Earnings Labs

Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ)

Q1 2011 Earnings Call· Thu, Jul 1, 2010

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

At this time I would like to welcome everyone to the Constellation Brands first quarter 2011 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the call over to Patty Yahn-Urlaub, Vice President, Investor Relations.

Patty Yahn-Urlaub

President

Good morning everyone and welcome to Constellation's first quarter fiscal 2011 conference call. I am here this morning with Rob Sands, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Bob Ryder, our Chief Financial Officer. This call complements our news release which has also been furnished to the SEC. During the call, we may discuss financial information on a GAAP comparable organic and constant currency basis. However, discussions will generally focus on comparable basis financial results. Reconciliations between the most directly comparable GAAP measure, and these and other non-GAAP financial measures are included in the news release or otherwise available on the company's website at www.cbrands.com under the Investor section. Please also be aware that we may make forward-looking statements during this call. Although statements represent our best estimates and expectations, actual results could differ materially from our estimates and expectations. For a detailed list of risk factors that may impact the company's estimates, please refer to the news release and Constellation's SEC filings. And now I'd like to turn the call over to Rob.

Rob Sands

President

Thanks, Patty, and good morning everyone and welcome to our discussion on Constellation's first quarter sales and earnings results. We're off to a good start for the year, with results that were generally in line with our expectations. I believe the highlight of the first quarter relates to the fact that we are beginning to realize the benefits from our consolidation of our U.S. distribution network in key markets and the implementation of our new go-to market strategy. Remember, it was during last year's first quarter that we began to scale back promotional activities for our U.S. wine and spirits business in advance of the initiation of our U.S. distributor consolidation program and sales force restructuring efforts. And we did not increase promotions to more normalized levels until the end of last year's third quarter, in advance of our holiday selling season. Nonetheless, in the market, promotional activity has remained strong throughout this period, especially in the premium plus category. Now having completed the most significant phase of our U.S. distributor transition, during this year's first quarter, we increased promotional activities and brand investments, launched new products, and began to improve our in-store execution at retail. Some examples of these activities include, continuation of what we call the biggest holiday ever promotion during Easter, new product launches including the introduction of blufeld German Riesling, Arbor Mist, White Pear Pinot Grigio, Black Box Malbec and Woodbridge sparkling wines, brand investment in Spectrum, relaunch of Ravenswood No More Wimpy Wines campaign using digital media. Collectively these efforts drove improved marketplace depletion growth in the mid-single digit range for our U.S. wine business. And as I mentioned last quarter, we are refocusing our energies towards improving depletions and consumer takeaway, and we made measurable progress toward this goal. We expect to grow our…

Bob Ryder

CFO

Given the continuing challenging economic and competitive market conditions, I'm pleased with our Q1 results which were generally in line with our expectations. Our comparable basis diluted EPS for the quarter came in at $0.38 a share versus $0.33 last year. Comparable EBIT came in below prior year, as expected. However, we saw some encouraging trends in the quarter. We remain focused on leveraging our new U.S. business structure, streamlined portfolio and consolidated U.S. distributor network. These efforts are progressing as our U.S. distributor initiative gained traction in the marketplace. This, combined with the increased brand investments and promotional activities outlined by Rob has improved shipment volumes, performance at retail, and attrition trends for our U.S. wine business during the first quarter. However, a higher promotional activity impacted net sales, as promotions are reported as a reduction in the net sales line. This reduced North American wine sales and our operating margin. The promotion spend increase was due in part to timing. In fiscal 2010, promotion spending was lighter in Q1 and Q2 as we shifted more promotion dollars to the second half of fiscal '10 as part of our US distributor consolidation effort. In Q1 fiscal '11, we increased spending to more normal levels due to our Easter holiday volume improvement program. Also, as Rob mentioned, wine industry promotion spending has increased in the premium and above price category, and we are staying competitive with an eye on the bottom-line. Year-over-year promotion spending comparisons should improve in the second half of fiscal '11. The quarter also saw some positive timing related to our comparable basis effective tax rate which should reverse in the balance of the year as our effective tax rate came in at 24% versus our targeted full year rate of 35%. Before we look at our…

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Vivien Azer of Citigroup.

