Earnings Labs

Solidion Technology Inc. (STI)

Q3 2008 Earnings Call· Thu, Oct 23, 2008

$4.36

-2.02%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Welcome to today’s SunTrust Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. I would now like introduce Mr. Steve Shriner, Director of Investor Relations.

Steve Shriner

Management

Welcome to SunTrust’s Third Quarter 2008 Earnings Conference call. Thanks for joining us. In addition to the press release, we’ve also provided a presentation that covers the topics we plan to address during our call today. Slide two outlines the contents which include updates on capital and liquidity, an overview of our financial results and an in depth credit review. Press release, presentation, and detailed financial schedules are available on our website www.SunTrust.com. Information can be accessed directly today by using the quick link on the SunTrust homepage entitled Third Quarter Earnings Release, or by going to the Investor Relations section of the website. With me today, among other members of our executive management team are Jim Wells, our CEO, Mark Chancy, our CFO and Tom Freeman, our Chief Risk and Credit Officer. Jim will start the call with today’s highlights and a review of capital. Mark will then discuss financial performance and Tom will conclude with an in depth review of asset quality. At the conclusion of the formal remarks well open the session for questions. Before we get started I need to remind you our comments today may include forward looking statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainty and actual results could differ materially. We list the factors that might cause actual results to differ materially in our press release and SEC filings, which are available on our website. Further, we do not intend to update any forward looking statements to reflect circumstances or events that occur after the date forward looking statements are made and we disclaim any responsibility to do so. During the call, we will discuss non-GAAP financial measures in talking about the company’s performance. You can find the reconciliation of these measures to GAAP financial measures in our press release and on our website. Finally, SunTrust is not responsible for and does not edit nor guarantee the accuracy of our earnings teleconference transcripts provided by third parties. The only authorized live and archived webcasts are located on our website. With that, let me turn it over to Jim.

Jim Wells

Management

There are a few items I’d like to review with you this morning and they’re attached on slide three of the presentation. This morning we reported earnings per share of $0.88 for the third quarter which maintained our track record of profitability. There were a number of non-core items with both positive and negative impacts during the quarter and Mark Chancy will guide you through the financials in a moment so I’ll only comment briefly. Looking past the non-core puts and takes revenue generation was stable. Our balance sheet, restructuring and deposit initiatives helped mitigate a consumer shift to higher cost deposits and the increased impact of non-performing assets on net interest income. Core non-interest income growth is positive despite a difficult environment in the mortgage and trust businesses. While I cannot tell you I am satisfied with our revenue performance it is gratifying to know that our efforts to grow and diversify this franchise are paying off especially given this most difficult environment. Our E² efficiency and productivity program is yielding significant expense savings and we’re pleased with how well managed core expenses have been excluding the non-interest expenses associated with credit. That said I do have to tell you that expense growth was too high even after adjusting for non-core items. The problem is non-interest costs inherent in the credit cycle. Particularly the abhorrently high cost at mortgage application fraud is inflicting on the industry and SunTrust. Moving on to some credit matters, net charge offs increased to 1.24% of loans while NPAs increased 24% to $3.7 billion in the quarter. Both of these outcomes were at the high end of the ranges we had anticipated. On the other hand our early stage delinquencies remain stable in the 1.5% range again this quarter. Additionally, the forward view of…

Mark Chancy

Management

I’ll begin my comments today on slide five of the earnings presentation with a brief discussion of our funding profile and our liquidity position. Our funding strategy remains primarily centered on stable deposits which fund 91% of loans. As a result of the balance sheet restructuring in the first half of last year which resulted in a de-leveraging of the balance sheet by approximately $9 billion SunTrust has reduced its brokered and foreign deposit levels significantly. At quarter end deposits from consumer and commercial clients comprised 88% of total deposits while only 12% were brokered or foreign. An additional benefit of the 2007 balance sheet restructuring was that SunTrust entered the market turmoil in the second half of last year in a very strong liquidity position which remains today. The average daily overnight borrowing position is down significantly coincident with a 25% decrease in the brokered and foreign deposits. The long term senior debt of the institution is also well laddered. A holding company note maturity of $350 million occurred earlier in October and the next holding company maturity does not occur until October of ’09. A final example of SunTrust’s strong liquidity position is that contingent liquidity from the Federal Reserve, the Home Loan Bank and free securities that could be sold if necessary all of those exceed $28 billion currently. Before I move on I’ll comment on a couple of other areas that may be of interest. Generally speaking the short term debt markets have been highly volatile over the past few weeks as you know. We have been fortunate however, that our three pillars asset backed Commercial Paper conduit has been able to fund on behalf of our commercial clients daily despite this liquidity crunch. Maturities have shortened as buying interest has largely been confined to overnight…

