RongLuo
Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please ask your questions
Thank you, Alex. Just as we know, Q4 is a very difficult time and even coming closer to Q1, like March and April today, still that's no good time for us. I think all of our current business is under high pressure, same as our counterparts in this industry. Let me try to give you more clarity on my Q1 guidance. I think I tried to split into three segments; number one, the Peiyou small class business. I think right after Q4 -- our Q4 in February, we are -- you know, the up rate is totally -- that's surprise to us; so we have very few time to move the students from offline to online. But coming to Q1, we do a much better job than what we did in Q4, so we work in [indiscernible] Q1, the Peiyou small class still will maintain our wide healthy growth in the range of 20% to 30%. And the one-on-one business which is also quite impacted by the uprate of COVID-19; so we also moved them from offline to online by the growth off the one-on-one things they have is less than before, I think Q1 in general, we can only grow maybe high single-digit. And the number three segment is our Xueersi Online school. Xueersi Online school-- actually their growth has been accelerated by this kind of tough situation, because the online became only available offering to the students if they want to continue to study. So Xueersi.com, the online school business, will continue to grow. I think it can grow maybe in triple digit, which can provide us some upsets over there. And so our Q1 guidance today have reflecting all of these key information from our mainstream business, and this guidance does not include anything from acquisition or other activities. I think the reason we give guidance still based on our mainstream business. Number two, I think-- about your question, about the margin, our counterparts, what they experienced in this quarter, our Q1 margin is also under pressure. And let me try to give you a more clarity over there. Number one, in Xueersi Online school business, I think we are continuously offering the free course to K-12 students all over China. And this has started from February and will continue maybe in March and April and even today. So these are free classes to all students. And we believe that's a very important move for an education company. That's something we should do, but, of course, this will cost some money. And, you know, second place, I think we see more and more students moving from offline to online and the numbers of online students has a huge time spike, they also require a certain level of investments from different perspective. Number one, we need to invest more money and more energy on the teaching quality. We need to invest more on our teachers, we need to train our teachers, we need to have enough teacher assistance; and we need to make sure we spend enough time on the teaching qualities to make sure this can satisfy the parents and students. The teaching quality is always the key and the first priority no matter if it's offline business or online business. Secondly, we also need to optimize our online teaching technologies and enrich the products and contents. I think a few years ago, we only had maybe less than 100,000 students so the pressure is much less. But today we have millions of students studying our platform, I think the difficulty and technical challenges will hugely improve. So we have to make investment to make sure the quality of the platform and the interactions of the platform can be a mix; we can't rely on what we invested before, we need to continue to invest in major technologies and platforms can be one of the best in this industry. And in the third case, we also need to invest some money on the selling -- in the promotion and marketing strategy because you know, right before this period, most of my students [indiscernible], they come from Tier one and Tier two cities, but today we're finding more and more students coming from the low Tier geographies, and even from some places they don't know us in before. So we still require a certain level of sales and marketing invested over there to make sure we can capture the market share. And lastly, you know, share stock, the first online school business in Q4 is already a 24% of my total business, but margin, I think in Q1, more or less, we have some chance to make sure that we can run the online sector and almost breakeven, but still compelled to our Xueersi Peiyou business, I think our probability is much less. And even today, we believe Xueersi Online, the most important priority for them is to get more market share, to have more students, to teach more students, and even can offer our paid services or free services to students all over China, so the market share is still a key. In the second place, we also have some challenges coming from Peiyou part. You know, we moved all of Peiyou offline students to online, we still -- we also gave some of the promotions or coupons to the Peiyou offline students when they moved from offline to online. So this will lead to Peiyou ASP will drop a little bit. I think Q4 the product is inferior because we moved them from offline to online, the Peiyou ASP dropped 23%. In Q1 it will be better than Q4, but still the churn of Peiyou ASP is still dropping. And this kind of dropping will lead to the reducing our revenue and will also lead to the pressure to our bottom line. And I also want to talk about our Pre-K business, because when the students are moving from offline to online, especially for Pre-K business for the students aged from three to six, it's very tough. It's really tough. I think they, our Pre-K, they expect more time and then our normal K-12 sectors to persuade the students moving from offline to online, ensure they're making progress. But compared to the other sectors, they're still a little bit behind, which will also create some kind of pressure to the bottom line. This is not only for us, if you're going to see some other companies in this area, they also share the same pain. Lastly, we're also doing the small education and the open platform business while willing to open our platforms and support more public schools and small and medium sized training companies to make sure that we're helping them to move offline to online, and also this will cost us some money. Today we are supporting many more times of the customer today than the number we had right before the virus. So this is also kind of challenge in the cost side to our total P&L. And so, all in all, I think we have some challenges coming from Xueersi Online, can pay us [indiscernible] business, and this -- all of this will lead to some pressures of my bottom-line in Q1. But again, we still believe that's a very good -- that is some necessary costs and natural money we have to spend. And that's also the short-term impact if we put them in one year or maybe three years' time, it will be beneficial from there.