W. Nicholas Howley
Analyst · Credit Suisse
Good morning, and thanks for calling in to hear about our company again. I'd like to start with some comments about our consistent strategy, the acquisition of AmSafe, our current sense of the status of the aerospace market as it applies to our business and a few miscellaneous items. To reiterate, we believe our business model is unique in the industry, both in its consistency and its ability to sustain and create intrinsic shareholder value through all phases of the aerospace cycle. To summarize some of the reasons why we believe this, and you can look at Page 4 of the slides, about 90% of our net sales are generated by proprietary products, and around 3/4 of our net sales come from products for which we are the sole source provider. About 60% of our revenue and a much higher percent of our EBITDA comes from aftermarket sales. Aftermarket revenues have historically produced a higher gross margin and have provided relative stability in the downturns. Because of our uniquely high EBITDA margins, typically about 50% of revenues and relatively low capital expenditure requirements, typically less than 2% of revenue, TransDigm's year in, year out generated very strong free cash flow. We pay close attention to our capital structure and view it as another means to create shareholder value. As you know, we have in the past and continue to be willing to lever up when we either see good opportunities or view our leverage as sub-optimum for value creation. We typically begin to delever pretty quickly. We have a well-proven, value-based operating strategy focused around what we refer to as our 3 value drivers: new business development, continual cost improvement and value-based pricing. We stick to these concepts as the core of our operating management methods. This consistent approach has worked for us through up and down markets and has allowed us to continually improve and increase the intrinsic value of our business while steadily investing in new business and platform positions. We have also been successful in regularly acquiring and integrating businesses. We acquire proprietary aerospace businesses with significant aftermarket content. We've been able to acquire and improve proprietary aerospace businesses through all phases in the cycle. Through our consistent focus on our operating value drivers, a very clear acquisition strategy and close attention to our capital structure, we have been able to create intrinsic value for our shareholders for many years through up and down markets. The just-completed quarter was active. We closed on the AmSafe acquisition for $750 million. To remind you, the AmSafe price includes tax benefits over the next 10 years to TransDigm in the range of $70 million on a net present value basis. The tax benefits are front-end weighted with about $20 million of them accruing to us in the first fiscal year of ownership. AmSafe is a good, solid proprietary aerospace business. It did about $260 million a year in calendar year 2011 with an EBITDA margin of about 25%. In the 7.5 months of our fiscal year 2012 ownership, we expect AmSafe to do about $175 million of revenue and about $50 million of EBITDA As Defined. The commercial aerospace margins are higher than the average, and the ground vehicle margins are substantially lower. About 90% of its EBITDA comes from commercial aerospace and military markets, of which the vast majority is commercial aerospace. We find the low military content, about 10% of the revenue, and very high commercial aerospace aftermarket content particularly attractive. Excluding the commercial ground vehicle business, about 85% of the revenues are aftermarket, primarily commercial transport aftermarket. The major AmSafe product lines are seatbelts and airbags for commercial aircraft, primarily commercial transport. They are qualified, usually exclusively, on all major commercial transport and regional aircraft. After 2.5 months of ownership, we are very comfortable with our ability to increase the value through a mix of all 3 of our value drivers. Though I don't know that this business can achieve EBITDA percent as highest as TransDigm average, we see significant upside at least as good as our acquisition case assumptions. We financed the acquisition with $500 million of incremental bank debt and from our cash on hand. The interest rate is LIBOR plus 3% with a 1% LIBOR floor, or 4% as of today. We also increased our revolver availability to $310 million as part of the process. We have now included AmSafe in our updated full year guidance. At 3/31/12, we had about $200 million in cash and over $300 million in undrawn revolver. We also, on average, expect to generate between $90 million and $100 million a quarter in additional cash for the last 2 quarters of fiscal year 2012. We have additional borrowing capacity under our credit agreement. We estimate our gross debt-to-EBITDA ratio on a pro forma basis at 3/31 reflecting the AmSafe acquisition as about 4.7x EBITDA. Our net debt to EBITDA is about 4.4. As in