Fay West
Analyst · Clarksons. Your line is open
Thanks, Mike. Turning to slide 10. We expect 2020 adjusted EBITDA to be between $235 million and $245 million. Domestic Coke will contribute an incremental $16 million to $20 million in 2020 based on the strong foundation of improved performance efficiency we have built at Indiana Harbor. The improvement in the Domestic Coke operations will be more than offset by a decrease in the logistics business. As Mike just mentioned, we anticipate that the coal market conditions will remain challenged and expect that both coal export volumes through CMT as well as the rate per ton will be lower in 2020. Our coal export customer foresight energy is in the process of negotiating with its creditors and exploring restructuring alternatives. As a result, we anticipate entering into negotiations with foresight to establish a new Logistics contract going forward. This is something we have factored into our 2020 guidance, as it includes our best estimate of export volumes and rates. Lastly, we expect our corporate and other segment to be down slightly due to higher employee-related costs and incremental legacy costs as compared to 2019. Moving on to slide 11. In 2020, we expect our Domestic Coke adjusted EBITDA will be between $243 million and $247 million or $56 to $57 on a per ton basis. The Domestic Coke business has delivered adjusted EBITDA growth over the last few years, which is the result of the successful oven rebuild program at Indiana Harbor. With the completion of the rebuild project in 2019, we expect that Indiana Harbor will operate at nameplate capacity of 1.2 million tons. The anticipated increase in production coupled with improved operating performance will position Indiana Harbor to achieve record annual adjusted EBITDA of approximately $50 million in 2020. Our 2020 projections also include lower yield gains across our Domestic Coke fleet from lower met coal prices. As a reminder, while we do pass-through the cost of coal to our customers, we generate incremental adjusted EBITDA due to better than contract yield performance, the value of which is impacted by coal prices. As compared to 2019, lower met coal prices in 2020 will reduce the anticipated yield gain by $5 million to $7 million. Lastly, we expect 2020 coke production to be approximately 4.3 million tons, which is approximately 130,000 tons higher than 2019. Moving on to slide 12. 2020 logistics adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $17 million and $20 million, a significant decrease versus 2019 and 2018, due to the ongoing customer and industry challenges we mentioned. As we discussed during the third quarter, Murray rejected our contract. And while we intend to pursue all of our remedies in bankruptcy court, we do not anticipate any coal export volumes from Murray in 2020. Additionally, based on market conditions and ongoing discussions with Foresight Energy, we are projecting 3.6 million tons of export volumes through CMT. We are also projecting a reduced rate per ton in 2020. These factors have significantly reduced CMT's adjusted EBITDA and we are projecting CMT's adjusted EBITDA to be between $7 million and $9 million in 2020. While the challenges facing our logistics customers and market, are outside of our control. We are not satisfied where we are and are aggressively pursuing initiatives to bring on new customers, additional volumes and new products at CMT. CMT is a state of the art facility which is a low-cost and efficient operator. And has the physical facility footprint, suitable for repositioning. We believe in long-term potential of CMT and are working hard to better utilize the facility. And we look forward to updating you on the progress of these efforts throughout the year. This will take time. And as such, our guidance for 2020 is a realistic and sober view of existing market and customer conditions. At KRT we expect 2020 volumes will be lower than 2019, with lower end market demand for both, met and thermal coal. Moving to the 2020 guidance summary on slide 13, this slide provides a view of 2019 actual performance across many metrics as well as a summary of our 2020 guidance. Once again, we expect adjusted EBITDA to be between $235 million and $245 million. Our coke operations are performing well. And the completion of the Indiana Harbor rebuild project will meaningfully increase adjusted EBITDA by $25 million in 2020. Unfortunately, this is not enough to offset the loss from our logistics volume. Our operating cash flow is anticipated to be between $170 million and $185 million in 2020, consistent with 2019. And with the completion of the Indiana Harbor rebuild project, you can see that our CapEx requirements have decreased significantly. We anticipate that CapEx in 2020 will be between $70 million and $80 million. Additionally, we estimate that our free cash flow will be between $104 million and $114 million in 2020. With that, I'll turn it back to Mike.