Sequans Communications S.A. (SQNS) Q1 2026 Earnings Report, Transcript and Summary

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the First Quarter 2026 Sequans Earnings Conference Call. My name is Howard, and I will be your operator for today's call. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to Mr. David Hanover, Investor Relations. David, you may begin.

Thank you, operator, and thank you to everyone participating in today's call. Joining me on the call from Sequans Communications are Georges Karam, CEO and Chairman; and Deborah Choate, CFO. Before turning the call over to Georges, I would like to remind our participants of the following important information on behalf of Sequans. First, Sequans issued an earnings press release this morning, and you'll find a copy of the release on the company's website at www.sequans.com under the Newsroom section. Second, this conference call contains projections and other forward-looking statements regarding future events or future financial performance and potential financing sources. All statements other than present and historical facts and conditions contained in this release, including any statements regarding our business strategy, cost optimization plans, strategic options, the ability to enter into new strategic agreements, expectations for sales, our ability to convert our pipeline to revenue and our objectives for future operations are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 as amended. These statements are only predictions and reflect current beliefs and expectations with respect to future events and are based on assumptions and subject to risks and uncertainties and subject to change at any time. We operate in a very competitive and rapidly changing environment. New risks emerge from time to time. Given these risks and uncertainties, you should not rely on or place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. Actual events or results may differ materially from those contained in the projections or forward-looking statements. More information on factors that could affect our business and financial results are included in our public filings made with the Securities and Exchange Commission. And now I'd like to hand the call over to Georges Karam. Please go ahead, Georges.