Tom Freeman

Management

This morning I’m going to provide a review of our credit situation beginning with an overview of the portfolio metrics on slide 15 of the presentation. The overall credit picture is a deterioration in the third quarter continued at a pace consistent with our expectations and market conditions. Net charge offs increase to $392 million or 124 basis points annualized. The increase in net charge-offs this quarter equates to just over 20% which is at the high end of the outlook we provided in July and consistent with the expectations in early September. You will recall that our second quarter charge offs came in at the low end of our expectations. Provision expense increased in the quarter to $504 million up from $448 million. The allowance ended the quarter at $1.9 billion or 154 bass points of loans outstanding. This is an increase of $112 million and an eight basis point increase in reserve ratio. The rate of growth in the allowance is lower than in prior quarters. Non-performing assets increased $717 million during the quarter to $3.7 billion. NPAs increased at a faster pace in the third quarter compared to the second quarter. The rate of growth in construction and commercial NPAs increased during the quarter in contrast to a slower growth rate in residential mortgage and home equity lines of credit. The growth in NPAs is due in part to time it takes to get through the foreclosure process particularly in judicial jurisdictions. Judicial foreclosure states have slowed the process and it can take from six months to well over a year to complete the foreclosure process. Our capacity to dispose of the assets once they are owned is satisfactory and well within our pricing expectations. We remain comfortable with our allowance relative to non-performers in part due…

Steve Shriner

Management

We’ve covered a lot today so before we take some questions I’ll quickly summarize key messages from the presentation that are included on slide 24. Tier 1 regulatory capital improved significantly 8.15%. We continue to have stable core deposit centric funding and a strong liquidity position. We have begun to see commercial loan growth and a recent up trend in deposits. Overall earnings are being negatively impacted by the underlying economic environment and credit. Asset quality deteriorated in line with expectations during the third quarter. As Tom just said our current credit outlook is for further deterioration in the near term with fourth quarter charge offs up approximately 20% from third quarter levels. Our Board has provided authorization to apply for a preferred stock sale under the TARP program. We are evaluating our overall capital structure and we’ll provide additional external communications as promptly as we can. Thank you very much for listening this morning. Operator we’re now ready to take some questions.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Brian Foran – Goldman Sachs. Brian Foran – Goldman Sachs: Early stage delinquencies have been flat at 1.5% in each of the past four quarters but NPAs are growing and the dollar volume of that growth is steadily increasing. I understand flow rates mathematically but conceptually what’s the disconnect between the early stage delinquency and NPA trends right now?

Tom Freeman

Management

The disconnect is fairly simple is our ability to gain control of the properties which have gone to delinquencies and charge off is really impacted by a slow down in our ability to foreclose on the properties. If we had normal flows and normal time frames that would be matching up much better and we’d be able to break down the inventory of what would then be owned real estate properties short of bulk selling notes which we think is not an economic option for the company we’ve got to fight this through the courts. We’re starting to pick up some velocity around that and it’s in some of our jurisdictions taking as long as 18 to 24 months to begin to get our hands on the properties. That’s really what the backup is. Brian Foran – Goldman Sachs: That would be Florida specifically?

Tom Freeman

Management

We have several states within the jurisdictions that we work with which are judicial foreclosure states. Those have been painfully slow. Brian Foran – Goldman Sachs: It sounded from the comments like you’re more open to cutting the dividend. I just want to make sure that’s the right interpretation. Its been somewhat surprising that there haven’t been more dividend cuts across the industry is there any focus or pressure from the regulators for the industry to rationalize dividends to hunker down for a more difficult environment.

Mark Chancy

Management

As we mentioned we are very pleased with our current regulatory capital position as well as our tangible equity to asset position. We are, because of the economic and credit environment as we move into 2009 thoroughly evaluating our capital structure in connection with that deterioration. We’re also authorized as we indicated this morning by our Board to evaluate the par capital program and we’re in the midst of that evaluation. Our overall capital structure will include the review of each of our current position, our dividend policy and the TARP program and when that evaluation is complete we’ll be back and communicate any results to the marketplace as promptly as possible. As far as any specific guidance by the regulators I really have no comment on that and can’t speculate about how they might be communicating with others within the industry. Brian Foran – Goldman Sachs: The cumulative mark to market on the debt is now over $600 million. Is there any opportunity to actually buy some of this debt to lock in that gain and prevent a situation where that reverts over time?

