Earnings Labs

Solidion Technology Inc. (STI)

Q4 2014 Earnings Call· Fri, Jan 16, 2015

$4.36

-2.02%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to the SunTrust Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call and thank you for standing by. At this time, all participant lines are in a listen-only mode until the question-and-answer portion of today’s conference. [Operator Instructions] Today’s conference call is being recorded. If you have any objections, please disconnect at this time. And now I’ll turn the call over to Ankur Vyas, Director of Investor Relations. Thank you, you may begin.

Ankur Vyas

Analyst

Thank you, Brad. Good morning, and welcome to SunTrust fourth quarter 2014 earnings conference call. Thank you for joining us. In addition to today's press release, we've also provided a presentation that covers the topics we plan to address during our call. The press release, presentation and detailed financial schedules can be accessed at investors.suntrust.com. With me today, among other members of our executive management team, are Bill Rogers, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Aleem Gillani, our Chief Financial Officer. Before we get started, I need to remind you that our comments today may include forward-looking statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainty and actual results could differ materially. We list the factors that might cause actual results to differ materially in our SEC filings, which are available on our website. During the call, we will discuss non-GAAP financial measures when talking about the Company's performance. You can find the reconciliation of these measures to GAAP financial measures in our press release and on our website, investors.suntrust.com. Finally, SunTrust is not responsible for and does not edit nor guarantee the accuracy of our earnings teleconference transcripts provided by third parties. The only authorized live and archived webcasts are located on our website. With that, I'll turn the call over to Bill.

William H. Rogers

Analyst

Thanks, Ankur. I'll begin this morning with a high level overview of the quarter, and then I’ll turn it over to Aleem to discuss the results in more detail. Following Aleem’s comments, I'll review our performance at the segment level and wrap up with my perspectives on 2014 as a whole. Throughout the year we made significant progress on several fronts, continue to expense discipline and further improvement in credit quality, help to offset the impact of the sustained low rate environment on revenues and translated into core earnings growth and lower adjusted tangible efficiency ratio. Our performance in the fourth quarter continued that momentum. Reported earnings per share for the quarter were $0.72 on net income of common of $378 million. This quarter’s results included a $145 million legal provision to both resolve and reserve for legacy mortgage matters. We remain focused on resolving these matters in a prudent fashion and this quarter’s accrual was another step in the right direction. Excluding the legal provision adjusted earnings per share were $0.88 up 9% sequentially and 14% year-over-year. Total revenue was up modestly relative to the prior quarter. Net interest income was essentially flat as it has been in prior quarters with solid loan and deposit growth offset by continued margin compression. Non-interest income was up 2% sequentially driven primarily by higher mortgage related income and good performance in investment banking. Adjusted expenses were generally stable to the prior quarter, however down a full 7% compared to the prior year driven by continued expense reduction efforts, lower cyclical cost and the sale of RidgeWorth. Importantly for the full year we reduced our expense base from 2013 as adjusted expenses were down nearly $200 million or 4% year-over-year. Accordingly we met our efficiency ratio goal with an adjusted tangible efficiency ratio…

Aleem Gillani

Analyst

Thanks, Bill. Good morning, everybody. Thank you for joining us as we wrap up 2014 and look forward to 2015. Before I begin my review of this quarter, I’ll remind you that our 2013 and 2014 reported results are impacted by certain non-core items the details of which are included in the appendix of our earnings presentations and release. These items can skew both quarterly and annual comparisons and therefore I will primarily focus on adjusted results to make the core trends more clear. Earnings per share in the fourth quarter were $0.72 including a $145 million legal provision related to previously disclosed legacy mortgage matters which reflects increase legal reserves and the final settlement of a specific matter. This legal accrual was recorded as we made further progress on certain matters in the fourth quarter accordingly based on what we know today we would expect our reasonably possible legal losses in excess of reserves to decline by a roughly similar amount. Excluding the impact of this provision adjusted earnings per share were $0.88 which were 9% higher than the prior quarter and 14% higher than the fourth quarter of last year. The sequential increase was driven by higher non-interest income, a lower provision for credit losses and a slightly lower effective tax rate. Compared to the fourth quarter of last year earnings growth was driven by a 7% reduction in adjusted expenses, higher mortgage-related revenue and a lower provision expense which together more than offset the loss of income from RidgeWorth. For the full year adjusted earnings per share increased 18% compared to 2013 as solid balance sheet growth, lower expenses and improved asset quality more than offset a reduction in mortgage production income and a 17 basis point decline in the net interest margin. Let’s review the underlying…

