Patricio Supervielle
Analyst · Ernesto Gabilondo of Bank of America
Thank you, Anna. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. If you're following the presentation, please turn to Slide 3. We continue to operate in a complex macro environment, which worsened in the quarter with the unexpected reprofiling of the short-term Argentine debt in late August. While our holdings in Argentine government based on U.S. dollar short-term notes accounted for just 3% of our total assets, the sharp swings in market -- in mark-to-market valuation significantly impacted our bottom line. To a lesser extent, results were also impacted by certain commercial loans that became delinquent in the quarter. By contrast, consumer loans reported lower NPL creation in the quarter. The collateralization level of nonperforming commercial more than doubled sequentially. Jorge will discuss this in more detail. Excluding the impact from the debt reprofiling, pretax income would have increased 23% sequentially to ARS 1.9 billion, even when taking into account the higher provisions in the quarter. With liquidity management an important priority for us, particularly in this challenging market, we have been able to maintain liquidity in pesos and U.S. dollars above 50%, even despite some U.S. dollar deposit outflow industry-wide. Moreover, we maintained a solid capital base with Tier 1 capital at 11.8%. Against the macro backdrop, we are strongly focused on maintaining a tight control on expenses, which provides some cushion as we see loan growth slow. And although we are achieving efficiencies, it has been marked by the impact in the debt reprofiling had on our financial results this quarter and, to a lesser extent, by salary increases adjusting for inflation. Our franchise is strong. Although the near and medium-term visibility is not clear as we speak today, we're encouraged that with our long and successful operating history across different economic cycles, we are well positioned for when the economy recovers. Please move on the macro on Slide 4. The month of August and September were characterized by significant macro uncertainty tied to the presidential elections in October, while inflation has -- had begun to recede slightly in June and July, heightened volatility in August gave way to rising inflation by pass-through of currency devaluation. Uncertainty around the election period challenged the government chances of rolling over short-term notes. This led to the current administration decision to reprofile short-term debt, which puts additional pressure on the foreign exchange rate and assets under management. Pressure on U.S. dollar deposit was reflected in the drop in Central Bank reserves and consequently, on U.S. dollar loans. On the monetary front, we have been observing a decline in the issuance of the Leliqs, along with increases in the stocks of bank repos as well as repos with mutual funds. Turning now to Slide 5. Despite all that I just mentioned, the Argentine financial system remains highly capitalized and liquid. Its resiliency was tested with the absorption of a 31% sequential decline in U.S. dollar-denominated private deposits measured in original currency in the quarter. This drop was against the highest level of deposits observed over the past 16 years. In the context of a weak macro environment and high interest rates, total industry loans to the private sector were just 9.5% quarter-on-quarter. This was mainly driven by the translation impact of the FX depreciation on commercial loans, while a pickup in credit card financing was supported by the government initiatives to promote consumer consumption. We delivered slightly lower loan growth this quarter. At the same time, our U.S. dollar-denominated private sector deposits, measured in a regional currency, declined 42% sequentially. This dynamic decelerated somewhat in October, with deposits down 10% in line with the industry. I will now turn the call over to Jorge, who will review our financial performance and outlook. Please, Jorge, go ahead.
Jorge Ramírez: Thank you, Patricio. Good day, everyone. Turning to Slide 6. Total assets declined nearly 4% sequentially as we applied liquidity in U.S. dollars held in the Central Bank, following the outflows in U.S. dollar-denominated deposits. Lower holdings of Central Bank securities also contributed to the decline in total assets. Actually, the share of high-margin 7-day Leliq securities issued by the Center Bank declined to nearly 19% of total assets at quarter end from 24% in the second quarter '19. Please turn to Slide 7. Our loan book was up nearly 7% sequentially, mainly driven by a 17% increase in U.S. dollar-denominated loans reflecting the translation impact from the FX devaluation. In original currency, however, the U.S. dollar-denominated loan book contracted 14% in the period. Argentine peso-denominated loans, in turn, increased 3% quarter-on-quarter, supported by new loans granted to customers who have paid down the U.S. dollar loans. Reflecting these dynamics, corporate loans were up nearly 10% sequentially, with their share over total loans reaching 52%, up from 50% in the prior three quarters. In terms of consumer finance, we further reduced our exposure to this segment, which now accounts for 7% of our total portfolio, down from 12% in first Q '18 when we first tightened credit standards. Our potent approach, together with weak consumer demand and high interest rate, resulted in a contraction of the consumer finance loan book of nearly 4% sequentially and 22% year-on-year. Retail loans were up just over 4% sequentially, explained by higher credit card volumes, driven by 12 and 18 months noninterest-bearing installment plan, partly subsidized by the government to support consumer consumption. Now moving on to funding on Slide 8. We maintained a relatively stable Argentine peso deposit base, while U.S. dollar deposits declined 45% sequentially. Importantly, liquidity remains at solid levels, with an equity ratio in U.S. dollars flat sequentially at 57.5%. The liquidity rates in pesos stood at 50.2%. Our Argentine peso loan-to-deposit ratio was up 3.6 percentage points to 82.2%. The U.S. dollar loan-to-deposit ratio, in turn,increased to 95.9% from 60.9% in the prior quarter as we repaid U.S. dollar deposits when funding U.S. dollar loans to SMEs, with medium-term financing received from bilateral agencies. Combined, this resulted in a blended ratio of 85.8% compared to 72.9% in second Q '19. Finally, other sources of funding and shareholders' equity increased slightly over 8% quarter-on-quarter. As you can see on Slide 9, Argentine peso-denominated corporate and retail deposits increased 32% and 5% sequentially, respectively. By contrast, wholesale Argentine peso deposits declined 11% quarter-on-quarter