Mark Chancy

Management

Yes, that is one of the options that we’ve actually acted upon during the course of 2008 and it is one of the options that is available to us and we’re continuing to evaluate it. As you know it does not affect capital, is non-cash and is a reflection of the very volatile financial markets that we’re operating in. We’re real clear and transparent about the fact that that is a non-core gain that’s reflected in our earnings. That’s not something that we’re trying to incorporate as a core part of the company’s earnings. We do expect that it will reverse itself over time. SunTrust debt will revert as we mature back to the original spreads when it was issued and so that’s clearly an event over the next seven years but to your point there may be opportunities for us to pursue additional purchases of that debt and we’ll continue to evaluate it as we move forward.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Ed Najarian - Merrill Lynch.

Ed Najarian - Merrill Lynch

Analyst

You talked about accessing the TARP in terms of additional preferred equity. Could you give us some context on to the extent that you do add preferred equity issued to the Treasury that that would be essentially sit on the balance sheet and you would enhance your Tier 1 capital ratio and keep it at an elevated level or is there some opportunity to lever that or deploy it so that your Tier 1 ratio would stay in that 8% to 8.5% range and we could expect therefore some incremental earnings to come from that extra equity.

Mark Chancy

Management

Certainly if we were to actually pursue and issue the preferred stock we would be looking to deploy that in an appropriate manner as we move forward both through organic growth through potential purchases of different assets as well as pursuing acquisitions to the extent that they were accretive and strategically appropriate for SunTrust to pursue. We have a wide variety of methods that we could deploy that capital if management and the Board decided that was the appropriate course based on the terms and conditions that are still being evaluated by us and others across the marketplace. I would clearly expect for us to deploy that capital across each of the different mechanisms that I just outlined if the company were actually to issue the preferred stock.

Ed Najarian - Merrill Lynch

Analyst

We should not think about you going to say something around a 10% Tier 1 capital ratio and keeping it there for a while.

Mark Chancy

Management

If we were to issue the immediate impact would be, depending upon the dollar amount that we issued at a significant increase in our Tier 1 capital level. What I’m indicating is you shouldn’t expect for it to remain at that level over the long term because we wouldn’t take the capital down if we didn’t intend to deploy it. We are pleased, as we mentioned with our current capital position. We do not have, as Jim mentioned a deep need for incremental capital. We think that the program is an appropriate program for the industry and it provides strong institutions like SunTrust the ability to raise capital on a very cost effective basis and so we’re thoroughly evaluating it as you might expect.

Ed Najarian - Merrill Lynch

Analyst

I’m looking at your trading account profits of a positive $121 million. I think when I make all the adjustments I start with $121 million, I back out the $341 million on mark to market debt, I add back $173 million on the auction rate securities and I add back $137 million on the trade…

Mark Chancy

Management

Why don’t you just give Steve a call and he’ll walk you through those details.

Ed Najarian - Merrill Lynch

Analyst

I’m coming to a $90 million trading number on a net basis is that approximately accurate and if so what drove higher trading revenue this quarter.

Steve Shriner

Management

I can work you through the details but the bottom line is that trading line contains core business revenue derived primarily through our SunTrust Robinson Humphrey Investment Banking business. There’s a lot of core client revenue that runs through there including fixed interest rate risk management derivatives and other products but I’m happy to go in more detail on that later. That’s a high level answer.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Mike Mayo – Deutsche Bank. Mike Mayo – Deutsche Bank: On expenses you’re controlling what you can control but expenses were up a little bit, $149 million third quarter savings from E² and so annualized you’re at the $600 million run rate which is your ’09 target?

Mark Chancy

Management

Yes, that was the number that we realized. We mentioned that we’re not anticipating any additional increase in the fourth quarter so we’re on track for about $540 million or so during the course of 2008 and it gives us confidence as you mentioned that we should be able to meet or hopefully exceed the $600 million target that we set a couple of years ago. As you might expect in today’s environment our evaluation has not stopped. The environment has only poised us to do further evaluation of ways that we can become more cost effective in the way we operate our business and you can be assured that we’re continuing those efforts but we have no new information at this point to communicate. Mike Mayo – Deutsche Bank: At this point we shouldn’t assume any additional savings from E² from your current run rate but you’re working on perhaps new plans.

