Allison Dukes
Analyst · Autonomous Research. Please go ahead
Thanks, Bill. Let's start with net interest income. As you can see on Slide 5, our net interest margin is down 11 basis points sequentially and 12 basis points year-over-year. There are few factors driving this. First, funding cost continue to increase, driven by both an increase in the rate paid on deposits in addition to increased levels of wholesale funding to support the $1.5 billion of loan growth we delivered in the second quarter. Second, one month LIBOR declined by 5 basis points on average in the quarter and approximately 25% of our earning assets, net of debt and commercial loan swaps, are tied with this index. And, lastly, the roughly 30 basis point average decline in longer-term rates and the roughly 60 basis point point-to-point decline and longer-term rates negatively impacted yields and prepayments in our fixed rate assets, largely mortgage-backed securities and mortgage loans. Looking to the third quarter, we expect net interest margin to decline by 7 to 9 basis points relative to the second quarter. This is primarily driven by our assumption that there will be a July rate cut and our view that deposit betas in the early rate cut will be low, similar to how they were low during the first few rate hikes. In addition, day count higher premium amortization in the MBS portfolio and funding mix shift are also components, albeit smaller, that are embedded in our third quarter guidance. From an NII perspective, we would expect third quarter NII to decline 0% to 1% relative to second quarter, as loan growth and day count were partially offset the decline in NIM. Moving to Slide 6. When excluding the $205 million insurance settlement, non-interest income increased by $36 million sequentially, driven primarily by commercial real estate related income, which benefited from higher client activity in structured real estate and agency lending in addition to a $12 million increase in investment banking income. Mortgage production income was up by $22 million and reflects strength in both refinance and purchase with sequential closed loan volumes up 57% and 81%, respectively. Gain on sale margins are also affirming, given increased industry volumes against reduced capacity. The strength in mortgage production, however, were more than offset by a $36 million decline in servicing income where the more volatile, lower and flatter rate environment negatively impacted hedge performance on our MSR portfolio and drove an increase in the decay expense. Also, as I discussed on the previous Slide, the lower rate environment negatively impacted reinvestment yields and prepayments on the mortgage loan portfolio in the second quarter. Looking to the third quarter, we would expect total mortgage-related fee income to decline from the second quarter levels as refinance activity may abate and purchase seasonally decline, while servicing income will continue to have elevated decay as over cost [indiscernible] decay expense on the servicing portfolio is recorded at close, while gain on sale within production income is recorded at the time of rate loss. Separately, as we had indicated in our first quarter earnings call, we sold an accruing residential TDR portfolio in the middle of April, which resulted in a $44 million gain. This was largely offset by a $42 million loss related to the repositioning of approximately $3 billion of our securities portfolio. As I said in April, the net P&L impact will be relatively immaterial to our earnings profile going forward. Moving to expenses, on Slide 7. We recognized $14 million of merger-related impacts on the second quarter: $8 million primarily related to legal fees would show up as merger-related costs and $6 million primarily related to consulting expenses would show up in other non-interest expense. We would expect total merger-related expenses to be in the $10 million to $15 million range in the third quarter. We also had $205 million contribution to the SunTrust Foundation, offsetting the insurance settlement, which Bill mentioned earlier. Excluding the contribution and merger-related impacts, expenses decreased by $25 million sequentially as a result of lower operating losses in the second quarter and elevated branch closure costs in the first quarter. Compared to the prior year, adjusted expenses increased by $29 million, or 2%, driven by higher compensation expense in addition to ongoing investments in technology. Importantly, these investments in talent and technology were largely funded by ongoing efficiency initiatives. We also recorded $32 million of discrete tax benefits this quarter related to the resolution of certain tax matters. Excluding these benefits, our effective tax rate would have been approximately 17%. Looking to the third quarter, we would expect our effective tax rate, excluding any discrete items, to be between 17% and 18%, and between 19% and 20% if you model us on an FTE basis. As you can see on Slide 8, the adjustable tangible efficiency ratio was 59% for the quarter. Year-to-date, we've delivered 50 basis points of improvement in the adjusted tangible efficiency ratio, which is good progress, especially when considering the 4 basis point decline in our net interest margin for the first half of 2019 compared to the first half of 2018. More importantly, given the