Karen Colonias
Analyst · CJS Securities. Please proceed with your question
Thanks Kim and good afternoon everyone. We had a solid third quarter, with consolidated net sales of 13.6% year-over-year to $262.5 million, partially due to our recent acquisitions, driving growth in Europe, as well as increased sales volumes and average net sales unit prices in North America. As a reminder, based on our internal correlation assessment of our SKUs in relation to single and multifamily houses, we believe U.S. housing starts are a leading indicator for roughly 60% of our business. We continue to believe U.S. housing starts should improve at mid-single digit rate annually over the next few years, which is a positive indicator for our business. In regard to the recent hurricanes and fires, we are thankful that none of our locations in the affected areas were negatively impacted by these disasters. Our thoughts and prayers remain with our employees, who have suffered personal losses and with all the victims of these tragic events. We will be ready to support these communities, as they rebuild. Now I'd like to turn toward our primary focus for today's call. Following my prepared remarks, our CFO, Brian Magstadt, will walk you through our third quarter 2017 financials in greater detail. Please note, that a supplemental slide presentation accompanying today's call has been posted on the Investor Relations section of our web site at simpsonmfg.com. Today, we will focus on a discussion of both our near and long term objectives, which I will refer to as our 2020 plan, as outlined in today's earnings press release. We believe our execution on these objectives will create substantial value for all shareholders of Simpson Manufacturing Company. Throughout the past decade, our company has undergone a lot of change, including leadership transition and the passing of our founder, Barclay Simpson. One thing that has not changed however, has been our unwavering focus on our core business and unique differentiators, that make Simpson a strong company that it is today. We believe our ability to achieve industry leading margins from a gross profit and operating income standpoint is due to the high level of value added services that we provide to our customers. As we stated before, aside from our strong brand recognition and trusted reputation, Simpson is unique, due to our extensive product testing capabilities at our state-of-the-art test lab, strong customer support and education for engineers, builders and contractors, deep 40 year plus relationships with engineers that get our product specified on the blueprints and pull through to the job site. Product availability with delivery in typically 24 hours or less and an active involvement with code officials to improve building codes and construction practices. On our last call, we outlined a detailed explanation of our key growth initiatives, as well as the strategy behind them. As a reminder, these growth initiatives include increasing our market share and profitability in Europe, growing our share in the concrete space and continuing to developed our truss software to support our core wood product offering. We believe these initiatives are crucial to not only offer a more complete solution to our customers and bolster our sales of core wood connector products, but also to mitigate the cyclicality of the U.S. housing market. Increasing our market share in Europe, helps us mitigate exposure to U.S. housing starts, which have historically experienced lengthy peak-to-peak cycles, ranging from 10 to 17 years. At 12 years into the current cycle, we are still far below peak, at only a little over half of the housing starts compared to 2005. The most recent U.S. downturn would have been more detrimental to our business, had we not had exposure to other performing areas, such as product lines in concrete, fasteners and operations in Europe. In 2006, until the bottom of the decline in 2009, our revenue decreased 30%. However, with other diversified product lines, we believe it would have declined by nearly 45% and that our business, as depicted on the chart on slide 4, would have more closely paralleled the drastic decline in the U.S. housing starts. We remain committed to positioning Simpson for long term sustainable and increasingly profitable growth. That said, we acknowledge that our pursuit of our growth initiatives has contributed to suboptimal operating leverage in our consolidated financial results. In light of this, we recognize the need to provide additional transparency into our strategic plan and financial objectives, which we will begin to do so today. So with that, I'd like to spend this time to unveil our 2020 plan, as well as our path to achieve our anticipated goals. Simpson's 2020 plan is centered on three key operational objectives. First, a continued focus on organic growth. Second, rationalizing our cost structure, to improve company-wide profitability. And third, improving working capital management and balance sheet discipline. Through execution on the 2020 plan, we believe these objectives will substantially enhance a return on invested capital from 10.5% in 2016 to a range of 17% to 18% by 2020. In