Paul Vasington
Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead
Thank you, Jeff. Key highlights for the fourth quarter, as shown on Slide 11 include revenue of $906.5 million, an increase of 7.1% from the fourth quarter of 2019. Organic revenue increased 5.3%, changes in foreign currency increased revenue by 1.8%. And sequentially from the third quarter, reported revenue increased 15% reflecting our strong response to the continued rebound in our markets. To recall that on January 8, we updated our revenue guidance for the fourth quarter. Throughout the quarter, we saw continued strengthening, especially with our global automotive heavy vehicle industrial end-markets. In addition to a revenue uplift from foreign exchange rate movements, and those contributed to the higher revenue performance in the quarter than we anticipated in late October. Adjusted operating income was $195.6 million, an increase of 1.6% compared to the fourth quarter of 2019, primarily due to higher revenues, savings from cost reduction programs, and favorable foreign currency, partially offset by elevated costs resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, higher incentive compensation aligned from improved financial performance and higher spend to support Megatrend growth initiatives. During the second quarter, you'll recall that we announced a series of actions to structurally reduce our semi variable costs by about 10%, achieve an expected $60 million to $65 million in annual savings. We achieved the target of $12 million savings from these programs in the fourth quarter and expect to achieve the full annualized savings starting in 2021. Adjusted net income was $134.7 million, a decrease of 4.9% compared to the fourth quarter 2019, largely due to higher interest expense from our new bond issuance during the third quarter of this year. Adjusted EPS was $0.85 in the fourth quarter, a decrease of 4.5% compared to the prior-year quarter. Now, I will discuss our performance by end-market in the fourth quarter of 2020 as outlined on Slide 12. Overall, we reported an organic revenue increase of 5.3% year-on-year, against an overall end-market decrease of approximately 2.4% representing market outgrowth of 770 basis points for Sensata. Our heavy vehicle off-road business posted organic revenue increase of 16.2% representing 990 basis points of outgrowth as compared to 6.3% end-market growth. In China, on-road truck business continued to post better than expected growth from accelerated adoption and VI emissions regulations. For the full-year 2020, we delivered 880 basis points of outgrowth in the heavy vehicle off-road business, higher than our long-term targeted range of 600 to 800 basis points. Our automotive business posted organic revenue increase of 4.4%. Automotive production remained at high-level during the quarter, creating broad supply chain challenges from our OEM customers worked on their inventory, which altogether created a 5.4% negative impact on our revenue. Our automotive business produced market outgrowth of 970 basis points in the fourth quarter led by continued new product launches in emissions, electrification and safety-related applications in systems. For the full-year 2020, we delivered automotive outgrowth of 690 basis points once again higher than our long-term target range of 400 to 600 basis points. Looking ahead, lower inventory levels at our automotive customers especially in North America sets us up well for strong growth in 2021. Our industrial business increased 7.7% organically with global industrial end markets return to growth in the quarter. Strong growth in heating, ventilation and air conditioning and 5G applications in addition to supply chain restocking benefit our industrial business. Our aerospace business decreased 24.8% organically reflecting reduced OEM production and much lower air traffic which has mainly impacted our aerospace aftermarket business from most of the year. New product launches primarily in the defense space, partially offset the significant aerospace market decline this quarter. Now I'd like to comment on the performance of our two business segments in the fourth quarter of 2020. Starting with Performance Sensing on Slide 13. Our Performance Sensing business reported revenues of $689 million, an increase of 8.9% compared to the same quarter last year. Excluding the positive impact from foreign currency of 2%, Performance Sensing organic revenue increased 6.9%. On a sequential basis, Performance Sensing revenue grew 18.6% in the third quarter, as customers maintained a high order rate through the quarter. Sequentially from the third quarter, our automotive business reported an increase of 17% and our heavy vehicle and off-road business reported increase of 23% demonstrating the accelerated rebound of both of these markets. Performance Sensing operating income was $185.1 million, an increase of 7.9% as compared to the same quarter last year, with operating margin of 26.9%. The increase in segment operating income was primarily due to higher revenue, savings and cost reduction actions and favorable foreign currency, somewhat offset by elevated costs caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Sequentially Performance Sensing generate incremental margin of 31% from a higher revenue, underscoring Sensata's profit potential associated with rebounding end-markets. As shown on Slide 14, Sensing Solutions reported revenues of $217.5 million in the fourth quarter of 2020, an increase of 1.7% as compared to the same quarter last year. Excluding the positive impact of foreign currency of 1.1%, Sensing Solutions organic revenue increased 0.6%. On a sequential basis, Sensing Solutions revenue grew 4.9% from the third quarter as customers ramped up production through the quarter. Sequentially from the third quarter, our industrial business reported an increase of 4% and our aerospace business reported increase of 11%. Sensing Solutions operating income was $70.7 million, an increase of 2.3% from the same quarter last year, with operating margin of 32.5%. The increase in segment operating income was primarily due to higher revenue, savings from cost reduction actions and favorable foreign currency somewhat offset by elevated costs related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Sequentially, Sensing Solutions generate very strong incremental margins from a higher revenue and from productivity gains. On Slide 15, corporate and other costs not included in segment operating income were $69.6 million in the fourth quarter 2020. Excluding charges added back to our non-GAAP results, corporate and other costs were $58.5 million, an increase of $12 million from the prior-quarter primarily due to higher global incentive compensation costs aligned to our improving financial performance and higher design business development spend to support our Megatrend growth initiatives somewhat offset by savings from cost reduction initiatives. Items added back to our non-GAAP corporate operating expenses include restructuring related and other costs, and financing and other transaction costs. Megatrend investments were $8.8 million during the fourth quarter, an increase of $1.5 million from the prior-year quarter. We currently expect approximately $50 million to $55 million in Megatrend related spend in 2021 to design and develop differentiated sensor rich and data insights solutions, venture new markets, develop new business models and design new product categories in fast growing and transformational megatrend vectors of electrification and Smart & Connected Solutions. Slide 16 shows Sensata's fourth quarter 2029 non-GAAP results. Adjusted operating income was up 1.6% compared to the same quarter last year. While adjusted operating margin decreased 110 basis points to 21.6% which is near the top of our peer group and represents an attractive operating income margin profile. The decrease in both adjusted gross margin and adjusted operating margin largely reflects the elevated costs we have experienced due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the related operating and productivity challenges. We acted early during the pandemic to reduce our cost structure, while continuing to invest in Megatrends and are shaping our end-markets that we believe will enable us to deliver long-term sustainable growth. Incentive compensation costs have also increased aligns with rising operating income as our end-markets recovered from the low point in the second quarter of 2020. Adjusted net income declined 4.9% compared to the same quarter last year. The decrease largely reflects higher interest expenses related to our bond issuance in the third quarter of this year and higher taxes due to jurisdictional profit mix. Finally, adjusted EPS was $0.85 down $0.04 to 4.5% as compared to the fourth quarter of 2019, as the decrease in adjusted net income was partially offset by the benefit in share repurchases in intervening periods. And as shown on Slide 17, we generated record $240 million in free cash flow during the fourth quarter, representing a 178% conversion rate of adjusted net income and finished the year with a 16-day reduction in inventory days on hand. This brings free cash flow generation of $453 million for the full-year, representing 130% conversion rate. For 2021, we expect free cash flow conversion of approximately 85%. Our capital expenditures for full-year 2020 were $107 million in line with guidance. For full-year 2021, we expect capital expenditures to be in the range of $160 million to $170 million on more normalized level as compared to 2020. Sensata's net debt-to-EBITDA ratio was 3.2 times at the end of December, which is within our target operating range of 2.5 to 3.5 times. During the first quarter of 2021, we have the opportunity to call-in $750 million of senior notes due in 2026, which pay 6.25% in annual interest. It is our intention to repay those notes later in the first quarter, reduce our interest expense and that assumption is built in to the financial guidance we're providing today. We're providing financial guidance for the first quarter of 2021, as shown on Slide 18. As a result of our improving economic conditions, and greater stability in customer order patterns, we expect to generate revenues between $875 million and $915 million for the first quarter