Earnings Labs

Stoneridge, Inc. (SRI)

Q3 2021 Earnings Call· Mon, Nov 1, 2021

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Stoneridge third quarter 2021 conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions]. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions]. I would now like to hand the conference over to Kelly Harvey, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead miss.

Kelly Harvey

Analyst

Good morning everyone and thank you for joining us to discuss our third quarter results. The release and accompanying presentation was filed with the SEC yesterday evening and is posted on our website at stoneridge.com in the Investors section under Webcasts & Presentations. Joining me on today's call are Jon DeGaynor, our President and Chief Executive Officer and Matt Horvath, our newly appointed Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, I need to inform you that certain statements today may be forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements include statements that are not historical in nature and include information concerning our future results or plans. Although we believe that such statements are based upon reasonable assumptions, you should understand that these statements are subject to risks and uncertainties and actual results may differ materially. Additional information about such factors and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ may be found in our 10-Q, which has been filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission under the heading Forward-Looking Statements. During today's call, we will also be referring to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please see the appendix for a reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures. After Jon and Matt have finished their formal remarks, we will then open up the call to questions. I would ask you that you please keep your question to a single follow-up. With that, I will turn the call over to Jon.

Jon DeGaynor

Analyst

Thanks Kelly and good morning everyone. Turning to slide three. In the third quarter, we continues to navigate through supply chain challenges. This impacted material availability, production schedules, product mix, labor availability and cost, logistics and even our tax rate. Our third quarter sales of $182 million resulted in an adjusted gross margin of 20.2%, translating to an adjusted operating loss of $6.9 million. Adjusted EPS for the quarter was negative $0.27. Our third quarter performance was significantly impacted by external headwinds, which in total, unfavorably impacted adjusted EPS by approximately $0.25 in the quarter. Our prior expectations, as outline on our second quarter call, called for approximately breakeven adjusted EPS performance in the quarter. I will provide a more detailed review on the performance drivers for our third quarter results later in the call. During the quarter, we remained focused on offsetting the incremental supply chain related costs we are incurring. Total incremental costs exceed $11 million in the quarter of which we were able to offset almost $5 million or 44%. Despite incremental costs significantly increasing relative to the second quarter, we were able to offset a large portion of our incremental costs which positions us for an improved run rate going forward. During the quarter, we continued to make progress with our MirrorEye platform, as we are in the process of launching our first OEM program in Europe. Although we are early in the launch process, our customers' forecasts are suggesting take rates the system equal to exceeding our quarterly take rate at the time of award. As we expected, feedback on the system from end customers has been extremely favorable which is resulting in the forecasted incremental take rates. In addition to progress with our OEM launches, we continued to initiate and expand our retrofit programs…

Matt Horvath

Analyst

Thanks Jon. Turning to page 13. Sales in the third quarter excluding divested product lines were approximately $179 million which is a decrease of 5.6% compared to the prior quarter, primarily due to reduced production schedules at our OEM customers offset by the ramp up of certain program launches. Adjusted operating loss, excluding divested product lines, were $7.4 million or negative 4.1% of sales which declined 280 basis points versus the prior quarter. The reduction in margin performance during the third quarter is primarily due to supply chain related headwinds which negatively impacted operating margin by an incremental $2.3 million or approximately 140 basis points compared to the prior quarter. As John discussed earlier on the call, while continued supply chain disruptions had a significant impact on our third quarter performance, we continued to take actions that mitigated a larger portion of these incremental costs and positioned us to continue to offset these cost moving forward. I will provide additional detail on segment performance and a brief discussion of our expectations for each segments for the remainder of 2021 on the subsequent slides. As Jon discussed earlier in the call, we are updating our full year guidance based on our view of current market conditions. Our guidance excludes the divested soot sensor business which has contributed $8.6 million in revenue and $0.04 adjusted EPS year-to-date. This morning, we are reducing our full year 2021 adjusted sales guidance to $740 million to $750 million and adjusted EPS guidance to a midpoint of negative $0.55. I will discuss the drivers of our current guidance in more detail later on the call. Page 14 summarize our key financial metrics specific to control devices. Control devices third quarter adjusted sales excluding the divested soot sensor business were approximately $85 million which is approximately flat…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. Our first question comes from the line of Justin Long with Stephens. Your line is open.

Justin Long

Analyst

Thanks and good morning.

Jon DeGaynor

Analyst

Good morning Justin.

Matt Horvath

Analyst

Good morning Justin.

Justin Long

Analyst

So I wanted to start with the supply chain cost mitigation efforts that you outlined. It looks like that that percentage increased going from the second quarter to the third quarter. Can you help us think about how you expect that percentage to trend as we move into the first half of next year, just assuming the growth cost stay flat with where they are today?

