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Stagwell Inc. (STGW)

Q4 2015 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 18, 2016

$6.71

-1.32%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to the MDC Partners Fourth Quarter and Year-End Results Conference Call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Please also note that today's event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference call over to Mr. Matt Chesler, Vice President of Investor Relations. Sir, please go ahead.

Matt Chesler - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Good afternoon and thank you for joining the MDC Partners 2015 fourth quarter and year-end conference call. On the call today from MDC are Chairman and CEO, Scott Kauffman; and CFO, David Doft. During the call, we'll refer to forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial data. As we all know, forward-looking statements about the company are subject to uncertainties referenced in the cautionary statement included in our earnings release and slide presentation, and are further detailed in the company's Form 10-K and subsequent SEC filings. For your reference, we posted an investor presentation to our website. We also refer you to this afternoon's press release and slide presentation for definitions, explanations, and reconciliations of non-GAAP financial data. And now to start the call, I'd like to turn it over to our Chairman and CEO, Scott Kauffman. Scott L. Kauffman - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Thank you, Matt, and good afternoon, everyone. We appreciate you taking the time to join us today. Before reviewing our results for the quarter and the year and previewing our goals for 2016, which we're excited to share with you today, I want to offer a few personal insights about my first month as CEO of MDC, and I'll state this as plainly as I can. We emerged from a tumultuous summer, firing on all cylinders and we didn't miss a beat. Now, I'm a huge believer in the power of grace under pressure, and I'm so proud of what our team achieved this past year, dedicated people who stayed focused, worked hard and always kept our mission top of mind. And because we have the right people in the right roles, we're well positioned to grow our business, win market share and increase shareholder value. The first thing you need to know is that we…

Operator

Operator

And our first question today comes from Bill Bird from FBR. Please go ahead with your question. Bill G. Bird - FBR Capital Markets & Co.: Great, thanks. I was wondering if you could just elaborate a little more on your organic growth outlook and whether you're seeing the volatility in financial markets translate to business on the ground at all? Thank you. David B. Doft - CFO, CAO & Head-Investor Relations: Sure. Thank you, Bill. So we're not blind to the headlines that are out there and the red screens that are often being seen on a daily basis with the financial markets. But you really need to separate that from what's going on both, I think, with the U.S. consumer and thus with it the opportunity for marketers to continue to grow and build market share. So we continue to see a commitment from our clients to invest behind their brands. We continue to see companies that are frustrated with their performance in the market, looking for new agencies, which is leading to our very strong new business pipeline. And that gives us confidence in our ability to deliver the organic growth rates that we put forth in our guidance. Bill G. Bird - FBR Capital Markets & Co.: Just to follow on, and appreciating that the lower pass-through revenues have no economic impact, do you expect lower pass-through revenue to persist again in 2016? David B. Doft - CFO, CAO & Head-Investor Relations: So it really started to kick-in in 3Q and 4Q, so our expectation is we cycle through a little bit of it in 1Q and 2Q just as we go through kind of the annualized impact of it. But on an annual basis, we don't think it will be as material in 2016. Bill…

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Tom Eagan from Telsey Advisory Group. Please go ahead with your question.

Thomas William Eagan - Telsey Advisory Group LLC

Analyst · your question.

Great. Thank you very much. A question on the media buying technology. To grow the media buying operations, is there any specific software that you need to license or buy? Any specific hit to the P&L or free cash flow? And then I have a follow-up. Thanks. David B. Doft - CFO, CAO & Head-Investor Relations: Our philosophy on technology is that we're a renter, not an owner, of tech. And there's a really, I think, good reason for that is that the innovation in the technology spaces that's happening so fast that as soon as you build something on a propriety basis, it's probably already obsolete given how much venture capital money is being invested in the space and all the businesses that are being launched with new solutions and more progressive solutions. And it's quickly commoditizing a lot of what was invented and developed a year ago, two years ago. And so as a renter it allows us to be a lot more nimble in terms of providing the best solution that's out there in the marketplace today. So we don't expect any investment in terms of proprietary technology from the media business in terms of what we're building. Our focus is very much on the front end in terms of strategy, on the back end in terms of analytics that will then reinforce or maybe change that strategy going forward. That's where the value is created and that's where we're going to make our living.

