Stewart Glendinning
Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Thanks, Peter, and hello, everyone. I'll start with the first quarter financial highlights. Worldwide beer volume for Molson Coors declined 3.8% from a year ago, driven by industry weakness in the U.S. and U.K., as well as our pricing strategy in the U.K. On the bottom line underlying after tax income of $69.7 million or $0.37 per diluted share, decreased 29.5% from a year ago due to lower volume, higher marketing, general and administrative expense and a higher effective tax rate this year. It is important to note that our first quarter underlying earnings excludes some non-core gains, losses and expenses primarily related to a sale of real estate, changes in the value of our fastest cash-settled total-return swap in MillerCoors integration costs, as well as net special charges of $2.6 million. The adjustments to our U.S. GAAP results are described in detail in the earnings release we distributed this morning. Also, unless otherwise indicated, all financial results we share with you today will be in U.S. dollars. And results comparisons will be versus the comparable prior-year period. In segment performance highlights starting with Canada. Underlying pretax income and local currency decreased 14% in the first quarter. Strong volume in operations, cost reductions in the quarter were more than offset by cycling lower levels of price discounting a year ago, along with higher commercial and overhead costs this year. Our prior-year results included overhead cost reductions, favorable impacts from consolidating the beer stores in Ontario and equity income from our interest in the Montréal Canadiens hockey club. These prior-year impacts which did not reoccur this year accounted for more than 70% of the decline in first quarter Canada local currency income. In U.S. dollars, Canada underlying earnings decreased 3.3% to $56.2 million in the first quarter, which reflects the $9 million benefit of a 21% year-over-year increase in the Canadian dollar versus the U.S. dollar. So let's review some highlights. Our Canada sales to retail or STRs for the calendar quarter ended March 31, increased 5%. We estimate that about half of this increase was driven by our successful sponsorship of the Winter Olympic games in February along with an earlier timing of the Easter holiday this year. Strong brand performance also drove our Canada STRs with mid-single-digit growth from Coors Light and Molson Canadian brands along with positive growth for Molson Dry and Rickard's, partially offset by a decline in Molson Export in our nonstrategic brands. We are off to a solid start in the revitalization of Molson Canadian by leveraging our sponsorship during the Olympics, launching new ad creative and packaging, continuing to drive distribution of Molson Canadian, of Canadian 67, and ensuring competitive pricing in our regional markets. During the first quarter, we also launched Molson M into the Atlantic region, Keystone into the West and Ontario regions, and Rickard’s Dark across the rest of Canada. These brand initiatives along with the addition of Granville Island volume and incremental sales from the Vancouver Winter Olympics held in February, helped us to increase our market share a 0.5 a point versus a year ago. Total Canadian beer industry sales to retail increased an estimated 3.8% in the calendar first quarter, driven in part by the Winter Olympics and Easter holiday timing. Our Canada sales volume at 1.8 million hectoliters in the first quarter, up 3.3%. Net sales per hectoliter declined 2.7% in local currency. About 2/3 of this decline was driven by cycling our less-competitive price position in the first half of 2009, which we expect to fully cycle by this summer. During the second quarter last year, we began implementing strategies to make our brands more competitive in Canada, including more competitive pricing for some brands and markets. Balance of the decrease in sales per hectoliter was due to lower export sales to the U.S. Cost of goods sold per hectoliter decreased 4.6% in local currency in the first quarter driven by the net effect of two factors. First, savings from our RFG2 program reduced cost of goods sold per hectoliter by more than three percentage points. And second, lower export volume to the U.S. reduced the cost of goods sold rate by about 1.4 percentage points. Marketing, general and administrative expense in the quarter increased 12.7% in local currency, with a little over 1/3 of the change driven by higher commercial and innovation spending to build brands. The balance of the increase was due to prior-year benefits that included the last two months of consolidating the Ontario beer stores, along with adding Granville Island overhead costs this year. Other