Earnings Labs

Telephone and Data Systems, Inc. (TDS)

Q1 2010 Earnings Call· Mon, May 10, 2010

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. My name is Mason and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the TDS and U.S. Cellular first quarter 2010 conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers’ remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. (Operator instructions) Thank you. I would now like to turn the call over to Ms. Jane McCahon. You may begin.

Jane McCahon

Management

Thank you, Mason. Good morning and thank you all for joining us today. With me and offering prepared comments are Kenneth Meyers, Executive Vice President and CFO at TDS; Steven Campbell, Executive Vice President of Finance, CFO and Treasurer at U.S. Cellular; Alan Ferber, Executive VP, Operations at U.S. Cellular; and Bill Megan, Executive Vice President, Finance and CFO at TDS Telecom. This call is being simultaneously webcast on the Investor Relations section of both the TDS and U.S. Cellular websites. We believe our website are an effective and efficient way to provide information to the investment community and will continue to look for additional ways to use them. Some information during this call and subsequent Q&A period contain statements about expected future events and financial results that are forward-looking and subject to risks and uncertainties. Please review the Safe Harbor paragraphs in our releases and the more extended versions that will be included in our SEC filings. Shortly after we released our earnings this morning and before this call, TDS and U.S. Cellular filed 8-Ks, including press releases we issued this morning. Both companies have also filed their Form 10-Qs with the SEC this morning. In the past, we have posted reconciliations of any non-GAAP financial measures used in our conference call on the guidance and reconciliations page of our website. Given our introduction this quarter of adjusted OIBDA and free cash flow in our press releases, you will now find the required reconciliations contained within the releases and not that web page. We will be visiting the following cities over the next quarter or so. In May, I plan on visiting investors in Baltimore, Philadelphia and Delaware. And in June, Ken Meyers and I will be in New York and Boston. If you’d like to meet with us in any of these cities, please let me know and we will try to accommodate you if at all possible. Please keep in mind that TDS has an open door policy. So if you are in the Chicago area and would like to meet with members of management from U.S. Cellular, TDS Corporate, or TDS Telecom up in Madison, Wisconsin, the Investor Relations team will try to accommodate you calendars permitting. With that, I’ll turn the call over to Ken Meyers.

Kenneth Meyers

Management

Thank you, Jane, and good morning. I’ll make a few comments about the quarter, then turn the call over to the rest of the team who will cover the operating results. We will then take questions at the end of the prepared comments. Just a note. All comparisons unless otherwise noted are to results for the same quarter a year ago. Those amounts have been slightly revised for an immaterial error affecting revenue and current liabilities. We will be updating other quarters for 2009 shortly. In the first quarter, TDS operating revenues totaled $1.2 billion, down 3% from last year. Both business units continued to face intense competition, which ultimately affected revenues. However, both businesses continued on their data strategies and saw healthy data revenue gains. We continued to see a lot of opportunity around data and data revenues. Additionally, both business units continued on their customer service strategies and executed well as evidenced by reduced churn in each business. I’d like to take this opportunity to provide our thoughts on the SEC’s national broadband plan released on March 16th, establishing goals and making recommendations across a broad range of policy issues. While the plan is wide ranging, we believe it marks only the beginning of a long-term process of rule-making and in some cases, possible legislation. Shortly after the release of the plan itself, the SEC published a document laying out a rough schedule of more than 60 rule-makings and other proceedings expected to come out over the next 12 months. Many of these will address policy issues of importance to U.S. Cellular and TDS Telecom. And our policy teams will be actively engaged, working on our own and in concert with our industry associations where appropriate. We strongly support the SEC’s efforts to make more spectrum available for…

Alan Ferber

Management

Thanks, Ken. And good morning to everyone. In terms of the overall business environment, the first quarter definitely was challenging. We have begun to see some positive economic trends, including improved employment numbers. But the recovery continues to be slow and consumers continue to be cautious with their telecom spending. Within the industry, competition and pricing pressure remain intact. January brought more competitive pricing actions by competitors, and we acted quickly to ensure our customers receive similar benefits. Competition on price has become more prevalent across the industry, and we will continue to respond to stay competitive and protect our customer base. However, we remain focused on ourselves and extending our brand awareness by providing a better overall customer experience. In times like these, we believe that the wide variety of our service plans, including unlimited and bundles options together with innovative programs like Battery Swap and Overage Protection offer customers improved value and meet their needs very effectively. During the quarter, we added 24,000 net retail customers. And important driver of these results was improved churn rates for both postpaid and prepaid customers. Our postpaid churn was 1.4%, down from 1.6% from last quarter and down year-over-year from 1.5%. Prepaid churn of 6% was also down from 7.2% in the fourth quarter of 2009 and from 7.3% a year ago. These results indicate that our customer satisfaction strategy is really resonating with customers. In fact, our customer satisfaction measures and that promoter scores reached all-time highs in the first quarter. This is important and something we can leverage because building brand awareness and customer loyalty will be an even more critical component of our competitive strategy in the future. Like other carriers in the industry, we experienced weak postpaid results for the quarter. On a net basis, we lost…

