Mark Culhane
Analyst · Stifel. Your line is open
Thanks, Oliver and good afternoon everyone. We delivered a strong quarter in Q4 and close to our year, which sets us up well for good momentum as we enter 2019. Our fourth quarter performance was highlighted not only by our better than expected total revenue and EPS, but even more importantly, by our strong ARR and recurring revenue growth, as well as better than expected free cash flow generation. Our strategy is clearly working and it’s now being reflected in our financial results. In Q4, 87% of our bookings were subscription-based which resulted in 79% for the full year. This exceeded our most recent guidance range of 55% to 70% and significantly beat our original guidance of 40% to 50% when we began 2018. Even with more transactions shifting to subscription than expected, which is good for the future of Teradata but reduces the amount of revenue recognized in the current period. Total revenue in Q4 was $588 million, meaningfully above our guidance range of $555 million to $575 million. This was driven by recurring revenue growth ahead of our expectations from strong customer subscription demand for Teradata’s software. Full year total revenue was $2.164 billion, higher than our $2.13 billion to $2.15 billion guidance range as well as higher than 2017 full year revenue of $2.156 billion. Recurring revenue, which includes revenue from subscription-based transactions, as well as maintenance and software upgrade rates relating to perpetual license was $328 million in Q4, a year-over-year increase of 10%, 13% increase in constant currency and well ahead of our expectations for the quarter because of better than expected bookings linearity, contributing to recurring revenue recognition within the quarter. Full year recurring revenue was $1.254 billion, a 10% increase from 2017 on both a reported and constant currency basis, both of which exceeded our guidance. Perpetual software license and hardware revenues which is revenue from on-premise perpetual transactions was $97 million, a year-over-year decrease of 39%. As I discussed at our Analyst Day in December, we expect to eventually start selling on a perpetual basis and therefore, we expect perpetual revenues to continue to decline year-over-year as we go through our transition, most customers are purchasing software on a subscription basis, but some customers continue to purchase our hardware upfront. Therefore, our perpetual revenue is now predominantly hardware-related. Full year perpetual revenue declined 21% to $340 million. And consulting revenue, which was $163 million in Q4 decreased 4% from Q4 2017, but was flat in constant currency. Full year consulting revenue was $570 million, down 2% from 2017 as reported and in constant currency. As a reminder, we are shifting our strategy relating to our consulting business to focus on megadata companies and within that target market to prioritize higher value, higher margin business-related consulting which is intended to increase consumption of Teradata Vantage, our software-based analytics platform. As a result, we expect our overall consulting revenue to decline as we realign and refocus our consulting resources. As we make this shift, we expect a meaningful reduction in consulting revenue, as well as some short-term impact on our consulting margin. However, because of this shift, we expect improved consulting margins longer-term. ARR grew $68 million, $72 million in constant currency in the fourth quarter. At the end of 2018, ARR was $1.308 billion, a 10% increase, 12% in constant currency from the prior year. At our Analyst Day in December, I said that we expected subscription-based ARR to be more than $400 million and up over 100% year-over-year at the end of 2018. I am happy to report that as of the end of 2018, subscription-based ARR was $493 million and up more than 130% year-over-year. The remainder of our ARR is comprised of $716 million of perpetual license maintenance and software upgrade rights and $99 million of subscription-based managed services. We intend to only provide this ARR breakdown on an annual basis given the large transaction nature of our business as we believe quarterly comparisons are not meaningful. As our business continues to shift more to subscription-based transactions, we see our subscription-related ARR growing at an attractive rate while ARR related to maintenance and software upgrade rates from our legacy perpetual business likely declining from the shift to subscription. For 2018, on a net basis, we generated approximately $125 million in incremental ARR, which was almost $150 million in constant currency. Our backlog at the end of the year was approximately $2.5 billion, an increase of 34% from the end of the third quarter and 51% from year-end 2017. Before I continue to highlight our Q4 operating results, please note, unless stated otherwise, my comments today reflect Teradata’s results on a non-GAAP basis, which excludes items such as stock-based compensation expense and other special items identified in our earnings release. In terms of gross margin, recurring revenue gross margin was 71.6% versus 74.9% in Q4 2017and in line with our expectations. As expected, our current recurring revenue mix includes more subscription-based revenue, versus legacy perpetual maintenance and software upgrade rights revenue as compared to the prior year. As a result, this revenue mix shift drove the year-over-year recurring revenue gross margin decline. Full year recurring revenue gross margin was 72.8%, better than expected, but lower versus the prior year due to the shift to the subscription-based transactions. Perpetual revenue gross margin was 44.3%, which compare to 49.4% in Q4 2017. The year-over-year decline was due to perpetual revenue being primarily hardware-related versus the prior year period as many customers began purchasing their software via subscription. Full year perpetual gross margin was 41.2%, which was lower than the prior year, but as expected due to the shift to the subscription-based transaction. And gross margin of our consulting revenue improved to 17.2% compared to 13.6% in Q4 2017, while consulting margin in the fourth quarter improved