Earnings Labs

USA TODAY Co., Inc. (TDAY)

Q4 2008 Earnings Call· Fri, Jan 30, 2009

$7.28

-1.49%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the Gannett fourth quarter 2008 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions). Our speakers today will be Mr. Craig Dubow, Chairman, President and CEO and Gracia Martore, Executive Vice President and CFO. At this time I'd like to turn the call over to Gracia Martore. Please go ahead.

Gracia C. Martore

Management

Thanks [Paul], and good morning. Welcome to our conference call and webcast today to review our fourth quarter results. We hope you've had the opportunity to review our press release this morning. It also can be found at www.gannett.com. With me today, as [Paul] said, are Craig Dubow, Chairman, President and CEO and Jeff Heinz, Director of Investor Relations. Today Craig will provide an update on our efforts to manage Gannett in this extremely tough economic environment and position the company for the future. He also will provide a brief overview of our results for the quarter. I'll go in to a little more detail on our results, particularly our business segments. I'll also discuss our anticipated impairment charge as well as the restructuring expenses for the fourth quarter. We supplied you with a detailed look at our expectations for the quarter in mid-December, so we will keep our comments brief this morning. Craig?

Craig A. Dubow

Management

Thanks, Gracia, and good morning all. Like virtually every other business Gannett's results for the fourth quarter reflect the unprecedented turmoil in our economy and financial markets. The ongoing softness in our real estate markets, slowing auto sales, job losses and weak holiday sales took their toll. Even so, Gannett continued to innovate and transform our core businesses while at the same time managing the cyclical downturn. This twin focus is the key to our strategy and will, I believe, serve us well over the next several months as we face the global economic downturn and position ourselves for any recovery. Today I want to talk to you about our efforts on both of these fronts while highlighting our ongoing innovation and important acquisition and our overall progress. First let me tell you about our industry-leading innovation changes in Detroit. As we have noted on a number of occasions, we truly understand the changing media landscape and the consumer's desire to access content across multiple platforms. This is at the heart of our Detroit transformation. For those of you who don't know, we operate under a joint operating agreement in Detroit. We own the Detroit Free Press and Media Newsgroup owns the Detroit News. Due to a combination of factors, namely two newspaper market and a very trying regional economy, we had to fundamentally change the way we deliver our content. Using a very research-based customer-centered approach, the managements of the newspapers evaluated the market, talked to our readers and advertisers and tailored a series of significant changes to meet these needs. The goal is to deliver what our customers want and what advertisers need while significantly reducing production and distribution cost. Beginning in this quarter we will be offering a wider variety of digital information channels in Detroit while…

Gracia C. Martore

Management

Thanks, Craig. Before we go into detail on our quarterly results I need to remind you that our conference call and webcast today may include forward-looking statements and our actual results may differ. Factors that might cause them to differ are outlined in our SEC filings. This presentation also includes certain non-GAAP financial measures and we have provided a reconciliation of those measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in the press release and on the Investor Relations portion of our website. This morning I’ll provide some additional detail on our publishing segment, our expenses company-wide and give you some detail on the severance expense and its impact. Finally I’ll cover some of our non-operating and balance sheet items. Let’s first go to publishing where the global economic recession as we have noted continued to pressure advertising demand throughout the quarter. Advertising revenue declined 22.7% as ad revenue was 17.7% lower in the U.S. and 29.3% lower in the U.K. on a constant currency basis. Overall, retail was about 14% lower, national down about 18% and classified down about 37%. As Craig noted December’s result overall was better in comparison to November's results both in the U.S. and the U.K. Retail advertising continued to be soft in December although it improved relative to November. In the U.S. across all of our products and retail the majority of the decline similar to the third quarter was due to continued weakness in the department store, furniture and telecom categories. However, financial performed well in the quarter as it did in the third quarter. Lower advertising demand at USA Today drove the decline in national advertising in the quarter. The telecom, financial and advocacy categories all grew but the gains were more than offset by softer results in the entertainment, automotive, retail…

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from John Janedis – Wachovia. John Janedis – Wachovia: Hi, good morning. Thank you. Gracia, on the digital front, I think you said last month that October-November combined was up in the 5% range, and with the quarter coming into that one forum, I'm wondering what you saw in December and whether or not that's carried into the new year? Thanks.

Gracia C. Martore

Management

What we saw coming into the end of the quarter I think was a little bit of a mixed bag. Obviously at Newsquest and in our U.S. properties where employment up sells are still an important part of the mix, we continue to see pressure on online revenues as a result as fewer adds to up sell. Conversely on the auto side and in banner advertising particularly in the U.S. community publishing side as well as in Newsquest we actually saw very, very nice gains. As well as in our U.S. community side on automotive we saw very nice year-over-year gain in automotive online advertising. Again Career Builder had just a terrific quarter given the economic backdrop that they had to contend with and ass we said, on the Career Builder-driven side their revenues were up very nicely, obviously held back by the newspaper up sells or the diminished newspaper up sells there. And then they saw a very nice increase, albeit off a small base on the international side. So overall I think we're pleased where we ended up the year on the digital front. John Janedis – Wachovia: Just one related question I'm sorry for the number two, but how much seasonality is there for the cash flow in 4Q for the digital segment?