due to the migration of money market funds, which since mid-September, are allowed to do weaker transactions with the Central Bank at the same rate as banks. Note that, that is in peso senior. Citizen deposits posted, a seasonal 12% sequential decline. Remember, we typically see higher deposits from senior citizens at the end of June and December of each year as they collect half of the 13th salary in each period. Now on to P&L on Slide 10. Net financial income declined nearly 20% sequentially to ARS 5.3 billion. This was mainly impacted by a ARS 2 billion loss, reflecting the mark-to-market accounting on our investment portfolio of short-term Argentine peso and U.S. dollar Argentine government treasury notes. While these borrowings only accounted for approximately 3% of assets, profitability was impacted by the significant drop in fixed income instrument prices in the range of 35% to 45%. Total net interest margin, in turn, declined 470 basis points sequentially to 17.4%, reflecting the debt reprofiling effect. Our personal loan portfolio NIM increased 40 basis points, sequentially, to 24.2% as we continue to experience sustained repricing in those 2 individuals. Excluding the debt reprofiling impact, net financial income would have increased 12%, sequentially, to ARS 7.3 billion and NIM would have been 24.1%. Moving down the P&L on Slide 11. Net service fee income was up 9%, sequentially. This chart continues to perform well, up 13% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting the full repricing on bundled services, credit card divisions, non-financial services and noncredit related insurance products. This was partially offset by higher commissions paid to debit and credit card processors. Income from insurance activities was up nearly 19%, sequentially. Written premiums increased 24%, sequentially, up to mid-single digits last quarter as we continue to drive growth in mortgage and home insurance as well as technology and ATM insurance. We began operations of our insurance broker in U.S. dollars, with the launch of an integral insurance product for entrepreneurs, and this means that it is performing well. We are planning to launch additional insurance products in the coming quarters. Claims paid, however, increased sequentially, reflecting technical adjustments on our seasonal accident rate curve. Please turn to asset quality on Slide 12. Loan loss provisions were up ARS 800 million, reaching ARS 2 million, reflecting certain commercial loans that became delinquent during the quarter coming from public works, contracting and retailers. The public works sector was impacted by the decline in the backlog of public works projects, together with the late or restricted collections. At the same time, depressed consumption in the current recessionary environment impacted the retailing sector. In turn, this bought the corporate loans NPL ratio to 7.2%, up from 3% in the second Q '19. Retail NPLs increased slightly by 10 basis points sequentially to 4%. The 90-day delinquency ratio, however, remained stable at 2.6%, given the large share of payroll and pension customers who continue to perform better with us and with the rest of the system. NPL ratios of our consumer finance business continued to show sustained improvement, with NPLs provision down ARS 190 million. Total NPL ratio was up 180 basis points to 6.9%, while cost of risk rose to 9.6% from 6% in the prior quarter. At quarter end, 55% of our non-performing commercial loans were collateralized compared with 20% at the end of June, thus moving down in collateralization levels. Given these increased levels of collateralization, we closed the quarter with coverage at 86.1%, which we deem to be adequate at this stage. We expect to foreclose and divest those collaterals in upcoming quarters. We continue closely monitoring our asset quality in this more challenging environment. Turning to the next page. As you can see on Slide 13, our consumer finance lending business continues to post improved asset quality since we implemented tighter credit scoring standards early last year together with improvements in the collections process. Consumer finance NPL creation was down for the third consecutive quarter and was well below the peak levels experienced in second Q '18 and in the same quarter last year. Moving on to expenses on Slide 14. We've seen the sequential deterioration in the efficiency ratio, which reached 70%, affected by weaker revenues from the impact of the debt reprofilings. Excluding this effect, the efficiency ratio would have been 53% in the quarter, improving 600 basis points from a comparable efficiency ratio of 59% in second Q '19. Comparable expenses, in turn, were up nearly 4% sequentially, mainly explained by mandatory salary increases in an inflationary environment. We continue maintaining a strict focus on cost controls and efficiency. Moving on to our bottom line on Slide 15. The debt reprofiling had a significant impact on profitability this quarter. Results were also affected by increase in nonperforming commercial loans discussed earlier. Combined, this resulted in a pretax loss of ARS 117 million this quarter compared with a ARS 1.6 million gain in the prior quarter. Excluding the debt reprofiling, we would have delivered a pretax profit of ARS 1.9 billion, a 23% sequential increase. Similarly, adjusted return on equity would have increased to 34.9% from adjusted 34.6% in the second Q '19. Let me also highlight the solid performance of our consumer finance business, which posted the pretax gains. Finally, we reported attributable net income of ARS 301 million, which includes ARS 418 million benefit from recognizing inflation adjustment in the income tax provision, more than offsetting the pretax loss. Please turn to capitalization on Slide 16. We maintained solid capitalization levels in this challenging quarter. Tier 1 capital ratio was 11.8%, basically stable compared to 11.9% in the prior quarter. Capital creation and dividends contributed with a 100 basis point increase in Tier 1. This was slightly offset, mainly by the increase in risk-weighted assets, which includes the impact of the currency devaluation. ARS 645 million remain at the holding company for future capital injections. Our underlying business model is solid, which enables us to navigate this adverse and volatile environment. It is not easy, and I wish to thank all of our employees for the hard work. While it is -- but it's still too soon to have clear visibility what the new government's plans will be, we will continue to run the business with a view towards the long-term. In that respect, we are very well positioned given our long and successful track record. This concludes our prepared remarks. Operator, now please open the call for questions.