Earnings Labs

Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP)

Q2 2015 Earnings Call· Thu, Aug 6, 2015

$42.40

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to the Molson Coors Brewing Company Second Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call. Before we begin, I will paraphrase the company's Safe Harbor language. Some of the discussion today may include forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from what the company projects today, so please refer to its most recent 10-K and 10-Q filings for a more complete description of factors that could affect these projections. The company does not undertake to publicly update forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. You should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date they are made. Regarding any non-U.S. GAAP measures that may be discussed during the call and from time-to-time by the company's executives in discussing the company's performance, please visit the company's website, www.molsoncoors.com, and click on the Financial Reporting tab of the Investor Relations page for a reconciliation of these measures to the nearest U.S. GAAP results. Also, unless otherwise indicated, all financial results the company discusses are versus the comparable prior year period and in U.S. dollars. Now I would like to turn the call over to Mark Hunter, President and CEO of Molson Coors. Please go ahead.

Mark Hunter

Management

Thank you, Carmen. Hello and welcome, everybody, to the Molson Coors earnings call. And many thanks for joining us today. With me on the call this morning, we have Gavin Hattersley, CFO of Molson Coors and currently the Interim CEO of Miller Coors and from Molson Coors we have Stewart Glendinning, our Canada CEO, Simon Cox, our CEO for European business; Kandy Anand, our International CEO; Sam Walker, our Chief Legal and People Officer; Brian Tabolt, our Controller; and Dave Dunnewald, our VP of Investor Relations. In the second quarter our underlying pretax earnings on a constant currency basis increased 5.9% driven by positive net pricing along with the results of cost savings initiatives. Due to higher tax rate and unfavorable foreign currency our underlying after-tax income decreased by 9.9%. We increased the gross margins in the U.S., Canada and Europe and grew net sales revenue for hectoliter in the U.S. and Canada in local currency. Overall Europe NSR per hectoliter declined in local currency, but if we exclude the impact of the terminated Modelo and Heineken contracts, NSR per hectoliter increased in all of our major Europe markets apart from Serbia. We also expanded global underlying operating margins, driven by our U.S. and Canada businesses. In the quarter we continued to implement our strategy of driving brand-led profit growth, meaningful cash generation and disciplined cash and capital allocation. We have invested consistently behind our core brands, with for example Coors Light in the U.S. growing share of segment, we made progress in transforming our portfolio toward above-premium, craft and cider and we expanded the depth and reach of our international brands in fast-growing markets. And we have continued to increase our commercial capability. Additionally this year, we have repatriated Staropramen lager to our U.K. portfolio and purchased the Mount…

Gavin Hattersley

Management

Thanks, Mark and hello, everybody. In financial highlights, underlying free cash flow for the first half of 2015 totaled $241.1 million which represents a $90.6 million decrease versus the first six months of 2014. This decrease was primarily driven by a lower underlying after-tax income, negative foreign currency and less benefit from working capital changes, including higher cash paid for taxes. Our first half free cash flow included the following factors, $198.1 million of operating cash flow and $248 million of net add-backs for our discretionary U.K. pension contribution in January. Miller Coors investments in businesses and the cash impact of special items. Investing cash outflows included $139.8 million of capital spending. Our underlying free cash flow included $692.9 million of cash distributions from Miller Coors and $758.1 million of cash invested in Miller Coors. A detailed reconciliation of our underlying free cash flow is available in our earnings release distributed this morning. Total debt at the end of the second quarter was $3.138 billion and cash and cash equivalents totaled $413.8 million, resulting in net debt of $2.724 billion, which is $430.4 million lower than a year ago. Please see the earnings release we distributed earlier this morning for a detailed review of our business unit financial results for the quarter. Looking forward to the balance of 2015. The following full year forward guidance is unchanged from last quarter. Our annual target for underlying free cash flow is $550 million, plus or minus 10%, at July 31 foreign currency rates. We expect cash contributions to our defined benefit pension plans to be in the range of $300 million to $320 million in 2015, including our 42% of Miller Coors contributions. We anticipate 2015 pension expense of approximately $27 million, including our portion of Miller Coors. We expect capital spending…

