Robert P. Ryder
Analyst · SunTrust
Thanks, Rob. Good morning, everyone. Our comparable basis diluted EPS for Q1 came in at $0.38. At a high level, this result was generally in line with our expectations, and we are reiterating, or in the case of EPS, improving our full year guidance. We're pleased with our marketplace results as our wine, spirits and beer businesses continue to gain share in IRI for the quarter from our brand-building investments, innovation efforts and retail execution. For Q1, sales growth did not translate to higher EBIT due primarily to some timing items. In a few moments, I will highlight some additional timing and comparison impacts for Q2. As a result, we expect this year's profit growth to be generated in the back half of the year. Given those highlights, let's look at Q1 performance in more detail quarter, where my comments will generally focus on comparable basis financial results. As you can see from our news release, wine and spirits net sales on an organic constant currency basis increased 4%, primarily due to higher shipment volume. We saw shipments outpace depletions in the quarter as our U.S. domestic depletion volume growth was a little above 2%. In Q2, we expect this shipment benefit to reverse, and we expect depletion growth to be quite a bit higher than Q1. As a reminder, from time-to-time, we will see fluctuations in growth trends between shipments and depletions on a quarter-over-quarter basis due to various factors like timing of new product introductions and promotional activities. But from an overall standpoint, we continue to expect shipments and depletions to generally align on an annual basis. The acquisition of Mark West provided contribution to our total growth as total net sales for the quarter increased 6%. For the quarter, our consolidated gross margin was 38.3% versus 39.6% for the prior year quarter. This reflect -- this result reflects an increase in COGS, driven primarily by higher grape cost. Wine and spirits segment operating income decreased $5 million to $128 million as sales growth was more than offset by the impact of higher grape and SG&A costs. The increase in SG&A was in line with our expectations and reflects compensation increases and commercial investments in the business. We expect to continue to see higher SG&A as we move through the year from this activity, along with planned marketing investment behind initiatives for some of our key focus brands. Corporate costs increased less than $1 million for the quarter. Equity earnings for Crown totaled $66 million versus $61 million last year. For the quarter, Crown generated net sales of $762 million, an increase of 5%; and operating income of $134 million, an increase of 9%. The net sales and operating increase was primarily driven by volume growth, led by strong double-digit growth of Modelo Especial and the benefit of increased product pricing taken in select U.S. markets last fall. Interest expense for the quarter was $55 million, up 8% versus last year. The increase was primarily due to higher average debt balances. That provides a good spot to discuss our debt position, which saw quite a bit of activity during Q1 related to the financing of the beer transaction. At the end of May, our total debt was just over $5 billion. This represents a $1.8 billion increase from our debt level at the end of fiscal 2013. The increase reflects some of the permanent financing that was executed in May in advance of the completion of the $4.75 billion beer business acquisition that closed on June 7th. This included $500 million of 3.75% senior notes due in 2021, $1 billion of 4.25% senior notes due 2023 and about $221 million drawn from our accounts receivables securitization and other revolving facilities. We funded the remainder of the purchase price with cash, term loans and borrowings under our revolving credit facility, which were not drawn or utilized until after the close of the first quarter. The timing of this financing activity could not have been better. Our improved credit profile, combined with the favorable interest rate environment, helped us put in place an attractive financing package with an all-in interest rate just under 3%. This was better than our original expectations. And as a result, we now expect interest expense for the year to be in the range of $325 million to $335 million versus our original $345 million to $355 million projection. We still do not have full visibility to the timing of the brewery cash flows, and the current interest rate outlook remains quite volatile. Right now, this is our best estimate. We also finished May with $609 million of cash on our balance sheet and a little over $1.5 billion of restricted cash. The higher-than-normal cash balance primarily relates to the building funds and drawing against our AR securitization facility for the beer acquisition activities. The restricted cash relates the senior note issuances I just outlined. After factoring in the cash and restricted cash, our net debt at the end of May was $2.9 billion, and our net debt to comparable basis EBITDA ratio came in at about 3.2x. Our comparable base effective tax rate came in at 36.2% for Q1, and this was essentially even with the prior year Q1 rate. Now let's discuss free cash flow, which we define as net cash provided by operating activities less CapEx. For Q1, we used $19 million of free cash flow, which compares to $77 million of free cash flow generation for Q1 of last year. The decrease was primarily due to funding