of 2021, representing a reported revenue increase between 13% and 18% compared to the first quarter of 2020. At the mid-point of guidance, we expect that foreign currency will increase revenue year-over-year by approximately $17 million. Excluding the impact of foreign currency, we expect an organic revenue increase of 11% to 16% in the first quarter. You recall that we called out approximately $20 million to $25 million inventory that was built by our customers largely automotive OEMs in the first quarter of 2020. That inventory build now reverses and acts as a headwind year-over-year growth comparisons for the first quarter of 2021. Our current flow rate is approximately 93% of the revenue guidance mid-point for the first quarter. We continue to monitor leading economic indicators and third-party forecasts to help form our view of future demand. One headwind affecting our outlook is the expected impact of a global microchip shortage if the entire auto supply chain is currently experiencing that we expect to add 25 to 50 basis points to our operating costs in the first quarter. Including this expense, we expect to report adjusted operating income between $166 million to $182 million. At the mid-point, operating income margin is expected to be 20.2% excluding the impact of foreign exchange. On the bottom line we expect to report adjusted net income between $106 million and $122 million, which would represent an increase of 27% to 47% compared to the first quarter of 2020. We expect to report adjusted EPS between $0.67 and $0.77, which includes a $0.01 negative impact from foreign currency at the guidance mid-point. At the bottom of slide, we provided a margin walk, from the first quarter of 2020 to the first quarter of 2021. This includes expected impacts from the semiconductor shortage; increased COVID-related costs, increased incentive compensation for employees, increase Megatrend investments and the impact of foreign exchange. Sensata's core business is strong with 400 basis points of margin improvement expected from operating leverage on higher revenues and net productivity gains, including savings from cost reduction actions. Operating income margin reflects a very strong 40% incremental profit on the incremental revenue from the same period a year-ago. We're providing financial guidance for the full-year 2021 as shown on Slide 19. For the full-year 2021, while our degree of market uncertainty remains, we're planning for a continuation of recent rebounding economic and business conditions. Accordingly, we expect to generate revenues between $3.425 billion to $3.575 billion for the full-year 2021 representing reported revenue increase between 12% and 17% year-on-year. At the mid-point of guidance, we expect that foreign currency will increase revenue year-over-year by approximately $64 million. Excluding the impact of foreign currency, we expect an organic revenue increase of 10% to 15% in 2021. We expect to report adjusted operating income between $695 million and $755 million, which includes the expected impact of a global microchip shortage and expected 25 to 50 basis points cost for the first half of the year. At the mid-point, operating income margin is expected to be 20.9% excluding the impact of foreign exchange. On the bottom line, we expect to report adjusted net income between $488 million and $544 million which represented an increase of 40% to 56% compared to 2020. We expect to report adjusted EPS between $3.06 to $3.42 which includes a negligible impact in foreign currency at the guidance mid-point. At the bottom of the slide, we provided a margin walk from 2019 to 2021. We show a margin comparison to the three pandemic period, while fluctuating revenue has had the greatest impact on our operating income margins, COVID-related costs, incentive compensation for employees, Megatrends investments and foreign exchange have also had a meaningful impact on our operating income margin. Sensata's core business remain strong, and on a like-to-like basis, absent these additional costs, 2021's operating income margin would be higher than 2019 on similar revenue. On Slide 20, we provide our estimates for OEM production growth for 2021 as compared to 2020. North America automotive production is expected to rebound sharply this year, as the industry seeks to address record low inventory levels at the end of 2020. Global automotive production is expected to grow 13% on a revenue weighted basis. Moreover, all of our end-markets are expected to grow in 2021. And these assumptions underpin our outlook for strong revenue and earnings growth in the coming year. In sum, Sensata delivered an excellent financial finish in 2020, despite an extremely challenging environment throughout the year. We expect this strong performance to continue into 2021, as demonstrated by the financial guidance we're providing today. Driving this performance is our continued ability to achieve our growth targets, including a secular long-term market outgrowth target of 400 to 600 basis points for our automotive business, 600 to 800 basis points for heavy vehicle business. Now let me turn the call back over to Jeff for closing comments.