Mark Chancy

Management

Yes, correct we have ongoing initiatives that we’ve outlined in the past related to our supplier management as an example. Those efforts are continuing and to extent that we have new information for you as we move into 2009 we’ll provide it. Mike Mayo – Deutsche Bank: On credit quality, it looks like 12% of the portfolio is what you guys term distressed and that’s most of your charge offs. I want to focus on the rest of the portfolio specifically commercial. I think you mentioned small business I guess that got worse but still in a decent range. What else are you seeing in commercial between retailers and I guess even some restaurants are going chapter 11. What’s moving up on your watch list?

Tom Freeman

Management

What we’re seeing is our concerns are quite honestly right now are publishing which is showing some real signs of softness and continued fallout in the small business segment. We don’t have substantial retail exposures especially on a small granular level. Quite honestly other than the publishing part of the portfolio and one episodic incident in the energy book the rest of the portfolio is holding up fairly well. Mike Mayo – Deutsche Bank: What do you mean by publishing?

Tom Freeman

Management

Newspapers. Mike Mayo – Deutsche Bank: I just haven’t noticed any failing around, that I’ve noticed.

Tom Freeman

Management

We have. Mike Mayo – Deutsche Bank: That’s in the increase in commercial this quarter?

Tom Freeman

Management

Yes sir.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Betsy Graseck – Morgan Stanley. Betsy Graseck – Morgan Stanley: A couple questions on the credit side, one is on the reserving methodology I know you have a little bit of a different approach towards the reserving compared to peers and I think it has to do with how you estimate the recoverable value of the NPAs. Could you just refresh on how you are, interesting the expected recoverable value on the residential mortgages, where your inputs are coming from and how they have changed over the past quarter?

Tom Freeman

Management

I don’t believe our approach is different than what industry standard is. In fact we’re very careful to make sure our estimates are consistent with all of the GAAP guidance around documentation and estimation of current losses realizable, expected within the existing portfolio. That being said, I think you’re asking a slightly different question which is as we begin to get people into the collection queue for residential mortgages what do we do to estimate values upon ultimate recovery upon sale of the non-performing assets and I think that’s the question is that correct? Betsy Graseck – Morgan Stanley: Sure.

Tom Freeman

Management

What we do is at 120 days as is required by GAAP and FFIEC we put the loans on non-performing, non-accrual. We then commission appraisals and valuations of the individual properties, on a property by property basis. Then when we get the value in we take a haircut off of that by, it depends upon specific markets, about 15% overall. That becomes our carrying value for the underlying assets. Upon sale of the assets, and as we accumulate all of the performance around sale of the assets we re-estimate whether or not our haircut and valuation methodology was appropriate to make sure we’re recognizing the loss flows as they ought to be so we have a check and balance around that to make sure that our estimation process falls within a reasonable range and that we’re pretty tight on the estimate of losses. Betsy Graseck – Morgan Stanley: How has the loss come in relative to what you had been estimating?

Tom Freeman

Management

As we continue to a rolling evaluation we’ve seen softening of values. We’ve seen a lot of softening of values in the Florida market and we continue to make sure that on a daily, weekly and monthly basis that those estimates are current value estimates. We continue to see softness especially in Florida but we’re seeing softness around some of the other markets.

Mark Chancy

Management

One of the reasons why we provide this slide that we do in the presentation deck is as Tom mentioned when we get to 180 days we go ahead and incur a charge off against those non-performing loans even if they haven’t been disposed of because of the process. We note in that slide the level of non-performers that have already incurred a charge off and have been written down to what we expect to be realizable value based on current value estimates and that’s about two thirds of the non-performers that relate to that mortgage segment. Betsy Graseck – Morgan Stanley: As housing values continue to fall here we should anticipate that the reserving should move up to reflect that is that correct?

Tom Freeman

Management

The charge offs will continue to move up and then we’ll make sure, the reserving question we’re talking about charge offs not reserve. In the reserve process you also have to take a look at the mix and if you take a look at where we’ve taken a majority of the charge offs those were in closed in pools and those loopholes continue to shrink. As we evaluate any other emerging problems you’ll have a separate set of evaluations. Betsy Graseck – Morgan Stanley: A separate question on more the commercial side but given the foreign exchange volatility how are you assessing risks that you might have in your own commercial book?