Vivien Azer - Citigroup

Analyst · Citigroup

My first question has to do with the U.S. wine category. I don't think I heard you guys say it, but can you talk about what your outlook is? Is it still kind of flat to plus one? And secondly, can you talk about the category trends in first [ph] quarter? Would you see things improve kind of month to month, both in terms of top-line but also in terms of the level of promotional spending for you guys and the category?

Bob Ryder

CFO

In general our estimates have been that the total category in the U.S. should be up very low single digits for the entire year in perhaps the 1% to 2% range. And in general, that's a result of the fact that although we continue to see pretty strong growth in the IRI segment which represents about 30% of the business, the on premise continues to be negatively impacted by the economic downturn, and therefore when we look at the category on an overall basis, we expect it to be as I said up low single digits.

Vivien Azer - Citigroup

Analyst · Citigroup

And then in terms of the trends intra-quarter has started to look better, kind of the same?

Rob Sands

President

You're asking about the trends in the first quarter?

Vivien Azer - Citigroup

Analyst · Citigroup

Yeah, kind of on a month-to-month basis.

Rob Sands

President

For the industry?

Vivien Azer - Citigroup

Analyst · Citigroup

And for you guys.

Rob Sands

President

I would say that for the industry for the first quarter, the trends are probably better than what we believe will be the case for the total year, as best as we could determine it. There is not very perfect data for that up about 3% for the quarter. And our trends are strong; we've taken share in the first quarter in the premium plus category, which is what we really concentrate on, because the bulk of our portfolio we've taken about 1% share, 100 basis points and then overall about 0.5% share. So, I don't want to over hype things, but the first quarter was pretty good in terms of our organic growth strategy, doesn't necessarily make a trend. But as I said we've taken share and outperformed the industry as a general proposition.

Bob Ryder

CFO

Yes, the other thing I'd add to what Rob said is in the one category in total you do see premiumisation coming back in in that wine, so above $5 are growing faster than wine below $5. You also see increased promotion spending in wines above $5 and especially in the price point to which Bob referred, like the $8 to $11. So we're having to be competitive in that area. But we kind of look at this as good news in that the consumer is coming back to premiumisation. However, they are demanding more of the discount than they maybe have in the past. But the wine category, as Rob said, especially if you look at all of beverage alcohol, wine is doing quite well. So, we're I guess cautiously optimistic. However, we are keeping our eye on category and then our own promotion spending.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Tim Ramey of D.A. Davidson.

Tim Ramey - D.A. Davidson

Analyst · D.A. Davidson

Just a little follow-up on domestic wine, and by the way the reinstatements are really helpful, thanks much for putting that up. But curious how you would index your own portfolio with that $8 and above or $6 and above or wherever you want to break it? How much of your sales would fall into that category now? I know most, but there are still a few, Arbor Mist and others that…

Rob Sands

President

The vast majority of our business is in what we would call the premium plus category, which is above $5. And in terms of the category where we have the largest market share, it would be the super-premium category where we have approximately a 30% market share, and then also premium we have more like a 20 some odd percent and then above that about a 20%. So, in terms of how we index versus wine in general, we are skewed significantly towards premium plus and even really super-premium plus than the general industry because we do not have the percentage that the industry has in the $5.00 and below segment, which still represents a pretty significant piece of the wine industry in general. So to the extent that the premium plus and superior-premium categories and above are growing faster than the industry, we are growing faster than the industry as well, not only due to our individual brand performance, but mix as well. Now all that said, as Bob pointed out, although some of these categories like super-premium above eight are now growing in the double digit range and definitely we're back to trading up in premiumisation. All that has to be qualified by the fact that some of this is being driven by some fairly high promotional activity and promotional levels in the marketplace, which is not necessarily a bad thing, because it's stimulating the whole category. Wine is taking share from everything; beer and spirits and is pretty robust. Does that answer your question, Tim?

Tim Ramey - D.A. Davidson

Analyst · D.A. Davidson

Yes, Rob, just one follow on if I could? The news that we've heard out of the restaurant sector is probably more bullish than what we're hearing out of you on premise. And yet, do you have some brands that really, like a Clos du Bois where there is significant presence there. What's going on with your chemistry here?

