Geoffrey Drabble
Analyst · Peel Hunt. Please go ahead, Andrew. Your line is now open,
Thanks, Suzanne. So let's start our review of the operational performance on Page 13 by looking at Sunbelt's revenue growth, which, as I said during the highlights, continue to exceed our expectations. What stands out for me is the momentum that has built throughout the year in organic growth, which you can see increased to 18% in the quarter. Bolt-on growth at 5% remains consistently strong, and therefore, all elements of our 2021 strategy continue to deliver as we gain market share. Turning to Page 14. And we continue to benefit from hurricane activity in Q3, and year-to-date, this accounts for $75 million to $85 million of revenue. The benefits will continue to moderate in the fourth quarter with the final contribution might be degree around $100 million. This demonstrates both our responsiveness and the growing impact of our specialty businesses. It's been a particularly strong performance by power generation, which continues to deliver strong revenues in areas such as Puerto Rico. What's also been notable as we move through the year is the general market improvement, and our underlying growth is now around 18% to 19%, not the 15% we reported earlier. Turning to Page 15, and let's look at the impact on yields. We faced some tough weather conditions in December and January, and therefore saw less transactional business. Our monthly mix of business hit a record 73% and was a negative headwind to yields. Despite this, our strong range environments and a good product mix where we have the first repeating season for a while resulted in an encouraging plus 3% yield in quarter 3. There are always headwinds and there's lots of moving parts. But the real summary is that the rates environment remains positive as we head into the important spring season. And this, combined with strong volume, results in a positive outlook on revenue growth. Turning to Page 16, and you can see the impact of all of this on the profitability. Dollar utilization in our same stores and greenfields remain strong at 55%, and drop-through is a very healthy 54%. There is inflationary pressure in today's markets, particularly when you are supporting such strong growth. However, whilst there may be some timing differences, I am confident that the rates environment will allow us to pass on any pressures, and we therefore anticipate that our margin will remain strong as we continue to execute well. Moving to Canada on Page 17 and continued progress on this exciting new markets. Obviously, the headline data is distorted by the acquisition of CRS. However, if you can see, pro forma growth in both Western Canada, our legacy business and Ontario is very strong. It's 16% and 23%, respectively. We recently had an incredible conference in Washington, D.C, where we had together 2,500 colleagues from both the U.S. and Canada. The scale and quality of the newly combined Canadian team, whose meet - whose meeting kicked off the whole event, has reinforced our confidence in the potential for Canada, and we will continue to invest accordingly. Turning over to Page 18. And as Suzanne highlighted, A-Plant had a number of acquisitions in the quarter, and hence, the changes in volume growth and yield relative to the first two quarters. A-Plant continues to see good year-on-year growth, but the outlook in the U.K. is likely to be a slower pace of growth then we have been enjoying. Turning to Page 19. And we continue to support our market share gains with improved fleet investments. You will recall that we increased our capital guidance in December, and we now expect to spend at the upper end or just above this range. These later fleet purchases will position us well for the new financial year and the start of the busy preseason irrespective of whether they land later this year or the early beginning of next. As a preliminary guide, we expect to spend similar level of CapEx again next year. This is based on supporting growth in line with our 2021 plan. As always, however, we will utilize the fact that our spend is in small increments and on relatively short lead times, reflects to the needs of the market as we go through the year. And moving on to Page 20. In addition to our fleet investment, our strong cash generation allowed us to spend £315 million on bolt-on acquisitions and a further £100 million to date on share buybacks. As Suzanne highlighted, this was all achieved while staying well within our leverage guidance, so we continue to grow responsibly. You'll see from the press release that we completed a number of small bolt-ons just after the quarter, and we continue to have a good pipeline and anticipate further transactions in the coming months. As a consequence, we will give further guidance on the buyback program at the year-end when we have a better idea of the scale of these M&A opportunities and the fleet requirement for organic growth. So wrapping it all up, as I said at the beginning, I think the message is a pretty simple one. We're performing well in supported markets. Our strong margins are generating significant cash, and we are allocating this cash in line with our capital allocation priorities. This in turn continues to drive enhanced shareholder value. We've carried on momentum into Q4, so we expect a strong finish to the year despite some currency headwinds. Most significantly, all elements of our 2021 growth strategy continue to perform well, and as a consequence, the Board continues to look to the medium term with confidence. Before we move on to Q&A, I'm sure you'll have seen our release today that Suzanne is stepping down as Finance Director. Of course, everyone on this call will know Suzanne and just how she has contributed during the period of unprecedented growth and success for the Ashtead Group. On a personal level, I'd like to thank her for all of the support over the years. Suzanne, it's been a blast, and we all wish you the very best for the future. We also announced this morning that Michael Pratt, as you all know well, is succeeding Suzanne. Michael has worked alongside us all for many years, and therefore, it will be very much business as usual as we execute on our well-established succession plans. So congratulations, Michael. I wish you all you best in your new role, although you do have a tough act to follow. And with that, Hugh, let's move on to Q&A.