Mark Chancy

Management

Could you repeat your question? Betsy Graseck – Morgan Stanley: On the commercial side there is some emerging stress in foreign exchange markets and I know while you don’t have much of an exposure outside the US I’m sure you deal with corporates who have exposure to foreign exchange revenue flows or may engage with you in foreign exchange hedging. I just wanted to understand what you may or may not be seeing in the commercial book in terms of new stresses relative to the foreign exchange volatility that’s been increasing here over the past several weeks.

Mark Chancy

Management

We have very minor exposure to foreign exchange swaps and trades it’s not a big number for us. As with any of our clients which are multi-jurisdictional and where you have multi-currency we do regular reviews, we do regular credit evaluations and we include into that the exposure specifically to foreign markets and in fact one of the things we’ve been paying a lot of attention to lately in our larger corporate clients has been the strengthening of the dollar and how that’s affecting their income flows in future periods.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Greg Ketron – Citigroup. Greg Ketron – Citigroup: On non-performing assets management you’re sitting on a portfolio of about $3.6 billion, I know you had mentioned that you felt that securing values in certain parts of the portfolio would be reflective of where you thought you could liquidate it. You’ve had a peer comment, during the quarter they sold about $430 million of non-performers during the quarter took about a 50% haircut related to where they were carrying it. In terms of color going forward how, maybe more focused on the construction segment how do you intend, or strategize around peering the size of that portfolio down as you move out into the future?

Tom Freeman

Management

You’ve got to remember that we started on the construction portfolio in ’06 and really have been restructuring, attacking the portfolio and if you take a look at it that portfolio is falling by about $1 billion a quarter. The construction portfolio I think we’ve got specific plans on, we have evaluations in terms of any of the ones which are troublesome we have a specific reserve process and quite honestly we’re doing restructures where appropriate, foreclosures where appropriate and dispositions. It is the most aggressive thing that we have been working through in terms of making sure that that portfolio continues to right size in looking forward at what kind of the economic activity is going to be. I think that portfolio when you look at our construction firms and our commercial construction activity will continue to downsize aggressively over the next couple of quarters. Greg Ketron – Citigroup: Taking a counter view here on the dividend and Mark probably more addressed to you. In terms of looking at the holding company you’ve got over $2 billion of cash and cash equivalents. The quarterly upstream from the banks about $330 million in dividends, you guys are earning right at that maybe slightly less but with TARP the potential of injecting $1 to almost $4 billion of cash into the holding company I know you’re working through this and its tough for you to comment on right now. Is it plausible or maybe you can add some color in how you would think about is it plausible that you keep the dividend at the current level because of the cash level you have at the holding company or potentially could have?

Mark Chancy

Management

Obviously we are evaluating all of the aspects that go into managing holding company liquidity, the dividend, and our overall capital structure and taking both our own information, the changes in the economic and credit landscape as well as the potential to access the Government program into consideration. As we work through that it’s something that has continued to move as you know with new information coming out on the Government programs on a daily basis and so we’re doing a careful evaluation as you would expect us to and we’re going to respond promptly as it relates to all the capital structure related items as soon as it makes sense to both us and our Board.

Operator

Operator

Your last question comes from Jefferson Harralson – KBW.

Jefferson Harralson - KBW

Analyst

I’m looking at page 21 this might be similar to Greg’s question. If you have, let’s call it 9% total NPAs in the construction portfolio or 14% NPLs of that middle part, the residential construction portfolio and we sort of live in a seemingly 50% on the dollar world. Help square that against the charge offs that seem to be running at less than 2%, it’s a way of asking of this $1.40 billion it seems like there would be a lot of loss content in that outside looking in maybe I’m missing something I wanted to ask you about how those two numbers square.

Tom Freeman

Management

If you take a look at the commercial part of the portfolio you’ve got to understand what the process is. Some of the losses will be realized upon recognition of events. We have made reserves which we believe are fully adequate to cover those losses but those losses are coming in future quarters.

Jefferson Harralson - KBW

Analyst

Did I miss it or how much is reserved against the $1.40 billion?

Tom Freeman

Management

What I can tell you is about 65% of the portfolio is covered by specific reserves.

Steve Shriner

Management

Thank you everybody for attending this morning.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today’s conference thank you for participating you may disconnect at this time.