Thomas William Eagan - Telsey Advisory Group LLC

Analyst · your question.

Right. Okay. In terms of – secondly about the leverage you may have in growing global services, I realize it may depend on the country location. But given your hub structure, how much could you grow the global business in dollar amounts without having to add any kind of office space? David B. Doft - CFO, CAO & Head-Investor Relations: Well, the reality is we're a people business. So if we're growing and we're going to need to add people to service it and we're going to need to add space. So I want to be clear about that. Where our hub structure benefits us and it's something we call brands without borders, is that we don't need to open offices in every country around the world. And as our competitors historically built their global footprints, you had to do that, because you didn't have the benefit of technology, you didn't have the benefit of a globalized workforce where you could tap into people from many countries in some of the major cities around the world like New York, like Amsterdam, like London, which we can do. And so, sure, in those markets we'll expand and we'll add real estate as business comes in and as it warrants, but we don't need to have the inefficiency of real estate in every market. And the more time goes on and the more that we are able to compete for and win the sort of brands that Scott mentioned in his prepared remarks, the more confident we are that our approach and our strategy not only works but that it scales.

Thomas William Eagan - Telsey Advisory Group LLC

Analyst · your question.

Right. David, is there any way that you could quantify the margin of the overseas business versus the margin of the business at home? David B. Doft - CFO, CAO & Head-Investor Relations: So last year we talked about overseas being essentially breakeven, making a few pennies. This year overseas has moved towards kind of high single-digit sort of margins, so we made really good progress this year on that front. And we continue to believe that over the next few years, as we scale into it, the margins will rise towards the high-teens, 20% range that we see in the operating businesses in our more established markets.

Thomas William Eagan - Telsey Advisory Group LLC

Analyst · your question.

Great. Thank you. David B. Doft - CFO, CAO & Head-Investor Relations: You're welcome. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Peter Stabler from Wells Fargo Securities. Please go ahead with your question.

Peter C. Stabler - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst · your question.

Good afternoon. Thanks for taking the questions. A couple for David. I'm wondering if you could help us in the forecast, 90 bps to 150 bps of leverage through the year. Where primarily are you guys going to see that coming from, O&G or in the salary line? And then I got a couple of quick follow-ups. Thanks. David B. Doft - CFO, CAO & Head-Investor Relations: Sure. I know we've talked about this before. We don't materially differentiate in that way, because depending on the client contract, salary could fall in O&G or it could fall in cost of goods. But we do look at staff cost versus our other overhead cost. And this year, you will find in the 10-K actually a more detailed breakout of those sort of expense line items in table form as we continue to try to enhance our disclosures and transparency about the drivers of the business. That being said, we're a people business and the primary driver of our margin will be around leveraging our people or in corporate reducing some of our people with some of the moves we made last year. There is incremental leverage from other overhead items such as T&E spending, but the reality is that you'll see a big chunk of it in the people cost. And given the amount that will be from corporate, a lot of that will be in G&A.

Peter C. Stabler - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst · your question.

Okay, great. And then regarding the resegmentation or the removal of the segments, you offered us some color on SMS and PMS this quarter. Are you going to offer the same kind of color going forward or is that kind of the last look? And then lastly, I'm wondering of the $250 million that you guys are going to pay down in obligation payments, what is the sum for this year? And that's it for me. Thanks. David B. Doft - CFO, CAO & Head-Investor Relations: Sure. So that's the last look. Now that we have a different segment which is called the advertising and communications segment, we're obligated now to report with that segment going forward, but we just wanted to give you a sense. And as I said in my prepared remarks, we'll continue to give color of differentiated performance between disciplines, geography, et cetera, to help you understand the different moving parts of the business. So, by no means, are we looking to reduce transparency. We actually think this will help enhance transparency, especially with a more cleaner breakout of corporate as an isolated item versus before where services that work directly with our agencies were allocated into the segments, where now we're isolating them out so people can see the true aspect of the overall support function here at MDC. What was your second question? I'm sorry.

Peter C. Stabler - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst · your question.

