on line the Barr numbers for fourth quarter just to ease our ability to transition the numbers forward?

Shlomo Yanai

President

The Barr number?

Ronny Gal

Analyst · Bernstein. Please state your question

Yes.

Shlomo Yanai

President

I do not think we are going to put it online, Barr does not exist anymore as a public company and I can tell you that the numbers are more or less in line with their forecast. But I do not think I will detail you on that.

Ronny Gal

Analyst · Bernstein. Please state your question

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And next question comes from Ken Cacciatore with Cowen and Company. Please state your question.

Ken Cacciatore

Analyst · Cowen and Company. Please state your question

Hi good morning, thanks guys. Question, Shlomo if you could repeat what your 2010 growth assumption was and I believe that was off of the GAAP figure, the 2.85 to 3.05, if you could let us know if that also was applicable to the cash figure and falling on that is the, can you talk to us about the amortization levels in 2010, should we assume that they are relatively constant or do they go down in 2010. And then I have a question for Bill as well?

Shlomo Yanai

President

Well first of all I gave the numbers, of course based on the old methodology that you used. But the percentage are the same percentage. So if you wish to do it the old way or the new way, you should just add 30% to 35% to our 2009 expected results.

Ken Cacciatore

Analyst · Cowen and Company. Please state your question

Okay so roughly a 3.70 to 4.10 without holding you the numbers, are we working the math pretty much right on a GAAP basis.

Shlomo Yanai

President

Okay, if you are doing the math the right way ,you will be there probably.

Ken Cacciatore

Analyst · Cowen and Company. Please state your question

Okay thanks. And Bill just on the US line, without getting into our specific numbers, versus yours, it looked like it was a little weaker than we would have thought with the Pulmicort booked, and before you answer that. I also want to get this into, say Eyal, if you just take the Teva standalone numbers for 2008 and add roughly a flat Barr in 2008, you get to the low end of that $14.1 billion guidance. Are you modeling this conservative or is the currency really took a pretty significant hit. Thank you?

Shlomo Yanai

President

Okay, Eyal, you want to take it first.

Eyal Desheh

Chief Financial Officer

I could tell you, I think you heard Shlomo, one of the major impact is the foreign currency? We have to remember what happened between the 2008 average foreign exchange rate and the ones that we expect today and we are not trying to speculate where foreign currencies are headed, we are taking the current rate $1.28 per year, for example, compared to almost $1.5 in 2008. That has an impact on top line but as you have seen that the bottom line is not suffering from that impact. Foreign currencies change their directions, I will be very happy to take the addition to the sales. But this is the major impact. In 2008, foreign exchange rates, our sales forecast would exceed $15 billion from $15.1 billion to $15.6 billion.

Ken Cacciatore

Analyst · Cowen and Company. Please state your question

Great.

Eyal Desheh

Chief Financial Officer

But it's all about foreign exchange rate.

Bill Marth

Analyst · Cowen and Company. Please state your question

Ken, this is Bill Marth. With respect to your question on Q4 2008 versus Q4 2007, I would make sure your point before we talk specifically about Pulmicort that you remember Q4, 2007 included oxycodone, Welbutrin, and unless you forget there was that launch of Panto that we spent so much time on. So when you look at the two quarters, I think actually the fourth quarter of 2008 was very, very good. That notwithstanding, I believe, the majority of Pulmicort was recognized. But I would also remind you that on Pulmicort price, don't be too aggressive, because when we launched Pulmicort we did not know that we would be exclusive in that market. We had Barr chasing us and in fact they actually did have some products in the channel.

Shlomo Yanai

President

Ken, it's Shlomo. Let me just add one more comment on the foreign exchange impact on Teva as we are going into probably a very volatile, or unknown foreign exchange trend. Generally speaking, the foreign exchange would impact more of the top line rather on the bottom line, because there it's market is what it is. Having said that, when it comes to be a bottom line part of the P&L, then it's both, our managerial efforts to manage it, and to certain degree to compensate by having our business a valid business model, then of course, by other managerial actions that we are taking in order to cope with the current situation. So, even though if you can see kind of a fluctuating top line, we believe that we would be able to absorb part of it and to manage the bottom line.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Chris Schott with JP Morgan. Please state your question.