income decreased $5.5 million in the first quarter due to foreign currency movements and the lack of the Montréal Canadiens equity income this year. Moving to our U.K. business. In the first quarter, underlying pretax profit of $2.1 million represents a decrease of $1.4 million due to a $7.1 million non-cash increase in defined benefit pension expense. If we excluded the first quarter increase in pension expense, our U.K. underlying pretax income would have more than doubled driven by positive benefits of continuing to leverage our contract brewing arrangements, brand-building efforts and strong pricing. Our first quarter U.K. results include only minimal impact from foreign exchange movements. By looking at first quarter highlights, our U.K.-owned brand volume increased 10.9% due to declining industry volume, partly as a result of poor weather. Volume was also impacted in the first quarter as we worked on concluding contract negotiations with some of our major customers, especially in the off premise channel. Total U.K. beer industry volume declined approximately 5% in the first quarter. Net sales per hectoliter of our owned products increased 21% in local currency with about 13 percentage points driven by higher pricing in all channels as we continued to benefit from our strategy and forego low-margin volume and eight percentage points as a result of positive sales mix, predominately due to growth in Magners Cider and Cobra. Cost of goods sold per hectoliter of our own products increased 22% in local currency driven by five factors: Incremental pension expense represented four percentage points of this increase, 1% was due to input cost inflation; seven percentage points were due to mix, driven by growth in Draught Magners Cider and Cobra and higher employee related costs; seven percentage points of the increase was due to fixed cost deleverage related to lower owned brand volumes; and three percentage points predominantly relating to 2009 performance that we do not expect impact the balance of this year. Marketing, general and administrative expenses in the U.K. increased 10% in local currency with six percentage points due to higher pension expense this year. Balance was due to information systems investments and the cost of adding the Cobra sales force and higher employee-related costs. In our U.S. segment. Underlying pretax income increased 0.4% to $94.6 million in the first quarter driven by MillerCoors results. Looking at total MillerCoors P&L. First quarter underlying net income increased 0.4% to $217.2 million due to favorable U.S. pricing and delivery of cost-savings, which were offset by soft volumes, cost deleverage and commodity price pressures. MillerCoors domestic STRs declined 4% driven by continued weak economic conditions affecting the entire industry. Domestic sales-to-wholesalers declined 3.6% driven primarily by lower retail sales. Total net revenue decreased 0.9% to $1.7 billion. Nonetheless, pricing remained strong in the quarter as domestic net revenue per hectoliter, which excludes contract brewing and company-owned distributor sales increased 2.1%. Cost of goods sold or COGS per hectoliter increased 5.9% driven by increases in commodity costs with significant increases in brewing materials, malt and corn, packaging materials, glass and aluminum and higher fuel costs. COGS per hectoliter continued to be negatively impacted by the absorption of fixed and semi variable costs across lower production volumes. Marketing, general and administrative expense decreased by 9.2% primarily due to synergies. In our International and Corporate segment, the underlying pretax loss for International and Corporate combined was $65.8 million in the first quarter, an increase of $17.4 million driven by three factors. First, higher interest expense due to a year-over-year appreciation of the Canadian dollar versus the U.S. Dollar; second, cost to implement our RSG2 cost reduction initiatives; and third, the timing difference in the company's incentive compensation expense, which is more heavily weighted towards the first quarter this year versus the second quarter in previous years. As a result, first quarter of Corporate net interest expense increased $4.3 million. And Corporate general and administrative expense increased $12.3 million to $33.4 million. It is important to note that a significant portion of the first quarter of Corporate G&A expense increase was due to timing, or infrequent factors. As a result, we expect Corporate G&A to be roughly flat for the balance of this year. Our international team grew sales volume nearly 20% in the first quarter up a small base, driven by sales in China and Europe. Speaking of China, we announced this morning that we have signed an agreement to form a joint venture with Hebei