Edward Resch
Analyst · this call is housed on State Street's website
Thank you, Jay. Good morning, everyone. This morning, I'll review three areas. First, the results for the first quarter. Second, the investment portfolio, investment decisions we made in the first quarter, as well, as our outlook for worldwide interest rates and the impact on our net interest margin; and finally, I'll review our strong capital position. First, the results for the first quarter of 2011 compared with the first and fourth quarters of 2010. This morning, all of my comments will be based on our operating basis results as defined in today's earnings news release. First, the general overview of the first quarter of 2011 compared with the first quarter of 2010. The growth in core revenue was due primarily to the three recent acquisitions, the growth in new business and improved equity markets, as well, as an increase in trading services revenue. The improvement in net interest revenue was primarily due to deposits associated with the Servicing business we acquired from Intesa Sanpaolo and stronger deposit flows from other clients. Trading services revenue improved from the prior year's first quarter, primarily based on stronger foreign exchange revenue, as well as strength in both electronic trading and transition management. Securities finance revenue continued to be weak, primarily due to lower volumes offset partially by higher spreads. Turning to expenses. Expenses increased from the first quarter of 2010, primarily due to the impact of the three acquisitions. We earned $0.88 per share on an operating basis, a 17% increase from $0.75 in the first quarter of 2010 on a revenue increase of more than 10%. Now for a detailed look at the results of the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter of 2010. Our Servicing Fee revenue increased by 3% due to a higher average equity valuations and new business installed. Asset management revenue increased 7% due to favorable average month-end equity valuations and the impact of the acquisition of the Bank of Ireland's Asset Management business in January 2011, providing further details on trading services and securities finance. Foreign Exchange revenue declined 6% compared to the fourth quarter of 2010 primarily due to lower volatilities, offset partially by higher volumes. Brokerage in other revenue increased 2% compared to the fourth quarter of 2010 primarily due to an increase in electronic trading. Let me amplify Jay's remarks on our foreign exchange services. I'll review the three principal ways in which we execute foreign exchange transactions with our clients. First, we enter into foreign exchange transactions with clients and investment managers that contact our trading desk directly. These trades are all at individually negotiated rates. We refer to this as direct foreign exchange. The second way clients may choose to execute foreign exchange transactions is through one of our electronic trading platforms. Our compensation is based on a transaction fee for this service. And finally, clients, where their investment managers may elect to route foreign exchange transactions to our dealer or sub-custodians through our asset servicing operation, which we refer to as indirect foreign exchange. We enter into those trades as a dealer and set rates based upon a published formula. We believe our clients value our indirect foreign exchange service offering because indirect foreign exchange is primarily used by clients and investment managers for smaller value transactions so they can take advantage of a highly efficient trading execution, which mitigates settlement and operational risk and offers potential pricing advantages by determining execution prices for each investment manager on a net basis. Among other things, for indirect trades, we aggregate multiple orders or lots, determine how much of each currency is needed, set net rates and take care of execution and settlement. As a result, the customer obtains a net rate and avoids the cost of managing the process of executing what generally would be a series of smaller value transactions, and we take responsibility for the risk of errors and settlement failure that otherwise would remain with the customer. Let me size the portion of the total foreign exchange revenue derived from indirect foreign exchange. Total revenue at State Street in 2010 for all types of foreign exchange transactions was approximately $825 million, about $335 million or 41% of the total foreign exchange revenue was due to indirect transactions. Approximately $215 million or 64% of the revenue from indirect transactions was from U.S. clients. And of that U.S. indirect revenue, about $22.5 million or 10% was sourced from U.S. pension clients. I hope this information helps you better evaluate our Foreign Exchange business. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2010, securities finance revenue in the first quarter of 2011 declined 4% to $66 million due primarily to lower volumes, offset partially by higher spreads. Securities on loan averaged $359 billion for the first quarter of 2011, down from $368 billion for the fourth quarter of 2010 and down from $412 billion for the first quarter of 2010. Average lendable assets for the first quarter of 2011 were about $2.34 trillion, up slightly from $2.28 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2010 and from $2.29 trillion in the first quarter of 2010. As of March 31, 2011, the duration of the securities finance book was approximately 21 days, up from 17 days in the fourth quarter of 2010 and flat with the level of the first quarter of 2010. Processing fees and other revenue increased 30% from the fourth quarter of 2010. The increase is primarily due to revenue from various sources, none of which is individually material. Net interest revenue declined slightly, about 1% in the first quarter of 2011 compared with the fourth quarter of 2010 despite a slight increase in earning assets. The decline was primarily due to lower yields on fixed rate assets following the repositioning of the investment portfolio in the fourth quarter, as well as two fewer days in the first quarter, offset partially by lower funding costs. The net