William H. Rogers

Analyst

Great, thanks Aleem. And I’ll draw your attention to Slide 13. In Consumer Banking and Private Wealth Management we continue to make progress on our core growth initiative while holding a lot on expenses. Looking at the numbers, net income declined 5% sequentially, but was up 13% year-over-year. The sequential decline was driven primarily by higher provision expense, due to some moderating asset quality improvement. Total revenue was essentially flat compared to the third quarter, but was up 3% year-over-year. Net interest income increased relative to both prior periods driven by continued growth in loans and deposits. Non-interest income was down sequentially due to seasonally higher income and certain nonrecurring fees earned in the third quarter. Year-over-year, non-interest income was up 3%, driven by growth in Wealth Management related income and card fees. Average loans were up half a percentage point on a sequential basis with double digit growth and consumer direct partially offset by continued run-off in the home equity portfolio and certain loan sales during the quarter. Average deposits grew 3% sequentially reflecting our increased focus on meeting more of clients deposit needs particular in our affluent, high-net worth businesses. Turning to the full year results, net income was up 7% driven by higher revenue and lower provision, partially offset by higher expenses. Total revenue increased 2% driven primarily by 6% growth in Wealth Management related fees which reflects our increased investment in people, tools, technology to better meet our client needs. These investments were the primary drivers of growth and expenses year-over-year. The full year results in this business demonstrate good execution of the core strategic initiatives we’ve outlined in the past. Improving Wealth Management related income, enhancing the growth and returns of our consumer lending portfolio and making critical investments in talent and technology. Heading in…

Ankur Vyas

Analyst

Okay, thanks Bill. Brad, we are now ready to begin the Q&A portion of the call. As we do so, I’d like to ask the participants to please limit yourselves to one primary question and one follow-up so that we can accommodate as many of you as possible today.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, sir. [Operator Instructions] And our first question will come from Matt O’Connor of Deutsche Bank. Your line is open. Matt O’Connor: Good morning.

William H. Rogers

Analyst

Good morning, Matt.

Aleem Gillani

Analyst

Hi, Matt. Matt O’Connor: I was wondering if you could elaborate on the strategy of trying to optimize the balance sheet by some of the loans that you are selling or moving to held-for-sale or just the kind of approach you are taking in terms of the criteria to evaluate the loans.

Aleem Gillani

Analyst

Certainly, Matt. I guess the first criteria is whether these are single service clients or they’re sort of multi-product clients and to the extent that they are single service clients that makes these loans more eligible for loans that we might be willing to sell. The second criteria is financial, we are looking at the overall return on that relationship and on that transaction and for lower ROA loans those are the ones that we would tend to look at first. So in the context of our overall strategy which is the optimizing the entire balance sheet, looking at the risk profile of those loans and our balance sheet, think of this as sort of a continuation of the approach we’ve actually taken over the last couple of years that continue to grow in terms of meeting all of our clients needs and also improve the financial performance and returns of the company. Matt O’Connor: And then I guess segueing into just net interest income overall you gave pretty explicit guidance for 1Q, but as we think about all the moving pieces including some potential loan sales and obviously lower rates here, how would you think about the trajectory off of the 1Q level for the rest of 2015?

Aleem Gillani

Analyst

Well, for net interest income overall as I think about the year, I think we are going to be treading water around that $1.2 billion type number, we continue to add terrific new business, we continue to grow the balance sheet with both new loans and getting deeper with our current clients, but the rate environment just continues to grind down and offset all of the benefits. So I think for a while we are just going to be treading water around that $1.2 billion level. Matt O’Connor: I mean just last follow-up, you talked about plans to grow revenue in your prepared comments, so obviously if net interest income is relatively flat, you are counting on fees, which categories or businesses do you think will be the key drivers?

