Brendan Horgan
Analyst · JPMorgan
Great. Thanks, Mike. Good morning. We will start our operational update on Slide 12. You'll see Sunbelt US delivered another strong quarter with 20% growth. The organic momentum continued, contributing 15% revenue growth while the benefits of our bolt-on activity throughout the year contributed an additional 5%. This growth is a result of our continued execution of our 2021 plan as well as strong market dynamics, as I'll cover on the slides to come. So as we move to Slide 13, this will demonstrate well the demand behind our growth. Utilization continues to be at strong levels, and importantly, it is coupled with a good rate environment. We had difficult comps in each of these measures with four more hurricane activity in last year's Q3, so these results demonstrate further the strength in our end markets. As I said, the rate environment is good. Regardless of hurricane comps, rates on absolute basis are better than a year ago. Further, I should note to that February rates are already nearing 2018 midsummer levels, which indicates a very healthy rate environment as we enter the spring season. Moving to Slide 14. Mix remained a headwind to yield for the quarter with the monthly component of our business increasing to 75%. This duration mix really reflects length of projects in the core nature of rental today rather than the top-up nature of years past. Also worth mentioning is the trend we're recognizing of customers holding on to equipment longer to move to the next job or to the next project. Demand is high, as our backlogs, and we're seeing customers extend rentals as a result. As in previous quarters, whether yield is up or yield is down, it has no impact on margins. The quarter and year-to-date margins remained at the same strong levels as the same period last year while ROI has improved to 24%. Slide 15 shows our continued 2021 plan progress with a nice mix of greenfield and bolt-ons added in the quarter. What stands out is the momentum behind our specialty growth. We've added 42 specialty greenfields in the year and further complemented the specialty business growth with two key bolt-ons in the quarter. Specifically, we acquired Apex, which is a three location pump business, and Underground Safety, an eight location trench shoring business, both of which closed in November. Since quarter-end, the bias was also to the specialty business as we've added Temp-Air, a 13-location climate control business. I'm sure we'll add some color to these more recent bolt-ons in our full year results come June. Slide 16 shows a number of macroeconomic, end market and industry activity forecast. In December, I shared what were broad and positive market indicators. Now, here we are three months later and these views hold true and are further solidified. The spring season, and indeed, 2019 are now in clear view. Industry forecasts are strong, and the latest positive ABI and Dodge Momentum Index only further support this. Our end markets are busy and signaling no change in course. No one market indicator or forecast tells the full story or should you ever react to. However, what we are seeing today is a broad set of data, internal and external, pointing to ongoing positive times ahead. This level of revenue growth demonstrates the broadening end markets we're reaching as a result of our scale, advancement of our market plus our strategy and specialty business evolution, all positioned to give great service to our customers through availability, reliability and ease. Further, I think it's important to note that in unusually foggy winters, like the ones that we've been in, that our performance demonstrates our success penetrating nonconstruction markets. Our addressable market continues to grow as square footage under roof and MRO opportunities continue to compound. Moving on to our Canadian business, which you'll see on Slide 17. We continued our expansion by leveraging our recently built scale, which Michael would have referred to earlier, in a market where we still have comparatively low share. Throughout the year, we've invested in the business with existing location fleet growth, greenfields and bolt-ons with the aim of broadening our fleet mix and geographic service capabilities, all leading to our strong pro forma rental revenue growth of 20%. As is the case with U.S. end markets, we continued to see positive indicators in Canada. Now to the U.K. on Slide 18. Our A-Plant business delivered Q3 results, which were virtually identical in revenues and profits as the same quarter a year ago. Considering the market conditions, our watch-closely approach while being focused on operational performance and customer service, I think, is a prudent one. Our A-Plant leadership team is engaged and plotting the course ahead, taking the market realities in full account as you would expect. Turning now to CapEx on Slide 19. Our guidance for the current year is unchanged from what we gave in December. I would anticipate we will end the year at the higher end of the range, reflecting another three months of on-the-ground market strength and further supported by the earlier-mentioned reaffirmed market forecast. Our early outlook for fiscal '20 is largely more the same, particularly in Sunbelt US. You'll see an increase in replacement as we enter a larger replacement year, reflecting our investment in 2012, '13 and similar levels of growth CapEx as market demands remain high. This projected level of CapEx, together with our current year fleet growth, would anticipate rental revenue and profit growth in the low teens. Moving now to capital allocation on Slide 20. The order of our priorities are unchanged. You'll see we've invested £1,290,000,000 in existing location fleet and greenfield openings and a further £491 million on bolt-ons. As we expected, this has been an active bolt-on year as there were a number of deals in the pipeline as we entered the year. We've also completed £550 million of our original buyback program, which we expect will be £675 million by the time of our full year results in June. And as previously announced, we expect to spend no less than £500 million in buybacks next fiscal year. In summary, it's been another good quarter of revenue and profit growth with every component of our 2021 plan executing in full stride. Our margins are strong as is our cash generation, which we will continue to allocate in line with our stated priorities within a leverage range of 1.5 to 2x EBITDA. So based on the guidance we've just given on fleet growth and a reasonable estimate for likely impact of M&A, we anticipate low to mid-teen rental revenue and profit growth for the coming year. When combined with the impact of our ongoing share buybacks, we expect our EPS growth to be in the 15% to 20% range, consistent with our 2021 plans. This is obviously a general heading, and we will review each element of capital allocation as we progress through the year. Therefore, we expect full year results to be in line with expectations, and importantly, the board continues to look to the medium term with confidence. With that, we'll ask the operator to turn the call over to Q&A. Operator?