Earnings Labs

The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD)

Q4 2015 Earnings Call· Thu, Dec 3, 2015

$105.39

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Transcript

Executives

Management

Rudy Sankovic - Head of Investor Relations Bharat Masrani - Group President, Chief Executive Officer, Non-Independent Director Colleen Johnston - Group Head of Finance, Sourcing and Corporate Communications and Chief Financial Officer Mark Chauvin - Group Head and Chief Risk Officer, Risk Management Tim Hockey - Group Head of Canadian Banking, Auto Finance and Wealth Management, TD Bank Group , President and Chief Executive Officer, TD Canada Trust Mike Pedersen - Group Head of U.S. Personal and Commercial Banking, TD Bank Group and President and Chief Executive Officer, TD Bank US Holding Company, TD Bank, N.A. and TD Bank USA, N.A. Riaz Ahmed - Group Head Insurance, Credit Cards and Enterprise Strategy

Analysts

Management

Gabriel Dechaine - Canaccord Genuity Steve Theriault - Bank of America Meny Grauman - Cormark Securities Sohrab Movahedi - BMO Capital Markets Robert Sedran - CIBC World Markets Sumit Malhotra - Scotia Capital Peter Routledge - National Bank Financial Mario Mendonca - TD Securities Darko Mihelic - RBC Capital Markets

Presentation

Management

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the TD Bank Group's fourth quarter 2015 investor presentation. Please be advised that this call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the meeting over to Mr. Rudy Sankovic, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Rudy Sankovic

Management

Thank you very much, operator. Good afternoon, everybody. We will begin today's presentation with remarks from Bharat Masrani, the bank's CEO, after which Colleen Johnston, the bank's CFO will present our fourth quarter operating results. Mark Chauvin, Chief Risk Officer, will then offer comments on credit quality after which we will invite questions from pre-qualified analysts and investors on the phone. Also present today to answer your questions are Tim Hockey, Group Head Canadian Banking and Wealth Management, Mike Pedersen, Group Head U.S. Banking, Bob Dorrance, Group Head Wholesale Banking and Riaz Ahmed, Group Head Insurance, Credit Cards and Enterprise Strategy. Riaz is also responsible for the Capital and Treasury activities at the Bank. Please turn to Slide 2. At this time, I would like to caution our listeners that this presentation contains forward-looking statements. There are risks that actual results could differ materially from what is discussed and that certain material factors or assumptions were applied in making these forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements contained in this presentation represent the views of management and are presented for the purpose of assisting the bank's shareholders and analysts in understanding the bank's financial position, objectives and priorities and anticipated financial performance. Forward-looking statements may not be appropriate for other purposes. I would also like to remind listeners that the bank uses non-GAAP financial measures to arrive at adjusted results to assess each of its businesses and to measure overall bank performance. The bank believes that adjusted results provide readers with a better understanding of how management views the bank's performance. Bharat will be referring to adjusted results in his remarks. Additional information on items of note, the bank's reported results and factors and assumptions related to the forward-looking information are all available in our Q4 2015 report to shareholders. With that, let me turn the presentation over to Bharat.

Bharat Masrani

Management

Thank you, Rudy and good afternoon, everyone. As Rudy mentioned, Colleen will be up shortly to discuss our financial results in detail, but let me start by sharing my perspectives on our performance. Overall I am pleased with our results this quarter. The bank generated EPS of CAD1.14, up 16% from a softer quarter in the prior year. Good volume growth, along with positive operating leverage and a stronger U.S. dollar helped drive our results. As expected, we saw increased credit provisions, but quality remains strong. Our full-year EPS of CAD4.61 was up 8%, a good outcome in mixed market conditions. These results were driven by revenue growth across all of our businesses along with stable credit quality and improvements in productivity. We ended the year with CET1 of 9.9%. We continue to have strong capital leverage and liquidity ratios and today we announced a CAD9.5 million share buyback program in 2016, subject to regulatory approvals. This is to offset dilution from the dividend reinvestment plan and issuance related to stock options. Let's take a closer look at each of our business segments. Canadian retail earnings were up 8%, driven by growth in personal and commercial banking and insurance, strong asset growth in wealth and a healthy increase in loan and deposit volumes. We delivered good operating leverage and credit quality across all products remains high. TD continues to stand out as the brand of choice in the marketplace. J.D. Power recently awarded TD Wealth top honors among the big five banks in its Full Service Investor Satisfaction Survey and Ipsos recognized TD as the best bank in customer service among the big five. 2015 marked the 11th consecutive year that we received this award. Our U.S. retail earnings were up 5%. We continue to deliver above-average volume growth and…

