Paul Vasington
Analyst · Evercore. Please go ahead
Thank you, Jeff. Key highlights for the fourth quarter as shown on slide 10 include revenue of $846.7 million in the quarter, a decrease of point 0.1% from the fourth quarter of 2018. Changes in foreign currency decrease revenues by 0.3%. The acquisition of GIGAVAC increased revenues by 1%. The net result was 0.8% organic revenue decline a quarter.Adjusted operating income was $192.5 million in a quarter, a decrease of 8.4% compared to the fourth quarter of 2018 driven primarily by the decline in organic revenues, productivity headwinds, partially due to increasing new product launches, better design, and development effort to support new business win and megatrend growth initiatives and higher incentive compensation. These factors were somewhat offset by saving a repositioning action taken this year. Adjusted net income was $141.7 million, a quarter, a decrease of 10.1% compared to the prior year quarter. Adjusted EPS was $0.89 in the fourth quarter, a decrease of 6.3% compared to the prior quarter.Now I'd like to comment on the performance of our 2 business segments in the fourth quarter of 2019. I will start with Performance Sensing on slide 11. Performance Sensing reported revenues of $632.9 million for the fourth quarter, a decrease of 1% occurred to the same quarter last year, reflecting a negative impact from foreign currency of 0.3% in a positive impact on the acquisition of GIGAVAC of 0.6%. Excluding these factors Performance Sensing organic revenue decline 1.3% compared to the prior quarter. Our automotive business reported an organic revenue decline of 1.1% in the fourth quarter of 2019, but outpaced the end market by 490 basis points.Organic revenue growth in China was offset by organic revenue decline in North America and Europe. The GM strike reduced our fourth quarter revenues in North America by approximately $10 million, which was less than expected. Excluding the GM strike, our North American auto business delivered organic revenue growth in the quarter driven by high single-digit content growth. Our HVOR business reported in organic revenue decline about -- of 1.9% in the fourth quarter, far outpacing a 14% in market decline by 1,190 basis points, primarily due to strong content growth in our China on-road truck business.Performance Sensing operating income was $165.1 million, a decrease of 7% as compared to the prior year quarter and operating income as a percent of revenue was 26.1% in the fourth quarter, a decline of 170 basis points. The decline in segment operating income was due primarily to the declining organic revenue. Productivity headwinds partly due to increasing new product launches, and greater design and development effort to support new business wins in megatrend growth initiatives, somewhat offset by savings from restructuring actions.As shown on slide 12, Sensing Solutions reported revenues of $213.8 million in the fourth quarter, an increase of 2.3% as compared to the prior quarter. Organic revenue increased 0.7%, which excludes a negative impact on foreign currency of 0.4% and a positive impact on the acquisition of GIGAVAC of 2%. This increase was a result of double-digit organic growth in our aerospace business, driven by shorter content in a healthy end market partially offset by industrial market declines, albeit less significant than previously anticipated.Sensing Solutions operating income was $68.2 million in the fourth quarter, a decrease of 0.8% from the prior quarter. The slight decline and operating income was due primarily to productivity in foreign currency headwind, somewhat offset by savings from repositioning actions and the acquisition of GIGAVAC.Corporate and other costs not included in segment operating income were $52.3 million in the fourth quarter. Excluding charges added back to our non-GAAP results, corporate and other costs were $39.1 million in the fourth quarter of 2019, up approximately $5 million from the fourth quarter of 2018, primarily due to higher variable compensation and administrative costs.Slide 13 shows Sensata's fourth quarter 2019 non-GAAP results. Adjusted gross profit declined 4.5% year-over-year to $298 million and gross margins declined 160 basis points to 35.2%. The decline in gross profit and margin were primarily due to declining organic revenue, productivity headwinds partially related to increasing new product launches, higher variable compensation, and unstable foreign currency, somewhat offset by acquisition of GIGAVAC and savings from repositioning actions.R&D costs were 8.3% due primarily to increasing design and development effort. Support new business wins and investment in megatrend. SG&A cost increased 1% to the acquisition of GIGAVAC. Excluding the impact of GIGAVAC, SG&A cost were flat with the prior quarter as we align our cost structure to the lower revenues we are experiencing. As a result, adjusted operating income was down 8.4%, compared to the prior year quarter. Our tax rate shown on the slide as a percent of adjusted profit before tax was roughly flat, compared to the prior year. Finally adjusted EPS was down $0.06 or 6.3% as compared to the fourth quarter of 2018 as a decline in operating income was partially offset by the benefit of shared repurchases.Slide 14 shows Sensata's full-year 2019 non-GAAP results. Adjusted gross profit declined 5.4% year-over-year to $1.2 billion, and gross margins declined 130 basis points to 35%. The decline in gross profit in margin were primarily due to the decline in organic revenues, productivity headwinds parts related to increasingly product launches, the net impact from acquisitions and divestitures partially offset by stable foreign currency and lower variable compensation costs.R&D costs were $148.4 million or up 0.8% year-over-year as increases in design development efforts to support new business win and megatrend growth initiatives were mostly offset by the favorable impact of foreign currency. SG&A costs were $267.4 million or 8.6% lower year-over-year, due primarily to lower variable compensation and selling costs favorable foreign currency and cost savings from repositioning actions. As a result, adjusted operating income was down 5.6%, compared to the prior year. Our