Mark Hunter

Management

Thanks, Gavin. In addition to the foreign currency headwind that Gavin just discussed, our results in the balance of this year will continue to be challenged by the termination of three major business contracts, which we anticipate will have a full-year 2015 profit impact of $40 million pretax, as well as a higher effective tax rate. Additionally and importantly, we plan to significantly step up our portfolio investments across all of our businesses. These investments will have a particularly negative impact on third quarter and overall second half bottom-line results, but we expect them to provide benefits long term, as we focus on delighting our consumers and our customers to ensure we are the first choice in the geographies and segments where we choose to play. Regionally, in the U.S., we are driving a handful of priorities. Job number one is to transform our portfolio and rediscover volume growth. And to do this, we have three focus areas. Firstly, taking share and growing our American light lagers, Coors Light and Miller Lite. As part of Coors Light's overhaul, we are rolling out a contemporary visual identity across all packaging, and we have introduced new national television advertising that emphasizes Coors Light’s Rocky Mountain heritage. Secondly, we'll continue to premiumise the portfolio and further develop Above Premium offerings that have the potential to build scale quickly and sustainably. Examples include the successful launches of Blue Moon White IPA and Leinenkugel’s Grapefruit Shandy, along with the expansion of Blue Moon Cinnamon Horchata 6-packs, as well as the introduction of Leinenkugel’s new seasonal release, Harvest Patch Shandy. And then thirdly, we will simplify and clarify our below-premium portfolio offering. Job Number Two in the US is to improve our commercial capability, including winning an on-premise and increasing the relevance of our brands in…

Operator

Operator

Your first question is from the line Judy Hong with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Judy Hong

Analyst

My first question is on Canada. So, it seems like you lost share but you’re pricing and profitability was relatively healthy. So, can you just talk a little bit about your market share performance and kind of your balancing share versus profit, it sounds like may did the investments we'll step up in the back half, so would you expect the market share performance to improve and is that really more of near term priority in Canada?

Mark Hunter

Management

Hi, Judy. Let me offer you just a couple of comments and then Stewart can pick up on the detail. I think the encouraging thing in Canada as you mentioned is our pricing performance was strong and having now secure de-pricing performance clearly, it gives us option as we move into the second half of the year, a signal very clearly that we do intends step up the level of our commercial investments behind out portfolio. Stewart, do you want to talk about some of the priorities as we go through the second half of the year?

Stewart Glendinning

Analyst

Sure, Mark. Look, Judy, we're not going to give any specific guidance on where we think share will end up. I think there is always a careful balance between share and the price. We've got the flexibility in the back half for being able to choose that, one area of note, I'd just point out is our conscious decision with Coors Light in Quebec in the second quarter to take the price up to match the 5% beers that's the one market in Canada, where the 4% beers have historically have been priced underneath to the 5% beers. So we sought to address, that was a really specific decision. In other parts of the country, we saw some fairly aggressive pricing and price spending and my team is looking at those tactics for the back half.

Judy Hong

Analyst

Okay. So would you attribute some of the market share losses to the healthy pricing and the more aggressive competition or is it sort of the ongoing challenges that you've been stating?

Mark Hunter

Management

I wouldn't say that the answer that is, yes. There were placing where higher prices have translated into lower ship.

Judy Hong

Analyst

Okay. And then Gavin just two questions for you. One is just on the U.S. and sorry, I missed the Miller Coors calls but I think one of the priorities that we're hearing more from you is just simplifying and streamlining the low premium segment and recognize that you've got a long tail there and I guess, historically some of the challenges that you've padded, just working with your distributors and making sure that you've got a plan in place. So, can you just elaborate on the plan there? And then on the financial side, the free cash flow guidance this year just remind me what’s embedded in terms of the currency impact and any other kind of puts and takes that’s changed since your last guidance?

Gavin Hattersley

Management

Okay. So, Judy, let me take the last one first, from a free cash flow point of view, I'll just remind you that our guidance is $550 million plus or minus 10%. And we haven't been specific about the foreign exchange impact on that underlying free cash flow other than to say that the 70 million I referred to from a profit point of view, the impact from a cash point of view would be even higher than that. And if I can just remind you of some of the impacts beyond FX because obviously foreign exchange is a big part of that, but we did have our strong push on working capital in 2014, which over delivered for us and if you recall some of our larger customers paid early and then we do have a higher capital investment plans, some of the cost savings programs and we have higher cash tax payments, as our cash tax rates gets closer to our underlying tax rates. So that's really the cash flow side. And let me just talk my Molson Coors cap off and put the Miller Coors cap on.