Of the $250 million. David B. Doft - CFO, CAO & Head-Investor Relations: The $250 million, yes. So the $250 million, it's about half and half this year and next year is the reality. We're still finalizing some of the expectations for this year. As you know, a lot of it goes out in 2Q. But, for example, in 1Q we've already paid out $30 million of things that have come up and come due and 2Q should be about another $75 million or so from what we're looking at right now and the rest in the second half of the year.

Peter C. Stabler - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst · your question.

Thanks, David. David B. Doft - CFO, CAO & Head-Investor Relations: You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from James Dix from Wedbush Securities. Please go ahead with your question.

James G. Dix - Wedbush Securities, Inc.

Analyst · your question.

Thanks. Good afternoon, gentlemen. A couple financial geek-type questions and then maybe one or two more fundamental to the business. Just as you look to 2016, is there any particular phasing on the margin expansion that you would highlight? I know last year there was just because there was some build-out of infrastructure for some big client wins and you flagged that for us. I'm assuming there's nothing big in terms of seasonality. But if there's anything you'd highlight, I'd be interested in it. And then just one other financial one, I mean maybe this is for you, David. Maybe it's for both of you and Scott. I mean as your business grows larger, does your full year outlook and guide become something that's maybe a little bit less subject to quarterly revisions than when it was a smaller business? Or I'm just wondering how you might be thinking about that in terms of your full-year outlook, and then I have two follow-ups. David B. Doft - CFO, CAO & Head-Investor Relations: Okay. That second one was a little less geeky, James.

James G. Dix - Wedbush Securities, Inc.

Analyst · your question.

Okay. Yes. I'm trying to provide a segue. David B. Doft - CFO, CAO & Head-Investor Relations: Okay. So, in terms of margin phasing, you know we don't guide quarters. They're very lumpy, stuff moves around, and so I just want to get that out of the way. That being said, last year, our margin expansion was more prevalent in the second half as we began to move around some of the cost items and really – well, actually, more from the timing of revenue recognition where we had some delays into 3Q and 4Q and a little bit of catch-up, right. So that will reverse a little bit in 2016. But even with that 1Q is always the most lumpy quarter, the most volatile quarter just because it's the smallest and very small moves of revenue recognition or expense timing has a more abnormal impact on it. And so we're always going to hedge a little bit on 1Q. It's just our nature in terms of the margin expansion. But I surely would think that 2Q, 3Q will then begin to have a more meaningful pickup. In quarterly revisions, are you speaking to quarterly revisions of our guidance?

James G. Dix - Wedbush Securities, Inc.

Analyst · your question.

Yes. Exactly. As the business gets bigger, does it become something which maybe is a little bit last – should we be expecting that it maybe a little bit less subject to revision every quarter? David B. Doft - CFO, CAO & Head-Investor Relations: Our goal, frankly, is to give guidance once and that's it. We want to give as realistic a view as we can. We give you a number that we strongly believe we're going to make. But we also give a number that we have work to do to make. By no means should anyone think that we put out a lay-up in any way in terms of our guidance, but it's numbers we feel very strongly about. It's true there was a period of time for a year, maybe two years, where we raised guidance a couple of times during the year. I wouldn't expect that to be the norm, but I can't really predict. We're giving you a view of what we think our year is going to look like. If there's a material change to that, we'll come back to you.

James G. Dix - Wedbush Securities, Inc.

Analyst · your question.

Fair enough. And then my two others were – just any color you can give on the tone of new business and pitch activity. I know some in the industry had speculated that maybe after the big wave of attention to media pitches that there might be maybe a little bit more marketer focus on pitches outside the media discipline as we moved into 2016. Just wondering if you're seeing any of that. And then just on leverage, I think you might have first been talking about getting to 2.5 times or less within two years or three years, starting last year. So, I mean, is that something which we should be thinking about in terms of a 2017-2018 horizon? Just any other fine-tuning you can give on that because I know I get a bunch of questions especially in this environment from investors on just pathways to lower leverage, so it might be helpful. Thanks. Scott L. Kauffman - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Sure. So, James, I'll lead this off around the volume of activity on the new business front. It's as robust a January and February as I have ever seen, and we're firing on all cylinders. We've also substantially increased the corporate development function within MDC Partners. So we've got more tentacles out there in order to meet this increased capacity. But sometimes it's not even a pitch; sometimes it's a conversation that leads to incremental business. And we've got several instances now where one agency will pick up a piece of business of a multi-brand company, and the next thing we're back in there talking to other of their brands. It's a wonderful way to grow. We've got a situation right now where there are three agencies in a pitch for a piece of business.…

James G. Dix - Wedbush Securities, Inc.

