Operator
Operator
Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Q1 2020 Earnings Conference Call. I would now like to turn the meeting over to Ms. Gillian Manning. Please go ahead, Ms. Manning.
The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD)
Q1 2020 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 27, 2020
$105.47
-0.16%
Same-Day
-0.75%
1 Week
-3.62%
1 Month
-20.58%
vs S&P
-8.52%
Operator
Operator
Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Q1 2020 Earnings Conference Call. I would now like to turn the meeting over to Ms. Gillian Manning. Please go ahead, Ms. Manning.
Gillian Manning
Management
Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, and welcome to TD Bank Group's first quarter 2020 investor presentation. We will begin today's presentation with remarks from Bharat Masrani, the bank's CEO; after which, Riaz Ahmed, the bank's CFO, will present our first quarter operating results; Ajai Bambawale, Chief Risk Officer, will then offer comments on credit quality, after which, we will invite questions from pre-qualified analysts and investors on the phone. Also present today to answer your questions are Teri Currie, Group Head Canadian Personal Banking; Greg Braca, President and CEO, TD Bank, America's Most Convenient Bank; and Bob Dorrance, Group Head Wholesale Banking. Please turn to Slide 2. At this time, I would like to caution our listeners that this presentation contains forward-looking statements, that there are risks that actual results could differ materially from what is discussed and that certain material factors or assumptions were applied in making these forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements contained in this presentation represent the views of management and are presented for the purpose of assisting the bank's shareholders and analysts in understanding the bank's financial position, objectives and priorities and anticipated financial performance. Forward-looking statements may not be appropriate for other purposes. I would also like to remind listeners that the bank uses non-GAAP financial measures to arrive at adjusted results to assess each of its businesses and to measure overall bank performance. The bank believes that adjusted results provide readers with a better understanding of how management views the bank's performance. Bharat will be referring to adjusted results in his remarks. Additional information on items of note, the bank's reported results and factors and assumptions related to forward-looking information are all available in our Q1 2020 report to shareholders. With that, let me turn this presentation over to Bharat.
Bharat Masrani
Management
Thank you, Gillian, and thank you, everyone for joining us today. Q1 was a solid quarter for TD. Earnings rose 4% to $3.1 billion and EPS was up 6% to $1.66. Revenue increased 6% on strong volume growth and record wholesale revenue. As the investments we've been making in our people and capabilities enable us to continue acquiring more customers and doing more business with them. We maintained a strong capital position, with our CET1 ratio, ending the quarter at 11.7%, including the impact from IFRS 16, and the repurchase of over 4 million common shares. We also declared a $0.05 dividend increase today, bringing our dividend per share to $0.79 for the quarter, up 7% from a year ago. For a 5-year compound annual growth rate of 9%. I'm pleased with our performance this quarter, which saw us earn through some significant headwinds. Let me highlight a few accomplishments that speak to the power of our strategy and our success and executing on it. In December, TD Bank America's most convenient Bank, ranked number one in the JD Power 2019 U.S. national banking satisfaction study. This is our first ever national trophy in the first year that we were eligible for the survey. The win is all the more meaningful given the peer group, which includes some of the nation's largest and most storing banks, many of which operate coast to coast. We followed a disciplined strategy since entering the U.S. market, keeping our customers at the center of everything we do. I couldn't be more proud of our team. It’s their relentless focus on providing legendary unexpectedly human experiences that has earned us this milestone recognition. In this survey, TD ranked best among national banks, for both store experience and online satisfaction. That's what our omnichannel strategy is…
Riaz Ahmed
Management