Chris Schott

Analyst · JP Morgan. Please state your question

Great, thank you. On the M&A front, you've obviously just concluded a deal that involved adding additional leverage. Can you just comment on your interest in continued M&A especially with several generic assets potentially available and just maybe update us on your current M&A priorities. Then I have a couple of questions for Bill.

Shlomo Yanai

President

M&A by definition is part of Teva's strategy, but right now we are focusing on digesting Barr. We believe that this is the major effort for Teva for 2009. And having said that of course, we are scrutinizing all opportunities. And as we said, we probably are the most equipped company to capture opportunity if we come to the conclusion that this is the right opportunity and the right time.

Chris Schott

Analyst · JP Morgan. Please state your question

Great, thanks. And just couple of quick questions, the HFA Albuterol market with ProAir, just the expectations of this market heading into 2009, that we are going to pass the conversion phase. How do we think about pricing in that environment? And then just finally quickly, Lotrel, does your guidance assume additional generic competitors there in 2009? Thanks.

Shlomo Yanai

President

Bill?

Bill Marth

Analyst · JP Morgan. Please state your question

Chris, thanks for the question. The HFA market as we said, we have got about 59% share right now. We are not necessarily projecting that we are going to continue to hold down that amount of share through the totality of 2009. It's still great product, and it's converting; almost all CFC is gone and there are still few traces out there, but by and large it should be gone, so we see that’s going to smooth out. We did take a price increase as you remember in November, and now we have seen the competition has taken another price increase. So, we are just keeping an eye on it. Right now we feel comfortable where it is, but obviously it's a completely branded market in our eyes, and will be subject to price increases from time-to-time. The next question was on Lotrel, and right now you know that there are several players that may enter in the 30 month date somewhere around the March-April timeframe. One has to anticipate that there is potential for competition, but then of course, Sandos may bring some action, we will have to wait and see.

Chris Schott

Analyst · JP Morgan. Please state your question

Okay

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen due to time consideration please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Our next question comes from David Buck with Buckingham Research Associates. Please state your question.

David Buck

Analyst · Buckingham Research Associates. Please state your question

Yes, thanks. Two quick questions, first on the international and particularly the Russian market, you talked about the outlook you are expecting in 2009 given the currency volatility we have seen, and what efforts you are making to protect that business? And for Bill, a couple of quick US questions. First do you expect to have a self-manufactured generic Adderall XR in April and any update on Pantoprazole litigation? Thanks.

Shlomo Yanai

President

Hi, this is Shlomo. As far as your question about Russia, and I would, with your permission extend my answer not only for Russia, but all those countries that are facing a volatile economy situation. We enhanced our cash management policy and actions in this kind of countries. So, if you take Russia, the whole issue of hedging price increase increasing collection, credit policies and these kinds of methods that are used in this uncertain and volatile environment is part of our managerial effort. And we believe that Russia is the major and important country, will overcome this problematic time. But in the meantime when we will do both, we will try to increase our market share and of course protect our revenues.

David Buck

Analyst · Buckingham Research Associates. Please state your question

Sure. Do you think it can actually be a driver of growth again in 2009 or do you think it goes the other way?

Shlomo Yanai

President

I believe that we will increase our market share in Russia. I would like to remind you that part of the Pliva acquisition is a substantial business in Russia. It put us among the first ten companies in Russia. And we would like to build our future base there as we see Russia is one of the future growth engines for the geography part of Teva.

Eyal Desheh

Chief Financial Officer

David with respect to Adderall XR, what I can tell you is we will be launching the product in April of 2009 and whether it would be our product or not, it would depend on whether you get an approval, but that notwithstanding we will be launching the product in April of 2009.