William H. Rogers

Analyst

Yes, Matt, the good news is we’ve been making investments, so this is not sort of starting from sort of a flat surface and the places where we’ve been making investments and we're seeing the results, and I’ll name them sort of not necessarily in order but sort of go around the horn, what you have obviously seen continued progress in the investment banking part of our business and we’ve added more capability there but we’ve also expanded that reach within our company, so we’ve seen now much more expanded fee generating capability out of our commercial business and out of our commercial real estate business the investments we’ve made in corporate banking sort of around the country, you are starting to now see some of the fee generation that comes from that. So there are lots of momentum builders in that business. Everything on the private wealth side has continued to have momentum, we’re up about 6% there, we’ve continued to invest in people, we’ve continued to invest in technology, we're sort of net in hiring mode in that business, but we’ve also done things like put premier bankers in our branches and they are going to really help, we’ve given them a lot more data and a lot more analytics and they are really going to help us mine what we have as an already sort of bias to the affluent in our retail system and we're going to mine that better. And then mortgage, so and it’s great to mention mortgage on the positive side, we're going to see some movement there, we’ve already seen here the first couple of days some refi activity, I would love to extrapolate the next two days across the rest of the year, I’m not sure we can do that but we're starting to see some activity not only in the refinance side, but just sort of the core basic business in our retail markets as our markets improve. So there are a number of things, I mean those are sort of just three, but there are a number of things that we're investing in and credit card would be another on the smaller side in terms of fee generation. Matt O’Connor: Okay. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Ryan Nash of Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Ryan M. Nash

Analyst

Hey, good morning guys.

William H. Rogers

Analyst

Good morning Ryan.

Aleem Gillani

Analyst

Good morning Ryan.

Ryan M. Nash

Analyst

Aleem, I just wanted to make sure I got the message correct on expenses; I think this is now the second straight quarter. We did see expenses come below the 1.3 level; I think you averaged around 1.3 for the year. Given the fact that I know there are some seasonal elements to it, does the 1.3 to 1.35 level still hold and the reason I ask, it sounds like the revenue environment is marginally more challenging at this point in time, so I just want to get a sense of where you would expect expenses to fall out for the full year?

Aleem Gillani

Analyst

Yes, Ryan I do think that full year expenses as I look at them today are going to be in that sort of $5.2 billion to $5.3 billion range for the year. But clearly as you point out, if they are revenue dependent and the revenue environment could move us out of that range either higher or lower and obviously as we look at overall expenses we’re focused very much on the efficiency ratio. So as we think about what the revenue environment will be and how we adjust expenses against that revenue environment if you start off with a core expectation between $5.2 billion and $5.3 billion. And then think about we will adjust, we will calibrate that as revenues go up or down. Thinking about Q1 in this context, Q1 probably is up towards the top end of the quarterly range as a result of the normal seasonal effects.

Ryan M. Nash

Analyst

Got, it. And then just putting all the guidance together do you still expect to grow earnings in 2015 from the 3.24 level?

Aleem Gillani

Analyst

We are going to be targeting continued improvement at the Company. So whether that is efficiency ratio, whether that’s earnings, whether that’s returns we want to continue to make this company better over time.

Ryan M. Nash

Analyst

Got it. I figure I had to take a shot. And I guess lastly Bill you talked about 3.5% energy exposure, but can you just give us a sense of energy exposure for the overall bank both from a lending perspective and from a fee income perspective. How is what we’ve seen happen to energy prices impacting capital markets? And then from a consumer perspective are you starting to see the benefits of lower gas prices showing up in both consumer spending and willingness to borrow?