Thank you, Bharat. Good afternoon, everyone. Please turn to slide 7. This quarter, the Bank reported earnings of CAD3 billion and EPS of CAD1.61. Adjusted earnings were just under CAD3.1 billion and adjusted EPS was CAD1.66. Revenue increased 6%, reflecting volume growth in the retail segments and record revenue in Wholesale. Provisions for credit losses increased to CAD919 million, up 3% from the prior quarter on higher impaired PCL. Expenses decreased 7% on a reported basis, reflecting prior charges related to the agreement with Air Canada. Adjusted expenses increased 5%, reflecting higher spend supporting business initiatives and volume growth, and changes in pension costs, partially offset by continued productivity savings. Please turn to slide 8; Canadian retail net income was CAD1.8 billion, up 30% year-over-year, reflecting charges related to the Air Canada loyalty agreement, a year ago. On an adjusted basis, net income decreased 2%, as revenue growth was offset by higher expenses, credit losses and insurance claims. Revenue increased by 4%, primarily reflecting volume growth. Average loans grew 4%, and deposits increased 7% year-over-year, reflecting growth in both personal and business volumes, and wealth assets grew 10%. Margin was 2.94%, a decrease of 2 basis points from the prior quarter, reflecting seasonality and the impact of interest expense relating to lease liabilities recorded upon adoption of the IFRS 16 standard for leases. Total PCL decreased 2% quarter-over-quarter, with decreases in impaired and performing PCL. Total PCL as an annualized percentage of credit volume was 36 basis points, down 1 basis point quarter-over-quarter. Expenses decreased 15%, reflecting prior year charges related to the Air Canada agreement. On an adjusted basis, expenses rose 7%, reflecting higher spend supporting the business initiatives that Bharat described earlier, volume driven expenses and changes in pension costs, partially offset by a reduction in operating expense,…
Ajai Bambawale
Management
Thank you, Riaz and good afternoon everyone. Overall, credit quality continued to be good across the bank's portfolios in the first quarter. Please turn to slide 13; gross impaired loan formations were CAD1.69 billion or 24 basis points, up 2 basis points quarter-over-quarter and down 2 basis points year-over-year. The quarter-over-quarter increase in gross impaired loan formations, was primarily driven by borrower specific idiosyncratic events in the Wholesale segment. Please turn to slide 14 gross impaired loans ended the quarter at CAD3.2 billion or 45 basis points, up 2 basis points quarter-over-quarter and down 8 basis points year-over-year. The quarter-over-quarter increase in gross impaired loans was primarily reflected in the Wholesale segment. Please turn to slide 15; recall that our presentation reports PCL ratios, both gross and net of the partner's share of the U.S. strategic card credit losses. We remind you, that credit losses recorded in the corporate segment are fully absorbed by our partners, and do not impact the Bank's net income. The Bank's PCLs in the quarter were CAD923 million or 52 basis points, stable quarter-over-quarter and up 2 basis points year-over-year. Please turn to slide 16; the Bank's impaired PCL increased CAD69 million quarter-over-quarter, primarily driven by the Wholesale segment due to credit migration and the U.S. credit card portfolio, largely reflecting seasonal trends, partially offset by lower provisions in the Canadian commercial portfolio. Performing PCL decreased CAD39 million quarter-over-quarter, largely related to the Wholesale segment reflecting prior quarter provisions and current quarter credit migration from performing to impaired, partially offset by higher provisions in the U.S. commercial portfolio. In summary, credit quality continued to be good across the Bank's portfolios this quarter, and we remain well positioned for growth in our lending portfolios. With that operator, we are now ready to begin the Q&A session.
Operator
Operator
[Operator Instructions] The first question is from Meny Grauman of Cormark Securities. Please proceed.
Meny Grauman
Analyst
Hi, good afternoon. Just wanted to ask about the margin outlook, definitely rate expectations are changing quickly, now looks like the market is pricing in three cuts in the U.S. and two in Canada. I'm wondering what the implications of that would be for your outlook on margins, in U.S. and Canada?
Bharat Masrani
Management
So Meny, maybe I'll start and maybe turn it over to Teri from there. But in the U.S., obviously we're watching this real-time and as of a month ago, there were really no rate cut expectations for the foreseeable future and this is happening real-time and we continue to watch along with yourselves. We've given guidance in Q4 about what the impact of a rate cut means to us, and what we've seen for the first three rate cuts that happened in the latter part of 2019. We believe would continue to apply to any future rate cuts in 2020, and we've generally set those rate cuts per 25 basis point cut annualized over the course of the year, would be worth somewhere around $90 million on the short end -- just on the short end, and so far, that's what we've seen play out. Teri?
