Kenneth Meyers
Analyst · JPMorgan
Thanks Doug. Good afternoon from Barcelona, the site of the 2014 Mobile World Conference. Just me and 80,000 others involved in the wireless industry, including vendors, operators and regulators from around the world. Besides seeing some great new products like the Samsung GS 5, I’ve also learned even more acronyms from my engineering friends during the week.
Before I begin my review of 2013 accomplishments, I would like to discuss our decisions as announced in the press release this morning, not to give guidance for revenues and profitability for 2014 at this point. This decision was based on a number of significant factors that have affected our ability to forecast with confidence. Those factors include: one, the unprecedented number of pricing moves that have occurred over just the past several weeks. As you know given our size, U.S. Cellular has mostly been a price taker, and we are in the midst of developing our competitive responses. Looking ahead, we also believe there is a high degree of uncertainty about that pricing environment over the next few quarters.
Two, related to this is our plan to introduce device financing in the second quarter. Different provisions in these plans can change the timing of revenue recognition dramatically. Even though the economic impact over the life of the plan is the same. Service plan pricing related to these offerings can also impact revenue recognition. And we are currently in the midst of finalizing our offerings in that area.
Three, as we have discussed, we have been and are currently experiencing elevated churn at least in part due to the recent billing system conversion. We have aggressive plans to bring churn down quickly over the next few months, but cannot predict just with accuracy just how quickly we will achieve those results. Those 3 factors combined with others, led us to the conclusion that we cannot forecast revenue and EBIT for adjusted income before income taxes for 2014, at this time with a degree of confidence that we require and you expect from us.
As the year progresses, we will reevaluate our ability to provide guidance for those 2 measures. We are however providing guidance for capital expenditures at this time. We expect those expenditures to be approximately $640 million down 13% from the $738 million we invested in 2013. To help you in thinking about our prospects and outlook for 2014 and to be as transparent as possible about our future results, I would like to provide you with some insights into the current trends that we are seeing.
We are having success attracting new customers to U.S. Cellular. Postpay gross additions so far this year are up nicely over last year. In the area of churn we are currently seeing a shift from voluntary, customers leaving us on their own accord, to involuntary, those that we are shutting off due to non-payment. Postpay voluntary churn [indiscernible] remain elevated, but has stabilized and even started showing modest improvement since hitting a peak during the fourth quarter.
For involuntary churn, we had been extending payment terms to allow time to clear up any customer questions about their bills. But we are now starting to catch up on non-payments. We are optimistic that once we have worked through that backlog over the next few months, we will begin to see total churn moving down.
Now moving on to Slide 6. We saw a lot of change in 2013, changes in our networks, our systems, our product offerings, our management team and our strategic focus that when combined create a foundation for the future that I’m excited about. On the network side, we now cover nearly 90% of our customers with 4G LTE using both 700 megahertz licenses and our original 850 megahertz cellular licenses. Our 850 megahertz LTE network, an industry-first, allowed us to launch the iPhone in November.
The iPhone was just one of the new products and services rolled out in 2013. We also introduced the Samsung GS 4, the Samsung Galaxy Note 3, the Moto X and we rolled out shared data plans in October. The iPhones, shared data and device financing are just a few of the new products and services enabled by the new billing system, which was launched last year.
As we discussed, despite the new capabilities of the system, this launch has not gone as smoothly as anticipated and efforts to remediate have not progressed as quickly as we want. We continue to resolve defects and believe we are making progress on these system issues. As I said earlier, we expect to see continued pressure on churn for the next few months. Steve will comment on the financial impacts of the conversion issues later in our presentation.
Getting back to products and services. We continue to migrate our customer base to smartphones, allowing them to get more and more data services at on our high quality LTE networks. As of year-end, 51% of our customers had smartphones and more than 80% of those smartphones were now LTE-enabled. While we just launched our shared data plans in the fourth quarter, we already had 5.5% of our customers on those plans at year-end, and that number is currently about 8%.
All of these factors contributed to the growth in data traffic over the last year. In our core markets, while total traffic - data traffic was up 97% year-over-year, the traffic on our LTE networks grew 11x and now represents 50% of total data traffic. In 2013, our customers used a total of 34.2 billion megabytes. Another area of change last year was the management team here at U.S. Cellular and I’m real excited to have Jay Ellison back, as a member of the team.
Jay joined us in November as Executive Vice President leading the sales and customer service efforts. His operational focus complements the technical and financial expertise of Mike Irizarry, our CTO and Steve Campbell our CFO. We all share a passion for serving the customer and then we are actively reigniting that passion across the company.
Also in 2013, we completed the sale of our Chicago and St. Louis properties along with a few other smaller markets for $480 million. And then returned the money to U.S. Cellular shareholders through our first ever special dividend. We’ve also sold, or have agreements to sell, other non-strategic spectrum for about $400 million. All in all, there was a lot of moving pieces in 2013, we challenged our organization and they responded well.
Now on Slide 7 you can see our priorities for 2014, which I will expand on in further detail on the following slides. Driving subscriber growth on Slide 8 is our highest priority for this year. Our belief that we can do this is based upon the following. First, we have the best device line-up we’ve ever had, absolutely no significant holes. Second, we have and will maintain competitive pricing plans with more innovation yet to come.
Three, we will continue to enhance and expand our distribution, especially through new relationships with national retailers. Four, our 4G LTE network is now available to 87% of our customers today and we expect that to expand that to over 93% during the year. And finally, we are committed to resolving the billing system issues and returning to providing our customers the exceptional customer experience, U.S. Cellular is known for. And we have a team of associates dedicated to getting back to that job.
As you can see on Slide 9, our value proposition revolves around the network. We intend to capitalize on the quality of our network and deliver data products and services like shared data plans and connected devices and applications, which leverage our network. U.S. Cellular has always differentiated itself by providing an exceptional customer experience. The idea behind membership is that we will ensure customers get a special experience, and we will continue to recognize customers with reward points.
And lastly, we plan to leverage our local knowledge and create a differentiated localized experience for our customers. This focus on the customer will be even sharper in 2014 in our mid-size and rural markets. Our objective is to make ourselves even more relevant to wireless customers in places like Wisconsin, Iowa, Maine and Nebraska to name a few. We are confident that all these components [indiscernible] together with our network at the core, will make the U.S. Cellular value proposition resonate with our current customers and be attractive to new customers.
Slide 10. In order to improve margins, you must turnaround our subscriber results first. We also must drive additional revenue growth on top of that. Adding the iPhone to our smartphone portfolio will help us to accelerate smartphone penetration. We have plenty of headroom on this front with almost half of our base still on feature phones. Shared data plans should allow us to capitalize on sky rocking data consumption, connected devices provide an opportunity to increase data usage on this revenue per account without a significant subsidy. All these activities should translate into additional data revenue and average revenue per unit.
As I said though there has been a significant number of price moves in the last few months. Given our size in the industry, we tend to be more of a follower in this area. We will continue to adjust to our environment and ensure our customers get not only the best network experience in all of our markets, but also receive a very competitive value.
And finally Slide 11. We will look to offset the increase in subsidy amount caused by more expensive 4G devices through programs such as device financing, which we’ll be rolling out in the first half. We believe we have all the pieces in place to stabilize and then to grow our customer base in 2014. Headwinds related to the full year impact of iPhone subsidies as expected will impact profitability, yet capital spending will come down as our build out of 4G LTE nears completion. All in all, 2014 will be an exciting year for U.S. Cellular.
Now to go into further details. Let me turn the call over to Steve Campbell. Steve.