William H. Rogers

Analyst

Yes, sure I’ll try to hit all of those. I think Aleem, outlined the portfolio, it’s about 3.5% of the portfolio and about 70% of that portfolio is really not significantly related to falling oil prices, think about 50% of portfolio is utility. So that sort of suffered a large part as midstream, that’s just the transporting of oil from one place to another, that is not as impacted by prices as a much lower exposure and the E&P side and the oil field services side. From a capital markets perspective and really also loan growth perspective, I mean energy has been an important part of what we do, we don’t want to under mine that, but it’s been sort of less than 10% of our loan growth. And the fee part of the business has been pretty consistent over the last several years. So this is not something that’s been disproportionately part of the fee income business. Did some of the fee business in the fourth quarter that was energy related not happen yes, that would be accurate and high yield markets sort of tightened up will some of that happen this year maybe. I think actually we’re pretty well positioned, you remember we made a small acquisition of a company called Lantana which is in the advice business and while I think once sort of things level add a little bit probably sort to the later part of this year I think you’re going to see a lot of activity actually in the energy side as people sort of reset and think about their structure. As it relates to the consumer side I mean I think you sort of hit it accurately I mean relative to given the fact that we’re not in a lot of the geographic markets that are going to be impacted more by a fall in oil prices well our consumers will see sort of that increase in tax refund equivalent of fall in oil prices. Have we seen it yet, I mean it might be too early I mean I’ve looked closely at spending numbers and a credit card numbers and those kinds of things while they’re marginally up its might be a little bit early to sort of see the total impact of that, but I have to believe that over the course of the year we’ll see the most positive side for us arching much more towards the consumer side than the risk on the energy side.

William H. Rogers

Analyst

Ryan, I’d also point out that the vast majority of our corporate and commercial clients are in our footprint and they’re going to also benefit from the drop in energy prices. So we’ve got this clear differentiation between energy and consumer, but even within the corporate and commercial base our overall client base ought to do better with lower energy prices.

Operator

Operator

Our next question will come from John Pancari of Evercore ISI. Your line is open.

John Pancari

Analyst

Good morning.

William H. Rogers

Analyst

Good morning, John.

Aleem Gillani

Analyst

Hi, John.

John Pancari

Analyst

On the expense side on the comp expense sorry if you’ve already commented on it, but just want to get a little more color on the decline in the comp expense the drivers of it and how sustainable that decline is, is it all related to the efforts you’ve been doing on the headcount side and the efficiencies and should we borrowing any typical seasonality, should we use this as a new base?

Aleem Gillani

Analyst

Now let John, it’s a little bit above, it’s a little bit of we continue to get more efficient, but in addition we also had a reversal of some incentive accruals and actually for the year our medical costs came in lower than we were expecting our experience on that side ended that being a little bit better. So some of the benefit in the fourth quarter was a result of those and as I said earlier if I think about total comp expense I would increase that in Q1 about a $100 million relative to Q4 some of that for normal FICA/401K seasonality and some of that just because we’re starting from the lower number in the fourth quarter.

John Pancari

Analyst

Okay, thank you. Sorry, I have to repeat that. And then on the commercial loan growth in the quarter just want to get some additional detail behind the drivers of the growth and then also your expectation around the C&I portfolio growth in coming quarters?

William H. Rogers

Analyst

The good news John that’s really, really broad based I mean we really saw - if you look at sort of the total year virtually every vertical that we’re involved in on the C&I space group, so some in obviously different paces, but it reflects the diversity of our business mix, the investments that we’ve made, it was fairly universal, it wasn’t sort of in anyone particular place. We did see a little uptick in utilization, I don’t want to sort of overplay that because quarter-to-quarter it can go up and down, but this quarter was up and up little more than we have seen in previous quarters. I think on balance that’s a good thing, hopefully that reflects sort of more of that investment capital type of horn, but it was very broad based.

Operator

Operator

Our next question will come from Mike Mayo of CLSA. Your line is open.

Mike Mayo

Analyst

Hi, can you talk more about the efficiency if you striped out the known headwinds with the swaps, how much would you expect the core efficiency ratio to improve in 2015 and if we had to identify three of the reasons for the [indiscernible] efficiency what are you most focused on?