Steven Campbell

Management

Thank you, Alan. And good morning, everyone. As Ken mentioned earlier, U.S. Cellular delivered solid financial results and cash flow for the quarter. To begin, service revenues for the quarter were $965 million, down $18 million or about 2% year-over-year, primarily due to declines in retail service revenues and inbound roaming revenues. Within the retail service component, we are very pleased by the continuing strong growth in our data revenues that Alan just mentioned. That has helped us to offset the expected decline in voice revenues. Data revenues for the quarter were $201 million, up 28% year-over-year. As a result of this strong growth in data as well as high regulatory recovery revenues, retail service ARPU for the quarter was up by $0.12 year-over-year to $46.99 despite the significant downward pressure on pricing that we’ve seen across the industry for the past several quarters. Data now represents 21% of service revenues, up from 16% a year ago. One of the key factors in the continuing growth in data is the increasing penetration in our customer base of smartphones and other data-intensive devices, including wireless modems. Sales of smartphones and other data-intensive handsets nearly doubled year-over-year while sales of wireless modems increased five-fold. As we look ahead, we are excited about the prospects for additional future growth in data revenues for a number of reasons. First, at this point, only 17% of our postpaid subs had smartphones and other data-centric devices. So we have plenty of room to grow in this area. And importantly, these are high quality customers who tend to have higher ARPU. Another factor is the ongoing expansion of our 3G network and the impact that the improved customer experience will have on data usage. As we announced previously, our 3G network will cover approximately 98% of our…

Alan Ferber

Management

Thanks, Steve. I’d like to wrap up the wireless discussions by saying a few words about some of our key initiatives and plans for the remainder of this year. Our business is connecting people, and our brand message is Believe in Something Better. Our Battery Swap program continues to be a strong proof point for our customer-centric strategy. For example, the East Coast was hit repeatedly with severe weather this winter, leaving customers without power, and Battery Swap helped many of our customers actually stay connected. By the end of the first quarter, we swapped 1.5 million since the program launched in May 2009. Another proof point supporting our brand messaging is our Overage Protection program launched in November. Customers really appreciate the value of this service and have been quick to opt in. As of the end of March, we had almost 1.5 million customers signed up. We expect to launch additional new and innovative proof points later this year as we continue to differentiate U.S. Cellular in the marketplace as the company that has the customers back. We are also excited about the coming launch of Android phones in the third quarter. Our initial launch will include the HTC Desire and the Samsung Acclaim, a U.S. Cellular exclusive. The HTC Desire is a sleek, high-end, full touchscreen device running Android 2.1 with a vibrant 3.7 in screen, 1 gigahertz Snapdragon processor, 5 megapixel camera, and WiFi. The Samsung Acclaim is a touchscreen with a slide-out QWERTY keyboard running Android 2.1 with a 3.2-inch AMOLED screen, 3 megapixel camera, and WiFi. Both devices will give customers access to the Android market and various Google applications and will be preloaded with U.S. Cellular applications such as My Contacts Backup, City ID, Tone Room, and Your Navigator. We expect to introduce…

Bill Megan

Management

Thank you, Steve and Alan. Good morning, everyone. Telecom results showed improvement in the quarter. Actions we have taken over time to build attractive service bundles and position them with competitive pricing, to introduce new commercial service offerings, and to control costs are having positive effects. The trends in revenue, cash expense, and excess line walks have all improved. Growth in our high-speed data subscriber base has also continued to be strong. We are still cautious on the impact of the economy, however, as our employment remains high and commercial customers remain hesitant to make buying decisions. For the quarter, TDS Telecom’s combined ILEC and CLEC revenues declined 1.9%. Revenue was flat in the ILEC, while CLEC revenue declined 6.7%. In the ILEC, we had strong growth in data revenues, offsetting the loss in voice revenues. The decline in voice revenues was due both to physical access line losses and lower ARPU driven by increased usage of bundling discounts. Network access revenue was flat with lower minutes of use, offset by some improvement in regulatory recovery. The decline in the CLEC is driven by the execution of our plan to limit investment in new residential customers, and therefore we expect that trend to continue. We continue our efforts to reduce the loss in physical access lines. Since beginning of 2009, we have been aggressively marketing new voice packages called Star packages, which include additional features and long distance minutes giving consumers a lot of flexibility in matching the service set to their needs in budget. At the end of March, we had 122,000 customers on these plans, which is approximately one-third of our customer base. We now have 51% of our residential customers on some type of voice package, up 11% from the previous March. As I mentioned, the strong…

Jane McCahon

Management

Mason, we’re ready for questions please.