Analyst · your question.

Great. Thanks very much. David B. Doft - CFO, CAO & Head-Investor Relations: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Dan Salmon from BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead with your question.

Daniel Salmon - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst · your question.

Hey. Good afternoon, guys. Two questions, one for Scott and maybe a quick one for David. Scott, could you just expand a little bit more on the process and the decision-making for your two new board directors? Just some obvious digital expertise and accounting expertise here, but maybe other things that we should be looking for where you think that they will be particularly beneficial to the board. And then just, David, a quick one, the new CPG client that Scott mentioned earlier, I'd assume that will be in the first quarter net new business number, and it's not in the fourth quarter one? David B. Doft - CFO, CAO & Head-Investor Relations: I'll take the second one first. That's the correct. It's a first quarter win. Scott L. Kauffman - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: And I'll take the first question, second. We announced last year that we would work with Spencer Stuart to materially enhance the diversity and expertise of our board. And these are the first two announcements with more to come as we indicated in our earlier remarks throughout the year. And Anne Marie as you know, we are a Canadian company and therefore 25% of our board members must be both residents and citizens of Canada. So that was a criteria. But where we're looking for financial expertise under Mike Kirby, who is in our board, and will be rolling off at the next proxy statement, is the current audit committee chair. So we wanted someone who could step into the audit committee in a very pronounced way. So financial expertise, governance and risk management were very important to us there and the fact that she's Canadian didn't hurt either. Larry Kramer, one of the pioneers of the Internet industry and digital marketing and media has a very strong background in content as well, which you'll hear a whole lot more about it in our industry going forward. This is a lot about narrative and storytelling and content development and creation and dissemination and having that entrepreneurial backbone as well is something that, I think, serves the DNA of this company extremely well. And then we still have our tentacles out for additional board members on corporate and management and organization and operations. So we've got a few more boxes to check, but we've been working with what I believe is the best search firm in the world for board work in Spencer Stuart and we will be making some additional announcements in the coming months.

Daniel Salmon - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst · your question.

Great. Thanks very much, Scott. And as a side note, yes, always good to have more Canadians around. Scott L. Kauffman - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Duly noted. Thanks, Dan.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Barry Lucas from Gabelli & Co. Please go ahead with your question. Barry L. Lucas - Gabelli & Company: Thank you and good afternoon. Got a couple and I'd like to come back to the media buying topic because in the past, I think especially in 2015, you indicated that with some of the really big pitches out there, you weren't – or MDC did not have the scale to really go after some of that business aggressively. So, where are we in that continuum at this point? When do you reach the inflection point for that to become a much more meaningful part of the business above 10%. Scott L. Kauffman - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Great question, Barry. And then given by background and first job ever in the world was in media planning, it was frustrating for me to see us sitting on the sidelines with $25 billion of business up for grabs this past summer, but at a scale that we couldn't effectively compete at. But with the combination now of the seven different disciplines within the MDC Partners family network that touch media in one form or another under the stewardship of Steve Farella and Martin Cass, we're pulling together all of those entities that will be physically located in a single place in New York City, and we think that's going to go a long way towards creating both the collaboration and the pooling of resources and the combining of disciplines, so that we can be much more effective going out to market. I don't think we're going to be competing for multi-billion dollar business right out of the gate, but we'll certainly be more in the hunt for some of this new business. I've been asked, and…

