John Hester
Analyst · JPMorgan. Your question please
Thanks, Justin. Moving to Slide 19. Probably the biggest top-of-mind issue in the country continues to be the coronavirus pandemic and how it is impacting families and businesses. As an essential services provider, the safety of Southwest gas customers, employees and contractors is our number one concern. Several months ago, we implemented work-from-home policies for both business segments, increased the use of personal protective equipment and are practicing social distancing. We also are mindful of the adverse economic impact being felt by many of our customers and have temporarily suspended late fees and disconnections for nonpayment and are working with customers in need to coordinate access to programs providing utility bill payment support. On Slide 20, we are also working with community leaders and have increased community financial support with additional funding from the Southwest Gas Foundation. We are closely monitoring the financial impact of Southwest Gas operations and see that utility margin under decoupled rate designs remain strong. As previously mentioned, demand by utilities for Centuri's infrastructure services also continues impressively. We will continue to monitor the impact of utility uncollectible expense, although we've generally been pretty successful offering customers deferred billing arrangements, matching customers up with state and local financial support. And also keep in mind that gas utility companies are in the low billing part of the year, where our Arizona and Southern Nevada customers are experiencing average monthly bills of around $20. Turning to Slide 21. Growth continues to be strong. As I mentioned earlier, we realized first-time meter sets of 36,000 over the past 12 months and expect to realize a similar number at the end of 2020. Residential home construction continues to be strong and existing home inventory relatively low. New customers are being added across three different states, each of which provides decoupled rate designs for our customers. On Slide 22, we believe the Desert Southwest will continue to be a desirable place for people and businesses to relocate to. Multiple large business expansion projects are underway or planned for our service territory. Large projects from defense contractors, technology providers, transportation companies and entertainment entities are expected to drive continued prosperous growth in our service territory for years to come. Moving to Slide 23. We feature several quotes from regional experts on growth in our service territory. As previously mentioned, new home construction in the states we serve continues to be astonishingly strong, coronavirus notwithstanding, with new customer growth expected at 36,000 new meters for 2020 by year-end. Turning to Slide 24. Another quantitative perspective on our robust growth environment is demonstrated by new home permits issued in Phoenix, Las Vegas and Tucson for the first six months of this year. Despite the economic challenges presented by coronavirus, new home permits issued this year actually exceed the number issued in last year's prosperous economy. On Slide 25. As is the case for Centuri's utility customers across the country, Southwest Gas continues to invest in its gas distribution system to enhance safety and reliability and serve new growth. This year, we anticipate investing $700 million in capital, with that number totaling $2.1 billion for the three-year period ending in 2022. 50% of these investments are expected to be financed from internal cash flows, with the remaining 50% being funded through a mix of debt and equity issuances. Moving to Slide 26. Additional detail on capital funding is shown with the addition of our payout of dividends, which increases our total funding needs to approximately $2.4 billion over three years. On Slide 27, the need for investments increasing the safety and resiliency of our gas distribution systems ultimately culminates with increases in rate base. We anticipate rate base increasing from $4.1 billion at the end of last year to $6.2 billion by the end of 2024. This increase in rate base represents an 8.6% compounded annual growth rate over the five-year period ending 2024. Moving to Slide 28. Southwest Gas Holdings has a strong liquidity position. Our capital expenditure and working capital needs are supported by strong operating cash flows, a $400 million credit facility and a $50 million commercial paper program. As of June 30, we had zero loans outstanding and full availability of our credit facility and available cash of $190 million. $125 million of our cash reserves will be used to redeem 4.45% notes next month. Turning to Slide 29. We show the history of our dividend growth. Dividends are a very important part of our shareholders' total shareholder return. Earlier this year, our Board of Directors approved increasing our dividend to an annualized $2.28 per share. Our latest dividend increase constitutes a compound annual growth rate in the dividend of 7.1% over the past five years. On Slide 30. As Justin mentioned earlier, sustainability is core to the business strategy of Southwest Gas Holdings. We have committed to achieving a 20% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from our utility fleet and facilities by 2025. We are partnering with fleet operators throughout our service territory to facilitate the increased use of clean burning natural gas and displace use of both gasoline and diesel fuel. And we are working with a variety of businesses, as Justin mentioned, such as dairy farms and wastewater treatment operators in our service territory to help bring increased supplies of renewable natural gas to end use customers. Moving to Slide 31. We believe we have a strong and disciplined business strategy at Southwest Gas Holdings with two separate business segments that have great prospects for continued growth. At our regulated natural gas operations, we expect continued investment of capital and rate base growth, continued growth in customers, continued focus on cost controls and affordable bills for our customers, expanded opportunities for energy efficiency and decarbonization of supplies, constructive results from our many regulatory proceedings and continued growth in earnings and dividends. For our unregulated Centuri infrastructure services group, we will continue to focus on operations execution excellence, cost control and resource optimization, cross-selling of services to combination utility customers, increasing profitability and dividends and providing a source of cash for our regulated operations. Turning to Slide 32. We affirm the earnings guidance range that we provided earlier this year. For 2020, we expect to earn between $3.75 and $4 per share. We will continue to monitor and manage the impacts of COVID-19, which can impact the timing of general rate case results, utility customer growth rates, changes in operations and maintenance expense, capital investment by Centuri's utility customers and incremental costs associated with ensuring the maximum health and safety of our customers and employees. On Slide 33, we provide some further detail on our 2020 expectations of line item guidance for our regulated and unregulated operations. For our regulated utility operations, we expect margin to increase by 3% to 5% due to continued customer growth expectations of 1.6% this year. Operating income should increase by 3% to 5%. Pension costs are expected to increase by $13.6 million due to lower discount rates measured at year-end, partially offset by asset performance. Approximately $5.2 million of the increase is reflected in other expense. We assume normalized COLI returns of $3 million to $5 million. As I mentioned earlier, we continue to have a three-year capital expenditure budget of $2.1 billion, with $700 million of that expected to be invested this year. And to help fund our capital expenditures, we expect to issue between $150 million and $200 million through our ATM program. At our Centuri infrastructure services business segment, we expect revenues to increase by 2% to 7% through organic growth. Operating income is expected to be 5.5% to 6% of revenues. Interest expense should total $10 million to $11 million. And please keep in mind, net income expectations are net of approximately $5 million of non-controlling interests, and the fluctuations in Canadian exchange rates can influence results. On Slide 34, we affirm our longer-term expectations. Equity issuances at the parent should total $500 million to $675 million over the three-year period ending 2022 with a targeted dividend payout ratio of 55% to 64%. At our regulated utility segment, capital expenditures are expected to total $3.5 billion over the five-year period ended 2024 with rate base growth over the same period expected to grow at a rate of 8.6%. And at our Centuri unregulated operations, revenues are expected to grow at an average of 5% to 8% annually through 2020, and Operating income is expected to be 5.5% to 6.5% of revenues over that same period. And then finally, on Slide 35, we believe Southwest Gas Holdings has two solid utility-focused business segments that are well positioned for strong growth for years to come. We believe that for the three-year period ending 2022, regulated operations should contribute 73% of net income, plus or minus 2%, with unregulated operations contributing 27%. Our regulated operations are expected to experience continued strong customer growth, additional rate base and will be focused on continued capital investment to enhance safety and reliability and serve new growth. At Centuri, we believe we have a premium quality, cash flow positive business, where 93% of revenues come from regulated utility customers with whom we have long-term relationships and attractive lower-risk contractual arrangements. With that, I'll return the call to Ken.