synergies we will achieve by merging with BB&T, we will have significantly greater capacity to invest in innovation, technology and talent. This is one of the key benefits of this transaction, not just that we have the opportunity to achieve best-in-class efficiency, which is of course a great outcome for our shareholders, but more so to have incremental capacity for investments. Now moving to Slide 9. Our net charge-off ratio was 22 basis points in the second quarter, down 4 basis points relative to the first quarter. The low level of net charge-offs reflects the relative strengths we are seeing across all of our portfolios, performance we are extremely pleased with that we remain cognizant that there could be some variability and normalization going forward. Our non-performing loan ratio of 34 basis points, which is stable relative to the prior quarter also remained well below historical averages. Provision expense declined by $26 million sequentially as a result of slower loan growth, relative to the first quarter and lower net charge-offs. Looking into the third quarter of 2019, we would expect our net charge-off ratio to be on the low-end of our 25 to 30 basis point guidance. We do expect the ALLL ratio to remain relatively stable, which would result in a provision expense that exceeds net charge-offs given loan growth. Moving to the balance sheet on Slide 10. We continue to [indiscernible] have good loan growth, evidenced by the 1% sequential growth in average balances. Importantly, that growth was diversified across most portfolios, including C&I, CRE, consumer direct and indirect auto. Wholesale growth was diversified across each of our lines of business. Within CIB, loan growth was broad-based across many of our industry verticals in addition to growth in our asset finance business. Commercial banking growth was also broad-based with strength across most client segments, including auto dealer, aging services, our expansion markets and core commercial clients. CRE growth continued at the result of investments we have made in permanent lending and bridge lending capabilities, which is being partially offset by run-off within the construction portfolio. Within consumer, the ongoing investments we have made in our digital and point-of-sale lending capabilities, which provide for a superior client experience, are also driving good growth and enhancing our returns. Our auto portfolio continues to demonstrate healthy growth and solid risk-adjusted returns. Across both wholesale and consumer, our underwriting discipline has not changed and we remain highly focused on ensuring that the quality of our new production is consistent with the quality of our existing portfolio. On the deposit side, average balances were stable sequentially. Consistent with prior quarters, we continue to see a migration from lower cost deposits to CDs, largely due to higher rates and our targeted strategies, which allows us to retain our existing depositors while also acquiring new households. Interest-bearing deposit costs increased by 6 basis points sequentially, lower than the prior two quarter increases of 9 and 10 basis points, respectively. This quarter's increase in deposit costs reflects, to some extent, the lagged impact from prior rate hikes. Now moving to Slide 11 to provide an update on our capital position. Our estimated Basel III common equity Tier 1 ratio was 9.2% and the Tier 1 ratio was 10.2%, slightly higher than the prior quarter given the suspension of share repurchases. Book value and tangible book value per share increased by 5% and 6% sequentially, given the growth in retained earnings and the impact that lower rates had on improving the unrealized loss position in our securities portfolio. Going forward, we expect capital ratios to trend upward given the suspension of share repurchases in anticipation of our merger with BB&T. Separately, subject to Board approval, we plan to increase our quarterly dividend from $0.50 per common share to $0.56 per common share beginning in the third quarter, which represents a 12% increase, provide for an attractive pro forma dividend yield of 3.5%, and reflects our confidence and our standalone earnings capacity. Moving to the segment overviews, we'll begin with the consumer segment on Slide 12. A positive lending momentum we had in consumer continued in the second quarter with consumer lending production, excluding mortgage, achieving a record level and up 16% year-over-year. The investments we've made in LightStream and our point-of-sale lending partnership continued to be consistent contributors to our loan growth. Over the past year, we have focused on enhancing our analytics, improving automation, adding product offerings and growing our partnerships in referrals, all of which are key contributors to the 40% year-over-year growth we delivered in LightStream. Consistent with prior quarters, some of this collective growth has been offset by the continued decline in home equities. We are encouraged by the growth we have with our direct consumer lending businesses, which provides us with great momentum headed into our proposed merger, where we will have the opportunity to meet the digital lending needs of a broader set of clients. Overall, the 6% loan growth and 1% deposit growth [indiscernible] the 4% increase in net interest income relative to