Robert Sands

Analyst · D.A. Davidson

Yes, we think that for the first quarter, the on premise was probably down a couple of percent and our business in the on premise was down just about the same, whereas for the 12 months, the on premise was down probably close to 10%, but we fared considerably better than that. So, over the 12 month period we gained share in the on premise although we were down probably in the mid single digit range for the 12 months. I think we're seeing the on premise begin to flatten out is the answer to how that category or that segment is performing. So, I don't know if that's either more negative than what you believe or not, but if you ask me, I'd say throughout the year we'll see it go from negative to flat. And then hopefully we'll see it upticking sometime before the end of calendar year 2010.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Reza Vahabzadeh of Barclays Capital.

Reza Vahabzadeh - Barclays Capital

Analyst · Barclays Capital

You talked about the promotional spending. I'm just wondering, will overall promotional and marketing spending for the whole fiscal year be comparable with the prior year or are we going to track materially higher?

Bob Ryder

CFO

So, I think you'll see our delta the prior year greater than the first half of this year and then it will smooth out in the back half. So, I think the full year promotion spending will be higher than last year, but not by a big number. But most of the increase will happen in the first half of the year.

Reza Vahabzadeh - Barclays Capital

Analyst · Barclays Capital

Okay. And as far as the returns on the higher promotional spending in beer or wine, how do you think about that? Are you getting out quick returns or was I getting deluded by the fact that everyone is promotion as well.

Bob Ryder

CFO

Yes, it's a combination of everything, so I'd say on some brands we are getting out quick returns; on others we would probably be happier with higher returns. But we're in a constant balance, maintaining our presence in the market and keeping our eye on market share and making sure that the promotion spending that we do is efficient and that we're getting a positive bottom line. But I think in general, we are having to respond with what's going on in the marketplace and we're all pleased with the turnaround in our top line, because in both wine and spirits, we saw positive depletions in the quarter, which we're taking as a pretty good trend. But we're making sure that the finance and sales guys are kind of holding hands throughout all this promotion spending period to make sure that we're being as efficient as possible.

Reza Vahabzadeh - Barclays Capital

Analyst · Barclays Capital

Got it, and then as far as the use of free cash flow, obviously this year a portion of that will go to share repurchases and so de-leveraging will be probably modest. But what about for FY2012 and I know it's early days, but do you anticipate focusing more de-leveraging or being more focused on share buybacks or acquisitions.

Bob Ryder

CFO

Yes, we really haven't started talking about FY2012 to the outside world yet. So, we're thinking about it as you speak, but we're not really talking about FY12.

Reza Vahabzadeh - Barclays Capital

Analyst · Barclays Capital

Got it.

Bob Ryder

CFO

We want to keep our leverage ratio in the three times to four times range. And we did say that we got above that in the first quarter, because we thought it was an opportune time to buy our stock, given the low cost of our revolver, given where the stock price was from an EBITDA ratio and a PE ratio, given the option [ph] that we could gain. So, we'll be looking at those same kind of things next year.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Lauren Torres at HSBC.

Lauren Torres - HSBC

Analyst · HSBC

First actually wanted to touch upon guidance; you raised comparable guidance, but reported guidance did come down. I'm not sure, Bob if you touched upon that, why that was so and what that reduction was coming from? Also to last quarter, you gave us some guidelines with respect to sales, profit, Crown Imports, guidance, CapEx guidance. Wondering if there's any changes there also?

Bob Ryder

CFO

Sure. So the comparable guidance is moving up a dime a share versus our previous range. That's exclusively driven by the our estimate of what accretion will be on the buyback. And the reported guidance, there is a delta there from comparable all due to the charges, the non-comparable charges we took in the first quarter. And the big piece of that was a charge to eliminate a deferred tax asset in the U.K. And because we are kind of stressed on profitability in the U.K., it's just a probability of ever getting any value out of that asset. And with all the restructuring charges we've taken, we’ve also shown positive GAAP earnings for the past three years. Okay? The accountants get agitated and they tend to say that we won't be able to utilize that deferred tax asset. So, we took that charge in the first quarter, so that's the biggest piece. Regarding the other guidance factors, we really haven't changed anything. And again, you guys do this all the time, but it's the first quarter, so, a trend does not a quarter make, so we are waiting to see how the balance of the year, and of course, beer is a summer season, so the second quarter is very important for us. And in wine it's mostly a third quarter business because of the high level of Christmas sales. But I think we're pretty much on plan where we thought we would be in the first quarter, which is a good place to be.