Teri Currie
Analyst
Sure. From a Canadian perspective, just in general, we're expecting a downward pressure on margins. We built into our plan one cut, and so that's the starting point, and we would have thought downward pressure, the rate environment, RESL, in term competitive pricing and then IFRS 16, rounding out the reasons why. Our equivalent of the $90 million would be CAD150 million for a 25 basis point cut at the short end with an immediate effect.
Meny Grauman
Analyst
Thanks. And then just on capital, you talked about allocation to businesses from 10% to 10.5%, is that just reflecting the increased buffer, or is there something else there?
Riaz Ahmed
Management
Well, it wouldn't be right to just related to the increased buffer, because obviously that is now sitting at 10.25%, but we just felt that as capital expectations are rising, that it's appropriate to increase the allocation to the business segments Meny.
Meny Grauman
Analyst
And just thinking through it in terms of sort of practical implications, can you just kind of talk to that? And if there is anything in terms of practical implications from that change?
Riaz Ahmed
Management
No, I don't think so, because as you know, we look at capital at the top of the house and we've always been carrying this capital and simply make an allocation change, which essentially takes capital from the Corporate segment into the Business segment. So I think in terms of our business activity, there wouldn't really be any notable or material changes in how we run the businesses across the segments.
Operator
Operator
Thank you. The next question is from Ebrahim Poonawala of Bank of America. Please proceed. Your line is open.
Ebrahim Poonawala
Analyst
Good afternoon. I guess, Greg, I just had a follow-up question on the U.S. margins first. So when I look at your margin, $307 million in the first quarter, compared to $308 million back in 2015 before the Fed started raising rates, just trying to understand like why has -- what in the balance sheet mix has changed so drastically, that we are already where -- when the Fed was at zero, and because it doesn't sound like you expect any improved margin defensibility for any incremental rate cut. So would love any color on that?
Greg Braca
Analyst
Sure. So you're taking us back a number of years now, five years or so, and as we've talked about, generally we're always commenting on the impact quarter-to-quarter, and what that looks like, or the changes that have been made over the course of the year. When you go back over four of five years as you would know, we've talked about this previously, there are many other inputs than just what the Fed funds rate would be. It would be mix of the business. It's long-term rates, it's tractoring and it's the general strategies of the business and that mix of the business. So there's a lot that's gone into that over the last four or five years. I would generally say that, over the last quarter, and over the last year the decline you've seen from the high, generally fits with what we've been calling out, and it really is playing out on the short end the way we would see it. And in the last quarter, quite frankly our quarter-over-quarter decline pretty much is in keeping with peers in the U.S. that we would have seen, especially if you consider the fact that we had one more month in this quarter versus their reporting cycle ending on December, for the last Fed cut.
Riaz Ahmed
Management
Ebrahim, I think it's also worth pointing out, it's Riaz, I think quarter-over-quarter analysis that Greg was talking about, the adoption of IFRS 16 would have put a 4 basis point pressure on margin in the U.S. segment.
Ebrahim Poonawala
Analyst
Understood. That's helpful, and I get what you mentioned about the mix, but when I look back four years ago, your commercial book was still 42%. It's about 41% today. So, and maybe I can follow up offline to better understand the drivers of the mix change. I guess just moving to Canada Retail, we noticed a pretty decent slowdown in the HELOC growth and you've seen a pickup in I guess fixed rate residential mortgage growth. Just if you can talk about what's going on there and what implications that mix shift. Should we expect that trend to continue? Is that by design? And what that mean for the incremental margin?
Teri Currie
Analyst
For sure. Thanks. So if you look at the originations in Q1, the total portfolio had about 4.4% at a spot basis year-over-year growth and the flex line growth would have been 4.5%, so just slightly higher. I think the other relevant statistic to your question is, all of the growth more than the growth of the portfolio. So, 5.6% year-over-year was the combination of mortgage and fixed HELOC. So what we are seeing is in a low rate environment customers taking the sort of decision to lock in. In terms of sort of HELOC overall, the slightly more than mortgage that would still be the fourth place share that we've talked about in terms of hybrid HELOC mortgage and 96% of that origination is actually the TD Canada Trust customers. So, quite comfortable with what we're originating there. In terms of the sort of ongoing, how this will play out over time, every time we meet with the customer, we help them to make the right decision around the right product that meets their needs. And so, as the environment shifts, you could see some shifting in the mix.
