Kevin Stein
Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead
Thanks Nick. Today, I will review our results by key markets and discuss the profitability of the business for the quarter, provide fiscal 2020 guidance, and then review some other operational items. As you've seen, we had a strong fourth quarter to end another very good year. Mike will provide more details on the financials. As Nick has said, full year revenue and EBITDA As Defined were up substantially over last year due in part to above-average organic growth as well as continued acquisition integration and performance. Now, we will review our revenues by market category. For the remainder of the call, I will provide color commentary on a pro forma basis compared to the prior year period in 2018. That is assuming we own the same mix of businesses in both periods. Please note this market analysis section excludes Esterline for fiscal 2019. However, we will begin to include the former Esterline businesses in our market analysis for fiscal 2020. In the commercial market, which makes up close to 70% of our revenue, we split our discussion into OEM and aftermarket. Our commercial OEM market revenue increased approximately 11% in both Q4 and for full year fiscal 2019 over the prior year periods. This full year OEM revenue growth exceeded our last guidance expectation of growth in the mid- to high single-digit range. This growth occurred despite a limited headwind from the impact of 737 MAX grounding. The 737 MAX situation is one we continue to closely monitor. Now, moving on to our commercial aftermarket business discussion. Total commercial aftermarket revenues grew by 9% over the prior year quarter. Total fiscal 2019 grew about 8%, in line with our full year guidance expectations of high single-digit percent growth. In the quarter, growth in the commercial transport passenger and freight markets was slightly offset by a decline in the interior submarket. Repairs and retrofits for Telair International on Boeing 747 freighters and retrofit igniters for G650 business jets from Champion were a few of the strong areas for commercial aftermarket worth noting. Overall, commercial transport fundamentals continue to remain relatively strong, although a few items bear watching. Global revenue passenger growth has decelerated slightly in the past few months, albeit growth is still near the long-term average. Additionally, cargo demand is weaker as FTKs have declined from reaching an all-time high in 2017. Now, let me speak about our defense market, which is just over 30% of our total revenue. The defense market, which includes both OEM and aftermarket revenues, was up approximately 7% over the prior year Q4. As a reminder, this quarter, we began to lap tougher prior year comparisons as our defense revenue started to accelerate in Q4 of last year. Full year defense revenue grew 14%. Last year, we reported strong defense bookings that we saw materialize into sales this year. This robust growth was well distributed and appears to be driven from most businesses that support defense-related platforms. Now, moving to profitability. I'm going to talk primarily about our operating performance or EBITDA As Defined. EBITDA As Defined of about $707 million for Q4 was up 35% versus prior Q4, and $2.42 billion or up 29% on a full year basis. EBITDA As Defined margin in the quarter of 45.9% was negatively impacted by acquisition dilution from Esterline. Excluding Esterline, margins in our legacy business were over 50% and improved both sequentially as well as over the prior year's quarter. Margin improvement progress is always important to us and indicates that our base business continued to find opportunities to drive improvement by using our value drivers. Now, let me give you an update on the Esterline integration and expectations. Over eight months post close, the Esterline integration continues to progress well. We have now largely wound down the former corporate office activities in Bellevue, Washington. The functions that used to be performed here have been migrated to the business units or moved over to our Cleveland corporate office. As noted before, we have equipped the Esterline integration team with senior TransDigm legacy EVPs who are teaching our culture and operating model around value generation to all new business units. We are making progress here, but as you know, culture change can be slow and requires constant reinforcement. To-date, we are exceeding our expectations for growth in this largest of TransDigm acquisitions. Turning now to 2020 guidance, also found on slide seven in the presentation. In general, continued global revenue passenger mile growth, a favorable environment for defense spending, both domestically and internationally, and generally positive economic conditions provide a backdrop for continued success and growth in the marketplace. Certainly, global trade dynamics, continued 737 MAX grounding and shipping delays, political risks, or other exogenous events could have a negative impact on market conditions for TransDigm. We will closely watch these, as we always do, and we'll react as necessary, including taking any preemptive steps that might be warranted. Based on this and assuming no acquisitions in fiscal year 2020, our initial guidance for continuing operations is as follows. The midpoint of our fiscal year 2020 revenue guidance is $6.25 billion or up approximately 20%. As in past years, with roughly 10% less working days in fiscal year 2020 quarter one, revenues, EBITDA, and EBITDA margin are anticipated to be lower than the other three quarters of fiscal year 2020, roughly in proportion to the lower working days. This revenue guidance is based on the following market channel growth assumptions. Note these pro forma market assumptions now include Esterline. We expect commercial aftermarket revenue growth in the mid-single-digit to high single-digit percent range versus prior year, commercial OEM revenue growth in the low single-digit to mid-single-digit percent range, defense military revenue growth in the mid-single-digit percent range versus prior year. The midpoint of fiscal year 2020 EBITDA As Defined guidance is $2.83 billion with an expected margin of around 45.2%, up almost 17%. This includes almost 6 points of margin dilution from Esterline. Again, we anticipate EBITDA margin will move up throughout the year, as we have seen in previous years, with Q1 being the lowest and sequentially lower than Q4. The midpoint of adjusted EPS is anticipated to be $20.50. Mike will discuss in more detail shortly -- and the factors impacting EPS. Finally, I would like now to briefly review some executive management changes. As you know, we continually work to improve our bench strength of promotable talent to keep a focus on succession planning. As such, we recently promoted Marko Enderlein and Patrick Murphy to the Executive Vice President role. Marko has worked for TransDigm for over three years as the President of the Telair International team. And prior to joining us, he spent over 15 years at Airbus in financial and leadership roles. Marko will be our first EVP in Europe, responsible for much of our European footprint. Patrick has worked for TransDigm for over 4 years now as the President of HarcoSemco and prior held a variety of senior roles in leadership at Danaher Corporation over an eight-year career. These promotions give us the resources we need to oversee the expanded group of business units following the Esterline acquisition as well as to backfill for Jim Skulina, who is retiring at the end of the calendar year. So, let me conclude by stating fiscal 2019 was another good year for TransDigm. We continue to be very pleased with the Esterline acquisition integration as well as the strong operational performance in our legacy businesses. We look forward to 2020 and expect that our consistent strategy will continue to provide the value you have come to expect from us. With that, I would now like to turn it over to our CFO, Mike Lisman.