interest margin in the first quarter of 2011 was 166 basis points, up 1 basis point from 165 basis points in the fourth quarter. Including conduit-related discount accretion of $62 million in the first quarter of 2011, net interest margin was 185 basis points compared to 207 basis points in the fourth quarter of 2010. As of March 31, 2011, of the approximately $1.3 billion in discount accretion, we expect to accrete into interest revenue of the remaining terms of the assets. We continue to expect about $200 million, including the $62 million in the first quarter to accrete in 2011. As you're undoubtedly aware, a significant number of assumptions go into our estimate of future discount accretion over the remaining lives of the assets, including that we hold the assets to maturity, estimated prepayment speeds, expected future credit losses across various assets and sales. In the first quarter of 2011, we recorded about $4 million in net gains from sales of available-for-sale securities and separately about $11 million OTTI resulting in $7 million of net losses related to investment securities. The OTTI was primarily due to changes in the timing of expected cash flows. We maintain tight controls on expenses due to continuing uncertainty in the global markets. However, our salaries and benefit expenses increased 4% or $39 million from the fourth quarter of 2010 to $974 million due primarily to the timing of benefits expenses which included higher payroll taxes. Our other expenses line increased about 10% to $231 million due primarily to the impact of $40 million of insurance recoveries in the fourth quarter of 2010. Our operating basis effective tax rate for the first quarter was 28%, down from 29.5% in the fourth quarter of 2010 due to a favorable geographic mix of earnings. We expect the operating basis effective tax rate in 2011 to be about 28%. Now let me turn to the investment portfolio. Our investment portfolio as of March 31, 2011, increased about $9 billion to $103.9 billion compared to December 31, 2010. During the first quarter, we invested about $15 billion in highly rated securities at an average price of $99.82 and with an average yield of 1.17% and a duration of approximately 1.13 years. The $15 billion was primarily composed of the following securities: 96.2% of which are rated AAA; $3 billion in U.S. Treasury bills; $4.5 billion in agency mortgage-backed securities; $6.6 billion in asset-backed securities, including about $1.9 billion of foreign RMBS, mostly U.K. and Dutch issues; about $1.8 billion in securities backed by credit card receivables; and about $1.6 billion in student loans. The remainder was invested in smaller amounts in various asset classes. The aggregate net unrealized after-tax loss in our available-for-sale and held-to-maturity portfolios as of March 31, 2011, was $352 million, an improvement of $152 million from December 31, 2010, an improvement of about $1.9 billion or 85% from December 31, 2009. The improvement in the unrealized after-tax loss compared to December 31, 2010, was due primarily to improvement in spreads partially offset by higher rates. In our investment portfolio slide presentation, we have updated the data through quarter-end for your review. As of March 31, 2011, our portfolio was 90%, AAA or AA rated. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2010, the duration of the investment portfolio is about 1.59 years down from 1.70 years due to the sale of longer dated fixed rate securities and the purchase of floating rate securities. The duration gap of the entire balance sheet is 0.4 years, down from 0.53 years at December 31, 2010, due to both the shorter portfolio duration and the issuance of long-term senior debts to prefund next year's maturities. Despite additional downgrades of certain of our securities from major rating agencies, the effect on our investment portfolio was not meaningful and the securities affected are performing well. The majority of the downgrades were in non-agency ABS and MBS asset classes. I'll now review some of the assumptions we used in determining our 2011 outlook for net interest revenue and net interest margin. We continue to believe we should invest through the cycle and to invest in U.S. Treasury securities and very highly rated agency mortgage-backed securities and asset-backed securities. As of March 31, 2011, 57% of our investment portfolio was invested in floating rate securities and 43% in fixed rate securities. We now expect the net interest margin in 2011, to be in the upper half of the 155 to 165 basis point range, down from the level of 168 basis points achieved in 2010. Our assumptions include that the Bank of England rate remains at 50 basis points; that the ECB incrementally increases rates a total of 75 basis points in 2011; the first 25 basis points of which occurred on April 7, 2011; that the Federal Reserve keeps the overnight Fed funds rate at 25 basis points for all of 2011; and that the yield curve retains its current steepness. We continue to expect the S&P 500 to average about 1,265 in 2011, up about 11% from 1,140, the average in 2010. Finally, I'll briefly review our capital ratios. In the first quarter, State Street Corp's capital ratios under Basel I remained very strong. As of March 31, 2011, our total capital ratio stood at 21.6%, our Tier 1 leverage ratio stood at 8.7%, our Tier 1 Capital ratios stood at 19.6% and our TCE ratio was 7.4%. Based on our understanding of the Basel III proposed regulations and the information published by the Basel Committee, we estimate our capital ratios under Basel III as of March 31, 2011, to be our total capital ratio, 12.6%; our Tier 1 leverage ratio to be 6.3%; our Tier 1 Capital Ratio to be 11.4%; and our TCE ratio to be 7.4%. In conclusion, as we begin 2011, we continue to face headwinds from the low interest rate environment and increasing regulatory clause. However, we are pleased with our operating basis results for the first quarter of 2011. These results testify to the strength of our revenue in servicing and investment management, as well, as our success in managing net interest revenue and our ability to control expenses. Now I'll turn the call over to Jay to conclude our remarks.