Operator
Operator
Thank you. The next question is from Sumit Malhotra of Scotiabank. Please proceed.
Sumit Malhotra
Analyst
Thanks, good afternoon. To start with Ajai please. You were pretty specific with us on the Q4 call in thinking about where the provision ratio would trend in 2020, in and around 50 basis points. I just wanted to get your view with -- early days obviously, but with the impact, the COVID-19 virus is having on some economic growth estimates and perhaps business activity. Has it changed the way you're thinking about the provision outlook for the bank this year? And that may relate to the performing portfolio as well. And is there any change in the traditional pattern of seasonality in and around the credit card and then auto portfolios as far as your visibility on that is concerned?
Ajai Bambawale
Management
Yes. So let me start with COVID. So what I would say is, as you're aware, the situation is still playing out, certainly from a credit perspective, up to now we haven't seen any material business impact. We, however, continuing to monitor developments and really looking at different scenarios that could play out, so as of now, from a credit perspective, there is nothing in our forecast relating to PCL. We have however has been spending time on things like our employees and our customers and certainly the health and safety and business continuity. I think that's been quite important. So I'll come back to guidance. My guidance, which was in the neighborhood of 50 basis points subject to seasonality and subject to supportive economic conditions for now remains unchanged. And then your third question was about seasonality. So Q1, as you know, tends to be a high seasonal quarter, and if you look at the U.S. segment and the corporate segment on a combined basis, you will see an increase and that increase is largely because of seasonality. However, I do acknowledge the seasonality wasn't as much as we've seen in the previous years. And the reason for that is, we've actually taken some risk-reducing actions in those portfolios and this is particularly U.S. cards. So, bit of that is playing out.
Sumit Malhotra
Analyst
Thanks for that. And second question is for Riaz or Teri, and thinking about the expense outlook for the Personal and Commercial Bank. So again, this is another area where we usually have seen over the past with TD -- past number of years with TD, there is some seasonality when you start the new year and usually we see a reset in the expense level. You've talked about the spending required for the Aeroplan refresh and some other project activity you have. I just want to ask the question, because you did take a small restructuring charge, small in the context of TD as a whole. And I know it didn't impact this segment as a whole, but it does seem like the restructuring conversation has picked up for this sector again. As far as TD is concerned in your view, Riaz, is the restructuring initiatives now complete for the Bank and is what we see on the expense line going to be more run rate? Or is there a contemplation that to fund some of the project activity you have in mind you may need to reduce another layer of structural costs?
Riaz Ahmed
Management
Yes. A couple of -- maybe two or three things I might point out in relation to that question, Sumit. So, you will recall that in Q4 that I had mentioned that at the bank wide level, expense levels and expense growth had stabilized to four or five quarters in a row and that has continued to play out this quarter. So we continue to be very happy with the expense performance in aggregate and the growth in Q1, reflecting the investments that we need to make. And secondly on the seasonality point, we, as you know, have been working quite hard to remove that from our expense profile and have gone a fair bit fairways to achieve that. And what you're seeing now is not so much seasonality, but more in the timing of when those expenses are incurred. So, for example, in Canadian Personal Bank, Teri had started talking about increasing investments in branch transformation as well as the kind of investments that you referred to in the middle of last year and you see expenses reflecting that into Q3, Q4, and then Q1, where we are stable again. So that in personal and commercial banking, in the second half of the year, you'll see growth rates and expenses moderate a fair bit. I think as to the matter of restructuring charge, you will recall that in Q4, I said that our restructuring charge was not particularly related to expense savings or productivity but was a continuing exercise in optimizing processes and procedures that we've been building as we undertake the various transformation exercises, and I would say that that's going to continue in the Bank. As technology changes, the effect of disruption, the investments that we're making in omni-channel delivery of our products and services to our customers, the changes in the environment, may from time to time cause us to review how we do business, and it could be that we may see restructuring charges in that order from time to time.