David Buck

Analyst · Buckingham Research Associates. Please state your question

Okay. We haven't heard anything, I guess on the citizen petition?

Eyal Desheh

Chief Financial Officer

No. We haven't heard anything on the citizens' petition. And then the second part on Pantoprazole, we are pretty much where we were at the last time you and I spoke, that we are still waiting for the June 3rd decision and there has been no movement there. We don't anticipate a trial until either late 2009, or significantly into 2010.

David Buck

Analyst · Buckingham Research Associates. Please state your question

Okay. Great.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Rich Silver with Barclays Capital. Please state your question.

Rich Silver

Analyst · Barclays Capital. Please state your question

Yes. Just on the cost synergies, this $400 million in the third year, is that the run rate by the end? And the second question is the breakdown of the synergies, any further detail on that?

Eyal Desheh

Chief Financial Officer

Hi, Rich, it's Eyal. Regarding 400, we upped the number from an initial preliminary estimate of 300, this is by the end of 2011 of course, it has to build up. The products on the costs of sales and production streamlining of production facility that takes the longest, and it will take time. Yes, we do see some expenses leaving the system a little earlier and the numbers to be bigger than what we initially thought. It's clearly going to improve as we go along. With regards to some more details, I think I mentioned this in my part before, everybody on the line has been invited of course, to join us tomorrow, in New York, we will provide some more detail as to in what areas this is happening.

Rich Silver

Analyst · Barclays Capital. Please state your question

Okay. Just one more, which is on foreign exchange, just so I better understand. You talked about 2010, any assumptions, but for 2009, is the assumption constant currency, or are you are actually forecasting some change versus where we finished '08?

Eyal Desheh

Chief Financial Officer

Not sure, I followed the question.

Rich Silver

Analyst · Barclays Capital. Please state your question

Is the forecast based on constant currency?

Eyal Desheh

Chief Financial Officer

Yes, the answer is yes. The 2010 forecast?

Rich Silver

Analyst · Barclays Capital. Please state your question

No 2009.

Eyal Desheh

Chief Financial Officer

2009 forecast is based on the current exchange rate and some more conservative assumptions and part of the riskier countries we mentioned, Russia, places where we could expect currency to deteriorate a little further. We are a little extra careful, but by and large it's based on current currencies.

Rich Silver

Analyst · Barclays Capital. Please state your question

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Corey Davis with Natexis. Please state your question.

Corey Davis

Analyst · Natexis. Please state your question

Thanks very much. I appreciate your clarification on the growth rate for 2010, but I guess that begs the question. For a company of your size that's a pretty incredible growth rate on the bottom-line. So, where is the majority of that coming from? Is it mostly cost synergies, or is there a big component of revenue growth that you anticipate in 2010 as well?

Eyal Desheh

Chief Financial Officer

Okay, it's Eyal. Again without going into detail, we are focusing on '09, but we felt comfortable with 2010, and we probably ought to give it. It is based on basically three major factors. One, remember our agreement to pay royalties to Sanofi-Aventis on Copaxone, and on March 31, 2010. And from April 1, we are no longer paying debt. That’s one component. The other one is that we anticipate 2010 to be a pretty rich year in Paragraph IV and new generic product launches in the US, but also outside of the US. And in 2010, cost synergies on the Barr acquisition are expected to be higher than they were in 2009.

Corey Davis

Analyst · Natexis. Please state your question

Okay, and then quickly on Lonza, the joint venture that you have set up, could you elaborate a little bit more on the details, is this a true 50-50 economic split cost and revenues of profits, and down the line what percentage of your biogeneric, bio-similar products will you have to split with Lonza versus the 100% economics to Teva?

Shlomo Yanai

President

Okay. First of all, the Lonza is a 50-50 joint-venture, we show the investment and we show of course, the revenues and the profit. We see it as a very excited joint-venture, as I said in my previous biogenerics future part in the conference. I believe that this is a very compelling joint-venture. And we are targeting the majority of the big products in the industry for the timeframe of 2014-2016. The potential value of these products in bonded sales right now is about $30 billion. And this is actually where we are heading in this company JV.