Gracia C. Martore

Management

Yes, as I said John, particularly Career Builder which is obviously the lion's share of our digital segment they have a significant, as they do every year, significant promotional spending and advertising investment that they do in the first quarter which is moderated as the quarters progress during the year and in the fourth quarter that is their most significant quarter. So in the first quarter we would expect that on the Career Builder side we would be in more of an investment mode and then as the year progresses we'll see that nice uptick in the bottom line and in EBITDA.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Alexia Quadrani – J.P. Morgan. Alexia Quadrani – J.P. Morgan: On the Newsquest business you've always been very diligent on the cost side in a weak ad market. I was wondering if you would just give us some general color on the how the profitability of the Newsquest profitability compare to your domestic community papers. And just a quick one on the broadcast business, we're hearing much worse pacings from others in the down mid teens as you suggested. How much of that benefit do you get from the Super Bowl maybe in the outlook?

Craig A. Dubow

Management

We'll see some nice improvement with the Super Bowl, but in general as I commented we will be down in the mid teens for the quarter. There are some hard hit categories particularly that in the auto, in retail categories because they've been hit fairly hard. But we will in general I would say that the Super Bowl will be of help to Dave and the group as we move forward.

Gracia C. Martore

Management

And Alexia on the profit margin questions vis-à-vis, Newsquest and our community publishing segment. Actually Newsquest through the very strong efforts that the management team there has taken on restructuring and really refocusing and recasting their cost structure. Their margins continue to be quite strong and more than comparable with our U.S. community publishing margins, despite the fact that they have much more of a focus on the classifieds side as a part of their advertising total.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Craig Huber – Barclays Capital. Craig Huber – Barclays Capital: My first question, Gracia, about your pension, a year ago I think it was under funded by almost $150 million. It looked like about a year ago you had about $3.4 billion of assets in the pension portfolio. I've got to assume the pension like everybody else dropped a good 20% this year, in 2008. Does that mean you guys are roughly underfunded in the pension by $750, $850 million and if that is the case do you have roughly seven years to get that back to breakeven?

Gracia C. Martore

Management

Actually what you are looking at also includes our SERP which is unfunded. So if you look at our domestic qualified plan here in the States obviously it reflects the significant declines that we've seen in the markets last year and our plan just like everybody else's plan has been impacted by that. Our unfunded obligation though on that plan at the end of 2008 is going to be somewhere in the $575 to $590 million range. Obviously there are a lot of factors at play. There's discount rates, how the market continues to fare; if there is the possibility for governmental relief, but as things stand today that number would be funded over the next seven years. And we don’t have any cash contributions required in 2009 and so we'll just continue to look at it as we always do and we'll continue to monitor it and monitor the various factors and see if there may be some thought to doing some discretionary contributions. But we have no required contributions for '09. Craig Huber – Barclays Capital: And also Gracia about the dividend ratio, I know you've thought about this a lot, you and your board and senior management. Is there plans in the first quarter just given what's going on in the economy the and the cyclic pressures, etc. to cut the dividends significantly here to conserve cash to focus on paying down debt?

Gracia C. Martore

Management

Craig, I think every company globally is very focused on conserving debt, conserving cash. I think that you will find that we had to look at the dividend back in October and I think that the board wisely wanted to see what the impact of a burgeoning credit crisis and more difficult economic conditions would bring. We will – the next time the board has to act on the dividend is in February and I know that there'll be significant conversation around that. In the context of where credit markets are, where the economies are and where cash conservation comes into play across the country. So we will take that up with the board again in February and we will act appropriately. Craig Huber – Barclays Capital: And if I could just slip one more in, Craig, if I could just ask you what percent of your newspapers would you say in the U.S. did you maintain the ad rates on average flat for the year or even perhaps down? Do you have a ballpark number?

Craig A. Dubow

Management

That would be a very difficult one to answer only because the individual ad rates as you know Craig are set by the local markets as we go forward, but on a percent – I couldn’t do it right off hand actually.

Gracia C. Martore

Management

Maintain rate? Craig Huber – Barclays Capital: Yes maintain.

Gracia C. Martore

Management

I think a considerable.

Craig A. Dubow

Management

Maintenance, yes on a maintenance basis, yes.

Gracia C. Martore

Management

And at USA Today we actually would have increased rates.