Lauren Torres - HSBC

Analyst · HSBC

And net debt EBITDA call of three to four times, have you started working it down from that 4.4 that you are now, we shouldn't expect to see that in fiscal '11 when you say next year? Okay.

Bob Ryder

CFO

Yes, we wouldn't expect that. Again, that was a full year number so we would expect to get back down to that range for the full year.

Lauren Torres - HSBC

Analyst · HSBC

Okay. And if I could just lastly ask also a follow-up on the promotional activity, it seems that you're responding to some of your competitor's action. I'm just curious as you think about the market environment, are you just kind of chasing what your competitors are doing or in order to kind of get people into the category in the softer environment, that's what you feel you need to do? And that's something that may continue for the next couple of quarters or have to continue for the next couple of quarters?

Bob Ryder

CFO

Well, the good news is here with our new business model in the US and we'll be talking more about this in future quarters, we're really focusing our promotion spending and our marketing spending around our top 15 brands, which comprises about 75% of our EBIT. And that makes it easier to track and that's why we have higher brand equity. So generally, you get better results with that brand spending. So as you know, the wine category is pretty fractious, so we're not going to chase share just because a lot of people are spending money. We have our eye on our key competitors and frankly as we look at the market I don't think there's anything irrational going on. So balance, we're not going to stick our head in this sand and ignore market share, it is important, but we're very much focused on the bottom-line and trying to improve our profit margins and generate cash flow. We're not going to spend a lot of promotion money that doesn't have a good chance of paying off.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Lindsay Drucker-Mann of Goldman Sachs.

Lindsay Drucker-Mann - Goldman Sachs

Analyst · Goldman Sachs

I was just wondering if you could elaborate a bit on the distributor push that you got in the quarter following fourth quarter. Not shipping any product in exchange for a bit more focus from them in the first quarter. So, can you talk a little bit about what -- if that paid dividends and what are that something that would help you as you progress through the year?

Rob Sands

President

Sure, so what you are referring to is the fact that when we reduced distributor inventories in the fourth quarter last year, there was an agreement with our distributors to put more resources behind the brand this year and I think the simple answer to your question is yes they’ve put more resources behind the brands and I think that you're seeing the impact of that certainly in the IRI data and in the general proposition in our depletions, which have strengthened quite considerably. So, definitely having a positive impact on our business and on our organic growth.

Lindsay Drucker-Mann - Goldman Sachs

Analyst · Goldman Sachs

Okay. So, I guess just sort of wondering one moment see you guys start to at least maintain dollar share of the wine category especially now with a bit more trade up taking place to higher end, even though your share count did improve the measured channel data that we saw, still loosing against the broader market. So, maybe just think about when you actually see those results really pan out in terms of holding dollar share?

Rob Sands

President

Yes, we have gained share; definitively in the four week period and against the broad market we haven't gained share in the 12 week period on a dollar basis, but we have on a volume basis and you'll actually see that start turning around now. So, basically we're gaining share as a general proposition against the market. Now interestingly enough, that’s with respect to our total portfolio. Now as I mentioned in my script, our top 15 brands represent the vast majority of our profitability and those are where we really focus and those brands, which is really what matters, have in fact gained share in dollar and volume in every period against the broad market, meaning the 12 and the 4 week period, and those brands represent over 75% of our profitability in the United States. So I would say in general, we're fairly pleased with our organic growth and I would say certainly in the first quarter from a growth perspective we're significantly on the portion of the portfolio that really matters. We've significantly outperformed the market and our competitors.

Lindsay Drucker-Mann - Goldman Sachs

Analyst · Goldman Sachs

Okay. And then the degree of profit erosion that we saw in the period in your North American business, it seemed to be of the step-up in promotional spend, the cost and de-leverage. How should we think about that in terms of, when you kind of annualize when we're out of run rate of the type of investment you put in a quarter?

