Earnings Labs

USA TODAY Co., Inc. (TDAY)

Q4 2007 Earnings Call· Fri, Feb 1, 2008

$7.28

-1.49%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, everyone and welcome to today’s Gannett fourth quarter 2007 earnings conference call. Today’s call is being recorded. Due to the large number of callers, we will limit you to one question or comment. We greatly appreciate your cooperation and courtesy. Our speakers today will be Mr. Craig Dubow, Chairman, President, and CEO; and Gracia Martore, Executive Vice President and CFO. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Gracia Martore. Please go ahead.

Gracia C. Martore

Management

Thanks, Amy and good morning. Thanks for joining us today. Welcome to our conference call and webcast in which we are going to review our fourth quarter 2007 results. Hopefully you’ve had the opportunity to review the press releases we distributed this morning. They also can be found at www.gannett.com. With me today are Craig Dubow, Chairman, President, and CEO, and Jeff Heinz, Director of Investor Relations. Chris Saridakis, our new Chief Digital Officer, is here as well and we welcome him to the team. Having just updated you in-depth in early December, we will keep our comments brief today. Craig will provide an overview of the company’s quarterly results and talk about some recent developments in our strategic efforts. I will then follow with some details regarding the quarter. Craig.

Craig A. Dubow

Management

Thanks, Gracia and good morning, all. Last year we told you 2007 would be a year of executing on our strategic plan. It was and today I plan to talk about the importance of some of those accomplishments and the progress that we have made in our transformation. Most impressive, I believe, is that this progress was achieved in an advertising environment that has been challenging at best. Briefly for the year, we generated revenues of $7.4 billion and operating cash flow of just over $2 billion, despite the dramatic impact the real estate slow down and the softening economy had on advertising, and the near absence of $112 million in ad revenues associate with the Olympics and the elections we achieved in 2006. Now to the quarter -- at our presentation at the UPS conference in December, we told you our results would depend on the last couple of weeks in December. Despite a step down in advertising demand at the end of the quarter, we delivered earning results in the range we provided in December. That advertising softness impacted our results, as did a variety of other factors. These included an almost complete absence of political related advertising demand. Also, we had the extra week in 2006 that makes all comparisons that much more difficult. On the expense side, we recorded costs of approximately $38 million for severance and facility consolidations related to a number of efficiency efforts, both in the U.S. and in the U.K. Additionally, we took a non-cash after-tax impairment charge of about $51 million related to the value of some of our mastheads. The charge is modest and I think it’s important to note that it will not have any impact on our operations or cash flow. But as a result of these items,…

Gracia C. Martore

Management

Thanks, Craig. Before we go into detail on our quarterly results, I have the pleasure of reminding you that our conference call and webcast today may include forward-looking statements and our actual results may differ. Factors that might cause them to differ are outlined in our SEC filings. This presentation also includes certain non-GAAP financial measures and we’ve provided a reconciliation of those measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in the press release and on the investor relations portion of our website. Now I’d like to focus a little deeper on our quarterly results, particularly on the expense side. As Craig mentioned, comparing this quarter to 2006’s fourth quarter reported results will not be very helpful in assessing trends, so where possible, I will discuss the results on a comparable basis, 13 weeks to 13 weeks for the quarter. In addition, we included in our revenue and statistics release today, revenue comparisons for the month, quarter, and year on a comparable week basis. One reminder -- we noted last year that the extra week added about $0.05 in earnings per share in the fourth quarter last year. Let’s begin with the newspaper segment. As Craig mentioned, the advertising softness late in the quarter had an impact on our results and exacerbated some of the cyclical trends we were experiencing in our markets. Revenues from local advertising were down 3.3%, national advertising and classified advertising both were down over 11 for the quarter, all on a comparable week basis. At our domestic newspapers, advertising was 9.3% lower on the same basis, resulting primarily from the real estate slowdown, which continued to drive the decline, particularly in the states we have discussed before -- Arizona, California, Florida, and Nevada. The declines for the classified categories in most states were generally…

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) We’ll go first to John Janedis with Wachovia.

John Janedis - Wachovia

Management

Thank you. Good morning. Gracia, can you just talk about pricing changes in ’08 for classifieds in the four markets you’ve been talking about now for the last few quarters? Are you pushing through increases in the low singles or maybe dropping rates in an effort to drive volumes? Thanks.