Craig A. Dubow

Management

That is correct. Craig Huber – Barclays Capital: Well, do you have a sense maybe, I’m asking perhaps how many percent roughly did you actually lower ad rates, or perhaps maybe none? I just want to hear your answer.

Gracia C. Martore

Management

It's almost impossible to answer that question because there maybe some newspaper in a couple of different categories that did some things that were specific to a market. I would say that overall that we have, as we have said previously maintained rates or in some cases judiciously increased them, but this is not a year of looking at dramatic ad rate increases. It's really a year of focusing in on gaining market share and doing the right job for the advertiser.

Craig A. Dubow

Management

That's correct. Yes.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Catriona Fallon – Citigroup Catriona Fallon – Citigroup: I just wanted to build a little bit on Craig's first question about the dividend and cash flow and maybe jump into some of the other drivers for cash flow. So on CapEx, how much of the CapEx is growth versus maintenance. So what could CapEx become if you decided cut the growth CapEx? And then are you planning to conserve cash on acquisitions and also on common stock this year, buy backs?

Gracia C. Martore

Management

Catriona, I think that we indicated at the end of the year with regard to uses of free cash flow that we would be very focused on paying down debt and it was unlikely in the short to intermediate term we would be buying back stock. On the CapEx front as I said we spent about $165 million on CapEx in 2008 including a small piece for Career Builder since its consolidation. We have given guidance in December that our CapEx plan including Career Builder would be in about the $148 million range. However that's a plan that we will continue to review as we proceed through the year and I would expect that we would come in perhaps lower, clearly lower than that number. But it's a little early in the year to forecast where we'll end up. But clearly we're taking a look at every expenditure and making sure that the return is there before we spend the dollars and deferring anything that there are any question marks around. Catriona Fallon – Citigroup: Great, just one other that's really quick. The digital business, definitely margins there were significantly higher than I think what we had expected and what you had guided to. How much of that was possibly due to Ripple6? And can you give a little bit more detail on the margin for Career Builder because it looks like the margin there is still lower than monster.com. Where do you think those margins can go longer term?

Gracia C. Martore

Management

First of all we are delighted to have Ripple6 as part of the Gannett family. We think it's a terrific investment and a great management team there that will do very strong things for us. But quite frankly it is an extraordinarily small piece of the digital business segment although we're looking forward to it becoming a much bigger piece of it. As we said before, Career Builder, PointRoll and ShopLocal are really the key drivers in the digital segment. And I won't comment on what Career Builder's margins are or what Monster's margins are. I will only tell you that we are very pleased with where Career Builder and PointRoll are today. We acquired as you recall the pieces of ShopLocal that we did not own because we knew that there was an opportunity there to combine them with some things we did at PointRoll and we are achieving better results as a result of that. So right now we are extremely pleased at where those margins are on all of those businesses, margins that allow us to continue to grow those businesses as well.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Edward Atorino – Benchmark Capital. Edward Atorino – Benchmark Capital: How does the, sort of your first quarter guidance compare with January? And is there any sign out there that the checkbooks are beginning to loosen up a little bit after the disastrous start to the year?

Craig A. Dubow

Management

You know, Edward, over all visibility right now I think as I commented already are just very, very limited. We are not seeing checkbooks just coming open, but we do understand that there is opportunity in the pipeline. But I want to caution that by saying the visibility is extremely limited at this point. And frankly it has been slower to actually come to fruition than we have anticipated thus far. But we do realize and understand there's some business out there. Edward Atorino – Benchmark Capital: Any auto business of any significance in there?

Craig A. Dubow

Management

Well auto business, as you know, has had a very significant decline this past year. And it is still down significantly. And right now, Edward, I'm not seeing anything that's suggesting there's going to be any near-term ups in that.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from James Goss – Barrington Research. James Goss – Barrington Research: Gracia, you mentioned that newsprint prices had turned lower in the fourth quarter. I'm wondering what sort of trend are you looking at in terms of both prices and the consumption side because you were doing well there last year? And overall in terms of the cost between the newsprint issue and the impact of furloughs are you looking at like a 10% or more decline in overall costs in the first quarter as you look into the period?

Gracia C. Martore

Management

Jim, on the newsprint consumption front we would anticipate that consumption based on a number of the initiatives that we have in place onward with reductions and consolidations and a variety of other initiatives that I know about [Dickey] and the USCP has and Newsquest and others have. We would anticipate that consumption would be down more than what you've seen in the fourth quarter. Looking at all of these initiatives together, both on the newsprint side as well as on the furlough side, it's just a little early in the quarter to really frame the exact reduction and expenses. A lot's going to depend on where volumes are, where business trends go for the remainder of the quarter. But you can be sure that we will continue to be as focused and disciplined on the cost side as we have demonstrated over the last several years and we will do all of the right things to make sure our expenses are in line with the revenue opportunities we see out there. James Goss – Barrington Research: The other question for either Gracia or Craig, in your digital area how does your revenue mix break down between advertising versus service enhancements and widgets and all the other things you have done because it seems like you're having a better experience than all of the others that are having in the area. And I suspect it's because you're not just ad-focused.