addition, we plan to more aggressively return capital to shareholders to optimize value creation and reward them for their confidence in Simpson. If we are not on track to meet the 2020 financial targets we are putting forth today, we will take more aggressive action, particularly as it relates to our strategic initiatives. Beginning with organic growth, while we have emphasized acquisitions as part of a dual fold approach to growth in the past, we would be more transparent and focused in our go forward strategy, with a strong bias towards organic growth, supported by strategic capital investments in the business. As such, we will deemphasize acquisitions activities going forward, especially as it relates to the concrete space. An exception may occur, if the right opportunity were to arise in our core fastener space, which is the particular area where we believe it will be beneficial to gain additional production capacity to support our wood business. Given the strategy, we expect to achieve an organic compound annual growth rate for our consolidated net sales of approximately 8% from our reported 2016 [ph] net sales of $861 million through 2020. Our target net sales, compounded annual growth rate, includes the assumption of steady organic growth in North America, with the expectation that U.S. housing starts should continue to improve at mid-single digit rate on an annual basis, as well as the previously announced $30 million opportunity for our mechanical anchor product line in the Home Depot. Further, we anticipate steady topline growth in Europe, driven by improved economic conditions and our focus on complete product offerings of connectors and fasteners in the Nordic and Western European markets. Further, our top line growth expectations include the assumption of increase in our concrete market share. In order to achieve this, we are reprioritizing our efforts in the concrete space, by focusing on higher margin product lines to help drive profitability. As a result, we made a strategic decision to cease development of our concrete repair lines, with the exception of bridge and marine repair products. This will shift our addressable market opportunity down from $3.5 billion to approximately $1.3 billion. We plan to grow our current approximate 10% share of this $1.3 billion addressable market to approximately 14% by 2020. The six key areas comprise our focused addressable market include light framed construction, retrofit, waste water treatment plants, direct to OEM, commercial cold-formed steel and bridge and marine repair. These product lines are all higher margin and align well with our core competencies, to best leverage our resources. Our second objective involves rationalizing our cost structure, to improve our total operating expenses as a percent of net sales, from 31.8% reported at the end of 2016 to a range of 26% to 27% by the end of 2020, reflecting an improvement of approximately 530 basis points at the midpoint. As a result, we expect to improve our already industry leading consolidated operating income margin from 16.2% in 2016 to a range of 21% to 22% by 2020. Moreover, we are expecting to hire a leading management consultant in the near term to take a fresh look at the business, and identify additional potential opportunities for cost savings. If we find additional opportunities for savings, we are committed to further improving our targets. In order to obtain this improved operating leverage, aside from top line growth, we will aggressively manage our total 2018 operating expenses to be less than the 2017 levels, in terms of absolute dollars. Excluding planned SAP implementation costs, our projected 2018 operating expenses will be reduced by approximately $8 million from 2017. We will implement this through a combination of zero-based budgeting and maintaining our headcount at a net neutral, adding employees where it makes sense to support our growth and reducing where applicable. We believe these actions will bring our total operating expenses as a percent of net sales down to the mid-29% level for 2018. In Europe, we plan to reduce total operating expense dollars in 2018 by $2 million through reductions in both headcount and other administrative expenses. As such, we are targeting an improvement in our operating income margin from 0.8% reported in 2016 to a range of 7% to 8% in 2018 and reaching 12% by 2020. Separately, we also divested Gbo Poland and plan to complete the divestiture of Gbo Romania this week. The sale of Gbo Poland, which closed on September 29, for a total of $10 million, resulted in a gain of $0.4 million. The sale of Gbo Romania is expected to close on October 31, for a minimal amount with no significant gain or loss. For the nine months ended September 30, 2017, Gbo Poland and Gbo Romania contributed $12.6 million of the total $35.2 million of acquired net sales. While we retain our Gbo operations in Norway and Sweden, we have chosen to divest of the operations in Poland and Romania, as the fastener products produced at these locations do not fit our market strategy. We believe this action will help us now and improve our focus on fasteners in Europe, to mainly the Nordic region and Western Europe, where