Gracia C. Martore

Management

John, frankly it varies market to market and newspaper to newspaper. We are very mindful of each market’s individual characteristics and in some we can press pricing and in other areas, we are not afforded that ability. So we are just being very cognizant of what our advertisers are looking for and being focused on what we need to do to drive revenues to the company.

John Janedis - Wachovia

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We’ll take the next question from Karl Choi with Merrill Lynch.

Karl Choi - Merrill Lynch

Management

Good morning. I just wondered if you can talk a little bit about what you are seeing so far in the new year. Has the decline been similar to what you were seeing in December?

Craig A. Dubow

Management

Sure. I would say this, that very much of what we were seeing in December, particularly when we met at the conference, continued and then it further pushed itself downward with all the turmoil. What we are seeing right now as we go through the first quarter is quite similar to that as we go forward. We are hopeful that we are going to be seeing some pick-up in the political on the television side as we move through Super Tuesday and into the overall election period toward November. And the same as we move toward the Olympics but overall right now, we are seeing pretty much a continuation from what we saw in December.

Karl Choi - Merrill Lynch

Management

And just one last question actually -- Gracia, can you tell us what the non-newsprint cash expenses, how much were they for the quarter?

Gracia C. Martore

Management

I think we went through that but let me see if I can grab those numbers out again. On a pro forma constant currency excluding the impairment charge, the newspaper segment was down 13.3%.

Karl Choi - Merrill Lynch

Management

Is that excluding newsprint or including newsprint?

Gracia C. Martore

Management

No, that includes newsprint. If you exclude newsprint, it was about a little over 11% on that same basis.

Karl Choi - Merrill Lynch

Management

And should we expect that to be sustainable into the new year?

Gracia C. Martore

Management

We just have to recall that the first quarter of the year and particularly January, is our smallest revenue month and the quarter is our smallest revenue quarter, so our fixed costs would play a bigger role in the quarter. But clearly we are very focused on continuing to align our expenses with whatever the revenue opportunity is out there while balancing it with making important strategic investments in product and in other areas to have the right mix when we emerge from this cyclical downturn.

Karl Choi - Merrill Lynch

Management

Can you tell us what headcount was down in the year?

Gracia C. Martore

Management

On a pro forma basis, fourth quarter over fourth quarter, headcount was down in the mid- to high-single-digits.

Karl Choi - Merrill Lynch

Management

Great. Thank you.

Craig A. Dubow

Management

Karl, just to jump back, with one exception in what we are seeing at USA TODAY, we are seeing a little bit of pick-up for January and that is a more positive trend than what we were seeing certainly through December as well.

Operator

Operator

We’ll go next to Alexia Quadrani with Bear, Stearns. Alexia Quadrani - Bear, Stearns & Co.: Thank you. With regard to your comments, Craig, just about January seeing a little bit of a pick-up from December, is that also true for the U.K.? Are the trends similar there as they are in the U.S.?

Craig A. Dubow

Management

Well, first let me -- the pick-up is just with USA TODAY. I would say we are seeing for the most part pretty much in our other publishing areas as well as broadcast pretty much the same. We saw, as you know, in the U.K. a softening as we went through the end of the year, particularly the last few weeks and that has not picked up for us at this point, Alexia. Alexia Quadrani - Bear, Stearns & Co.: And then with the pick-up in the USA TODAY, does that suggest you might see a positive growth there or is it still way too early to sort of go that far?

Craig A. Dubow

Management

I think it’s way too early at this point. We’re just going to have to see. This is a very interesting market, to say the least. Alexia Quadrani - Bear, Stearns & Co.: And on the -- I apologize if I missed this but were the profits also down at Newsquest in the fourth quarter?

Gracia C. Martore

Management

Yes, they were down slightly in the U.K. in the fourth quarter. Alexia Quadrani - Bear, Stearns & Co.: But less than the decline in revenue, is that fair?

Gracia C. Martore

Management

I’m quickly flipping to that page. I don’t think that that is the case but let me just grab those numbers out in front of me. I think that the profit decline was a little bit higher than the revenue decline. Alexia Quadrani - Bear, Stearns & Co.: And then back to the U.S. on the political, can you give us your expectations of what I think you are looking for in the first quarter for election dollars?