over 2017, it fell short of our expectations. Full year consulting margin was 7.4% versus 4.6% in 2017. We expect consulting margins to continue to improve going forward as we continue to align our consulting resources to our strategy. Overall gross margin was 52% in the fourth quarter which was roughly flat compared to the prior year period. Full year gross margin was 50.6%, down one percentage point, largely due to the timing of revenue recognition and the corresponding revenue mix changes from the shift to subscription-based transaction. Turning to operating expenses, selling, general and administrative expense was $160 million in Q4, decreasing $2 million or 1% from the fourth quarter of 2017. Full year SG&A was $595 million, up 2%. Research and development expense was $72 million versus $70 million in the fourth quarter of 2017. Full year R&D expense was $290 million, up 5%, as we continue to invest in Teradata Vantage, our software-based analytics platform. Operating margin was $12.6% versus 14.9% in Q4 2017. Full year operating margin was 9.7%, down from 11.7%. The year-over-year decline was largely due to the impact of shifting to the subscription model. Teradata’s non-GAAP tax of 17.1% for the fourth quarter was lower than the 19.1% rate in Q4 2017, but in line with our expectations. Full year non-GAAP tax rate was 19.6%, in line with our expectations at the beginning of 2018 of about 20%. As a result, EPS in the fourth quarter was $0.49, which was higher than our guidance range of $0.41 to $0.45. The upside in EPS was driven by the higher than expected recurring revenue. Full year EPS was $1.29, again higher than our guidance range of $1.22 to $1.26. Turning to cash flow, net cash provided by operating activities was $107 million in Q4 2018 compared to $23 million in the fourth quarter of 2017. Full year net cash provided by operating activities was $364 million for 2018, as compared to $324 million in 2017. Cash used for capital expenditures and additions to capitalized software development costs was $63 million in Q4, an increase from $21 million in Q4 of 2017. The increase in CapEx was, as expected, and driven by capital improvements to our San Diego headquarters and the increased mix of transactions moving to subscription. Full year cash used for capital expenditures and additions to capitalized software development cost was $160 million, compared to $87 million in the prior year. As a result, free cash flow for the fourth quarter was $44 million and full year free cash flow was $204 million, which exceeded our guidance range of $175 million to $200 million. As of December 31, 2018, cash was $715 million. During the fourth quarter, we bought approximately 2.6 million shares of Teradata stock for $94 million. For the full year, we bought 7.9 million shares for $300 million. At the end of 2018, we had $253 million of remaining share repurchase authorization. During 2018, we completed the repatriation of $800 million of foreign earnings that we planned at the beginning of the year. Deferred revenue at year-end increased $109 million from the end of the third quarter and increased $96 million from the end of 2017. Both increases were due to the strong growth in our subscription-based transactions. Turning to guidance, which is dependent on many variables including the mix and timing of bookings and currency fluctuations among other factors. Regarding currency, we expect a one percentage point headwind on our full year, year-over-year revenue comparison with a three to four point headwind for the first quarter. We expect our full year bookings mix related to subscription-based transactions to be approximately 70% or higher. In terms of ARR, we expect ARR to grow approximately 11% t o 12% in 2019. We expect recurring revenue to increase approximately 11% in 2019. And in the first quarter, we expect recurring revenue between $332 million to $335 million. We expect perpetual revenue to continue to decline approximately $150 million to $200 million in 2019 over the prior year. And additionally, we expect consulting revenue to decline in 2019 approximately 15% to 20% as we realign and focus our consulting resources on high value higher margin consulting engagements in our megadata target market. Recurring revenue gross margin 2019 is expected to be in the low 70s. But longer term we expect our recurring revenue gross margin to improve as we continue to gain efficiencies and leverage our cloud and subscription-related investments. We expect perpetual gross margins to be approximately 35% to 40% for 2019. We expect consulting gross margins in the low teens for 2019. Thus in total, we expect overall gross margin to improve 3 to 4 points from 2018 levels. And we expect operating margins to improve a couple points over the prior year. Our non-GAAP tax rate is anticipated to be 20% again in 2019. As a result, non-GAAP EPS is expected to be $1.45 t o $1.55 for the year. This is based on full year weighted average shares outstanding of approximately $119 million. And for the first quarter, non-GAAP EPS is expected to be in the $0.18 to $0.20 range based on 25% non-GAAP tax rate, the same as Q1 2018 and 119 million weighted average shares outstanding. We expect 2019 free cash flow after adjusting for cash impacts related to reorganizing restructuring our operations and our go-to-market functions as we aligned our strategy to be in the range of $200 million to $250 million. Our projection of free cash flow is subject to many variables including but not limited to subscriptions bookings mix, the amount of capital expenditures required to support new subscription transactions, as well as the billing frequency of such new subscription transactions and the ultimate cash payments related to reorganizing our operations. As I close, I want to thank Vic for his vision and leadership in driving the development and execution of our strategy over the last few years. I have really valued his advice and counsel during my time here at Teradata and I look forward to continuing working with Oliver to successfully execute our strategy going forward. Clearly, the future for Teradata is very bright. And with that, operator, we are ready to take questions.