Jon DeGaynor

Analyst

Justin, thanks for the question. And I think you what you can see in the trends that we showed first quarter, second quarter, third quarter that the team has worked very hard, one, to mitigate the costs but, two, to work with our customers and our supply chain to avoid the cost but then to get recoveries in areas like getting the customers to pay for spot buys, getting the customers to pay for premium freight and then the ongoing things we talk about which is dealing with longer term inflationary activities like commodity increases, materials and resins, other electronic component increases where we are having to go back to customers and having longer term negotiations. We have long term contracts. We are respectful of our customers on those contracts but we also have to deal with the inflationary items that are out there. So we expect this to continue and improve. It will take time. It's not immediate. But we expect those percentages to continue to increase quarter-over-quarter.

Justin Long

Analyst

Okay. Helpful. And I just want to take a step back for a minute with my second question. You have always talked historically about the business eventually getting to a mid teens EBITDA margin over the longer term. Did the disruptions that we have seen over the last two years with the pandemic and the supply chain issues we are seeing right now, does that change the way you think of that opportunity? I know that the timeline clearly needs to be something that you put under review and you may speak to next year. But just from a structural perspective, can you still get to mid teen margins at some point?

Jon DeGaynor

Analyst

Yes. I think, Justin, the overall vision for the company remains the same. What we have said to investors, we still believe in. You have followed us for a very long time. And so you understand that 2019, 2020 were always going to be challenging years even before the pandemic as we were launching new products and we were transforming the way in which we build stuff and what we did. COVID plus the chip crisis and the overall supply chain crisis has certainly delayed that. It's caused delay in some of our actions. It's caused destruction of our engineering organization and our total organization to support our customers. It's because some customers to delay some of the things that they are doing because they have got to keep their plants running. So yes, of course it's extended the timeline but we feel very confident in that transformation plan that we laid out and we laid out with our investors for a long time is still the right plan and it's why we continue to talk about driving the same long term strategy. It's why the continuity in leadership and even the continuity in the financial leadership is so important to somebody that understands what we are trying to do and how we get to the next levels. But yes, it is going to take longer.

Justin Long

Analyst

Understood. I will leave it there. I appreciate the time.

Jon DeGaynor

Analyst

Thanks Justin.

Matt Horvath

Analyst

Thanks Justin.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Scott Stember with CL King. Your line is open.

Scott Stember

Analyst · CL King. Your line is open.

Good morning guys and congrats Matt on the move.

Jon DeGaynor

Analyst · CL King. Your line is open.

Good morning Scott.

Matt Horvath

Analyst · CL King. Your line is open.

Good morning Scott.

Scott Stember

Analyst · CL King. Your line is open.

Maybe talk about the price increases. Very helpful that you broke out the three different buckets. But I guess the second bucket which seems the most problematic and most difficult to attain from a my price increase standpoint, it sounds like it's going to be very difficult, I guess, to receive all of the relief but you probably need at least in the near term. Do you have any other levers that you can use on the back end, whether it's negotiating lower price get backs or higher take rates on products that you already have in the pipeline? Is there any way that you can get closer to getting everything that you need, one way or the other?

Jon DeGaynor

Analyst · CL King. Your line is open.

Yes. So Scott, this is one of the things when we talk about the entire organization and I think everybody on the phone should understand that this is an entire organizational effort. It's not just on our operations and our procurement teams and our engineering teams but it's also in on the commercial teams and the as we are trying to find ways to offset this. So of course, we also have contractions and we respect our commitments and we try to live up to our commitments. So in those situations where long term relationships that we build what customers, we are going back and we are having honest conversations. We are being as transparent as possible with them to say, here are the inflationary things we are facing and here's the pain that we are facing. And we are working with those customers to offset those both in price increases and recovery of spot buys but also, as you said, in some situations offset of future price down or price increases on future programs. And we have had a vast majority of our customers who have stepped up and partnered with us. There's a lot of work to do. And our team is working very hard on that. But I can tell you that we are pulling every level possible, both with our customers and our supply base. And the supplier partner who work with us in this way versus ones who don't, we will remember that over time.

Matt Horvath

Analyst · CL King. Your line is open.

Yes. And Scott, I would add to that. If you look at the progression of the cost that we have offset, I feel very comfortable in actions we have taken on the premium price in spot buys and the amount of cost we have been able to offset relates to that bucket of costs. Like you suggested, it's more challenging to recover the material increases through those customer negotiations in the short term but that is the opportunity to continue this progression of offsetting incremental costs as we move through this year and certainly into next year though the various things that Jon mentioned. So I think that's what we will expect to see the greatest improvement in cost offset as we move into the next several quarters.

Scott Stember

Analyst · CL King. Your line is open.