Sumit Malhotra
Analyst
Last point though, and just to go back to something you said, the way I look at it expense growth on an all bank level year-over-year, this quarter was 5% and that's the same as we had in 2019, again, at least the way I look at it. Is that, in your view, a reasonable level for us to expect in terms of a run rate all Bank expense growth mark for TD?
Riaz Ahmed
Management
I would say that it gives us sufficient envelope to make the investments that we feel that we need to make to continue to build on our leadership positions in the market.
Operator
Operator
Thank you. The next question is from Doug Young of Desjardins Capital. Please proceed.
Doug Young
Analyst
Hi, good morning -- sorry, it's been a long day, good afternoon. Just on the CET1 ratio, when I look at your Slide 12, Riaz, and I look at internal capital generation and risk-weighted asset growth, I mean, essentially there was no organic internal capital generation this quarter. So, I'm just trying to get a sense of, was there something abnormal or unusual in the RWA increase that may not continue? Because I look at your growth in your Canadian retail and U.S. retail, it didn't feel like it was that. I think you mentioned Wholesale. So just trying to get a sense of that. And as we look forward, TD's ability to generate internal organic capital, has that changed in your view?
Riaz Ahmed
Management
Thank you for that question Doug. No, I think this particular quarter, the organic RWA deployment as you point out, is somewhat elevated. It isn't in my view and in my expectation, a run rate level of quarterly RWA investment, but from time-to-time, there are situations where we can take advantage of certain positions. So we have our normal client growth and then we have opportunities to increase investment every now and then. In this particular quarter, we had some very good opportunities to look at certain exposures and adjust them to increase our productivity on capital deployed.
Doug Young
Analyst
Can you elaborate on what those interesting opportunities were? Is this more of -- is this repo? Or is this -- just wanted to get a little more detail.
Riaz Ahmed
Management
Yes. I think it's mostly in the Wholesale segment. And I don't think it's going to be particularly productive to point them out other than to say that there were some interesting opportunities for us to deploy some capital.
Doug Young
Analyst
Okay. And then just Capital Markets, there is a sizable new gross impaired loan formation. Just hoping to get a little bit more detail on what that related to. I think it was mentioned in idiosyncratic-related events that occurred in the quarter. Just hoping you could flesh that out a bit.
Ajai Bambawale
Management
Yes, it's Ajai, I'll respond to that. So we did have three impairments in capital markets, two of them were in pipeline, oil and gas, and one of them was in media. They were all idiosyncratic events. I don't really see any theme or trend here. So -- and you'll have also noticed that we had already built a part of the provision. So that's the reason why some of the performing provision is moving to impaired.
Doug Young
Analyst
Okay. You answered my other question. And then -- answered, and then just Ajai, you talked about, you took risk reducing actions in the U.S. on the U.S. card portfolio. Can you give a little more detail on that?
Ajai Bambawale
Management
Yes, I can. So it's a combination of things. I'd say one is investment in collections. Second is just refining the Buy Box a little. So being more selective with clients. A third good example would be credit line decreases. So we did a combination of things on that portfolio.
Operator
Operator
Thank you. The next question is from Nigel D'Souza of Veritas Investment. Please proceed.
Nigel D'Souza
Analyst
I just have one quick question for you. If I could turn to your U.S. Retail segment, I noticed that the effective tax rate this quarter for that segment was, it's fairly low at about 4.5%. Could you just provide us some color on what's driving that lower effective tax rate this quarter? And how should we think about the run rate for your effective tax rate in U.S. Retail going forward?
Greg Braca
Analyst
So, Nigel, thank you for the question. And as you would know that we take various estimates on our tax liabilities over several exposures and we'll regularly update the provision based on new information, resolution of tax matters, and changes in regulations. And these kind of events would be fairly common quarter-to-quarter and we'll move around a little bit. In aggregate this quarter, they tended to all be favorable, and at the same time, they all tended to be more significant of an impact for this quarter than would be typical in a usual quarter.