the prior quarter -- relative to the prior year. Consumer fee income benefited from the $44 million gain related to the sale of an accruing residential TDR portfolio. Excluding this, fee income was relatively stable sequentially and year-over-year. As mentioned earlier, mortgage-related income declined by $14 million sequentially as the increase in production was more than offset by lower servicing income, given the impact the rate environment had on decay expense and hedge performance for MSR portfolio. Wealth management-related non-interest income increased 4% sequentially as market conditions improved. Assets under management are up a solid 4% year-over-year. Excluding the TDR sale, our efficiency ratio in consumer improved by 170 basis points year-over-year. Relatedly our branch count is down by 6% in the past year. These efficiencies have been used to make ongoing improvements in technology. SmartGUIDE, our digital mortgage application, has achieved an almost 90% adoption. We're now working to streamline aspects of the back-end origination process as well. The early results are very encouraging. We've received another Online Banking Award from Javelin in the second quarter, continuing our positive results with regards to third-party digital recognition. Big picture, our consumer business continue to make very good progress. Excluding the TDR gain, revenues are up 3% year-over-year, expenses are stable and pre-provision net revenue was up 8% year-over-year. These businesses continue to benefit from the strong presence across high growth markets in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic in addition to our continued progress in enhancing digital and technology capabilities. Each of these strengths will be amplified when we merged with BB&T, creating retail and private wealth businesses that will be leaders in the industry across many key dimensions; growth, efficiency, talent and technology. Now moving to wholesale on Slide 13 where our consistent strategy continues to drive good results. On the lending side, we saw solid growth across CIB, Commercial and CRE. More broadly, the growth in our wholesale lending portfolio is a reflection of our clients' continued optimism in the economy, which has resulted in higher utilization rates and strong production levels. Paydown activity did increase, as anticipated, which drove slower loan growth relative to the first quarter. Importantly, the loan growth did not come at the expense of risk or return discipline. Our model is focused on leading with advice, not structure or price. This is also reflected in our low net charge-off ratio, which was 5 basis points in the second quarter. It has remained below 20 basis points for each of the last 10 quarters. As mentioned previously, commercial real estate-related income was a key driver of the 11% sequential and 4% year-over-year growth in fee income. In particular, this was driven by increased transaction activity in CIB structured real estate business and CRE's agency lending business. We continue to benefit from strong client relationship and deep structuring expertise in the structured real estate business and we're now seeing improved momentum from our agency lending business, given increased partnership between our coverage bankers and our product specialists. We also saw an improvement in investment banking income relative to the first quarter, driven by a pick up an equity offering, a good sign of investor confidence and, more importantly, a good reflection of our increasing strategic relevance with our clients. Trading income had a strong quarter and was broad-based across most product categories. While provision expense did prevent a headwind to net income, a strong revenue growth we have delivered in the first half of the year, combined with ongoing expense discipline, drove a 4% increase in pre-provision net revenue year-to-date. Bigger picture, we've made consistent strategic investments in building out our products and industry expertise, expanding our product offerings and expanding into new markets, the success of which is demonstrated in our results. First, in CRE, the strong loan growth we are seeing as a result of our recently introduced permanent financing and bridge lending capabilities, combined with the aforementioned growth in fee, is making this business a more meaningful and diversified contributor to wholesale earnings. In commercial banking, we continue to have success with the national expansion of our aging services vertical in addition to the expansion of our core commercial business into new markets in Texas and Ohio. Combined, these two areas of investment contributed to approximately 40% of our year-over-year loan growth in commercial banking. And, finally, in capital markets, our revenues from non-CIB clients are up 8% year-to-date. Importantly, this increased level of connectivity we have across wholesale in the success of our one team approach are creating a more sustainable and granular source of capital markets revenue. Each of these strategies continues to drive solid sustainable results and has created a strong foundation, which we can build upon as we merge, and have the opportunity to bring our capabilities and differentiated model to a broader set of corporate and commercial clients. And, with that, I'll turn the call back over to Bill.