Got it. Very helpful. And on the increased rollout of retrofits for MirrorEye, could you maybe talk about what's traditional retrofit versus what is Pre-Wire? Are they two separate things and which order each will come?

Jon DeGaynor

Analyst · CL King. Your line is open.

So Scott, thanks for the question. We are seeing both. We are seeing expansion in both traditional retrofit where it's not through a Pre-Wire order as well as pre-wired. And in some situations where fleets that have the opportunity to order Pre-Wire trucks, one of the things as we think about retrofit penetration is the disruptions in the supply chain and therefore the disruptions in truck production has actually limited the ability of fleets that wanted to go with MirrorEye, to get pre-wired trucks. That's something that's relatively understated or maybe missed in this is a constraint with regards to trucks has an impact on our retrofit penetration. And what we are seeing from fleets because of the safety benefits and as we have talked about the driver retention benefits that they are seeing more and more every day, we have fleets that are not waiting to get pre-wired trucks that are asking us to retrofit existing trucks. So it's both.

Scott Stember

Analyst · CL King. Your line is open.

Got it. And the last question, big picture on Brazil kind of below the radar here a little bit but it remains profitable and I know the part of the whole idea of being here is to support your OEM launches. Could you give us an indication of how those are going and profitability expectations as we go forward?

Jon DeGaynor

Analyst · CL King. Your line is open.

Yes. So as you said, it's under the radar. It's one of my personal sources of pride for the transformation that that business has going through and what the team down in Brazil has led. That is an economy that goes through, it seems like there's always a crisis there and they found a way to continue to make money and to continue to grow despite whatever crisis is happening in Brazil. And so the numbers that you see on the slide would tell you through, they are dealing with the chip crisis as well and they are dealing with inflationary pressures and they may have found a way to continue to perform. They are a very important portion of our OE product development from electronic standpoint, more and more aligned with the SRE business every day. And also them launching OE programs both in tachograph and in instrument cluster and in connectivity modules again for SRE products with our commercial vehicle customers. So the transformation of that business from what it was which was an aftermarket B2C business to very much aligned with what we do, the alignment of the engineering organization to support our global engineering activities and to support our customers globally, all three of those are happening and the financial performance is coming and we expect to see as growth comes that the financial performance will continue to grow there both topline and bottomline.

Scott Stember

Analyst · CL King. Your line is open.

Great. That's all I had. Thanks guys.

Jon DeGaynor

Analyst · CL King. Your line is open.

Thank you Scott.

Matt Horvath

Analyst · CL King. Your line is open.

Thank you Scott.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. Our next question comes from Gary Prestopino with Barrington Research. Your line is open.

Gary Prestopino

Analyst · Barrington Research. Your line is open.

Hi. Good morning everyone.

Jon DeGaynor

Analyst · Barrington Research. Your line is open.

Good morning Gary.

Matt Horvath

Analyst · Barrington Research. Your line is open.

Good morning Gary.

Gary Prestopino

Analyst · Barrington Research. Your line is open.

I hear you right that you are basically looking at the IHS and LMC projections for Q4 and saying, you don't really have a lot of faith in that and you are projecting a market environment that is worse than they are projecting? And if so, what does that portend for 2022 with your thinking versus where they are?

Matt Horvath

Analyst · Barrington Research. Your line is open.

Yes. Thanks for the question, Gary. We have tried to be as specific as we can in the guidance that we were assuming for the remainder of the year that both includes what IHS announced forecasting more broadly and then more specifically the orders that we are seeing from customers in our production. So as you will see, while we continue to expect to outperform the market over the long term, we have hair cut the IHS and LMC information that's included in our guidance. When we look to 2022, there are obviously strong production tailwinds that's forecasted by IHS and LMC and we would expect to take advantage of that tailwind. I think given the volatility in the market conditions, it's just too early to say what exactly that will be. But we expect to outperform the market over the long term and we want to be very specific in our expectations for guidance for the remainder of the year given the volatility we see in the short term.

Gary Prestopino

Analyst · Barrington Research. Your line is open.

Okay. And as you talk to your end market clients, what are they saying in terms of when they think this will turn and start reflecting a more positive environment for their production schedules?

Jon DeGaynor

Analyst · Barrington Research. Your line is open.

Gary, each of our clients have a little different point of view and our suppliers, the electronic suppliers, have a different point of view. What we see right now, I think. I would sympathize it by saying, we see it as if you look at three sides of a trough, getting worse, leveling out or getting better, we see it at least in the leveling off and we see some indications of getting better. We don't see it getting worse. And on the last call and in the last two calls when we talked about this, you said or we said what others are saying, they call it the bottom and we said we don't see it yet. At this point we are seeing it flat and we see some areas of improvement. Yes, there are still inflationary pressures. The freight example that we talked about where that comes up as a surprise within the quarter but right now as we see the availability of components which will then drive production output both on commercial vehicles and passenger cars and how that drives our sales, we see that at least that's why it's not getting better. But it's too soon to call. It's too soon to absolutely call it as just getting better but we do see certainly indications that it's going that way.