Nigel D'Souza
Analyst
And what run rate do you expect going forward for 2020 on that tax rate?
Greg Braca
Analyst
Yes, I think it would be helpful to look at the normally quarterly run rate over the last year since tax reform was probably a good guide.
Operator
Operator
Thank you. The next question is from Gabriel Dechaine of National Bank Financial. Please proceed.
Gabriel Dechaine
Analyst
Question for Teri. OSFI in the recent speech talked about, they're taking a closer look at HELOCs and an issue with readvancable loans. Can you maybe tell me how you interpret that commentary, and what the TD, given the size of it, HELOC book, what exposure there might be? And how you see this issue playing out?
Teri Currie
Analyst
So, thanks for the question. I think we're very comfortable with the way our product is designed in terms of 65% of the loan-to-value portion being able to be readvancable and then up to 80% fixed. We, obviously as OSFI looks at this issue, would participate as we would in any consultation if there was the opportunity to do so. I think if we just step back and look at the -- how we've been originating business in the HELOC book, as we've talked about, it's again largely been to TD Canada Trust customers who we know well; 96% of the recent quarter in originations as I mentioned, and so quite comfortable with the quality of the borrowers. And if we look at the specifics of the product over time, we've seen very little increase in the actual utilization of those HELOCs over time. In fact slightly down quarter-over-quarter in Q1 of this year and only up very marginally year-over-year. And so I think the onus is on us to ensure that as we're talking to customers, we're putting them in the product that makes the most sense for them, and that they understand the product that they purchase from us, and that's how we're spending our time and attention.
Gabriel Dechaine
Analyst
So you're not seeing any increased, I guess, stubborn levels of indebtedness? So people are actually paying off rather than as the LTV goes down and not tapping into it more?
Teri Currie
Analyst
So in Q1, 88% of HELOCs and 95% of total RESL would have been paying down principal in Q1 as an example just to give you a sense of how the book is operating.
Operator
Operator
Thank you. The next question is from Sohrab Movahedi of BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed.
Sohrab Movahedi
Analyst
Thank you. Couple of questions, maybe one to start off with Bob, Bob Dorrance. Bob, the lending book in your -- in the Wholesale Bank was up about 13% year-over-year. Would the RWAs have been up about the same?
Bob Dorrance
Analyst
No, they would not have been up about the same. Majority of that growth still would be an investment grade lending and that tends to be a revolving credit to a large amount. So we did have good growth in RWA as Riaz commented on. Some of that would have been in corporate lending, some would have been markets, and some was in fact -- probably two-thirds of our growth was business-driven, and we had another third that was related to regulatory change.
Sohrab Movahedi
Analyst
Okay. And in the past, I think you had said that as far as the segment expenses CAD600 million or so quarterly is probably the new norm. That's still valid?
Bob Dorrance
Analyst
That's a good question, Sohrab. We ran at CAD600 million most of the year, last year. As you recall, we had a very difficult first quarter last year, so --and a better quarter 12 months later. So, variable comp was up. Those numbers will have a different rate of growth year-over-year, because last year the trend improved. So, I would not expect that it would be the same magnitude of growth in variable comp on a quarter-over-quarter -- or year-over-year basis. So that should level out. There was a change in an accounting change in how security lending fees and underwriting costs get recognized last year. They would have been a contra-revenue this year that're an expense. So, between the increase in the variable comp and that item, we would have been roughly flat. But there is some inflation. I do expect that we're not expecting any growth in FTE this year. We continue to invest in systems projects significantly related to still regulatory change that is still going on. I think you see that in all the dealer both sides of the border. Though we're trying to maintain that at an appropriate pace, and at the same time, we're also looking at productivity to help fund that part of what we're doing. So long way of saying it may be slightly higher than CAD600 million a quarter, if it is, that would be...
Sohrab Movahedi
Analyst
Revenue driven.
Bob Dorrance
Analyst
By growth, yes.