Colleen Johnston

Management

Well, thanks Bharat and good afternoon, everyone. Please turn to slide four. Before we look at the fourth quarter in detail, let's start with a brief review of 2015. For the full-year, total bank adjusted net income was CAD8.8 billion, up 8% from 2014. Adjusted EPS was $4.61, also up 8%. Our retail businesses had a great year. Canadian retail delivered strong earnings growth of 8%, driven by good growth in loans, deposits and wealth asset, net of margin compression, lower credit losses, higher insurance earnings and positive operating leverage. U.S. retail earnings grew 21%, reflecting good organic growth and the stronger U.S. dollar. In U.S. dollars earnings grew by 5% due to strong loan and deposit growth, steady credit performance, good expense management and a lower effective tax rate, partially offset by margin compression and lower security gains. Wholesale banking earnings increased 7% this year, due largely to strong top line growth. The corporate segment loss increased in 2015, due largely to nonrecurring positive items in 2014. We were pleased to achieve positive operating leverage for the year. We finished the year with a CET1 ratio of 9.9%. Overall, a good performance from our businesses in 2015. Please turn to slide five. This quarter, we delivered adjusted EPS of CAD 1.14, up 16% year-over-year. The quarter reflected strong results for Canadian and U.S. retail up 10% and 6%, respectively. Wholesale delivered earnings growth of 23% versus a soft Q4 in 2014. The corporate segment loss posted a loss of CAD 161 million. We continue to benefit from a stronger U.S. dollar. Adjusted total revenue increased 11% year-over-year, net of claims or 3.5% excluding FX and acquisitions, led by good loan deposit and wealth asset growth, higher insurance premium growth and higher fee-based and trading revenue. Growth was partially offset…

Mark Chauvin

Management

Good afternoon, everyone. Please turn to slide 13. We have had another good quarter to close out a strong year from a credit quality perspective. The increase in provision for credit losses during the quarter was attributed to one-time provisions of $34 million to account for the South Carolina floods, $18 million in provisions relating to two borrowers in the oil and gas segment and lastly an increase in incurred but not yet identified provision for losses largely due to volume growth. The full-year annual provision for credit loss rate was constant year-over-year at 34 basis points. Gross impaired loans remained stable at 58 basis points, up two basis points year-over-year. Based on current economic forecasts, we would expect 2016 performance to be largely in line with 2015. I would like to speak in more detail to two specific areas. First, this quarter we saw an increase of $140 million in gross impaired loans resulting from the renewal of legacy HELOC interest only products which are no longer offered by the U.S. bank. Let me take a minute to explain why this occurs and why we don't believe it will result in material increase in credit losses. If a customer does not qualify under current underwriting standards when their interest only HELOC comes due to renewal, we are required to classify the exposure impaired based on regulatory guidance, even if the customer is still making their payments. To put this into perspective, of the total U.S. legacy interest only HELOC impaired population, 90% are current with their payments. We expect this trend in increased gross HELOC impaired loans to continue during 2016 leveling off by year-end. Based on the current strength of the U.S. economy, increasing home prices and existing reserve levels, we do not expect to experience material increase in HELOC credit losses in 2016. Next, with respect to our oil and gas exposure, we were not surprised by the level of impaired loan formations this quarter. Ongoing analysis indicates that the oil and gas nonretail credit portfolio continues to perform within expectations, given the current level in near-term outlook for commodity prices in this sector. We are beginning to see signs of deterioration in the oil impacted provinces consumer credit portfolios, which again are well within our earlier expectations. Based on ongoing stress tests conducted against the credit portfolios, I remain comfortable that the potential impact of low energy prices on the bank's credit losses remains well within the range of a 5% to 10% increase over 2015 levels. With that, I will turn the presentation back to Colleen.

Rudy Sankovic

Management

Sorry. Operator, can we turn it over for questions, please? So I will turn it over to you.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. We will go ahead with our first question from Gabriel Dechaine of Canaccord Genuity. Please go ahead.

Gabriel Dechaine

Analyst

Mark Chauvin

Management

Gabriel Dechaine

Analyst

Bharat Masrani

Management

Gabriel Dechaine

Analyst

Bharat Masrani

Management

Gabriel Dechaine

Analyst

Colleen Johnston

Management

Gabriel Dechaine

Analyst

Colleen Johnston

Management

Bharat Masrani

Management

Gabriel Dechaine

Analyst

Tim Hockey

Analyst

Colleen Johnston

Management

Operator

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of Steve Theriault of Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Steve Theriault

Analyst

Bharat Masrani

Management

Steve Theriault

Analyst

Bharat Masrani

Management

Steve Theriault

Analyst

Tim Hockey

Analyst

Mike Pedersen

Analyst

Steve Theriault

Analyst

Tim Hockey

Analyst

Steve Theriault

Analyst

Tim Hockey

Analyst

Operator

Operator

Your next question will comes from the line of Meny Grauman of Cormark Securities. Please go ahead.