we are best positioned to grow our market share. In our concrete business, we expect our gross profit margin to improve from 34.8% reported in 2016 to a range of 38% to 39% in 2018 and to over 42% by 2020. To that end, we anticipated $3 million reduction in total operating expenses but [ph] concrete in 2018, by no longer allocating dollars towards expanding our repair line of business, as well as through reductions to headcount and other professional services. Offsetting these reductions will be our continued investment in our truss software initiative of approximately $8 million per year, in addition to approximately $30 million to $34 million of spending through 2020 associated with our ongoing SAP implementation project, some of which will be capitalized. Our investments in software will continue, given its strategic importance. Without a truss offering specifically, we believe a meaningful portion of our market share in our core wood connector business will be at risk, as we may lose customers who value a bundled solution for all of their wood products and software needs. With the acquisition of CG Visions earlier this year, we gained additional expertise and resources to offer software solutions and services to both builders and lumber building material dealers. Further, CG Visions enables us to support ongoing development of integrated software component solutions to the industry. The absence of a software solution leaves our wood business highly vulnerable, as it is viewed as a critical component for builders to complete projects as efficiently and cost effectively as possible. Further, our competitors have ramped up efforts to cannibalize wood product sales by bundling software solutions, oftentimes at a discount or free of charge. Over 40% of our core connector business is tied to customers who require software. We have identified 35 accounts today, that we believe are at high risk of loss, if we were not offering a software solution to complement their purchases of wood connectors, fasteners and truss plates. Due to the increased sophistication of our software capabilities and solutions,, in 2018, we will begin focusing our efforts, primarily on converting medium sized component manufacture customers, who have roughly $200,000 to $700,000 in annual sales, while continuing to support the smaller component manufacturers we have already converted. We believe these small and medium component manufacturers represent over 40% of the truss market, and our ability to provide software solutions to these customers is critical to preserve and grow our core connector business. Our annual $8 million expense for truss R&D will be partially offset by our decision to consolidate our primary truss manufacturing facility, with existing manufacturing capacity. By the first quarter of 2018, we expect to have moved all the manufacturing activity for truss plates into our wood connector manufacturing plants. When completed, we expect to reduce our cost of sales by approximately $2 million annually. This action will not only help improve efficiency and lower cost and our manufacturing footprint, but it will also reduce freight time to move truss plates to our end customers. Our SAP implementation project has been progressing on-track and on budget. As previously discussed, this project will improve business analytics, inventory management, purchasing, as well as enhanced overall productivity. This multiyear project which began in 2016 will continue through 2019 in a series of four phases. When we entered the second phase in 2018, we estimate roughly $7 million to $8 million, including amortization of capitalized SAP costs, will be expensed for the year, which is up considerably from this year and 2016, as much of the activity to-date has involved pre-implementation configuration costs, which have been capitalized. Configuration will continue in 2018, as well as initial sites going live, and will require extensive training, which will be expensed as incurred. In 2019 and 2020, we estimate the associated expenses, including amortization of capitalized SAP costs, will approximately be $10 million and $4 million respectively. While Simpson maintains industry leading gross margins and operating margins, we believe we can more tightly manage our costs to drive further reductions in operating expenses. We believe that these goals represent targets that are aggressive, yet achievable, based on bottoms-up evaluations of our cost structure, in light of the support needed to maintain a superior gross margin profile, and accelerate our organic growth. However, in an effort to help us drive further improvements beyond our current 2020 plan, we intend to hire an external management consultant to perform an independent in-depth analysis of our operations, in an effort to identify additional opportunities, to enhance our operating efficiency. This engagement will allow us to benefit from their broad expertise and to benchmark our operations against our peers on a more granular level than we have done in the past. We look forward to benefitting from their expertise, and providing additional information to our shareholders in the coming months. Turning to our third