Mark Hunter

Management

Below premium.

Gavin Hattersley

Management

Below premium was the other question. Look I mean we all continue to lose share of industry and shares of segments in our economy brands and we are reviewing our long term strategy for these brands. We know we have the ability to win in the economy segment for example in 2014 and the first half of this year Steel Reserve has been up in mid-single digits, in large part due to the introduction of the Flavored Steel Reserve Alloy Series. So we're going to get sharper from our below premium economy segment point of view, we're going to simplify and I'm not ready to share those details publicly. We do have our full distributor meeting with our distributors coming up and we'll elaborate a little bit more then.

Judy Hong

Analyst

Got it.

Mark Hunter

Management

Judy, the only thing I would add, I mean your specific question was around the relationship with our distributors and below premium brands that job number one is for the team at Miller Coors to really clarify our below premium portfolio strategy and align that with our retailers, our distributors will then benefit from the impact of that clarity. That's a work in progress and Gavin and the team will be taking that to market in the near term.

Judy Hong

Analyst

Got it, okay, thank you.

Operator

Operator

And your next question is from the line of Vivien Azer with Cowen and Company.

Vivien Azer

Analyst

My first question has to do with your price mix realization in Europe. I recognize that there are a lot of moving pieces as some of your previous partnerships unwind, but given the change in your COGS outlook, driven by premium mix shift can you offer a little bit more color on what your price mix or price per hectoliter realization would have looked like on an underlying basis in Europe in the quarter?

Mark Hunter

Management

Vivien, I'll let Simon talk to the detail, just you know from a context point, one of the things I referred to in the script was actually in local currency we saw pricing growth in a per hectoliter basis. The context in Europe as we go from local currency to Euros or from sterling to Euros and then onto dollar, so it can get a little bit complex. Simon, you want to offer just a bit more detail as to how you are reading the mix across countries and across our portfolio?

Simon Cox

Analyst

Yes, thanks Vivien. As Mark said when you talk across 11 countries with a fair degree of movement in some of them and the impact to contract manufacturing and the loss of Modelo is complex but let me try and simplify it for you. I think the first thing to say is that pricing in this quarter overall in Europe was up 0.6%, so the negative was really the mix and again the mix comes back to the loss of the contracts. If you take those impacts away then our net sales revenue per hectoliter was up in 10 out of our 11 markets with the exception being Serbia. So overall, based on the fact that actually we did -- again if you strip out the Modelo brands grow volumes, we were quite pleased that the pricing and volume mix equation with pricing being up 0.6% and net sales revenue per hectoliter being up in 10 of the 11 markets. So overall we think our pricing was pretty solid particularly when combined with our volume performance.

Vivien Azer

Analyst

That's very helpful.

Mark Hunter

Management

And Vivien I would just now refer you back to the fact that we've seen -- certainly our volumes across a majority of our markets and through July continue to move positively. So I think the team are getting the balance right between price and volume virtually across all of our markets.

Vivien Azer

Analyst

Absolutely, no that's great. My second question has to do with Canada and the industry backdrop, you know one of your key competitors reported earnings and actually he had characterized the Canadian market, how the industry is, having had good performance in the quarter which stands in contrast a little bit I think to the way that you guys characterize the market. So can you could offer any more context, is that just a function of relative geographic mix or is there anything underlying kind of the discrepancy in that commentary.

Mark Hunter

Management

Stewart, do you want to pick that up and just give a feedback [ph] of the industry backdrop?

Stewart Glendinning

Analyst

I'm not sure Vivien where you saw the discrepancy, certainly we saw an industry that was healthy, in positive territory. I think from our stand point we had two things going on in our business when you look at the underlying performance. Our pricing was stronger and we certainly weren’t affected by geographic mix, when you look across the country the west was much stronger than the east. And if you looked at Ontario and Quebec and the Atlantic provinces, all of those declined. Those are the provinces in which we are strongest.