Rob Sands

President

Yes, obviously we are sticking to our guidance that we have given for the year. And so that's basically how you should think about it is, we are at the current time believing that we will certainly perform within our guidance range.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the Mark Swartzberg of Stifel Nicolaus.

Mark Swartzberg - Stifel Nicolaus

Analyst · Stifel Nicolaus

I guess a handful of questions here on kind of the costs of improving share, on not only near but longer term. But starting with commentary you made on promotional spending sort of moderating as this fiscal year progresses, what about at the distributor level? I guess the distributors are putting in more for the fiscal year than had originally been indicated, because of how last holiday played out. Should we think that their level of investment behind your brand is roughly kind of on trend with your level of investment behind the brands over the next few quarters?

Rob Sands

President

Well, that's hard to comment on their level versus our level. Our level of investment is significantly higher than our distributors level of investment on a relative basis, but part of the distributor consolidation program was as a general proposition to get more investments behind our business by our distributors throughout the term of the arrangement, which was a five and a half year term. So, they have as was agreed increased their level of investment and that increased level of investment will continue throughout the period of the arrangement, which was a five and a half year deal basically. And yes, that has been contributing to our growth profile. And basically, working as we wanted it to work and it's basically working as we expected it to work. As Bob said, we are going to closely monitor the trade off between promotional spend and volume and sales increases and make sure that we are striking the right balance. I think that as we have made fairly clear, first quarter's promotional spend was on a relative basis higher than we expect for the year. Primarily due to a number of factors, which is in first quarter last year we had disproportionately low promotion because we had pulled back as went into the distributor consolidation activities. That’s impacting the comparison, number one. And then, there is also some timing matters related to the falling of holidays and how and when we have chosen to promote that will make the first quarter promotional rate higher than we anticipate for the whole year. Although, I would say on a total year basis we would generally expect promotional expense to be higher than last year, because in general, we were not promoting in the first three quarters at normalized levels as we implemented the distributor consolidation efforts. So, that's basically what's going on with promotion, there's really nothing particularly strange going on there.

Mark Swartzberg - Stifel Nicolaus

Analyst · Stifel Nicolaus

And of course you're not in a unique situation, it's pretty tough consumer environment. But as we think about the expense of which you moderate the promotion, as you head into the balance of this calendar year, can you share with us kind of some of the metrics you think are most important for you all to be watching; A, from a kind of an external stand point. Some of the consumer metrics you are looking for at in the broader wine business. And then B, some of the metrics you are looking at inside your business, either metrics at the distributor level, maybe amount of space they get or display activity, obviously there is a lot of things to look at, but when you are trying to rank them and say okay, we can really moderate promotions whatever the number is. 10%, 15%, 5%, whatever it is, we can really moderate it and not expect it to adversely affect the completions. What are some of those metrics that you think are key to determining the appropriate amount of actual moderation versus what’s your level of plan moderation right now?

Rob Sands

President

Yes, well moderation as I say, promotion won't be at the same level as it will be in first quarter. So I guess your term moderation is correct, but it's general proposition. We hold promotion at times when we think that we'll get the most out of the promotional activity and we come back when we think that we would otherwise get it. So, it'll fluctuate throughout the year, but the asset won't be at the same rate as first quarter as we sit here now, that's our belief and our intention at the moment. As to the metrics that we're looking at, certainly from the consumer point of view, we are keeping a close eye on consumer takeaway from a volume perspective, and we measure that by looking at things like IRI, like other data that we get. And certainly, depletions are representative of consumer takeaway, sales to retail in that we generally now expect key retailers stacking up, or we don’t see big fluctuations in their inventory levels. Certainly, the mix of our business is a very important measure for us to be looking at, ensuring that we have a healthy mix towards our higher profit items and our higher ROIC items. We've had a big focus on driving return on invested capital. We've taken that down to a certain degree to the brand level, and therefore we're cognizant of mix as it relates both to profitability and ROIC. And then internally, needless to say, operating profit continues to be a very important measure of our success. And that goes to what we said earlier about making sure that we're appropriately calibrating our promotional activities against our volume growth to optimize the profit picture for the company and the ROIC picture. So it's not rocket science really, but those are the things that we're looking at.