Sohrab Movahedi
Analyst
And if I could just sneak one more in for Ajai. Ajai, I think in the Canadian Retail risk discussion in the shareholder report, anyway you call out credit migration in auto portfolios. Can you comment a little bit about exactly what that is? And if that's going to have any bearing around future growth prospects for the portfolio?
Ajai Bambawale
Management
So what's occurring is really that business is growing, so some of the credit migration is also linked to higher volumes. And then there are mix changes occurring as well. So there is more prime non-sub rented in that portfolio. So it's a combination of volumes and mix changes that are driving that. I remain quite satisfied with the book and the underwriting standards in that business.
Sohrab Movahedi
Analyst
And so, Teri, you're okay to continue to originate, I guess, with whatever risk standards there are? You can maintain that growth rate?
Teri Currie
Analyst
The business is continuing to drive good growth in that business. I think quite comfortable with the relationships that we've built in the business that we've done.
Operator
Operator
Thank you. The next question is from Darko Mihelic of RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed.
Darko Mihelic
Analyst
Hi, thank you. My question is for Teri. And it's just rather straightforward. I think we've had some discussion around elevated spend. I just wondered if you could maybe provide us a little more color on when you expect the revenue benefits from these initiatives and how quickly it ramps up.
Teri Currie
Analyst
Sure. Thank you for the question. So maybe I can take a step back. I'd start with saying I feel like we're quite well positioned with the investments we have been making and continue to make in the business, not only for all of our customers F needs. And I think, Bharat mentioned some of the investments, Air Canada and future ready, in particular, and as did Riaz, and then the shape sort of implications on the expense side, as you've noted, the Q2 to Q3 step up and then a relatively stable pattern following an expected going forward. The PCL piece also is something that we haven't talked about, but if you look at kind of through 2019, we kind of got to CAD400 million PCL levels in the business, and that is, from a year-over-year perspective for this quarter and next quarter, and that'll be something that will be a year-over-year headwind. And then on the revenue side, there was some softness this quarter, and I would say a couple of things played into that. One thing is as we went through the transformation and continue to transform under our future ready strategy, that was a very significant and continues to be transformation of our business to elevate advice, increase customer and colleague confidence, and meet more customer needs. And in the early -- in late 2018, we brought all branch managers from across the country together for the very first time. We did not do that post the TD Canada Trust integration, and we kicked off this very significant change, and the change was to roles and responsibilities in the branch. It was to the performance ecosystem. It was to invest more in client-facing advisors. And Bharat mentioned across Canadian Retail, we have over 15 -- almost…
Darko Mihelic
Analyst
And is it fair to say then that this momentum is kicking in now, so I should be seeing it as early as next quarter?
Teri Currie
Analyst
I think what -- these things do take time to season, but I think we're quite comfortable you will see this in financial results in the later part of the year. We do expect, barring any macro events, a positive operating leverage for the second half and continued mid-single digit volume growth in loans and deposits.
Operator
Operator
Thank you. This concludes the question period. I will now like to return the meeting back over to Mr. Bharat Masrani. Please proceed, sir.
Bharat Masrani
Management
Thank you, operator, and thank you all for joining us this afternoon. Just to reiterate, I am very pleased with the performance, particularly given the significant headwinds that we had outlined in Q4 for this coming year. And not to repeat everything that got said on the call, with the reduced earnings from TD Ameritrade to the tune of $300 million for this year, I should add that those -- that run rate will be recaptured once the Schwab deal is closed, and we start seeing some of the synergies flow through. Then, of course, Greg talked about the three rate cuts in the United States that happened in our fiscal Q4. So, given our sensitivity to rates, particularly in our U.S. business, it is not surprising that that's a headwind for us. And then of course, we have and will continue to invest in Canadian Retail. That is a core part of what we want to do. And we're starting to see great results out of it. So overall, given the fundamental performance with volumes and what we're seeing on customer metrics, very happy with how the Bank is performing. So, once again, thank you for joining us, and I would like to take this opportunity to thank our close to 90,000 colleagues around the world for continuing to deliver for all of our stakeholders, including our shareholders. Thank you and see you in 90 days.
Operator
Operator
Thank you. The conference has now ended. You can disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.