Craig A. Dubow

Management

I’ll tell you, it has been kind of a mixed bag in the way that it has come together, particularly with the change of the caucuses, timing of the caucuses, as well as for the primaries. You know, we’re I think at this point a little behind where we thought we would be but overall in general, what we are expecting as the year builds, we’re not changing our thoughts on where we were. It should be a very robust political season. Alexia Quadrani - Bear, Stearns & Co.: Okay, and just lastly, Gracia, was there any reason I guess behind the reclassification of the equity interest that you mentioned?

Gracia C. Martore

Management

Well, as is the annual practice of the SEC, they provided a comment letter on our 2006 10-K. They asked a few questions about it. As we looked at it carefully here, given that our equity investments in various Internet businesses are continuing to increase, we felt that this was the appropriate time to combine those partnerships together with those investments and put it in one line, which is the more typical treatment on the P&L. Alexia Quadrani - Bear, Stearns & Co.: Okay. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

We’ll take the next question from Peter Appert with Goldman Sachs.

Peter Appert - Goldman Sachs

Management

Thanks. Gracia, you guys really have done yeoman like work in managing the cost side of the equation. I’m just wondering, sort of following on what Karl was asking earlier, the sustainability of margins in the context of the newsprint price increases and what I would have to think at this point would be limited opportunity for further headcount reductions, do you think you can sustain the current newspaper segment margins in ’08, given what you are seeing from a revenue standpoint?

Gracia C. Martore

Management

You know, obviously it will be a little bit tougher as the newsprint prices turn from being a positive impact to a neutral to a bit of a headwind for us, but we are continuing to look at further consolidations and centralizations of operations and properties. We’ll continue to take advantage of technology improvements, so we’ll continue to do a strong job on the expense side. Whether we can maintain margins or not, we’ll just have to see how each quarter unfolds and where the economy goes each quarter.

Peter Appert - Goldman Sachs

Management

And then, just continuing in the tradition of ignoring your request for one question, the FX impact please for the quarter on earnings, and can you tell us what the CareerBuilder revenues were for the quarter?

Gracia C. Martore

Management

The impact of foreign exchange was around $0.01 for the quarter, and on CareerBuilder revenues, I don’t believe they have released those numbers yet.

Peter Appert - Goldman Sachs

Management

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We’ll take the next question from Craig Huber with Lehman Brothers.

Craig Huber - Lehman Brothers

Management

Good morning. Thanks. Just for clarity, this down 11% non-newsprint number you gave, Gracia, for cash costs there, that includes the extra week a year ago, correct?

Gracia C. Martore

Management

Yes, it does.

Craig Huber - Lehman Brothers

Management

Do you have it without the extra week a year ago, so apples and apples?

Gracia C. Martore

Management

It would be a percent or two lower than that.

Craig Huber - Lehman Brothers

Management

Okay, and this headcount, you said down roughly 6% to 8% year over year pro forma. Do you think you have enough slack in the system where you can take that out again, that similar number in this new year?

Gracia C. Martore

Management

I don’t think anyone here at Gannett believes we have slack in the system. However, we continue to look at opportunities, as I said, to further consolidate things and centralize things as technology allows and as we continue to look at opportunities, both internally and externally. So we will I think continue to do the job you’ve come to expect of us to do on the expense side.

Craig Huber - Lehman Brothers

Management

And then lastly, have your thoughts changed at all on potentially selling or spinning off your TV station group as you think out over the next year or so, Craig?

Craig A. Dubow

Management

No, we always look at all elements of it but I have to tell you, with what we are facing certainly this year, some really great opportunities. We are moving forward. We are real excited about what the group has already produced and we’re looking forward.

Craig Huber - Lehman Brothers

Management

I’m sorry, but what about once we get through the political/Olympics this year as we go into 2009, so that’s behind you?

Craig A. Dubow

Management

We will always continue to assess everything, as we have in the past, but at this time from what we can see right now, we see a good upside and opportunity with the group as we go forward.

Craig Huber - Lehman Brothers

Management

And then just lastly for clarity, your January comments, you are saying they are very similar to December with the exception that USA TODAY looks better -- is that correct?

Craig A. Dubow

Management

That is correct, yes.