Aleem Gillani

Analyst

Well, Mike, I think we’re most focused on growing fee income and meeting more of our clients needs across everyone of our segments as well as connecting clients better across our businesses. So I think we have got, as Bill pointed out earlier, lots of opportunity in that space to continue to do better and the growth in that space along with a no lessening in our expense discipline I think will allow us to continue to improve our efficiency ratio in 2015 relative to where we ended up in 2014.

William H. Rogers

Analyst

Yes, I think it’s - I don’t want anyone to think we are hedging it all on our commitment to our expense discipline, that commitment is in place, we’ve created a lot of really positive momentum it continues. What we are balancing is the investment opportunity, so as we continue to achieve efficiency and expense saves, I want to make sure that we're also investing for the future and that’s a delicate balance of walking and as Aleem mentioned, we’ll calibrate. So we’ll calibrate what's happening on the revenue side to the expense side that always does have work quarter-for-quarter and we're committed to continue to improve on the efficiency ratio.

Aleem Gillani

Analyst

Mike, I don’t want to make light of how hard this is going to be, this is really hard in 2014 we had $200 million of revenue headwinds, we fought our way through that and got better. In 2015 we're going to have another $200 million of revenue headwinds. So after doing it once, it gets harder to do it again, but we understand the task in front of us and we're going to be working hard to achieve it.

Mike Mayo

Analyst

I mean the reason I asked the question, again I mean your efficiency ratio was 61.9 in the third quarter, 61.4 in the fourth quarter and your guidance which certainly is appreciated is for under 63%. So you are kind of already there. So on a headline basis it might be tough for us to figure out some of the ins and outs or can you break it out or?

William H. Rogers

Analyst

Well I think that’s an easy math.

Aleem Gillani

Analyst

Yes, you have always have a seasonal impact.

William H. Rogers

Analyst

Yes.

Aleem Gillani

Analyst

Clearly what happens from the - just on the FICA and reset loan, I mean you have a significant reset in the first quarter, so there always is some seasonal impact and of course we're catching us at the best part of that seasonal impact.

William H. Rogers

Analyst

Yes and don’t forget the revenue headwind that starts now that starts in 2015 relative to the 2014 on the swaps. So we loved being able to deliver numbers that were 61 Mike, but we're starting 2015 in the tougher place.

Operator

Operator

Our next question will come from Ken Usdin of Jefferies. Your line is open.

Kenneth Usdin

Analyst

Hi thanks good morning.

William H. Rogers

Analyst

Good morning Ken.

Kenneth Usdin

Analyst

Aleem, I was wondering this quarter you didn’t make many adjustments to that swap income portfolio ladder and just given where rates have gone and it changes - the macro view of when this head might move, how inclined are you to continue to continue to add to swaps in the future on top of what you have had done in the past.

Aleem Gillani

Analyst

Yes, I think we continue to look at that very actively Ken through our ALCO process as you know we're continuing to do new loans, or continue to grow the business and those come on, the majority of those loans come on floating, so deciding whether to fix them or not is sort of part of overall balance sheet strategy and we did do a little bit in the fourth quarter, nothing overly substantial on that side, but we’ll continue to manage the overall balance sheet duration and continue to be opportunistic to the extent that we can. And if there are large moves one way or the other we’ll consider that in our overall balance sheet strategy. In the fourth quarter we had some small action, in addition you saw the securities loss that was basically moving Level 2 HQLA into Level 1 to make sure that we continue to stay compliant under the LCR. So there are few of these sorts of minor little actions going on back and forth, but as we go through 2015 if there are opportunities that makes sense from a risk versus return trade off we’ll continue to take those.

Kenneth Usdin

Analyst

Okay, got it and a follow-up on the curve, just can you give us a flush out of context of where and how that the low ten-year affects your portfolio or not relative to peers in terms of if we stay here and the lower than expected or hope for ten-year, what parts of the portfolio should we be mindful off?

