Barry Sternlicht
Analyst · Doug Harter with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your questions
Thanks, Jeff. Thanks, Rina. Thanks, Zach, and thank you all for dialing in this morning. This is a strange process and I know you're all enjoying the strange time. It is odd to be doing earnings call from your home and with your colleagues home in their own locations.I'd like to start my comments. First of all, I know you just heard somewhat exhausted detail about the plumbing of the company. From the start, we said we'd be transparent. We try to be consistent, predictable, and we built the company to do that. We built the company with multiple business lines with different credit characteristics that would react differently to different times.And it was really when the tide goes out that you see the strength of the platform. And there you can simply look at the cash on the balance sheet, the property book and some of the other incredibly valuable assets this company owns.I wanted to back up and compare this time because I saw what you all saw, which was the comparison of the 2007, 2008 crisis to today, and the fact that commercial mortgage REITs most of them blew up in 2007, 2008, one of them, which I actually started Starwood Financial that became iStar actually survives, but many of them disappeared.If you go back to that time period, for those of you who weren't analysts or even alive, there was negative leverage, people who were lending at 6%, 7% property yields to 3%, 4% and 5%. You also had an undisciplined lending market.You had typically loans 95%, 80%, 85%, 100%, 105% of LTV. It was a totally different time period and the mortgage REIT was constructed totally differently. I want to make sure that we separate the commercial mortgage REITs, which were primarily a commercial mortgage REITs from the residential mortgage REITs today because they have totally different balance sheets, they look totally different, they have totally different risk profiles.Sadly, they're both included in the same ETFs. And so when money swings in and out of the ETFs and mortgage REITs, all the stocks go up and down. To some extent, I'm beginning to feel like the Rodney Dangerfield of commercial mortgage REITs, we get no respect.Going back to what the world was like before. Today, you should start with our LTV. Our LTV actually fell when the CECL rankings came in. It was the first time you had a third-party appraiser come in and look at our loans.If you go back to our third quarter of last year, it was like 64%, and CECL marked them around 59% and this month they went back to 61%. They're still as low as they've ever been since the company was started in the last 10 years of the company, and that was a third-party mark, and what happened there was the shift as Rina said, to a recession scenario and that created these paper losses in the books, similar to what you saw the commercial banks take. In general though, our marks – I think best-in-class in the industry that’s attributed to the quality of the book we have.So what we did, and I should say one more thing. The banks which lend us money against the 61% marks, well there maybe 70%, 75% in average, they are less than 50% exposure, something like 48%, 45% exposure LTV. So the banks are super safe. So there's no particular need for them to breakdown their loans or call us on any facilities that they could and they really haven't.We've worked with them proactively to restructure our hotel loans, which we’re, obviously going to have interrupted cash flow, and it's been a very good conversation. The banks have been super supportive. We really appreciate their partnership. And they know we're not their issues. So the company remains strong, and one of our quandaries is showing the strength of this company might actually entice the banks to ask for some of our liquidity, which we are not interested in sharing with them and don't need to.So the first thing you do in a situation like this, which is obviously unprecedented. As you run multiple scenarios on what the future of the company might look like, we pushed back all of our repayments. There were a lot of management had estimated early repayment on so many loans, and now we have almost nothing maturing this year in our forecast and we end the year extremely strong.We halted all of our investments per se, although obviously we had to fund some of our future commitments. Our underlying lending partners funded theirs. And after paying down $250 million of debt facilities, mostly on our securities, we still have over $800 million of liquidity in the company.That's not necessarily good news. Cash does not earn anything in this environment, but that is what we're facing. The tug of war between investing is capital and making sure we have liquidity on hand should something I think it will happen or there will be another downturn in the market going forward.It's also extremely exciting to see all the loans performing and the underlying conditions in the property market, in the most of the sectors are okay. The have multifamily market, particularly the exposure this company has to the affordable housing sector is fantastic.Everybody paid, and where you see the unpaid is actually the medical office portfolio, where doctors simply went out of business temporarily, but we think there will be no impairment to the future of those cash flow streams going forward. So you batten down the hatches, we test everything you can today. You run all these scenarios and you look then what you're going to earn, sitting with nearly $1 billion in cash is not in the model we had, and I've never run this company this way.So that creates earning scenario that we have to be careful about. It's not just creating liquidity. We can do that easily with $3 billion of unencumbered assets. The issue is, what are we giving up in the future of the company? And we're here for the long haul. We're not here. We're not built for a quarter to impress you. We're here to produce earnings that are consistent and an excellent risk reward for our shareholders going forward.I want to stress our business lines