Corey Davis

Analyst · Natexis. Please state your question

Okay, thanks very much.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Michael Tong with Wachovia Capital Markets. Please state your question.

Michael Tong

Analyst · Wachovia Capital Markets. Please state your question

Thanks for taking the questions. The first one I have is with respect to the quarterly progression that you have talked about for '09. In terms of being back-end loaded, if we backed out the inventory step-up that's going to hit you heavy in Q1 and Q2. Are there going to be improvements in the rest of the business, in the back half of the year to account for that, or it's just the renewable of inventory step-up?

Eyal Desheh

Chief Financial Officer

I will take the beginning and Bill can add to that. First of all, this is based on backing out inventory step-up or backing out amortization. So it's one of the reasons why we are doing this, not to confuse everybody, this is net of debt. Basically there are more generic launches in the second half of the year and Q2 than in Q1. And of course, the expense synergy with Barr will strive to be meaningful only in the second half of the year. It takes time to reduce cost, takes time to reduce number of people and we do this as you have seen already in a good fashion. So, for the second half of the year, it's going to benefit both from stronger business and new launches and low expense run rate. Bill, do you want to add anything?

Bill Marth

Analyst · Wachovia Capital Markets. Please state your question

Yes, Michael, just to add some color to what Eyal said, I think he is absolutely right. We have more launches on the back-end. In 2008, we launched 28 products with approximately $12.5 billion of innovative value. In 2009, we anticipate launching a similar number, but the market value is about $19.5 billion. But, however, if you look at the total potential launches that you have in 2009, you have as many as 38 with a total value of $32 billion or almost 30% of our entire pipeline becomes available to us. So, there is a huge potential for the back half of 2009. And you know, as we have spoken so many times before we risk adjust for this model, but you know, that gives you some clarity on what we are looking at in our risk adjusted model.

Michael Tong

Analyst · Wachovia Capital Markets. Please state your question

Great. And the second one is actually for Shlomo, about a year ago, when you talked about your five year strategy, I recall that in your view, growth in European business is going to be higher than in the US or North America. Given that you have Barr now, given what you saw in 2008, is that something that you are still seeing now or should we see a more balanced growth going forward?

Shlomo Yanai

President

I believe that if you net out the foreign exchange, that projection is still intact and is still valid. I believe the potential for growing generics in Europe is there, actually the higher the pressure of the peers on reducing the healthcare cost, you will see more friendly environment for generics. And all in all, case-by-case that is reflecting the European region. My projection in all perspectives and for the long run is there.

Michael Tong

Analyst · Wachovia Capital Markets. Please state your question

Thanks very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Caius Christoe with Morgan Stanley. Please state your question.

Caius Christoe

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please state your question

Good morning, thanks for answering the questions. Firstly a macro question. Given the tough global economic environment, the government is becoming increasingly interested in pro-generic measures and do you see governments in France and Japan showing more aggressive initiatives in 2009, 2010 to increase generic penetration. And secondly Bill, how do you see the Fentanyl patch market playing out given the safety concerns of Resliaub patches. Has the FDA communicated at all, if they are ultimately willing to remove the Resliaub patch in the market?

Shlomo Yanai

President

Let me first take the first part of your question. I do believe that from the strategic point of view, the current world crisis is favoring generics. Again the pressure on government that are struggling with budgets and cost reductions in many areas. One of the most compelling ideas there is to do or to go more for generics. Generics is actually about the affordable drugs and it's about having the same quality for less price. So, what I am saying is that, either it will take a little bit time here and there, and you can see some differences between the reactions of government. I do believe that all in all, the current crisis will accelerate the generic penetration. And just let me give you a simple number regarding the US generics. Every percentage point in the US market for generic means less $7 billion for the patients there. So, you can see how big the potential is to balance budgets and to reduce the cost of healthcare in our current world. Bill?