William H. Rogers

Analyst

Yes. Well I don’t know how it would affect us relative to peer, but when you look at us specifically the ten-year rate affects us in a couple of ways. Number one, it affects us in terms of mortgage rates and mortgages that we put in our portfolio. Typically we’re putting $200 million to $250 million a month of jumbo mortgages within our portfolio and those are split, some fixed, some floating or some fixed, some aren’t and the other place of the ten-year rate affects us is in the investment portfolio and as the rate drops that mortgage-backed securities we have in our investment portfolio tend to prepay a little bit faster and we reinvest that cash at slightly lower rates. So with a dramatic drop in rates such as we’ve seen, we would get probably a little bit more public awareness, a little bit more publicity and some of that will happen a little bit faster. The offset to that from a NIM and net interest income perspective of course is increased refis and increased fee income in the mortgage business that I’m hope will act to completely offset the drop in net interest income from lower rates.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from John McDonald with Sanford Bernstein. Your line is open.

John E. McDonald

Analyst · Sanford Bernstein. Your line is open.

Hi, good morning guys. I was wondering about just on the credit outlook Aleem, I think you said you kind of expect to maybe bounce around the charge-off level you are at now, is that maybe 30 basis points kind of in that ballpark, is that what you are thinking about?

Aleem Gillani

Analyst · Sanford Bernstein. Your line is open.

Well, I think for full year 2014 John; we ended up around 34 basis points, 35 basis points.

John E. McDonald

Analyst · Sanford Bernstein. Your line is open.

Okay.

Aleem Gillani

Analyst · Sanford Bernstein. Your line is open.

And we’re expecting a substantial move from that. Remember our through the cycle expectation for charge-offs is 40 to 70, obviously we’re at a very strong point in the cycle. We’ve been below the bottom end of our range and our current expectation is that we’ll stay around that kind of a number in 2015.

John E. McDonald

Analyst · Sanford Bernstein. Your line is open.

Okay, and I think you said the same thing for the actual provision dollars as well?

Aleem Gillani

Analyst · Sanford Bernstein. Your line is open.

That’s exactly right. As we look at it today, with what we know today we would expect provision in 2015 to be right around where it was at 2014 obviously that change is quarter-to-quarter, as we review our portfolio and economic conditions, but as we look at it today I’d expect it to be right around the same kind of level.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Terry McEvoy of Sterne Agee. Your line is open.

Terry McEvoy

Analyst

Hi, thanks good morning.

Aleem Gillani

Analyst

Good morning.

Terry McEvoy

Analyst

In the past you’ve talked about a CRE heat map of the country could you just maybe discuss areas of strength in the fourth quarter in where you see the best growth opportunities in 2015?

Aleem Gillani

Analyst

Sure. When we think about sort of CRE if I would think about the portfolio maybe almost in some kind of sequence office, multifamily, warehouse, industrial and retail probably in that order sort of as a global basis. Office for us primarily concentrated top markets and top spaces, so it’s more about credit enhancement and positive part. And in large markets it has tended to perform well and be part of the growth. On the multifamily side it’s a little spottier and fairness I mean there is some markets that we do a lot of work with some markets where the absorption balance is just right. Globally it’s still okay, but their pockets were, we’ve gone from green to yellow in our map. And we are probably pulling back in a couple of places in multifamily. Warehouse and industrial is sort of just of waiting, I mean I think that’s coming back more slowly and we see selective pockets for us part of what’s happening with the east coast ports opportunities, we are starting to see that kind of investments, so you see some of the challenges with the west coast ports, you see the investments that have been made on the east coast. So there has been a lot of development and discussion and dialogue and I think we’re really well positioned long-term there. Retail is just - this would be a long time before it comes back, I mean I think that’s in a slower place that’s not where we have our primary emphasis.

Terry McEvoy

Analyst

And then just as a follow-up, the increase in the provision within wholesale banking in the prepared remarks you talked about taking a look at the energy portfolio, could you just maybe expand specifically on what you did in terms of a stress testing and the analysis around the potential risk there that contributed to that small uptick.