Craig Huber - Lehman Brothers

Management

Great, thanks, guys.

Operator

Operator

We’ll take the next question from Fred Searby with J.P. Morgan.

Fred Searby - J.P. Morgan

Management

Just a question on the U.K. -- there’s been a fair amount of concern about the housing market and potentially a real meltdown in the U.K. housing market. I know that’s more sort of focused on London, the city, but can you talk about just helping us what you think is happening? And is that what really started to fall off for Newsquest in December? I think you basically said that things started to decline a little bit. Is that real estate related? I know you are more south in England -- unusual situation but what your outlook is and whether you are starting to see that?

Gracia C. Martore

Management

Fred, I think really clearly real estate was impacted a bit, but I think really in a more general way, it frankly reflected I think the uncertainty that many advertisers were seeing in the marketplace in mid-December, both with the equity markets and with some of the meltdown on the sub-prime situation. And so I think that uncertainty caused advertisers to be a little bit more cautious in their spending. January does not necessarily make the trend for the year. We’ll just have to see how that plays out and what they do in the U.K. vis-à-vis their own economy and what they do ultimately on interest rate cuts and the like. But obviously it’s gotten off to a slower start than any of us had hoped for. But our team there in the U.K., led by Paul Davidson, they are pros and they have managed through these kinds of cycles in the past and they will continue to do the job on the expense side as they have traditionally done, whichever way the revenue opportunities go.

Fred Searby - J.P. Morgan

Management

Thanks, guys.

Operator

Operator

We’ll take the next question from James Goss with Barrington Research.

James Goss - Barrington Research

Management

Thank you. One broader question first -- how do you see the end game for classifieds? There seems to be an increasing concern that maybe it’s not just some of the help wanted and automotive that’s siphoned off to online but that the mix will continue to shift for all of the categories, despite some pretty good efforts on your part. How do you see it ultimately leveling off? I know you are on both sides but it has hurt to this point.

Gracia C. Martore

Management

I think with regard to the end game for classifieds, it’s probably a little bit early to predict where it will be. That’s why I think it behooves us to continue to position ourselves across the spectrum and on whatever platform those classifies end up being on. We have a very strong presence in all of our markets on the print side, both through our daily newspaper as well as various non-daily publications and niche publications. And then on the online side, we have robust websites in those local communities, together with great national solutions through CareerBuilder, cars.com. On the real estate side, we have very good solutions across all the platforms and you know, you may see us do more in that arena as well. But I think that what we need to do is make sure that we are positioned wherever those classifieds go.

James Goss - Barrington Research

Management

But the mix shift in favor of greater share online is not something that’s nearing completion, by any stretch. It’s probably still going to be an issue for quite some time.

Gracia C. Martore

Management

I would suspect that we would continue to see some migration. It will perhaps be at a faster rate in some larger markets than it is in some of the small to medium sized markets, but I think we’ll continue to see migration.

James Goss - Barrington Research

Management

Just a smaller thing, with the change in accounting you’ve made to the equity line, could you provide any framework for what you think the size and any seasonal pattern might be as you are looking at it at this point for the year?

Gracia C. Martore

Management

That continues to be difficult to say. Obviously as we indicated in the equity investee line, that’s a combination of newspaper partnerships and I would suspect that the trends there will be not dissimilar to the trends we see in the rest of our newspaper properties. With regard to the digital investments that are in that line, CareerBuilder, Classified Ventures have done well but there may be some more investment there and then we will have the investment to ramp up the Metro Mix rollout, so we are going to see investment dollars going there as we indicated. How those will ramp each quarter is tough to foresee right at the moment. It will be somewhat lumpy but we will keep you posted each quarter.

Craig A. Dubow

Management

In addition to that, Jim, you’ll also see the high school sports rollout as we go through and forward this year, so there will be other investments that way as well.

James Goss - Barrington Research

Management

Last quick thing -- the Wall Street Journal and USA TODAY, aside from both being national products, haven’t traditionally been especially competitive products, but do you think in the hands of News Corp as they try to broaden the appeal, that there might be any greater competitive overlap than there historically has been?

Craig A. Dubow

Management

We will continue doing everything from a marketing end that we can. We are very proud of the product that Mr. Moon at USA TODAY is putting out and we will continue to amplify in the areas that will keep us very, very competitive in that arena. But we are very excited about the continued opportunities.