Vivien Azer

Analyst

Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from Ian Shackleton with Nomura.

Ian Shackleton

Analyst

Yes, good morning gentlemen. Two questions, firstly in Europe, certainly the volume numbers look pretty good, I just want to know whether you could give out market shares across the major markets, I know it’s a relatively easy comp to the flooding, but you do seem to have done pretty well and perhaps you can give us an idea on shares. On Canada I mean you gave us the figure of minus 8.1 and then say that half of that due to the Miller brand. Is there nothing coming back from the extended Heineken contract yet? Is that something still to come or does that have a reasonable impact, positive impact on this quarter?

Mark Hunter

Management

Hi Ian, I'll ask both Simon and Stewart just to talk to the specifics. I think it's fair to say within Europe that we don't [indiscernible] into the share by country. At also Europe’s level we did lose a little bit, about 0.33%, but than if you reversed out the impact of the loss of the Modelo then actually, it holds a relatively flat year on year. Simon, anything you would add to that?

Simon Cox

Analyst

Not a lot, Mark, because as you say we don't intend to speak to that by country. If you do reverse have that in Modelo volumes and then aggregate it back up, we did actually slightly grow share across the region, which is a setting combination with what we regarded to be pretty decent pricing performance and this is what we're seeing in the market in terms of discounting, then we were pretty happy with our volume performance. So, very slight share gaining, if you reverse out the impact of losing the Modelo contracts.

Mark Hunter

Management

Yes, probably the only other thing I'd add, Ian is that, in a number of markets within economy segment have grown pretty rapidly over the course of the last 12 months. And we are responding to that, but certainly not leaping to that and if we do how many share weakness anywhere it would tend to be in the economy segment, which is obviously lower margin segment. So, we're playing I think a very balanced and responsive game across the markets in Europe. Steward, do you want to talk about it some of the emerging tailwinds in Canada's as you look at the broader portfolio?

Stewart Glendinning

Analyst

Yes, absolutely, I mean, Ian you asked a question about losing the Miller brands and picking up the intensive [ph] brands, certainly we've had a good start with intensive brands but they're much, much smaller than the loss of the intensive brand. So, I don’t know if you want more on that, but that's sort of intensive brands are a fraction of the Miller size.

Ian Shackleton

Analyst

So, just to be clear, these intensive brands can be quite slow, we don't want to see step up in that seeing Q3free going forward. It will be over the next few years, will it?

Stewart Glendinning

Analyst

We think we got some really good brands and of course we know that we can grow them, but we're growing off a very small base

Ian Shackleton

Analyst

Understood. And just quick follow up, just getting premium back for the UK, it's called a big amount, I think, you're paying there, which is quite surprise to me, but when do you actually get that back, is that come in from 2016?

Mark Hunter

Management

Yes and the majority of the deal is that we get the brand back from full on the 28th of December this year. So, effectively yes, for 2016 onwards.

Stewart Glendinning

Analyst

Ian, other thing I'd add is, as you would expect the repay interstation of the startup from a backend to the UK has been running through our PACC model and it makes absolute sense for our business on the basis of utilization of PACC based on existing arrangement and the new arrangement and with that new arrangement will open up to us in terms of the growth profile of the brand

Ian Shackleton

Analyst

I mean, I think, you've mentioned the figure 350,000 hectoliters, which should start [indiscernible], is that split 50:50 at the moment?

Mark Hunter

Management

I don't recall, if we mentioned this, Ina.

Ian Shackleton

Analyst

We know you have the opportunity.

Mark Hunter

Management

Let’s just stick to the 150,000 hec on a full year basis in 2016 and obviously we've got an ambition to more that forward from there, but we open again the detail at this stage.

Ian Shackleton

Analyst

Very good. Thanks a lot.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from this line John Faucher with JP Morgan.