William H. Rogers

Analyst

Yes, Terry, we actually looked at our energy exposure from a bottoms up perspective, we’ve been going through the names, obviously this started in about mid December or so as the market move started to steepen. We looked at our largest energy exposures, accessed each one from a bottoms up perspective that process is on going and we also looked at our overall exposure from a qualitative perspective and decided that while it didn’t look like quantitatively we needed to make an adjustment, it would be prudent and appropriate for us to do so. So the increase in provision is in that context, we haven’t seen any stress amongst any of our clients in that portfolio so far, it’s still early, but we haven’t seen any yet, but we’re just trying to do the prudent thing and get ahead of what looks to be like a big move globally.

Aleem Gillani

Analyst

Brad, we have time for one more question I believe.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, sir. Our last question comes from Matt Burnell of Wells Fargo Securities. Your line is open.

Matthew Burnell

Analyst

Good morning gentlemen, just a couple of questions on mortgage. I noticed that production in the quarter was up about 20% year-over-year, I guess I’m just curious if you could give us a little more color on your outlook for that business particularly in the wake of what have been some far more attractive mortgage rates throughout most of your footprint over the last few weeks and any guesses as to how long that may last?

Aleem Gillani

Analyst

Yes, sequentially we’re up about 4% from third and the fourth quarter was - refi was about 40% to 50%, so it really wasn’t sort of the big refi part yet that’s fairly consistent with where we were, so we had seen sort of some core parts of our business. Now that been said, applications are completely different, applications are 60%, 70% plus kind of refi, the first couple of weeks in January. Particularly last few days have actually been quite good and so we are seeing the potential there. What I really like is where it’s coming from, so as you know, we invested in our consumer direct business, so to think more online our core retail business. So it’s coming from our markets, we’re keeping our correspondent business sort of at about 50%, so where it was at the fourth quarter and so where it is now. So it’s coming in our higher margin areas and we're able to balance that. I want to be careful about over projecting, you can get excited about a couple of weeks and you can extrapolate numbers and get some big numbers as a result of that but I feel good about where its coming from, I feel good about how we're positioned to take advantage of it and the last few days have been very good, people have responded. As you would imagine the denominator let's say for total refinance is smaller, I mean just as you continue to go through a declining rate cycle that happens, but those that are eligible seem to be active.

William H. Rogers

Analyst

Then Matt, I would add to that as you know we're a very good efficient and effective servicer and we’ve been adding to our servicing portfolio over the course of the year, if you look at sort of end of 2013 to end of 2014, we’ve added about $9 billion to our servicing portfolio and that’s generating a nice increase in servicing income for us as we take advantage of our competitive advantage.

Aleem Gillani

Analyst

And it is a good discussion too related to the efficiency ratio, so for example if this heats up a little more than we think. It could be slightly dilutive to our efficiency ratio and accretive to our earnings and we’ll make that trade right now. So that’s a good trade for us to make.

Matthew Burnell

Analyst

Just staying on the theme of fee revenues, just curious as to your outlook in the first quarter and if you have visibility a little further than that that would be helpful for the capital markets business. That obviously was quite a good performer. This quarter has been pretty good in the second half of 2014. Just curious given all the vitality in the markets right now what your outlook might be for the first quarter or first half in investment banking capital markets?

Aleem Gillani

Analyst

Yes, since you stretched it to the first half that will make it a little easier, because there is some volatility and certain markets are more active than others and clients are coming back and so reevaluating where they stand and what they want to do, but based on our pipeline they look great, our pipeline sort of continue that same momentum that we’ve had in the past. I just think by quarter-by-quarter its going to look potentially a little bit different, but based upon the investments we’ve made which I talked about earlier the pipeline the diversity of our mix and some parts that are actually starting small that have a much larger opportunity to growth, I don’t have any reason to be anything less than optimistic. I think we're going to continue on the same phase, it’s just going to be tricky quarter-by-quarter.

Ankur Vyas

Analyst

Brad, this concludes our call. Thanks to everyone for joining us today, and if you have any further questions, please feel free to contact the IR department.

Operator

Operator

Thank you for your participation on today's conference call. At this time, all parties may disconnect.