tax rate shown on the slide as a percent of adjusted profit before tax was up 40 basis points year-over-year to 8.6% in line with our guidance.Finally, adjusted EPS was down $0.09 or 2.5%, as compared to 2018 as a decline in operating income was mostly offset by the benefit of share repurchases. Free cash flow was $458.3 million during the year or 79.6% of adjusted net income, and exceeded a free cash flow guidance provided last October, net leverage at the end of the year at 2.8 times within our target range of 2.5 to 3.5 times.On slide 15, I show our financial guides for the first quarter of 2020, which includes our best estimate of the business impact related to the recent coronavirus outbreak, which is quickly changing and highly uncertain. Furthermore, it's very difficult to predict when the government imposed quarantines will end when travel restrictions will be lifted, when our plans will be fully operational and ultimate impact on end market demand.That said we estimate for both the first quarter and full-year '20 a $40 million revenue and a $20 million operating profit negative impact. The $20 million operating profit drop reflects the normal impact, unexpected loss revenue as well underutilized and stranded costs related to the sudden event. We continue to monitor the situation closely and we are doing everything possible to protect our employees and serve our customers. For the first quarter of 2020, we expect reported revenues between $793 million and $817 million representing a reported revenue client between 6% and 9%. At the midpoint of our guidance, we expect our foreign currency will decrease revenues year-over-year by approximately $5 million. Excluding the impact of foreign currency, we expected for inorganic revenue decline of 6% to 8% in the first quarter.Our current flow rate is approximately 93% of the revenue guidance midpoint for the first quarter, and reflects lower than normal production of our manufacturing sites in China, and reduced customer demand. We expect to report adjusted operating income between $149 million and $155 million 140. On the bottom line, we expect reported adjusted net income between $98 million and $104 million, which would represent a decline of 25% to 30%. We expect to report adjusted EPS between 62 and $0.66, which includes a $0.01 negative impact from foreign currency at guidance midpoint. Throughout 2019, we implemented significant restructuring actions to better align our costs to lower volumes we are experiencing.More recently, we announced the closing of our Carrickfergus plant in Northern Ireland to further optimize our manufacturing network and footprint. This action will result in approximately $7 million annualized savings. We expect this manufacturing plant to be fully shut down in early 2021, and expect to incur approximately $15 million in restructuring costs in 2020 to complete this closure. Looking forward, Northern Ireland will remain an important expanding R&D center for Sensata.Now, let me turn to our guidance for full-year 2020 shown on slide 16. For full-year 2020 we expect revenue between $3.4 billion and $3.5 billion, representing a range between a 1% decline in 1% growth. We expect foreign currency to decrease revenues by approximately $15 million. Excluding foreign currency or organic revenue gains represents a range between a 1% decline and 2% growth. We expect adjusting average income between $753 million and $781 million, which would represent a range between 1% and 4% decline.On the bottom line, we expect adjusted net income between $539 million and $555 million, and adjusted earnings per share between $3.42 and $3.58 for the full-year 2020, which represents the decline of 4% to growth of 1%. We expect foreign currency will have a $0.04 negative impact on EPS in 2020. Our EPS performance in 2020 reflects continued strong revenue growth out growth to our major end markets, which continued to decline, and in the case of China, significant market uncertainty as noted earlier in our prepared comments. Currently, we expect the effects of the coronavirus will reduce our EPS by $0.11, overall with all that occurring in the first quarter.With that said, we expect ongoing net productivity gains and savings for repositioning actions to fund our efforts to further strengthen our core business as well as expand our initiatives intersect promising new megatrend growth opportunities, most of them will be in the areas of electrification and smart connected. We expect that our adjusted tax rate will increase by approximately 100 basis points over 2019, and being a range of 9.8% for adjusted profit before tax. We expect to generate free cash flow of approximately $430 million to $470 million. This free cash flow guidance assumes annual capital expenditures of approximate $165 million to $275 million for the full-year 2020.At our Investor Day in 2017, we shared with investors a three year financial plan. Since then, we have achieved a number of critical objectives, such as accelerating content growth over that period and creating greater flexibility in deploying capital. However, with our current 2020 guidance, we expect the fall short of our revenue earning in cash flow targets. First, our end markets have weakened significantly below the market growth assumptions embedded in our three year projections. This end market weakness will result in nearly $425 million less revenue over the three-year period than originally expected. Second, we divested a profitable, but very slow growing non-strategic business in valves, and purchased a small, but very fast growing business in GIGAVAC, which is critical to our electrification growth platform. These two factors combined with lower than expected productivity gains, mostly due to lower volume are the main contributors to our expected shortfall to work for your targets.On slide 17, our expectations regarding most of our major end markets in 2020, which all continue to perform. We expect another difficult end market environment in 2020. But overall, we expect less of a headwind from our end markets in 2020 due to modest improvement in the global auto and industrial markets, somewhat offset by a weaker HVOR end market.Now I'd like to turn the call back over to Joshua.