Operator

Operator

All right. (Operator instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Ric Prentiss from Raymond James. Your line is now open. Ric Prentiss – Raymond James: Thanks. Good morning, guys.

Kenneth Meyers

Management

Good morning. Ric Prentiss – Raymond James: Couple questions if I may on sort of the wireless side. First, can you just give us a little more color maybe on ARPU trend, both postpaid and prepaid, now that you have data on both platforms? Just what are you seeing in the competitive world? You just say you saw some pressure, but just kind of thoughts on ARPU trends. And the second question is on postpaid particularly, obviously is a very live quarter for most in the postpaid space, is the game over in postpaid as far as subscribers? Is it all just getting upsold the data, and what are your thoughts as far as postpaid?

Alan Ferber

Management

Hey, Ric, this is Alan. I’ll start. On the ARPU side, what we are really seeing on the postpaid side of ARPU is really the effect of many of the pricing moves that were made in mid-2009. I think as we spend much more time right-sizing customers, we’re seeing a decline in voice ARPU over the past two or three or four months or so. We’re also seeing an expansion of family plan growth, and that has the effect of lowering churn, but also lowering ARPU. On the prepaid side, there is a lot of movement going around. As you know, our base is relatively small there and our growth is strong. But we are encouraged by our new set of rate plans and the high take rate we’re getting on the $59 and $69 voice and data rate plans. We’re seeing sort of a very large majority of our prepaid customers choosing those plans. On the postpaid side of the business, on the churn side, it’s a very favorable quarter. Our churn and our absolute number of (inaudible) is down year-over-year. What we really have is a growth issue in the first quarter as had everybody else in this industry as you indicated. I think there is probably three or four factors there. One, I think there was a pull-forward into the fourth quarter as a number of wireless carriers had aggressive smartphone activations. I think also we’re still seeing the effects of a relatively weak economy combined with lower tax refunds that usually provide a stimulus in the first quarter and use the results in the Valentine’s Day (inaudible) being a victory for us. And then lastly, I think we have seen reduced churn at our competitors. And so that a shrumpy available full of postpaid gross adds in the first quarter. I think looking forward, as we continue to execute on our strategy, we expect improvement there. Ric Prentiss – Raymond James: And as you look at, now we have April and little bit of May in the books, any thoughts on industry trends, either economy or post versus pre kind of growth rates, just kind of what you’re seeing in the marketplace?

Alan Ferber

Management

Yes. It’s pretty much the same. Ric Prentiss – Raymond James: Okay. Thanks, guys.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Simon Flannery from Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open. Simon Flannery – Morgan Stanley: Hi, thanks very much. Good morning. You mentioned interest in (inaudible) stock But stock at 318% data growth and I think your modems had grown something like five-told in terms of sales. Can you just talk about sort of stresses that’s put on the network if at all and how are you positioned regarding backhaul, and also to what extent you are sort of open to considering teeter [ph], usage base, data pricing or I think the industry may go there over the course of the year.

Alan Ferber

Management

Sure. This is Alan again. So, on the wireless modem side, we’ve obviously experienced impressive growth area, especially as we introduced the expanded EVDO networks. At this point, we don’t have any issues on our network. It’s still a relatively small part of our overall customer base, but it’s certainly something that we watch very, very closely, because the best network is very core to our overall experience. With regard to LTE, no new news there. The trial is ongoing and going well. No real surprises there.

Kenneth Meyers

Management

And as we said, we expect that trial to really continue until later this year, probably the September-October timeframe and we really don’t anticipate any kind of, what I would say, large-scale commercial deployment until sometime later in 2011.

Alan Ferber

Management

And in terms of various forms of tiered pricing, certainly we are watching as the other wireless carriers experiment on that front. I think every carrier agrees that going forward we need some improved alignment between pricing and usage. But at this point we don’t have any plans to introduce any form of tier pricing or speed throttling or things along those lines. Simon Flannery – Morgan Stanley: Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Phil Cusick from Macquarie Capital. Your line is now open. Phil Cusick – Macquarie Capital: Yes. Thanks for taking the call. I wonder if you can expand, first of all, on the cannibalization comment. One, is it something that’s acceptable and just the cost of doing business as you get more into the prepaid space? Do you think that it accelerates as you sort of do more of the prepaid side and promote that a little more? And then secondly, following up on Ric’s question, it seems like postpaid was weak for everybody, but 2Q tends to be weaker for you sequentially. Prepaid, the same thing. Should we expect that that typical seasonality holds or are you responding someway? Thanks.

