Brian Lawlor
Analyst · Guggenheim Securities. Please go ahead
Curry, its Brian. You got a lot there. Obviously we had a really good quarter and second quarter with our political double, what it have been four years ago which has led us to put out a pretty optimistic number of plus 20% for third. Obviously we haven't yet forecasted fourth and I think you're right, is there a change to go over 20% and get some run absolutely. At the end of the day, it really is going to depend on how these primary's end up, at least we got a couple big primaries in the third quarter and then most importantly what stays competitive. So all the way through fourth, if our races can stay within a couple points of each other. I think we have real good opportunity for very strong year. As we saw in 2016, though if some races start to move between five or six points in any given state that money moves. The outside money moves to other markets where things remain competitive. Right now we're really well positioned. We have 12 senate races and as we look at it about seven of them. We think are really competitive. Arizona and Tennessee are open seats, so those are, how they contested. And then Nelson seat is up in Florida, McCaskill seats up in Missouri. Donnelly in Indiana, Heller in Nevada. All of those are very active as well as Sherrod Brown seat in Ohio. So seven very active races right now for this senate and if they stay close, we think they'll be well funded all the way through. But there's always the chance that one of these two starts move five, six, seven points difference. There is enough across the country, that money then moves to closer more competitive races. On the Governor's front we have 16 races, really seven of them again. Are very active at this point. Five of them are just toss ups. Four of them, Florida, Michigan, Nevada and Ohio. There is no incumbent, so they're open and then the Iowa race with Reynolds a very competitive. Real seven open seat in Colorado and Scott Walkers seat in Wisconsin is going to be very competitive. So in the senate and governor, we have seven really competitive races in each. And then just handicapping the house because currently lastly I checked a little over 100 congressional districts considered competitive. I think that will shrink. I don't know 65 to 75 somewhere, but even if it shrinks to that, that's double the last two cycles. So what we're seeing right now is the NRCC, the DCC. They're well-funded. They're laying in base buys. Toward the election kind of early fourth quarter. We're also seeing a high level of new third party super packs come in. so I think we're expecting those final ballot [ph] ground districts to be identified by late September and then I think we'll have a real good feel. At this point, 100 races that are really competitive we are in over 20 of them. So I think our footprint is really good, but at the end of the day. I think our biggest market as I just look across with all this activity going on. I think Detroit, Las Vegas, Tampa and West Palm will probably be our big four political markets. Tampa really looks. Tampa and Las Vegas looked to be very active, all the way through the end. So I know you asked you a lot, I think I gave you a lot. You get everything you need.