Matt Horvath

Analyst · Barrington Research. Your line is open.

Yes. Gary, I would add to that. Even stability bad is good, right. If you look at the quarter that we outlined some things the third quarter that were a result of inefficiency related to volatility and some opportunity we sought to take advantage of stability going from the third to fourth quarter in our implied guidance. So while we are starting to see some improvement, even stability is improvement. And I think that that's also important to think about as we go from the third to the fourth quarter.

Gary Prestopino

Analyst · Barrington Research. Your line is open.

Thank you.

Jon DeGaynor

Analyst · Barrington Research. Your line is open.

Thanks Gary.

Matt Horvath

Analyst · Barrington Research. Your line is open.

Thanks Gary.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from Justin Long with Stephens. Your line is open.

Justin Long

Analyst · Stephens. Your line is open.

Thanks for taking the follow-up. Jon, I wanted to follow up on that last question and the comment you made about seeing some of slight improvement. Could you expand a little bit more on that? Where are you seeing it? Is it in light auto? Is it in commercial vehicles? Certain regions? But I would like to just get a little bit more color there.

Jon DeGaynor

Analyst · Stephens. Your line is open.

Yes. So what I would say, Justin, the way I expanded is, it's what I am seeing from the sources of chip supply. One thing that gets lost in all of this is the amount of time that the leadership at Stoneridge is spending with our customers and with the chip suppliers managing this crisis on a daily basis. And the difference that we are seeing today is, as the pipeline starts to refill and what do we do to stabilize and what do we do improve versus even as recently as a month or six weeks ago where we would have decommits where the suppliers would have said, we are going to send you this much per week and then they would say, oh, we can't do that. So I am sure you have read about the stabilization of some of the things with regard to the chip supply and the issues in Malaysia and Vietnam and Thailand. Now we are seeing that pipeline start to fill. And as Matt said, if we have stable ability to plan that allows us to plan our labor, that allows us to plan our plants and allows us to drive a lot more efficiencies and then we just don't have a crisis in the engineering organization and the overall operations organization than plan and run. That's where we are seeing it right now. So it's going to impact both pass car and commercial vehicle. It's most acute in the conversations that I am in with the commercial vehicle side but the feedback that we are getting and where we are hearing it is more on the chip supply side.

Justin Long

Analyst · Stephens. Your line is open.

Okay. That's helpful. And last question for me is on the timing of program launches as we get into it to 2022. Has anything changed on that front, just given the volatility in the market? And maybe you could just help remind us of the major program launches we should be mindful of as we get into next year?

Jon DeGaynor

Analyst · Stephens. Your line is open.

Thanks for the question, Justin. As I said earlier, engineering organizations both within Stoneridge and within the customers have been absolutely heads down on trying to find alternatives chips and keeping lines running. So there has been some small six weeks here, eight weeks there delays in programs. We haven't lost any programs but there have been delays in launches. That is understandable given, given the impediments to travel as well as the chip crisis. But so the program that we haven't launching in Europe right now is the first time we have a program with regard to MirrorEye. The driver information system launch really ramped up into q2 and is in full-flown ramp up right now. That was the largest driver information system program and it was critical to Stoneridge. So that's in the midst of launch right now. The North American MirrorEye launch is a Q1, Q2 2022. that's delayed by a few weeks and months but it's happening and it's part of our major truck launch and we are excited about that. And then we have, in control devices we have transmission actuator and park lock actuator launches both in North America and in China with critical electric and hybrid vehicle programs that I am sure you have read about. That are happening right now and continue to roll out. So there are a ton of launches on both sides of the organization that, yes, there have been some headwinds from timing but we are really excited about where we are going with those launches.

Justin Long

Analyst · Stephens. Your line is open.

Okay. Great. That's really helpful. Thanks again for the time today.

Jon DeGaynor

Analyst · Stephens. Your line is open.

Thanks Justin.

Matt Horvath

Analyst · Stephens. Your line is open.

Thanks Justin.

Operator

Operator

I am showing no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the conference back to Jon DeGaynor.

Jon DeGaynor

Analyst

Yes. Thank you and thank you all for your participation in today's call. Just to close, I want to assure you that our company is committed to continuing to drive shareholder value through strong operating results, profitable new business and focused deployment of our available resources. This management team will respond efficiently and effectively to manage and control the variables that we can impact and continue to drive strong financial performance. We are confident that our actions will result in continued success for 2021 and beyond and we look forward to talking in the next quarter's call. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.