Craig A. Dubow

Management

I think that's a fair approach to look at it from Jim. We in general predominantly I would say have been ad-driven. But there are other pieces to this that I think you are very aware have come into it really over the last three quarters that have helped us in some of the other arenas. And I think you're going to see that continue as we move forward. Obviously right now CPMs are pressured. I don't think there's any surprise in that on the digital side. As we've gone into Q1 here hopefully that will show some improvement, but we're not seeing that at this point. But that's in general where we are at this time.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Michael Kupinski – Noble Financial Group. Michael Kupinski – Noble Financial Group: Media general reported yesterday that they're seeing some silver linings in its newspapers, particularly from retail in the first quarter. And I was just wondering in terms of what you might be seeing and any signs of stabilization to that category particularly? And are you seeing some more trends in December continuing through the first quarter? And I have just one more question after that.

Gracia C. Martore

Management

Mike, on retail I think it's going to vary market to market and each company has different markets, different geographic concentration. So, I think it's very early in the quarter to really try to predict any trends or any real strong idea of where things are going given the limited visibility we have. I think that we're continuing to do a good job on realizing all of the advertising dollars that are available in the retail space in the markets we serve. But it's just a little too early to be perhaps as optimistic as others. But again it depends on what markets you're in and focused on.

Craig A. Dubow

Management

And Michael, just to add there with what our USCP group has done under [Bob]'s leadership. Really they're working hard in driving from the national perspective that one call opportunity so that we are consolidating and trying to listen to the advertisers as clearly as we can so that we can minimize the amount of time and effort to purchase across all markets. So, there are lots of efforts from the listening standpoint that we're trying to convert. And frankly I think as the year goes along we'll see some good results from that. Michael Kupinski – Noble Financial Group: And in terms of the first quarter how is it shaping up in terms of as we relate to the fourth quarter of '09, or '08. I'm sorry.

Craig A. Dubow

Management

As it relates I think you're seeing a continuation of really where we have been. I mean some areas are a little bit better than others. But I would say in general, I mean it's not terrific, but as I said a little bit earlier there is business out there. And I think with the efforts from each of the divisions there's good prospects. But it's not very robust at this point and visibility is just very, very limited. Michael Kupinski – Noble Financial Group: And in terms of the pacing information and the guidance that you've given for your broadcast division, I believe you didn't really have any political advertising in the first quarter of '08 if I recall. And I was just wondering if you can break down what you're seeing in terms of local versus national in the quarter?

Craig A. Dubow

Management

At this point let's just say first of all there was say in the 5 million range or so in Q1 of political from '08. Michael, I think as you take a look at the way this is breaking down it's fairly consistent at this point on a percentage basis in the way it's coming in, but traditionally national is not going to be quite as strong in this market obvious from the local efforts that are out there and that’s fairly consistent as we go forward right now.

Gracia C. Martore

Management

I think we only have time for one more question.

Operator

Operator

Your next question will come from Matthew Miller – Investco.

Matthew Miller - Investco

Analyst

If I could just focus on two issues, the headcount reduction and follow on to Craig’s question about pension. What was the total headcount impacted might be 56 million – what were covered by the 56 million severance charge.

Gracia C. Martore

Management

That was about 4,000 FTEs but I need – let me double check that.

Matthew Miller - Investco

Analyst

And if I could clarify your response to the pension question, if you get an unfunded obligation of $575 million at the low end that’s greater than 10% deficit to your PBO. The Pension Protection Act of 2006 requires a qualified linear funding over a seven year period. How is it that you avoid cash funding in 2009 regarding that issue?

Gracia C. Martore

Management

If you have, we also have some pension credits so that would help with that contribution issue. And in fact I’ve confirmed that indeed it was about 4,000 FTEs across all of our segments.

Matthew Miller - Investco

Analyst

Is it fair to assume that you would start to linearly fund that deficit in 2010?

Gracia C. Martore

Management

Not necessarily. I think it is much, much too early to determine where we’re all going to be. A lot has to evolve but – and it’s a very complicated calculation that you have to do to determine how that funding goes if you have to do it. So I think it would be difficult for us at this moment to give you really a finite answer as to how you would fund it over those several years.

Operator

Operator

That does conclude our Q&A session for today. I’d like to turn the call back to Gracia Martore for any closing comments.

Gracia C. Martore

Management

Thanks very much for joining us this morning and if you have any additional questions I know that Jeff Heinz who you can reach at 703-854-6917 would be happy to answer them or conversely you can reach me at 6918. Thanks and have a terrific day.

Operator

Operator

Once again that does conclude our conference call for today and we thank you for your participation. Have a great day.