Mark Swartzberg - Stifel Nicolaus

Analyst · Stifel Nicolaus

And if I could just add one more here, Rob. We've heard a fair bit over the last nine months or so about the distributor consolidation. If you think about it from a Constellation perspective, obviously you're selling to lot fewer customers today then you were a year ago. What remained in your opinion to be done with the incentive structure of your sales force selling into these distributors? How kind of set is that in your mind? Is that where it needs to be, or do you need to make some important changes there, now that the customer base has changed the way it has? Any thoughts there would be helpful.

Rob Sands

President

We simultaneously reorganized our sales organization as we implemented the distributor consolidation activity, and we actually went through a customer based organization, meaning that our sales organization is now organized around our customers as opposed to just purely geographically. And we have one sales organization as opposed to many sales organizations, et cetera. When we did that we of course adjusted our incentive compensation systems to be aligned with what we were trying to accomplish with our wholesale customers and retail customers. And so the simple answer to your question is, that's all done and now there are no significant changes that need to be made at the current time, which is good because it's all up and running and in place. And I would say it's running pretty well right now, and everything's working well. So we're pretty optimistic. The key task now is to drive it to ultimate success over the mid-term, which I'm fairly optimistic that we will get what we're looking for.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Kevin Dryer of Gabelli & Company. Kevin Dryer - Gabelli & Company: First, just a couple nitpicking questions. One, on your assumed share comp for the full year, does that reflect just the shares that have already been delivered to you, or an estimate of what the final shares are?

Bob Ryder

CFO

It’s more of an estimate Kevin, but it depends on the share price, how many shares you get back and also the number of shares that get delivered [ph]. So this share repurchase program could go through mid-November, which would mean we wouldn't get all that much accretion on the next tranche shares that we received, or it could end in two weeks, we don't know. Well, that's our best guess right now, but your low to high is like a penny, and a penny half of the $0.10 that we gave. So there's not a ton of volatility left. Kevin Dryer - Gabelli & Company: Then can you help me understand a little bit how your tax rate's going to play out by quarter this year, since it'll obviously be higher than the 35% for the remaining three quarters.

Bob Ryder

CFO

Wow! Our phone bill will [ph] get too big for that. So that's a little too detailed. I mean, we don't give quarterly guidance. In the last quarter, the guidance we would give would be tax rate quarterly guidance. So we expect the full year tax rate coming about 35%. There's just some anomalies in Q1 because some tax rate items came to closure in the first quarter, and we’re able to release those tax reserves which is what drove the low tax rate in Q1. To your model, I just assume 35 for the full year. Kevin Dryer - Gabelli & Company: And then I guess finally, it's been quiet regarding the lawsuit with Modelo regarding Crown. Anything new there? And any potential for any resolution or renegotiation in the Crown contract?

Rob Sands

President

No resolution there at the current time. We filed a motion to dismiss, we're waiting for a decision on the motion to dismiss. I’d just remind you that we have said in the past that it's basically a dispute over a financially immaterial item that (inaudible) certainly determine; is thus resolved by the courts. And it really has zero impact on the terms of our agreement, which certainly hasn't changed since we entered into the agreement beginning of 2007. And we remain satisfied as a general rule with what we've negotiated, and it seems to be working well. Both parties, Modelo and ourselves continue to work closely together. And our primary focus, despite this lawsuit, meaning ourselves and Modelo, our primary focus is on driving this business and making sure that we're doing the right thing for the brand and for the consumer. And I think that we're both pleased with some of what we're seeing right now. In particular, both Modelo and ourselves are pleased with the turnaround we're seeing in imports. Imports in general are back into growth, imports are taking share. And I'd say our portfolio is now performing the best in the imports category. So imports are taking share and we're taking share. So, I would say both parties, ourselves and Modelo, are pretty pleased with what's going on in the marketplace. And despite this fact, we're working pretty well together and we'll continue to work well together in the future.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Christine Farkas at Merrill Lynch.

Christine Farkas - Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Merrill Lynch

Just a brief question, may be just looking for a summary answer, you talked about targeting your wine sales growth in North America to reach the industry average, which was mentioned was about 5% in the first quarter, whereas, you guys are running down about 2%. So, is this coming from slowing promos, improvements at your distributors, or are there some other factor that depressed the first quarter relative to the industry?

