James Doyle
Analyst · Evercore ISI
Thank you, Emanuele. Slide 7, please. In the second quarter, strong demand, low global inventories and improving refining margins supported a steady rise in product tanker rates. That strength has carried into the start of the third quarter with bookings to date averaging approximately $22,000 per day for MRs and $31,000 per day for LR2s, levels at which the company continues to generate significant free cash flow. While tensions between Israel and Iran did not disrupt flows through the Strait of Hormuz, the return of Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine serve as reminders of how fragile the geopolitical backdrop remains. That said, several near-term catalysts, including the unwinding of OPEC+ production cuts and increasing sanctions could further tighten supply-demand balance heading into year-end. And looking beyond the near term, the long-term story remains intact. Structural shifts in refining, longer trade routes and an aging fleet all support a positive outlook. We view the setup, both near and long term as increasingly constructive. Slide 8, please. Strong demand and low global inventories have led to higher exports, and we expect this to continue. Excluding fuel oil, refined product demand will grow 900,000 barrels per day higher in the second half of this year compared to last. In July, seaborne product exports averaged 21.1 million barrels per day, about 400,000 barrels per day higher than the same month last year. Slide 9, please. Since April, OPEC+ has committed to restore 1.9 million barrels per day of production. While these barrels have been slow to appear, partly due to seasonal power demand in the Middle East, we expect them to come, supporting crude tanker demand with some spillover to products. Last year, in a weaker crude market, some crude tankers shifted into clean trades moving 50 million barrels of refined products between May and July. This year, that figure is just 20 million barrels in the same period. With current earnings spreads offering little incentive for crossover, we see limited crude cannibalization on products, further tightening the product tanker balance. Slide 10, please. Two weeks ago, the EU introduced its 18th sanctions package on Russia, lowering the crude price cap, banning imports of products from refined Russian oil and sanctioning 101 additional tankers. While transition periods may delay immediate effects, the longer-term impact could be meaningful. Vessels operating under the price cap or swing capacity will be challenged by a lower price cap, likely pushing more ships into the shadow fleet to maintain Russian exports. Many of the vessels doing strictly Russian trades will struggle to reenter Western markets because of their age,, operating history and insurance or maintenance shortcomings. For example, 89% of the MR vessels sanctioned by the EU and U.K. are older than 18 years. Additionally, banning imports of products refined from Russian crude could lengthen trade routes as Europe would need to replace diesel from countries that are importing Russian crude. The result, increasing inefficiencies, tightening effective supply and potentially longer ton miles. Slide 11, please. Over the medium term, refinery rationalization is arguably one of the most important drivers of refined product trade flows. We continue to see closures in global refining capacity. Planned shutdowns such as Valero's Benicia Refinery in California are unplanned like the Lindsey refinery in the U.K. At the same time, the lack of new capacity is being developed in emerging markets. Over the last 5 years, global net refining capacity growth has only been 500,000 barrels. Refineries face steep capital outlays to stay compliant with tightening regulations, and for older refineries, the economics may no longer work. As we have seen, refinery closures don't eliminate demand, they simply reroute it and often across oceans and longer distances. This has been a key driver in ton-mile demand, which has increased 20% since 2019. Slide 12, please. The product tanker order book currently stands at 20% of the existing fleet, a figure that may appear elevated at first glance, but as always, context matters. A wave of fleet renewal was inevitable. Between 2001 and 2008, nearly 1,500 product tankers were ordered. Many of those are now reaching 20 years of age with a growing share approaching the end of their commercial lives. Meanwhile, new build activity has slowed considerably. Year-to-date, only 23 product tankers have been ordered. As we discussed on the last call, LR2s now make up half the current order book. However, it's important to note that 51% of LR2s on the water today are trading in crude oil, and we expect this to continue. In short, the effective growth in clean product capacity looks far more modest than it appears, especially when you consider utilization. Slide 13, please. One of the less visible but no less important contributors to market tightness is the lower utilization of older tonnage. We often speak about supply in binary terms, newbuild deliveries and vessel scrapping, but the reality is more nuanced. As ships age, their utilization gradually declines. As shown in the left-hand chart, the ton-mile demand of a 20-year-old vessel is 45% less than a modern vessel today, reflecting limitations in trading opportunities, efficiency and regulatory access. That drop off could be even steeper, closer to 70% without the Russian trade. This isn't a short-term story. Between 2003 and 2010, we saw significant growth in the product tanker fleet. The result, a large cohort of vessels now approaching or surpassing 20 years of age. The chart on the right makes this clear. Including the current order book, 17.5% of the fleet is older than 20 years today. By 2028, that figure climbs to 30%. The implications are structural. The fleet is aging, utilization is falling and effective supply is tightening, even without a dramatic increase in scrapping. Slide 14, please. Given the lower utilization and the likelihood of LR2 vessels trading crude oil, fleet growth could be lower than expected. In scenario 2, we assume 40% of LR newbuilds carry crude oil and scrapping remains minimal. The product tanker fleet would increase by 2.8% per year over the next 3 years. In scenario 3, using the same LR2 crossover and carrying capacity declines for vessels 21 to 27 years old, effective fleet growth drops to less than 1% per year, and we think effective fleet growth is likely to be somewhere in the middle of that range. By contrast, ton-mile demand has compounded at 3.6% annually since 2000. Strong demand, modest supply growth and structural shifts in refining capacity continue to add ton miles to every barrel. In our view, the growing gap between demand and effective supply sets the stage for a sustained favorable rate environment in both the near and long term. With that, I will turn it over to Chris.