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Rich Tullo from Albert Fried & Co. Please go ahead with your question. Rich R. Tullo - Albert Fried & Co. LLC: Hey, guys. Congratulations, a very fine quarter, and thank you for taking my question. As we look at this deleverage, how should we be thinking about the parameters of the deleverage? I mean, is this going to be more of a factor of the growth in EBITDA or are you going to divert more of the cash generated from working capital as well as the free cash flow of the company? Is that more going to be directed at paying down actual debt? And then as an aside, is the dividend policy going to be reflected anywhere, influenced anywhere in all that? David B. Doft - CFO, CAO & Head-Investor Relations: Thank you, Rich. So the deleveraging will come – our expectation is from growing EBITDA, not from paying down debt. We're big believers on maintaining maximum liquidity especially in terms of potential volatile economic cycles and we've been in this economic expansion now for a few years. So we surely don't want to be looking to reduce our liquidity now. And so we're looking to EBITDA growth. And I just want to remind people that, the contingent obligations we talk about from deferred acquisition consideration are contingent on certain performance. And so, our expectation is that those businesses will generate the cash based on their performance to fund those earnouts. At the same time, if they underperform, those earnouts will come down and those businesses will still generate the cash to fund those earnouts. So from our standpoint, we like to keep the liquidity. It allows us to fund the growth of the business as well as the obligations going forward. And the underlying deleveraging will come as the EBITDA grows and the assumption with the estimated earnout is that EBITDA grows. Rich R. Tullo - Albert Fried & Co. LLC: A second question, if I might, we've been contemplating FX headwinds under certain circumstances as being flat to actually a tailwind in 2016. If that were the case, how would you deploy the 150 bps to 200 bps of incremental revenue and possible incremental cash flow generated by a more favorable FX environment? David B. Doft - CFO, CAO & Head-Investor Relations: Well, that's not a huge amount of money at the end of the day, so I don't think there'll be any special deployment we keep in mind. Hopefully, it'll lead us to beat expectations if that were the case. I hope you're correct on the FX environment. I think surely that'll be good for our numbers. But personally, I'd be a little surprised given that our FX exposure is predominantly Canada which continues to, I think, suffer from an economic standpoint from low oil prices and, thus, less demand for its currency. Rich R. Tullo - Albert Fried & Co. LLC: Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Tracy Young from Evercore ISI. Please go ahead with your question.

Tracy Young - Evercore ISI

Analyst · your question.

Yeah. Hi. Most of my questions have been answered. Just you gave some guidance or you gave some clarity on the legal fees. I realize you're not giving guidance for Q1, but should we expect some more legal fees running through Q1 as well? David B. Doft - CFO, CAO & Head-Investor Relations: Yes. We expect to continue to have legal fees, and hopefully it will stay at the lower levels that you saw in Q4.

Tracy Young - Evercore ISI

Analyst · your question.

Okay. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Peter Stabler from Wells Fargo Securities. Please go ahead with your question.

Peter C. Stabler - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst · your question.

Hey. Thanks for letting me take another one. David, CapEx guidance for 2016, can you offer us a view there? And then, just as a reminder, I'm sorry I missed this, what are you expecting revenue contribution from acquisition to be and if you offered a range on that? David B. Doft - CFO, CAO & Head-Investor Relations: Sure. So, CapEx, we're looking at $23 million to $25 million in 2016 at this point. We do have a couple of decent-sized office moves/expansion that are driving some of that on top of just normal maintenance CapEx. Still well within our normal 1.7% to 2.0% of revenue range that we've talked about, I think, for a number of years as a reasonable CapEx expectation. In the guidance for 2016, we included 1% incremental growth from acquisitions, and that's related to the acquisitions completed in 2015, but that we did not get the full-year benefit of. It does not include any estimated future acquisitions that have not happened.

Peter C. Stabler - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst · your question.

Thank you. Scott L. Kauffman - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

And, ladies and gentlemen, we've reached the end of the allotted time for today's question-and-answer session. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference call back over to management for any closing remarks. Scott L. Kauffman - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Thank you. So just a couple of final thoughts. We had a great year amid the noise. We hit our numbers, we won a lot of new business, and our pipeline is robust. We continue to extend our capabilities overseas and to advance our emerging media business. We added two new partners to the network, smart M&A, in areas of key strategic focus to the company. We added two new board members, making us better and more independent, and all the while, we maintained a disciplined financial stewardship. This is the formula for success that we'll continue to apply throughout 2016. So thanks again for your time today, and I look forward to speaking with you in the coming days and weeks. And in the meantime, we'll get back to work on building a prosperous 2016. Good evening from New York City.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's conference call. We do thank you for attending. You may now disconnect your telephone lines.