John Faucher

Analyst

Two questions here, the first is can you just give us some rough idea of the magnitude of the incremental investment, just showing us an idea as we look to try to model out the balance of the year and then a second is little bit more sort of Nebulas [ph] from that standpoint potentially, but either seems to be a greater sense of urgency with you guys in terms of looking a lot of the productivity particularly related to Canada and then looking at some of the changes that are going on at Miller Coors, is there something -- do you feel like that's a fair assessment, if there is a greater sense of urgency and if so, what do you think is driving that, because it’s something that investors seem to be picking up on. Thanks.

Mark Hunter

Management

John, let me take your second question first then Gavin can talk on the specifics on incremental investment or rather than lack of specifics increments of investment. On the second point, I've been very clear that when I commented the role that there is no fundamental change in our strategy but I'm very keen for our business to run harder and faster, and I've talked I think very consistently about the need for us to accelerate our brand building capabilities and performance faster and importantly to improve our capability at the frontend of the business. That is now our working trend, we've rolled our whole fuels sales execution model across all of the sales force in the UK and Canada. So that’s hundreds of people are now changing their behaviors, their routines and we're measuring people in a different way, around both effectiveness and efficiency. So, really starting to work harder to unlocking further growth potential in our portfolio as we continue to build that portfolio out and then parallel to that, containing to drive for a new fit for future cost base in the organization. So, I'm very pleased with how the teams have responded and I'm pleased that you're picking up that sense of urgency. It’s not nebulas, it’s important. Gavin do you want to talk about the marketing investments?

Gavin Hattersley

Management

Sure, John thanks. We're not going to give specifics on that, but what I can said is that we are going to be increasing our marketing spend meaningfully in the U.S. and also in Canada and Internationally. We also -- are particularly in the U.S. have some significant business transformation cost in the back half, you know where we have had some go trials [ph] of our new systems and earlier this year and late last year. We've got some really big one coming forward in the back half and obviously that carries a certain level of cost associated with it. But as to giving you specifics, no, we're not going to do that.

John Faucher

Analyst

And should we, should we expect that to be more media related, sponsorships, sort of, all of the above? Any just sort of rough ideas in terms of what buckets it could all go into?

Mark Hunter

Management

John, as I mentioned we do have the Coors Light overall which we're in the process of doing at the moment, which is the new contemporary visual identity across all packaging. We've introduced the national television advertising behind Coors Light's Rocky Mountain heritage. We're going to put -- continue to put firepower behind Miller Lite's heritage program which we're very pleased with. We got the styled bottle from 1975 which is actually just gone into market which we're very excited about. We're going to continue to put money in the Above Premium and the craft portfolio's, Blue Moon White IPO for example, we've got the new Leinenkugel seasonal release that's coming up, Harvest Patch Shandy, we've got Redds. I mean I could on and on and on, John so I guess what I'm saying is it's more, I guess it will be weighted more towards media in the back half, yes.

John Faucher

Analyst

Excellent, thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Mark Swartzberg with Stifel Financial.

Mark Swartzberg

Analyst · Stifel Financial.

My question, really two, one's a follow on to John's and it's simply the incremental spend. Is it something that you had planned in your budget at the start of the year or is this based on things you're seeing here as the year progresses? And then I had an unrelated question.

Gavin Hattersley

Management

Yes, I mean I would say largely in the business it was planned and I would say in the US we probably shaping it up to even a little more than we'd originally planned given some of the activities that we want to do Mark but broadly I would say it was in line.

Mark Hunter

Management

I think that's fair Mark and obviously as we've seen a little bit of benefit comes through on the COGS line and in the U.S. is given us the opportunity to make some choices and we're making the right choice which is to further invest behind our brand portfolio, because we're very clear we want to get the business, really claim to win in the U.S. So we're in a position where we can make those choices and I think that the right choices for the long term health of our broad business.

Mark Swartzberg

Analyst · Stifel Financial.

Got it, okay great. And then with the U.S., JV I may have missed at the very beginning, I missed the opening comments but is there any update on the transition to a permanent CEO there?

Mark Hunter

Management

Let me give you a couple of headlines, so both Allen and I have been working very hard from a recruitment perspective, have made good progress, we're both delighted with the way that Gavin has landed within the business on an interim basis and the way the team have rallied behind him and the changes that he has already implemented in the business, so I'm confident we should be in a position -- certainly in the near term to start to really confirm how we're going to move forward on a permanent basis. So more to follow, but as I'm sure you'd expect I'm not to start getting into people's career developments on a call like this Mark, but making good progress overall.