the past, absent acquisitions or other capital market activities, we will soon delever. Changing subjects a little, you may have seen we recently prevailed in the litigation against Eaton Corporation regarding improper retention and possible use of our intellectual property and nonpayment of certain aftermarket-related obligations. Just to make clear, we have here and will continue to vigorously protect our intellectual property. We have not included the litigation award in any of our guidance as we are unsure if or how much of it may be appealed, how we will fare on fee recovery issues and a number of miscellaneous peripherals. We also settled 2 retroactive contract adjustments with key customers for a total of about $11 million. These have been booked about evenly in Q1 and Q2 as revenue and income. Now with respect to our underlying markets and on a pro forma basis, that is assuming we own the same mix of businesses in both periods, the markets are a little bumpy, but generally on track. We see continuing signs of strong commercial aftermarket. The defense aftermarket, though less clear, is so far holding up better that we outlined in our prior guidance. Focusing a little bit on the different market segments. In the Commercial OEM, industry forecasters and airframe manufacturers continue to be optimistic regarding the commercial transport OEM production cycles. Rate increases are proceeding at both Airbus and Boeing. The 787 schedule is still unclear, but that won't materially impact fiscal year 2012. On a positive note, at least now there are some 787 airframe shipments. In total, our full year commercial transport OEM revenues on a pro forma basis are now expected to be up in the high teen percents versus the prior year. In business jets, though the outlook is mixed by airframe manufacturer, we expect mid to high-teen percent growth year-over-year. In the commercial aftermarket, we continue to see growth in worldwide passenger traffic, though not as high as last year's growth. To remind you, last year, our commercial aftermarket was up almost 25% on a year-over-year basis. This was likely not a sustainable level. This quarter, we saw modest increases over our prior Q2 in our commercial aftermarket revenue. Sequentially, commercial aftermarket revenues were about flat versus Q1 this year. On a positive note, incoming orders or bookings picked up nicely and are now running above our shipment levels on both a year-to-date basis and a prior Q2 basis, as well as sequentially. As I've said before, bookings can be lumpy. We are still guiding pro forma commercial aftermarket revenues to be up about 10% versus last year. We are watching this carefully. The revenue comps, I'll remind everybody, get tougher in the second half of the year. In the defense business, though there are still major uncertainties around defense spending, we now anticipate defense revenues to be flat to modestly up in fiscal year 2012. Though Q1 and Q2 were better than anticipated, we remain cautious. As I mentioned before regarding the commercial aftermarket, the defense comps also get tougher in the second half of the year. Military revenues are tough to predict, especially given the current U.S. political wins and the worldwide geopolitical situation. Now let me turn to the latest financial performance. I'll remind you this is the second quarter of fiscal year 2012. Our fiscal year started October 1, 2011. As I have said in the past, quarterly comparisons can be significantly impacted by differences in OEM aftermarket mix, large orders and transient inventory fluctuations in the system, modest seasonality and other factors. But the second quarter of fiscal year '12 was a good quarter. GAAP revenues were up about 39% versus the prior Q2. Organic revenues were up about 15% on a quarter versus prior quarter basis. Reviewing the revenues by market category, again on a pro forma basis versus the prior year, and you can see this on Slide 5, this is assuming we own the same mix of businesses in both quarters. I will note that these pro forma comps do not include the 2 most recent acquisitions, that's Harco and AmSafe, as we're still syncing their market reporting up with TransDigm's. In the commercial market, which makes up about 75% of our revenue, Commercial OEM revenues, as I said, were up 36% versus the prior Q2 and 28% on a year-to-date basis. Commercial transport OEM and biz jet OEM revenue growth were about in the same range. Excluding the impact of the retroactive contract settlements, the increase in revenues was a little over 20% on a year-to-date basis in the Commercial OEM sector. In the commercial aftermarket, revenue was up about 7% on a Q2 versus Q2 basis and about 13% on a year-to-date basis. Though the specifics are unclear, anecdotally, there seems to be indication of some inventory trimming at certain airlines and a generalized economic concern by European airlines. I can't at this time quantify this much further. As I mentioned, bookings are now running ahead of shipments on a year-to-date basis. We are