Rob Sands

President

So, the numbers are in the first quarter, the industry we think grew 3% and we grew 5%, Christine. Does that answer question?

Christine Farkas - Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Merrill Lynch

Okay.

Rob Sands

President

In IRI.

Christine Farkas - Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Merrill Lynch

Okay. So, do you expect then depletions and shipments to run a little bit more closely in line as we get through the end of the year?

Rob Sands

President

Well, maybe I misunderstood your question. We outperformed the industry in the first quarter. Is that what you're asking about?

Christine Farkas - Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Merrill Lynch

I guess I'm looking, given your North American organic wine number or currency neutral number was down 2% unless I misread that?

Rob Sands

President

Okay, you're talking shipments now?

Christine Farkas - Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Merrill Lynch

Right, so I'm trying to understand how far apart those are going to be or if there is some other factor that's keeping the gap so wide. It can't go on forever, because ultimately the depletion will pull your shipment?

Rob Sands

President

Yes, but also remember that it is also related to the comparison of shipments last year and there has been some disconnect okay in that regard. But I'm not going to sit here and say, when shipments and depletion growth should start mirroring each other at some point.

Christine Farkas - Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Merrill Lynch

Okay. And then just briefly on beer, you're quite helpful with your on premise comments in general I think, Roger, reflecting wine. Are you seeing similar improvements on premise for beer or have you seen trends and see stores change at all for your brands? How does that look versus the broader category?

Rob Sands

President

I would say that on premise trends are improving. Similarly, the channels -- not the channels across the category, beer, wine and spirits, so, improving similarly. Our Crown business I think skews a bit higher to on premise than the beer industry in general. So, on the one hand to the extent that the on premise is the most negatively affected trend that negatively affects our business, on the other hand to the extent that that's improving will be disproportionately benefited by the improvement. Does that answer your question? It is improving; I think it is moving toward flat from down double digits last year. I think it will move to up, eventually. We'll take one more question.

Operator

Operator

Your last question comes from Carla Casella of JPMorgan.

Carla Casella - JPMorgan

Analyst · JPMorgan

Have you said at what level you’re basing you forecast, what level of euro you're basing your forecast on?

Rob Sands

President

Are you talking about our earnings forecast?

Carla Casella - JPMorgan

Analyst · JPMorgan

Your guidance.

Rob Sands

President

I'll let Bob answer that.

Bob Ryder

CFO

We haven't come out with specific euro guidance. But in the grand scheme of things it doesn't matter tremendously, because we don't make a ton of money overseas. So, I guess at this point, at the end of last year, due to the potential transaction with AVR [ph] we did not have much of our foreign currency transactional exposure hedged. During the first quarter, we actually layered down a reasonable amount of hedges. So, we don't expect a lot of volatility to our bottom line due to forex changes for fiscal '11. And euro exposure is not one of our biggest, it's not our biggest exposure as a general proposition. The euro exposure really is (inaudible) the dollar.

Carla Casella - JPMorgan

Analyst · JPMorgan

Okay. And then when is end of the transaction period for the $300 million share buyback?

Bob Ryder

CFO

We're doing an accelerated program. So the end of it is really depending on Goldman Sachs who's doing the transaction for us. But the maximum end is around mid November, but they can call it quits whenever they bought $300 million of our stock. Carla Casella – JPMorgan: Okay, great. Okay, thank you.

Rob Sands

President

All right thank to, everyone, for joining our call today. And as I mentioned, I am pleased with our first quarter results, which were in line with our expectations. And I believe we are well positioned to achieve our EPS and free cash flow goals for the year. I am especially pleased that we are beginning to realize a number of benefits from our newest consolidated U.S. distributor network. Our experience improved in depletion trends in our U.S. wine and beer business and our accelerated share repurchase transaction represents our commitment to returning value to our shareholders. Overall, thanks again for your participation. We hope you have the opportunity to enjoy some of our great beer, wine and spirits products during the upcoming Fourth of July holiday.

Operator

Operator

Thank you for participating in today's conference call, you may now disconnect.