Alan Ferber

Management

This is Alan again, Phil. On the overall cannibalization side, I would say it’s not material at this point, but it’s definitely going on. I think as consumers out there continue to respond to a difficult economy and are looking for options to manage their budgets, certainly prepaid becomes a palatable option for a sub-segment of them. I don’t see that accelerating into the future. With regard to second quarter versus first quarter, we don’t really talk about mid-quarter results. But in the marketplace, we’re not seeing anything that would indicate the market is changing a lot in the second quarter versus the first quarter. And of course, we’ll always continue to respond accordingly to any kind of moves out there in the marketplace. Phil Cusick – Macquarie Capital: Okay. And then second of all, you started with a pretty long sort of regulatory picture. I assume that that’s a message to the SEC. Are you considering pulling back on CapEx in either of the businesses given the uncertainty in the regulatory environment?

Kenneth Meyers

Management

Okay. So first of all, Phil, that was not a message to the SEC. We would use this vehicle for that rather. We’re just making sure everybody understood where we were at. Right now, because the funding mechanisms that our employees are still in place, we have made commitments to communities as well as to states to fund certain projects, and we certainly would never walk away from those commitments if the rules change going forward. And that affects the economics. We’ll have to readjust that then. But at this point in time, it was just – there is a lot of things in that proposed area. We just want to make sure we understood what we’re doing on it and where we see some challenges as well as some opportunities. Phil Cusick – Macquarie Capital: Great. Thanks, guys.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Robert Dezego from SunTrust Robinson Humphrey. Your line is now open. Robert Dezego – SunTrust Robinson Humphrey: Hi, thanks for taking the questions today. A question on roaming revenue, a little bit weaker than we had thought. And I think now that you are through, I think, the anniversary of the Verizon-Alltel roaming coming off the year-over-year comps, how do you see wireless roaming revenue trending over the course, in a couple of quarters? Are we going to probably get that back to a period of growth or is it just going to continue to decline?

Kenneth Meyers

Management

Well, I think we expect that the majority of year-over-year declines are behind us. As I mentioned earlier, we actually see that stabilizing and would expect to see small uptick later in the year. So I would say stabilization occur in second and third quarter and then a modest increase later in the year. Robert Dezego – SunTrust Robinson Humphrey: Okay. And then could you talk about the CEO search? Was the plan initially to go outside the sector to find the new CEO to lead the business? Do you think that was the direction you need to go? And could you talk about perhaps why you didn’t choose someone with an extensive wireless background here in the US?

Kenneth Meyers

Management

Yes. It was an extensive search that was done across the industries. I think about our company, our strategy, which is all around the customer. We want to further strengthen that area by getting a leader that shares that to you and the world. So while we look inside the industry and outside the industry, we are excited to be able to identify someone of Mary Dillon’s background. Robert Dezego – SunTrust Robinson Humphrey: Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

(Operator instructions) Your next question comes from the line of Michael Rollins from Citi. Your line is now open. Michael Rollins – Citi: Hi, good morning. Just curious, if you guys could talk about the margins on the wireless business, and I guess structurally if you look at some of the more mature wireless companies historically, what are the opportunities to take those margins higher and how should investors think about that over time?

Steven Campbell

Management

Mike, it’s Steve. I’d begin by saying, as you know, we’ve got guidance in the release, and that reflects our best thinking about margins in the short-term. Over the long-term, our goals are really focused on delivering an overall return, return on capital that exceeds our weighted average cost of capital. So, to do that, clearly we are going to have to increase margins. Probably our major focus there on how we do that is with our enablement initiatives that we’ve been talking about, which strongly support our customer satisfaction strategy and are going to help to differentiate us and drive growth on the ad side as well as helping us to drive efficiencies in the way we operate and to drive cost at. So over time, we are focused on margins. We fully expect that we will increase them. All that said, as you know, we’ve got a lot of uncertainty right now with the economy. Very intensive competition in the industry. And the investments that we’re making in those enablement initiatives. So right now, the guidance that you’re looking at is what kind of margins you should expect in the near-term. Beyond that, looking at the longer term, I wouldn’t really say the degree to which it could move or the timeframe that it could move. Michael Rollins – Citi: Thanks very much.

Operator

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I’ll turn the call back over to Jane McCahon for any further closing comments.

Jane McCahon

Management

Just wanted to thank everybody for their time today. Please contact us if you have any additional questions, and we’ll look forward to reporting back to you on our progress over the coming months. Thanks again.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today’s conference call. You may now disconnect.