watching trends here very closely, and we'll update you as we proceed through the year. But so far, the commercial aftermarket is about what we expected. In the defense markets, which make up about 25% of our revenue, the defense picture was again better than we expected. As an aside, I should probably stop forecasting this before I embarrass myself further but on the other hand, I have to say something. The revenues were up 10% on a Q2 versus prior Q2 basis. On a year-to-date basis, we're up about 3.5% versus the prior year, the full year average run rate. Incoming orders ran ahead of shipping again in Q2. We'll see how this plays out. As I've said, the military picture is not clear. For obvious reasons, we remain cautious. In total for the quarter, our revenues were a bit better than we expected. Moving to profitability and on a reported basis, I'm going to talk primarily about our operating performance or EBITDA As Defined. The major As Defined adjustments are made up of acquisition and stock option expenses, Greg will review various other items on the income statement also. For Q2, our EBITDA As Defined of $203 million was up 39% versus the prior year Q2 As Defined or EBITDA As Defined. The EBITDA As Defined margin is 48% for the quarter, the same as the prior year Q2. The year-to-date EBITDA As Defined margin is roughly 49% of revenue. Now there are a number of moving parts that complicate the EBITDA margin event, and let me try and clarify that a little bit, at least on a year-to-date basis. If you break out the EBITDA margins a little more finely, if you take the base business including McKechnie, our EBITDA revenues, again EBITDA As Defined, was about 50% of revenue. This is in spite of an OEM aftermarket mix down. The Schneller, Harco and AmSafe acquisitions combined diluted the EBITDA margin about 2% or 2% down, and the impact of the 2 retroactive contract settlements moved the EBITDA margin up about 1%. And I think that comes to the 49%. With respect to M&A activity, as I said we closed one acquisition in Q2 2012, that is AmSafe, for about $750 million. We continue looking at opportunities. Al's been pretty busy working the AmSafe deal and various follow-on items, and the pipeline's a little light at the moment. Closings, on the other hand, are always very difficult to predict. We remain disciplined and focused on our clear value-creation opportunity and strategy here. Now regarding the fiscal year '12 guidance, and this is on Slide 6. There are also a number of moving pieces increase affecting our guidance. The operations performed well in Q2 in the first half. The OEM aftermarket mix is continuing to run against this a little. The AmSafe acquisition is closed, and we have now resolved these $11 million in contract settlements. I'll refer to the midpoints and all the following numbers. Again, the numbers now include AmSafe, but there's no additional acquisitions or settlements included in these. Based on all of the above, we have increased the midpoint of our EPS as-adjusted guidance by $0.57 a share from $5.83 to $6.40. Almost 2/3 of the increase is attributable to the AmSafe acquisition net of the incremental interest. We now expect TD's revenues to be about $1.68 billion or up $194 million from our prior guidance. The vast majority is due to the AmSafe acquisition with the balance split between contract settlement, improved Commercial OEM revenues and some slight improvement in defense. The 2012 EBITDA As Defined is now anticipated to be about $800 million, up $67 million from our previous guidance. Almost 3/4 of this increase comes from the AmSafe acquisition. On a full year basis, the EBITDA As Defined margin of 48% is roughly made up as follows. The base business, again including McKechnie, should run about 51% of revenues for the full year, and it continues to move up. Again, this is in spite of the mix down drag. Schneller, Harco and AmSafe full year dilution is about 3.5% down on the margin, and the impact of the 2 Boeing contract settlements is about 0.5%, up on a full year basis, and that should settle you to the 48%. Compared to 2012 and on a pro forma basis, we are now planning on full year commercial aerospace OEM revenues to be up in the high-teen percents. For commercial aerospace aftermarket on a pro forma basis, we are still planning on full year revenue growth at about 10% based on a worldwide traffic up 4% to 5% year-over-year. We'll keep watching this closely and adjust as required as the year proceeds. For defense revenues, on the same basis, we are now planning year-over-year revenues to be flat to modestly up. Again, I think I should probably give up handicapping this, but there I go. In summary, the first quarter was a good start to the year, and Q2 continued that. The market seemed to be roughly on track but in any event, I'm confident that by focusing on our consistent strategy, we could continue to create intrinsic value in good and bad times. Now let me hand it over to Ray Laubenthal, our COO, who will discuss a few operating items from the quarter.