Paul Manning
Analyst · Seaport Global. Please go ahead
Thanks, Steve. Good morning. This morning we released our fourth quarter results. During 2019 we had strong results in natural colors, finished flavors and extracts, and our pharmaceutical business. These results were offset by several market dynamics and by the impact of a number of underperforming businesses that we are in the process of divesting. In 2019 Sensient’s business was impacted by a number of adverse market factors. We saw uncertainty in higher costs tied to raw material availability, tariffs, and trade disputes. We also saw changing consumer trends for cosmetic products, particularly makeup that had an adverse effect on our sales for the second half of 2018 and for all of 2019. Food-related markets were impacted by changing consumer tastes that have challenged many of our larger customers as well as certain product lines in which we participate. We have implemented a number of actions in response to these challenges. I expect a much better year in 2020 as our actions deliver improved results and as we focus on the strengths within our product portfolio. As we enter 2020, I am pleased to report that our raw material costs and availability challenges have been substantially addressed. Raw material inflation and availability were headwinds during 2019 in our food color, cosmetic, natural ingredients and fragrance businesses. With respect to changing consumer trends, you will recall that consumer spending on cosmetic makeup products began to decline in 2018 in most of our geographic locations. Our historical strength in cosmetics has been in cosmetic makeup and as a result of this change in consumer buying, we saw lower sales throughout 2019. Our business began to stabilize in the fourth quarter of 2019 and we have increased our efforts to sell skin and hair care products. We expect our cosmetic business to rebound in 2020. The pace of the rebound will be driven by a resumption in the market demand in the cosmetic makeup category, plus continued growth in hair and skincare products. Additionally, the coronavirus will impact our cosmetic Asia Pacific business and it could present significant headwinds there. The situation continues to evolve. Furthermore, the fixed cost take out actions we implemented in cosmetics throughout 2019 will help us to deliver improved profits as the year progresses and as sales continues to grow. Our sales win rates across the company are high. We are winning new projects across all three groups, however, 2019 was a challenging year owing to a higher than normal level of product churn in the marketplace and declines in several legacy flavor ingredient businesses. Many of our customers have had to adapt to changing competitive dynamics, changing channel and product preferences and oftentimes intense end-consumer price pressure. These dynamics created pricing headwinds and higher the normal attrition rates for many of our businesses. This product churn remains high as our customers continue to pursue evolving end-consumer preferences. You will also recall that some of our flavor ingredients sales were impacted by the decline in demand for yogurt and several prepared food categories. We have reacted to these trends by reducing our fixed cost structure and by focusing on retaining and winning business where our portfolio is strong. We have made strategic decisions to exit certain product lines, including our inks, fragrances and fruit – yogurt fruit prep businesses. I'm confident that by divesting these product lines, we will be able to focus in our key strategic markets, namely food colors, finished flavors and extracts, cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, and natural ingredients. We can maximize our investments and efforts in these markets where we have better scale, better technology, and a much better competitive position. The businesses we are divesting generated approximately $140 million in revenue and approximately $2 million in profit in 2019. Our fourth quarter results included charges almost entirely non-cash related to these divestitures. Going forward, we expect this more focused business to deliver growth in 2020. The outlook for the Color Group remains strong. Food colors, cosmetics and pharmaceuticals will be our key strategic focus areas for the group. For food colors, we expect natural colors growth from continued wins and new product launches and as existing products convert to natural color solutions. In 2019, local currency sales in our natural colors business grew by approximately 4% in the fourth quarter and by approximately 8% for the full year. Sales of our pharmaceutical business grew at high-double digit rates in 2019. We anticipate that our cosmetic business will return to topline growth in 2020, as the cosmetic makeup market continues to normalize and as we continue to emphasize our cosmetic sales efforts in the skin and haircare segments. However, we are monitoring the development of coronavirus and its potential impact to our cosmetic Asia Pacific business. We expect continued wins in each of these Color Group businesses and with an ongoing focus on our fixed cost structure and the divesting of the inks business, I expect improved results for the Color Group in 2020. I expect the first half of the year to generate low-to-mid single digit revenue growth, with mid-single digit revenue growth in the second half of the year. I expect profit to be lower in the first part of the year due to lower production volumes and mix effects with improving profit in the second half of the year. Both revenue and profit excluding the inks business should improve as the year progresses. Turning to the Flavor Group, our finished flavors and extracts business has performed well, delivering approximately 8% local currency sales growth in the fourth quarter of 2019 and approximately 6% for the year, but this performance has been overshadowed by challenges in our flavor ingredient portfolio. We're seeing improving trends in the Flavor Group as we are focused on winning new business and retaining existing business. We have positive growth in our savory product lines in North America and Latin America and we expect our sweet flavors business to rebound in 2020. We continue to focus on our commercial efforts across our portfolio. Our win rate for flavors and extracts continues to accelerate and our attrition in flavor ingredients is finally getting back to a more normal level. I expect you will see our sales improve as 2020 progresses. Divesting our fragrance and fruit prep business will be a real positive. As I said during our last call these product lines requires substantial scale and capital investment. In 2020, I expect the group to grow sales at a low-to-mid single digit rate excluding the divested businesses. With a continued reduction of our fixed costs and improving production volumes our profits should also return to growth as the year progresses. Within our Asia Pacific group, we are beginning to realize benefits from the investments we have made in this group over the last two years. We're seeing new wins in both flavors and natural colors and I expect the group will be up mid-single digits in revenue and profit in 2020. As we refocused our businesses in 2019 and reduced our fixed cost base, we also focused on free cash flow. Overall, our adjusted free cash flow increased by 11% in 2019. We continue to remain focused on improving our working capital, specifically inventory which benefited our cash flow by approximately $25 million in 2019. We expect to maintain a disciplined approach to our capital spending and inventory management in 2020 and continued to grow our free cash flow at a rate in excess of our EBITDA growth. In 2019, we experienced a number of challenging market dynamics that have impacted our results. Despite these market headwinds I'm confident that the actions we are taking, the focus we have on our key strategic markets, and our end customer – and our customer centric discipline will lead to improve results in 2020. Excluding the businesses we are divesting, we expect consolidated revenue to grow at a low- to mid-single digit rate with growth in all three groups and our consolidated adjusted EBITDA grow at a low- to mid-single digit rate. I expect our cosmetic business will return to growth in 2020 based on a normalization of demand and the consumer makeup market. I also expect our natural colors and flavor and extract product lines to continue to achieve favorable growth throughout 2020. We expect sales growth in the first quarter; in all three of our groups we will have some hangover in our profit performance during the first quarter. As a result of the impacts from the inventory reduction in 2019, product mix and cosmetics and the time necessary for our fixed cost takeout actions to realize their full run rate. Based on these impacts, we expect profit in the first quarter to be down on a year-over-year basis in both colors and flavors. Profit will improve after the first quarter. Steve will now provide you with additional details on the fourth quarter results.