objective, we will improve our working capital management and overall balance sheet discipline to reducing inventory, as well as other initiatives to improve our working capital, including payables and receivables. Through our near term focus on inventory, we have established an internal team to help better manage inventory levels, without impacting our competitive edge in regards to product availability standards, as a significant amount of our customers rely on receiving products in 24 hours or less, and we believe in part, allow us to earn above median gross margins. As a first step to reduce our inventory, we have identified approximately 25% to 30% of our SKUs we will be eliminating. We will eliminate two-thirds of these SKUs immediately, with the remaining one-third to be phased out over a transition time to meet customer need. In addition, through the implementation of our ERP system by 2019, we plan to further improve our management of inventory and purchasing practices, to enhanced operating efficiencies. Further, we estimate we have room for an additional reduction of approximately 30% of our current raw materials and finished goods over the next three years, without impacting our day-to-day production and shipping procedures. To ensure our facilities are run as efficiently as possible, we have engaged an additional external consultant, who specializes in lean principles, to ensure proper execution on this front, and to identify further ways to improve our inventory management. As a result, we expect to improve our inventory turn rate from the current of two times to four times by 2020. While we believe this inventory turn rate is significant improvement from our current rate, we will update shareholders at the appropriate time, regarding the findings of the external consultant, that we have engaged to review our operations. Lastly, our previous discussed plans to move some of our high volume connector production out of our plant in Riverside, California, to our other three connector manufacturing locations, in an effort to ensure we are operating as cost effectively as we can, has been completed. We were able to complete this endeavor one year ahead of schedule, in order to support our goal of 75% utilization on two full shifts at our U.S. connector manufacturing facilities, for future volume increases, without the need for additional incremental equipment. At today's sales levels, we are tracking at 60% utilization, which is up from 45% when we began this initiative. As discussed through the execution on the 2020 plan, we expect to be in a position to achieve a return on invested capital target of approximately 17% to 18% by 2020. As demonstrated on slide 15, this highlighted the critical components we will manage to achieve an improvement in our ROIC. Before I wrap up, I want to comment on our capital allocation strategy. We have a strong financial position, which affords us flexibility to continue investing in our long term strategy, to drive shareholder value, while simultaneously returning capital to our stockholders. As we have communicated previously, we remain committed to returning 50% of our cash flow from operations to stockholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases. During the quarter, we paid out $9.9 million in quarterly cash dividend and received approximately 36,000 shares as part of our 20 million accelerated share repurchase program. As of September 30, 2017, we had $201.5 million remaining for repurchases under our extended $275 million authorization by December 31, 2018. As we are confident, our execution on the 2020 plan will drive improved operational performance in our business, we plan to be more aggressive in repurchasing shares of our stock in the near future. Longer term, we intend to use the proceeds from our inventory reduction efforts and any additional balance sheet efficiency improvements towards share repurchases. To fund share repurchases beyond those enabled by our strong operating cash flow, we will be reviewing other owned real estate properties for potential sale or leaseback opportunities in the future. Beyond this, we will consider any benefit we may receive in the event of a tax repatriation holiday, or potential corporate rate reduction, as further funds for share repurchase. In summary, we are pleased to be able to share with our strategic plan going forward, as well as provide additional transparency around the operational drivers behind our financial targets. As it is a 2020 plan, we will provide updates and benchmarks along the way, to keep you informed on the execution of our growth initiatives and plans. As discussed, if we are not on track to meet these targets by 2020, we will take more aggressive action in the future. Here at Simpson, we are confident in our ability to remain an innovator in the industry, while providing best-in-class service to our customers, and generating value for our shareholders. We'd like to thank our shareholders for their continued support of Simpson, and look forward to updating you on our progress over the coming quarters. I'd now like to turn the call over to Brian, who will discuss our third quarter financial results in more detail.