are incredibly solid. As Jeff said, the infrastructure business had a great quarter. It has almost no – it has no credit markdowns, no rating decreases in the portfolio.Our property portfolio led by our multis is exemplary. It's been the Rock of Gibraltar, earning a 15% return and they cannot go down. The rents cannot go down in the multifamily market. Though, we're going to suspend the rent increases that we're entitled to as we worked through the COVID situation with our tenants.Our conduit business is a solid business, but it's no big deal to the company, it securitizes 11x a year. We have always run around $150 million, $200 million of loan balances. We got a bunch done. We have some of these loans on our books. They're small loans.The CMBS business has been shrunk and it provides us extraordinary insight into the capital markets. We've always been in the business. It comes with the servicer. The servicer business is reversed. We always mentioned this would be a hedge against the downturn, while we have the downturn. And interestingly enough, as Jeff pointed out and Rina, we shifted a bunch of assets over to that side because the servicers now overwhelmed with requests for forbearance, particularly in the hotel space.The Residential Lending business is a very solid business. We've held up one securitization. We hope to get it done later in the year. But holding both the conduit loans and the securitization, the resi loans is actually earnings accretive. We have in place facilities. We can hold these loans. We don't have to rush to market. We don't need the liquidity that we would like to complete these securitizations.And then the large loan lending books speaks for itself. I mean, that's a business that is the core of the company, and it has performed exceedingly well, surprisingly well. So I think now you see a situation with our industry, it’s been split between the haves and the wish they have.The people who can go on offense and those they're trying to protect the limited liquidity they have or, in fact, have to reach out to do dilutive deals. We put up our book value every quarter, including our fair value of our assets because we want you to know we've always been dedicated to not issuing equity below book value, and we're not getting to do that unless we have an extraordinary opportunity to deploy the capital immediately to something that's massively accretive for the company.So our job right now is to figure out what is in fact excess capital and figure out how much of that we want to invest. As Jeff mentioned, we are looking at an opportunity or several opportunities to have an investment committee call, following in this afternoon situation.The opportunity is to put capital out, it spreads wider than we have historically is obviously evident right now. There aren't that many transactions, so there's not a flooded situation, but there are several – because we're in multiple businesses, many of these business lines are finding their compelling opportunities to put out. So we've turned our conduit back on for example. Now we've given them some capital to go ahead and make additional loans, which will entice the yields or improve the portfolio and the eventual securitization of those assets.We're also looking at a few whole loans in our lending book. And we're also quite excited about the residential opportunities given our expertise in the general distress in the area despite, obviously, the situation on forbearance of mortgage payments that is rolling through the country, through home mortgage payments.So I think we're feeling the book is very safe. And I should talk for a second about the dividends. Our dividend policy will follow the philosophy of safety for the company. Can we earn our dividend? Yes. Should we pay it out? We're going to decide as the future unfolds. So we will wait till June to see how the year looks. What's happened to the return of the economy? How our borrowers are fairing?It's going to be a little bit – we don't know, I mean, nobody can really know. Signs are good, and we sent all this cash. So we're going to do the prudent thing, and make sure that obviously as a major shareholder, myself, I would like us to pay the maximum dividend we can, but we are here for the long run and that will be a Board decision.So I want to thank all the people of the company, who are working credibly hard. I mean, you have to batten down the hatches and look through every loan in every corner of the company, doing this remotely has been a fascinating challenge even producing your financials for every company in the country remotely has been fascinating.And I want to also thank our Board because the Board has worked really hard with weekly calls as we gave them updates of the situation, and giving us advice on how to navigate this. It's been exceptional.So with that, I think I'm going to stop. It was a good quarter. I think you will see less earnings from us, but obviously we can produce earnings anytime you want. We harvest the gains in our books and we've always done that. I was really pleased with the hope I almost said their name at this major tenant and tech tenant signed the lease on the warehouse. And again that goes to the strength is just out of the platform because we can also play in the equity side.So this was a loan, we didn't want to take it back on two distribution centers, and one was just signed this week with one of the largest company in the United States, in the world. And should produce $48 million gain, reversing an $8 million reserve we took against the assets. So $50 million swing plus the basis and the asset, you're talking $75 million, $80 million in cash and an asset that really doesn't have anything to do with our core business, but it's now at least to the long-term at very attractive rates.So we think it's exciting for us. We'd love to get back on offense, put everyone back to work, finding great investment opportunities. It's kind of tricky when your stock trade like Rodney Dangerfield, but we're excited and we hope you'll see the power of the platform as we go forward.We'll take questions, operator.