John Pollok
Analyst · KBW. Please go ahead
Sure, Catherine. This is John. I'm going to start. I think the answer – I'm going to start with the answer and then talk about some of the detail. Our margin kind of ex-accretable yield, I feel like you're clearly seeing some stability there. I think on the funding cost side, with the lack of rate hikes that we're seeing now, we're going to see some stability in funding. That doesn't mean there still won't be some catch up. As you know, we grew deposits 9.5%. So, we're out chasing a lot of really good relationships. And then, ultimately, I think you're going to begin to see our net interest income grow. So, if you kind of go back to slide number 5, I think that's a really good place to start. And you kind of look at the first quarter of 2019, we had about $123 million of net interest income. And as you know, the accretion made up a little bit over $9 million of that. If you go back to the first quarter of 2018, so if you kind of go to the left-hand side of the slide, we had $129 million of net interest income, but we had accretion of a little over $14 million. So, if you think about the core, back to the beginning of your question is we're seeing pretty good stability in that core net interest income dollars. So, I feel really good about that. As you know, we're chasing good deposits. And, clearly, good deposits with – what we're doing in the middle market space, it's competitive, but clearly those lead to a lot of good loans. And so, I think if you think about our strategy over the years, Catherine, is go after good deposits, continue to grow that. It clearly, clearly leads to good loans. As I mentioned earlier, the lack of the rate hikes, I do think, brings stability to funding. But as you know, we're building this middle market commercial bank. We've built our treasury platform, we've gotten past all those conversions. So, we're out generating a lot of business. so, we want to be opportunistic clearly on the deposit side. If you shift to slide number 6, which is the next slide in the deck, I think that's the next place you have to go as you think about our margin and the funding that you mentioned. And so, when you look at this and you go over to the right-hand side of the page, clearly, we've done some things. We took our short-term investments up about $475 million at period-end. And if we keep these funds more in the investment portfolio, not able to put them over in the loan side initially, that will probably have about a 10 basis point impact on the core margin. The other thing we've done, obviously, is we've been very participatory in buybacks. Clearly, that has – from a cash need, we've needed more cash. I think as we mentioned in the release, we continue to see systematic repurchases in the future. If you also shift and think about, all right, we'll look at the loan growth, as Robert mentioned, we had right below 5% loan growth. That was a pretty solid quarter, I think for the first part of the year and you typically see some seasonality. But I think our long-term view has always been, after a period of M&A, first, we've got to get the balance sheet the way we want. We've got to get back to mid-single digit loan growth. And as you know, in our longer-term targets, we would like that to grow higher. We're out of integration mode. So, we're really focused on the customer and I feel really good about the loan pipeline. We had a lot of discussion last year about the remix of the balance sheet. Well, the remixing is done. We've done all of that. That doesn't mean we don't have some larger construction and CRE payouts. I think you're seeing that throughout the industry. So, you continue to see that. And as you know, we're chasing bigger relationships, and that surely has created a little bit more volatility, both on the loan and the deposit side. And then, finally, I think you've got to look at the interest rate environment. And, clearly, I guess I was fooled four years in a row thinking the 10-year was going to stay above 3%. It didn't happen again. And so, we saw a very unusual opportunity in the quarter with the inverted yield curve to really harvest some of the optionality from our balance sheet. We went out and borrowed this $500 million and put a synthetic hedge on it and we really were able to lock in, what I would say, shorter-term funding costs out a little bit further, four, five years. And so, our focus right now is to get that deployed, some in the investment portfolio in the short term, but, clearly, we've got tremendous amount of loan opportunities. In fact, Catherine, if rates stay where they are today, once we've deployed this, I could see us going in and doing another one of these transactions to boost liquidity. So, I feel really good where we are. I think that we've bottomed out on the margin, and so I really feel good about the increase. And then the last thing I would mention is, if you turn to slide number 7, as Robert mentioned in his comments, just the accretable yield. The accretable yield as a percentage of total interest income has come down significantly. We continue to see that. I think the caveat there is, is once you get into the CECL world, our belief is you're going to see an increase in accretable yield on the front end. So, it might put a few more dollars into that bucket. But, Catherine, I think I feel really good where we're positioned. I feel really good about some of the balance sheet optionality we use for the quarter and we're really excited about what we're seeing in our markets on the loan side.