Mark Swartzberg

Analyst · Stifel Financial.

Okay, great, thank you guys.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from the line of Rob Ottenstein with Evercore.

Rob Ottenstein

Analyst

Great, Gavin, a first question. Given the pretty remarkable success of Constellation, with the Mexican brands, what impact has that had on the pricing environment in the U.S., particularly in the light of the fact that in a lot of states the gap now is very low between their brands and the premium brands and there's two possibilities here. One is, it looks in certain states that Constellation is becoming a price leader and they're taking some pretty, an ultra-aggressive price in California so that would be positive, the other way of looking at is, is you know there's been a lot of market share lost to them and that could create more competitive pricing dynamics. So just wondering if first off if you could kind of give us a sense of you know the pricing environment in the US and how things may have changed because of the success they've had.

Gavin Hattersley

Management

Thanks Robert, I mean that's quite a question. So I think maybe just of, there's no question that the Mexican imports are playing in the, in somewhat of the same space, refreshing and insatiable [ph] space that the American light lagers are. The good news is that demonstrates that there's a continued relevance of refreshing and insatiable lager beers for the beer drinkers and with Miller Lite and Coors Light we think we've got two great brands that can grow volume and share and compete with them and particularly given some of the great sales and marketing programs that we've got coming. From a pricing point of view I'm obviously not going to you about what our strategy is, what I can tell is that we worked very hard over the last five weeks to develop a very clear point of view on pricing which has been led by Kevin Doyle and the team and that's a pricing strategy that we're communicating with our distributors. So we had a clear point of view, I'm obviously not going to share it, but just remember we do follow that pricing strategy that is local in nature, it's varies by brand-by-brand and it's varies market-by-markets and more detail in than Robert, I can't give you.

Rob Ottenstein

Analyst

No, I'm not looking for your pricing strategy, I’m more in terms of your assessments of the pricing environment versus cost. And so do you think, I think, we're seeing signs that Constellation is starting to become a price leader in certain markets, here at 3% price increase in California, do you think there is the chance of a perhaps a greater umbrella effect from them, than in prior years?

Mark Hunter

Management

Yes, look Robert, I mean I don't think my answer’s going to be any different other than that we have a clear pricing strategy that we're not going to share publically. That's all about all I’m prepared to say on that particular topic.

Rob Ottenstein

Analyst

Okay. I would, I got it. And maybe an easier question, you talked about a couple of years ago, your move in the economy segment to PET, can you give us, I guess, a sense of where that stands now or are you a 100% national and your general assessment of whether that's been a success or not?

Mark Hunter

Management

We are not a 100% national, no, but we are on track with the plan that we have in place for that rollout and then so far we're pleased with that, Robert.

Rob Ottenstein

Analyst

Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Pablo Zuanic with SIG.

Pablo Zuanic

Analyst · SIG.

Hello, everyone. Look, I have two questions. Can you -- just remind us if you can please in terms of the right of refusal mechanics in the event that you're able to buy the other half of the Miller Coors and you own actually 58%, if you can just go through that. And Gavin question for you, in very basic terms, if we think about [indiscernible] top line versus profit margin expansion, I would argue that [indiscernible] there was a lot of improvement in terms of a broad portfolio on top line momentum relative to the industry, but that margins had not improved much, will there be any difference in terms of way that you're doing things right now because given all the changes you've implemented, but I'd like to get more color whether, there is any noise yet in terms of focusing Modelo margins, I mean the past, and less on top line, thanks. [Multiple speakers]

Gavin Hattersley

Management

I'd take issue with one thing with one thing you said there, Pablo, because under Tom’s leadership, we actually expanded our operating margins almost double since the beginning of the joint ventures. I think we've been pretty successful from that perspective. From a portfolio transformation point of view, I would say, we've made really nice progress under his leadership as well and we're going to continue to focus on transforming our portfolio. We need to take share of the American light lager segments, we need to continue to put premium onto the portfolio and develop the above premium offerings and we're working very hard for that and I think we've made good progress and I'm going to continue to focus on that in a very deliberate focused and bold way.