beer transaction-related costs, higher interest expense payments and the impact of GAAP reporting on equity-based compensation. Our cash flow statement reflects excess cash benefits realized from stock benefit compensation awards as a reduction of cash from operating activities, offset by a benefiting cash from financing activities. So for the quarter, there is no net impact to our cash position, but there is a negative impact on our reported free cash flow. This is not a new reporting requirement, but it is noteworthy this quarter as we have seen a significant number of option exercises, given the substantial appreciation in our stock price over the past year. While the accounting and reporting for this area is very technical, the tax benefit associated with this activity ultimately reduces the income taxes paid by the company. Now let's move to our full year fiscal 2014 outlook. We're now forecasting comparable basis diluted EPS to be in the range of $2.60 to $2.90 a share. This represents a $0.05 increase versus our previous guidance and is being driven by the lower interest expense projection I outlined earlier. This projection excludes any acquisition accounting impact. We continue to forecast free cash flow in the range of $475 million to $575 million. For our wine and spirits business, we continue to target organic revenue growth in the mid-single-digit range and low to mid-single digit operating income growth. For the beer business, Crown continues to target depletions and net sales growth in the low to mid-single-digit range. Operating income for Crown before any benefits from beer manufacturing and brand right profits is expected to be in the mid-single-digit range. We do not have any updates to our previous discussions related to the fiscal '14 incremental benefits that we are targeting from the beer manufacturing and brand rights profit stream. Our guidance also continues to assume a tax rate of 37% and weighted average diluted shares outstanding of 199 million. I would like to note that from a gaining perspective, we expect fiscal 2014 Q2 EBIT performance for wine and spirits to come in below Q2 of fiscal 2013. As mentioned earlier, we saw shipments in Q1 outpace depletions, and we expect this shipment benefit to reverse in Q2. We also expect a portion of our planned incremental marketing investments for some of our key Focus Brands to occur in Q2. From a Crown perspective, this is before any brewery or brand owner benefits, we expect operating growth in Q2 to be flattish versus Q2 last year. We are overlapping Q2 fiscal 2013 income from an early termination payment related to the St. Pauli Girl distribution agreement. We also expect an increase in marketing expense in Q2 as marketing spend that historically occurred in the back half of the year is shifted into Q2 to further support the key summer selling season. Our comparable basis guidance excludes restructuring charges and unusual items, which are detailed on the last page of the release. The onetime costs associated with the beer transaction are expected to approximate $80 million in fiscal 2014. This includes approximately $50 million, primarily related to professional services and transition costs associated with the transaction, and $30 million of costs for financing-related fees. I would like to emphasize that the onetime costs and tax rate projections factored into the guidance I just highlighted are based on preliminary estimates. As noted earlier, our guidance excludes any acquisition accounting impact. While the purchase price allocation and acquisition accounting activities are underway, I would like to note that the disclosures related to this area in our upcoming 10-Q filing will be preliminary and subject to finalization. The initial purchase price for the beer transaction is $4.75 billion. This includes $1.85 billion for the remaining interest in Crown and $2.9 billion for the brewery and perpetual brand rights. As previously discussed, we estimate there will be a post-closing adjustment payment of approximately $560 million related to the brewery EBITDA calculation. This payment is expected to occur about 12 months after close. The purchase price allocation is expected to result in a significant increase in goodwill recorded on our balance sheet. This includes a significant noncash gain from the revaluation of our original 50% ownership interest in Crown to reflect the newly established fair market value. This gain is essentially nontaxable. And as a result, we expect this accounting requirement to result in a very low reported effective tax rate for the year. Before we take your questions, I would like to reiterate a few key highlights as it relates to the completion of the beer transaction. This is truly transformational for us as it diversifies our consumer base, essentially doubles annual sales and significantly enhances operating profits and operating margins. The brewery expansion activities over the next 3 years should position us for additional beer margin enhancement opportunities. Although our leverage will move above 5x range when factoring in a full year of acquisition earnings, we expect to focus on debt paydown to delever at a good pace, and we expect to be below 4x in approximately 2 years. As we delever and complete the brewery expansion, we expect to see a dramatic increase in our free cash flow generation. This should provide us with significant financial and capital allocation flexibility. With that, we're happy to take your questions.