James Goss - Barrington Research

Management

All right. Thanks a lot.

Operator

Operator

We’ll take the next question from Paul Ginocchio with Deutsche Bank.

Dave Clark - Deutsche Bank

Management

Good morning. This is Dave Clark for Paul. Gannett and Tribune have worked together on a number of Internet projects over the years and I’m wondering with the new ownership and management at Tribune, how you see that relationship evolving. Have you met with Mr. Zell and have you gotten a sense of his attitude and/or his plans for your joint ventures and future Internet collaborations? Thanks.

Craig A. Dubow

Management

Dave, thanks for the question. Yes, we have met with Mr. Zell and we are looking forward to the opportunities of continuing our partnerships and moving forward obviously with Metro Mix and other. We like the opportunities it provides and certainly we are in sync from that end. I know Sam is very interested in the growth opportunities as well from what he sees, so as far as I am concerned, that will continue to be a very collaborative effort as we go forward.

Dave Clark - Deutsche Bank

Management

Great, thanks.

Operator

Operator

We’ll take the next question from Ken Silver with Royal Bank of [Scotland].

Ken Silver - Royal Bank of Scotland

Management

Good morning. My voice is bad so I hope you can hear me. I have a couple of questions on CareerBuilder. Is CareerBuilder self-funding or are they partners and still putting money into it?

Gracia C. Martore

Management

It is self-funding.

Ken Silver - Royal Bank of Scotland

Management

And has Gannett received or did Gannett receive any dividends from CareerBuilder in 2007?

Gracia C. Martore

Management

No, they wouldn’t be providing dividends, other than what they provide us in an overall basis as a wonderful add-on to our print product buy.

Ken Silver - Royal Bank of Scotland

Management

Okay. As that business grows and it gains a lot of scale, do you think it’s going to pay dividends to the equity owners?

Gracia C. Martore

Management

You know, I think it’s very premature to be having that discussion. I think we’ll want them -- if they can continue to invest those dollars that they generate in robust growth, I think we’ll all be cheering them on to do that.

Ken Silver - Royal Bank of Scotland

Management

Okay, great and then I just had a question, you mentioned in your prepared remarks four states that have obviously been hit by the real estate market pretty hard. I guess at some point in 2008, do the year-over-year comps for those markets get a lot easier or are they still just significantly underperforming and you don’t see any sort of end in site to having easier comps and maybe out-performance?

Gracia C. Martore

Management

You know, obviously our comps will get a little bit easier, particularly in the third and fourth quarters. However, it’s really too early for us to call which way the real estate market is going to go for the rest of the year. So it will be highly dependent on if someone can prognosticate on where the real estate market is going, we can probably help prognosticate where those four markets will go as well.

Ken Silver - Royal Bank of Scotland

Management

What percentage of your revenue are those four markets?

Gracia C. Martore

Management

I think we talked about the fact that those four states represented about 40% of the revenues in our U.S. community newspapers, which is the lion’s share, obviously, of our newspaper segment.

Ken Silver - Royal Bank of Scotland

Management

Excluding USA TODAY?

Gracia C. Martore

Management

Yeah, that would exclude USA TODAY and exclude Newsquest.

Ken Silver - Royal Bank of Scotland

Management

Great. Thank you very much.

Gracia C. Martore

Management

You’re welcome. I think we have time for one more question.

Operator

Operator

We’ll take the last question from Ed Atorino with Benchmark Capital.

Ed Atorino - Benchmark Capital

Management

Good morning. What was the first year charge amount from the special charges other than the impairment, the consolidation, and severance? And will those go on at all?

Gracia C. Martore

Management

Well, as we said, they were about $38 million pretax, so that’s about $0.09 or so of EPS.

Ed Atorino - Benchmark Capital

Management

Should they be considered non-recurring items?

Gracia C. Martore

Management

Well, you know, I think that we’re going to have to continue to look at, as we said, where the revenue picture goes and see how we need to size the operations. Some do in the industry and in other industries, classify -- anytime you have something like that as a non-cash charge -- as a special item. We just consider that as part of the operations. Thanks, Ed, and I think that concludes the session.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. That does conclude today’s conference. We thank you for your participation and you may disconnect at this time.