Pablo Zuanic

Analyst · SIG.

At that point, could there be any changes to the medium term profit margin guidance outlook for Miller Coors and this time also [indiscernible] provide that, but you said something that I would be hearing a new on some point?

Gavin Hattersley

Management

There has been no update to the guidance that was previously given Pablo.

Pablo Zuanic

Analyst · SIG.

Thanks, and second question.

Mark Hunter

Management

I think let me just add to Gavin's comment, I think, we've been very clear about the three priorities areas within the business, a lot of that continues a good work that Tom and the team did. And looks to accelerate that over the course of the life of our long range plan. So, with regard to other question, obviously all of that information is in our filings from late 2007 and mid-2008. As to the opportunity and clearly it’s purely speculative, what's that right for us to secure a bigger share of the joint venture within the U.S., there is a right of first offer and last offer and some other associated rights, but the detail buying that's in all of the public filings, which I'd refer you to rather than get into them on this call. Thanks for your questions.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from the line of Bryan Spillane with Bank of America.

Bryan Spillane

Analyst · Bank of America.

I guess follow up questions, one -- and I might miss this earlier in the call, but just in terms of the your outlook on what the effective foreign exchange will be on pre-tax profits, I think, after the last quarter, we were looking at about 55 million for the year, is that still the right number or is your outlook on the effect from FX changed at all?

Mark Hunter

Management

I think, what I say, Bryan, was that, if you have to plan foreign exchange rates at the end of July to our results for the second half of last year and it would have reduced our underlying pretax savings by more than $43 million and so, if you add on to that, the actual foreign exchange impact in the first half of this year is about $27 million and the impact would be more than $70 million year-over-year.

Bryan Spillane

Analyst · Bank of America.

Okay. So the --.

Mark Hunter

Management

That's probably what I've said last time.

Bryan Spillane

Analyst · Bank of America.

Okay, alright, that helps. Thank you and then I guess the only other question I'd have just been trying to frame how things have progressed through the course of this year versus maybe what you were thinking earlier in the year. Sounds to me like volume in Europe, when you strip out the effect of losing the contracts has actually maybe been a little bit better. And it sounds like maybe volume in Canada has been a little bit worse, and then in the U.S. maybe you've got a little bit better cost-to-goods environment. Is that generally right, am I missing something there in terms of just -- in terms of the smaller pieces, what's been a little better or worse than what you were thinking?

Mark Hunter

Management

I'm not sure I would characterize it like that Bryan, I think we're pleased with our overall performance in Europe and as I mentioned if you reverse out the loss of the Modelo brands our shares increased slightly, and certainly the last couple of months through June and July you heard me mention our July STRs, we're seeing you know relatively strong volume growth so that's encouraging and clearly we're right in the middle of peak selling season at the moment and we're up against the impact of the floods from last year, so there's still quite a volatility in the marketplace, so I don't think we're in a different place to what we assumed. And certainly within Canada, sure it's been very clear that stripping out the loss of the Miller brands, there's couple of areas that have, we will look at fixing as we go through the second half of this year or the volume impact as we’ve adjusted pricing in Quebec on Coors Light and just a couple of trading tactics as well. But strategically, I feel we're exactly where we anticipated being but you know this is always a game of strategy and tactics and a couple of our tactics will adjust as we go through the second half. But I think the critical thing is back to your first question on FX, we're looking at a $70 million FX headwind as we flagged, we've also flagged up $40 million on the contract losses and we've been very clear that with the strength of our pricing that was seen in the first half, it’s given us some options to invest incrementally in the second half to further strengthen our brand portfolio. I mean that's what has happened and will be happening as we go through the second half of the year.

Operator

Operator

And there're no other questions at this time. Gentlemen do you have any closing remarks.

Mark Hunter

Management

I'd just like to thank everybody for the time for joining us on the Molson Coors Q2 earnings call and as I mentioned earlier hopefully we'll see many of you at the Barclays Global Consumer Staples Conference in Boston, on September the 10th. So thank you for your time and interest in our company and look forward to catching up with you in due course. Thanks everybody.

Operator

Operator

Thank you again for joining us today. This does conclude today's web conference. You may now disconnect.