Bill Marth

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please state your question

Good morning, Caius, and thanks for the question. With respect to Fentanyl, I think given following the prescription gain, people have been asking us where this share was and you see quite a bit of gain in the last few weeks and in fact every week, over the last four weeks you have seen at least a thousand prescription growth. So, it's coming along quite well, we have gained share we thought we were going to gain and we are doing very well. That said, I have not heard that the FDA is necessarily going to be taking reservoir patches off. Although I got to say that there is a certain amount of customers that found the constant recall.

Caius Christoe

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please state your question

Okay, do you think the FDA is actually potentially looking to have two stable metric supplies in the market before considering transaction?

Bill Marth

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please state your question

I am sure they have been receiving many complaints, and I am sure there is some concern there. How far they are going to go exactly with that, I can't tell you.

Caius Christoe

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please state your question

Okay, thanks Bill.

Bill Marth

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please state your question

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Elliot Wilbur with Needham & Company. Please state your question.

Elliot Wilbur

Analyst · Needham & Company. Please state your question

Thank you. Just a couple of follow-up questions on the amortization expense for Eyal. Specifically what effective tax rate should we be thinking about in terms of looking at the after-tax impact of the amortization? Do you think your high teens rates, we have seen it come up with higher numbers and what you are adding back?

Eyal Desheh

Chief Financial Officer

Yes, I think I gave it -- the long set of data points that I gave you includes that as well, I said that the tax effect on the inventory step-up and the amortization is $250 million, if you calculate it’s above 33%.

Elliot Wilbur

Analyst · Needham & Company. Please state your question

Okay.

Eyal Desheh

Chief Financial Officer

So, we took a conservative measure as to what are the geographies where these things are happening.

Elliot Wilbur

Analyst · Needham & Company. Please state your question

Okay.

Eyal Desheh

Chief Financial Officer

They are not happening in Israel.

Elliot Wilbur

Analyst · Needham & Company. Please state your question

Fair enough. And then I want to ask you a follow-up question as well and make sure I am perfectly clear on this point, but with respect to the implied rate of growth in 2010, the 30% or 35% GAAP numbers in '09. In the merger document, there was a fairly significant step-down in the Barr related amortization in 2010, roughly $200 million. So, I guess I am thinking about, applying that same rate of growth to the new cash EPS basis, it didn’t seem like that would be appropriate to do sort of given that's a big step-down in amortization, works in your favor on GAAP EPS basis, but works against you on a cash EPS basis, so I just want to make sure that impacts?

Eyal Desheh

Chief Financial Officer

Okay. I want to clarify. We try to make your life simple here. This growth rate is based on the non-GAAP or what you call a cash EPS basis. It's not on the GAAP, it does not take into account the fluctuation and amortization at all. So, it's purely business with backing out the amortization and the inventory step-up.

Elliot Wilbur

Analyst · Needham & Company. Please state your question

Okay. And should we still be thinking about that large step-down in amortization expense in 2010 as was outlined in the merger document?

Eyal Desheh

Chief Financial Officer

Yes, but the growth is not resulting from that. It's eliminating the amortization altogether.

Elliot Wilbur

Analyst · Needham & Company. Please state your question

Right.

Eyal Desheh

Chief Financial Officer

The amortization in 2010 -- this is on the GAAP part, and amortization in 2010 will be lower than it has in 2009 as we said in the preliminary report. On the filing we now have the detailed schedule, and yes it is stepping down, not dramatically, it's not going to half of it's going to go down.

Elliot Wilbur

Analyst · Needham & Company. Please state your question

Okay. Alright. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, I would now like to turn the floor back over to Teva's President and CEO, Shlomo Yanai for closing comments.

Shlomo Yanai

President

Thank you all very much for joining us today. We hope to see you all in New York tomorrow where we will give some more color on the results, exciting biogenerics area, the Barr integration, and provide more on the 2009 outlook. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you all for your participation.