Mark E. Jagiela
Analyst · Evercore ISI.
Okay. A lot of topics there. Let me start with the yen and dollar issue. So our competitor being yen- and euro-dominated currency, in terms of their OpEx, certainly we'll see a benefit from the exchange rates over time since the tester market worldwide is predominantly a dollar-based transaction. We haven't seen any pricing changes as a result of that. And as they've indicated, hopefully, they'll take all of that to profit and will have a health ecosystem. But -- so on that front, nothing new and -- so we just watch and see what will happen. In terms of the year-to-year swings in the SOC market and around mobility, it's really more than just applications processors. It's a whole series of parts that includes the base band, the RF and the PMICs and a variety of other things that have coincidentally been on this even year-odd year cadence. And for example, in 2014, what drove it above average I would say was a series of things happened in that year. The diversity of new product introductions in the year was quite larger than normal. We had more flavors of new handset products coming to market than with the typical. And inside those handsets, there was more innovative capabilities and silicon than in a typical year, say the prior year of 2013. So those 2 things combined to drive test demand. The other thing that happened in '14 is there was, I would say, pent-up demand to refresh handsets in the consumer base. And so the level of ramp around those new product introductions to meet the surge of demand for the handsets was quite high. And if you look through the year, the level of shipments doesn't -- isn't flat for handsets. It kind of peaks perhaps in the fourth quarter. And so -- and people have to tool for that peak. And a year where the introductions may not be as, let's say, a lot of change in technology or diversity, a lot of that capacity can be smoothed out and reabsorbed. So I would say the fourth quarter peak last year in handsets is probably higher than normal. So that explains why last year was high. This year, we think, we'll be more like a 2013 market, where there certainly will be change but not at that level. So when we look forward to '16, why are we confident that '16 will be another surge year? And it really gets into what we see are the underlying new designs that -- and the technologies and complexity of the new designs that are currently in sort of a test chip mode that won't show up for another year and half. And when we look at that and just from that extrapolate, we say, boy, '16 should be another big year of a more complex introduction of more diverse products, and that should drive our market. So a long-winded answer, but that's how we look at it.