Meny Grauman

Analyst

Mark Chauvin

Management

Meny Grauman

Analyst

Tim Hockey

Analyst

Meny Grauman

Analyst

Operator

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of Sohrab Movahedi of BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Sohrab Movahedi

Analyst

Tim Hockey

Analyst

Sohrab Movahedi

Analyst

Mike Pedersen

Analyst

Sohrab Movahedi

Analyst

Riaz Ahmed

Analyst

Sohrab Movahedi

Analyst

Riaz Ahmed

Analyst

Sohrab Movahedi

Analyst

Operator

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of Robert Sedran of CIBC World Markets. Please go ahead.

Robert Sedran

Analyst

Mike Pedersen

Analyst

Robert Sedran

Analyst

Mark Chauvin

Management

Robert Sedran

Analyst

Mark Chauvin

Management

Robert Sedran

Analyst

Mark Chauvin

Management

Robert Sedran

Analyst

Operator

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of Sumit Malhotra of Scotia Capital. Please go ahead.

Sumit Malhotra

Analyst

Colleen Johnston

Management

Bharat Masrani

Management

Sumit Malhotra

Analyst

Bharat Masrani

Management

Sumit Malhotra

Analyst

Mike Pedersen

Analyst

Sumit Malhotra

Analyst

Operator

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of Peter Routledge of National Bank Financial. Please go ahead.

Peter Routledge

Analyst

Tim Hockey

Analyst

Peter Routledge

Analyst

Bharat Masrani

Management

Peter Routledge

Analyst

Bharat Masrani

Management

Peter Routledge

Analyst

Mark Chauvin

Management

Peter Routledge

Analyst

Operator

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of Mario Mendonca of TD Securities. Please go ahead.

Mario Mendonca

Analyst

Riaz Ahmed

Analyst

Mario Mendonca

Analyst

Riaz Ahmed

Analyst

Mario Mendonca

Analyst

Riaz Ahmed

Analyst

Bharat Masrani

Management

Mario Mendonca

Analyst

Bharat Masrani

Management

Mario Mendonca

Analyst

Operator

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of Darko Mihelic of RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Darko Mihelic

Analyst

Mike Pedersen

Analyst

Darko Mihelic

Analyst

Mike Pedersen

Analyst

Darko Mihelic

Analyst

Operator

Operator

And there are no further questions at this time. I would not like to turn the call back over to Mr. Bharat Masrani for closing remarks.

Bharat Masrani

Management

Thank you very much, operator. Just to conclude, great quarter, very happy with the progress we are making in the bank, good year-over-year performance and looking forward to 2016 or a good start to 2016. So I will just take a minute to recognize some executives that you have dealt with over many years. We have new positions, new responsibilities for some of them. The first three I will mention is Riaz, Tim and Terry. I think many of you met with them and dealt with them. So I wanted to thank them for building the bank we have and looking forward to working with them in their new positions as they add even more value to the TD shareholder. And I also want to take this opportunity to thank Colleen. This is Colleen's 40th investor call, as the bank's CFO and you have dealt with her on an ongoing basis. Colleen obviously has done a terrific job for the bank. Thank you for that, Colleen. And I know you have set the bar very high for Riaz. And I am sure he will be thinking about that through the holidays. Thanks very much and I think Colleen wanted to say a word. Before I pass it on to her, in case if I don't see many of you before the holidays, Happy Holidays and the very best for the New Year.

Colleen Johnston

Management

Well, thanks Bharat and if you will indulge me, I would just like to say that being CFO of this venerable institution for 10 years has really been a dream come true for me and I have absolutely loved it. A big part of that has been our investors and analysts. And it's been a true, true privilege to work with you as CFO. I just can't say that enough. So thank you for your trust and confidence and for your wise advice. It's actually been fun. And to my incredible team, what can I say, you are awesome and tireless and you are second to none anywhere in the world. And I couldn't have asked for more from you. So it's been a great run with more to come and I am delighted with Bharat's faith in me and the Board's faith in me as I head into my new exciting role. So thank you very much.

Bharat Masrani

Management

Thanks, Colleen and thanks very much all. I will see you then.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the conference call for today. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your line. And have a great day.