Si'hai Beer Company in China for a total cash investment of approximately $40 million. We will gain a 51% controlling interest in the joint venture, which will be called Molson Coors Si'hai Brewing company. This JV will give us access to a quality regional brewery for the production of Molson Coors brands along with sales of the regionally strong Si'hai brands. We expect this new venture to be accretive in the short term and to grow long-term shareholder value by reducing costs and increasing the growth potential for Coors Light in the world's largest beer market by volume. We plan to close the transaction this summer. Back to first quarter results. MG&A expense for international was $11.6 million in the quarter, an increase of $0.6 million due to brand investments in our priority international markets. Corporate other expense was $7.4 million driven by a $6.9 million non-cash mark-to-market loss related to the total return swap we arranged with respect to Foster's common stock. As a result, as usual, mark-to-market to gains and losses on the Foster swap are excluded from our underlying earnings. Now, highlights of our cost reduction initiatives. We kicked off our RFG2 program in the first quarter with $15 million of cost-savings towards the program's three-year goal of $150 million. In addition to our RFG2 savings, MillerCoors delivered $53 million of incremental cost synergies in the first quarter toward the original $500 million three-year synergy commitment. MillerCoors also delivered $7 million of cost reductions against its new $200 million cost-savings program to be delivered by the end of 2012. We benefit from 42% of the MillerCoors cost savings. Moving beyond, operating business performance. Our first quarter effective tax rate was 16% on a reported basis and 19% on an underlying basis. With a regard to our balance sheet during the first quarter, we reached an agreement with FEMSA to settled some indemnity liabilities related to purchase tax credits in Brazil. Resolution of these liabilities stem from a Brazilian tax amnesty program announced last year for a cash payment of $96 million. This favorable settlement eliminated $284.5 million of maximum potential tax claims, of which $131.2 million of indemnity liabilities were accrued on our balance sheet. The result is a $42.6 million gain related to discontinued operations in the first quarter. With this settlement a reserve of less than $25 million for Brazil indemnities remains on our balance sheet. Total debt at the end of the first quarter was $1.74 billion. And cash, and cash equivalents totaled $657 million, resulting in a net debt of $1.08 billion. The first quarter each year is generally a cash-use quarter because of the seasonality of the beer business. The cash flow for the first quarter of this year reflected a net cash use of $34 million, which was made up of $86 million of operating cash flow, plus $2 million of proceeds from asset sales, minus capital spending of $23 million and $99 million of net cash contributed to MillerCoors. This free cash flow result was an improvement of $46 million primarily due to improved working capital this year, partially offset by an increase in net cash provided to MillerCoors. If we exclude cash uses by MillerCoors to capture synergies and to buy the distribution rights for Miller and other brands in Denver, along with the return of collateral cash related to MillerCoors commodity hedges, our underlying free cash flow for the first quarter total a negative $5 million cash use, a substantial improvement from underlying free cash flow of negative $61 million in cash use a year ago. Note that the Brazil settlement was not paid until the first day of our fiscal second quarter, so this cash use will be included in second quarter results. With regard to our use of free cash flow, in addition to the favorable Brazil settlement, we announced yesterday our third consecutive annual dividend increase, this time a 16.7% increase to an annual dividend rate of $1.12 per share. Looking forward, we continue to expect full-year 2010 MG&A expense in the International Corporate segment of approximately $180 million plus or minus 5%. We now forecast full-year 2010 Corporate interest expense to be approximately $110 million at today's foreign exchange rates. Turning to our effective tax rate. We expect our full-year underlying tax rate for 2010 to be in the range of 18% to 22%, assuming no further changes in tax laws. We continue to expect our normalized long-term tax rate to be in the range of 22% to 26% after this year. Our 2010 capital spending outlook remains approximately $150 million for the full year. As always, this guidance excludes MillerCoors. At this point, I'll turn it back over to Peter for a look ahead to the balance of 2010. Peter?