Thank you, David, and good morning, everyone. I'd like to begin with a brief update on our capital allocation strategy, including how we are approaching the management of our digital asset holdings alongside the continued execution of our IoT semiconductor business. Our priority remains clear. We are focused first and foremost on executing our IoT strategy, scaling our product business and advancing our 5G road map in a disciplined way to create long-term shareholder value. In parallel, we have continued to manage our Bitcoin holdings with a pragmatic and opportunistic approach. In light of current market conditions, we made the decision earlier this year to eliminate all debt-related risk by negotiating an early redemption agreement with our debt holders. This allows us to fully redeem the $94.5 million of convertible debt by June 1, 2026, funded through the sale of Bitcoin that had been held as collateral. As of today, we have already redeemed approximately 62% of this debt, and the remaining balance will be redeemed in the coming weeks. By June 1, we expect to have a near debt-free balance sheet with at least 600 Bitcoin held as unencumbered asset. Looking ahead, we do not intend to further pursue our treasury strategy. Instead, our objective will be to monetize these holdings over time in a disciplined manner, balancing market conditions with our broader capital needs. Importantly, we remain focused on maintaining a strong cash position to support operations, invest in our 5G IoT road map and provide stability as we scale the business. Turning now to the operational side of the business. Our IoT semiconductor business continues to demonstrate solid underlying momentum. For the first quarter, we generated $6.1 million revenue. This performance is broadly in line with our expectations and reflects continued strength in product revenue despite supply challenges, partially offset by variability in the timing of services revenue. Looking ahead, we continue to benefit from a strong backlog, which provides good near-term visibility. Our order backlog continues to build with approximately $22 million in revenue, primarily product-related, already secured for the year, along with early indications of orders extending into the first quarter of next year. This provides us with increasing confidence in the trajectory of the business as we move through 2026 and confirms the healthy nature of our design-win pipeline and related KPI we track. Our full year outlook continues to be supported by an increasing number of design-win projects transitioning to production. We entered the year with more than $300 million in potential 3-year product revenue from design-win projects. Of these, 44% had already reached the production phase and are generating revenue. During the first quarter, 3 additional design-win projects transitioned into production, and we expect additional projects to follow in the second quarter. As a result, we continue to anticipate that more than half of our current design-win pipeline will be in production by the end of June, representing approximately $150 million in potential 3-year revenue. We are also seeing strong momentum with the new customer engagements. In the first quarter, we engaged more than a dozen new customer projects with 6 already confirmed as design wins. These programs are expected to contribute to growth, beginning in 2027 and beyond. Our product pipeline remains primarily driven by our 4G, CAT-M and CAT-1bis technologies. It also includes our RF transceiver product, which supports a wide range of software-defined radio applications, including defense and drone use cases. In addition, we have initiated early engagements around 5G eRedCap, which will be the future successor to 4G and cellular IoT deployments. Smart metering, telematics and asset tracking continue to represent our strongest verticals, followed by security, e-health and medical and other industrial applications. Turning now to product ramps and key drivers. Cat-M continues to be a meaningful growth driver in 2026, led primarily by asset tracking and smart metering deployments. This business is scaling in line with expectation, supported by strong visibility and steady ordering patterns as many Cat-M design-win projects are now in production with key customers deployment underway. CAT-1bis is positioned for a breakout year, supported by multiple customer ramps across telematics, security and some metering use cases. We are already seeing revenue contribution from several design wins with additional projects expected to enter production in the second half of the year. We're also seeing incremental opportunities driven by current market dynamics, which are creating opening for Sequans to gain share. In our RF transceiver business, we continue to see stable demand from existing customers, supported by committed backlog, and we expect additional contribution in the second half of the year. At the same time, we are engaging with a number of new prospective customers, particularly in defense and drone applications, and we expect to begin securing some of these opportunities in the near term. We are also advancing discussions around licensing and collaboration opportunities, which could further expand the reach of our RF portfolio. More broadly, our product pipeline continues to mature with several design-win programs progressing towards production. We are also seeing new generation product opportunities with existing customers, which provide incremental upside with our installed base. At the same time, we are actively preparing for the next major transition in IoT connectivity, which is the migration from 4G to 5G. Market demand for our 5G eRedCap solution continues to strengthen, particularly as mobile network operators look to refarm 4G spectrum and accelerate broader 5G deployment. Importantly, IoT applications represent the final phase of this 4G to 5G transition. And these applications require long device life cycle, often 10 years or more, making a seamless and future-proof migration path essential. Unlike the 4G era, where the market became fragmented across multiple cellular technology categories, we expect the 5G IoT landscape to be more streamlined, centered around eRedCap as the primary standard. This creates a more efficient and scalable ecosystem for both customers and suppliers. Sequans is well positioned in this transition. We already have an established customer base across our 4G portfolio, and we expect to leverage these relationships as we introduce our 5G solutions. In many cases, customers will be able to transition using solutions designed to be compatible with existing deployments, enabling a smoother upgrade path. We continue to make strong progress on our 5G eRedCap program. During the quarter, we received our first engineering test chips, which are now in-house and under evaluation. This represents an important milestone as we advance toward customer sampling, which we continue to target for the second half of 2027. Looking ahead, we believe 5G IoT will represent a significant long-term growth opportunity, both in terms of market size and value per device, supporting improved pricing dynamics relative to 4G. Now turning to services and licensing. Our services and licensing business continues to represent an important source of high-margin revenue, although timing of revenue recognition can vary from quarter-to-quarter. On this front, we have several ongoing discussions that could contribute to revenue over the course of 2026. These include engagements with large global partners, licensing and collaboration opportunities, leveraging our RF and 5G IP portfolio as well as a range of smaller service agreements. These opportunities provide potential upside to our product-driven revenue base while also expanding our reach into new markets and applications. We remain focused on converting these discussions into revenue while managing expectation around time. On the supply chain side, we continue to operate in a dynamic cost and supply environment. We are seeing significant increases in memory pricing, which are impacting the cost of both our chips and modules. We are actively working to address these cost pressures while ensuring we can meet customer demand. At the same time, we have taken proactive steps to secure supply, including multi-sourcing across key components such as memory and packaging. Based on our current plan, we believe supply for our 2027 baseline demand is secure, although we continue to monitor potential upside scenarios. Overall, while cost pressures and supply challenges are real, they are manageable and consistent with the broader industry trends. As we move through 2026, we remain focused on disciplined cost management and reducing cash burn. Our objective continues to be reaching a breakeven run rate by the end of the year as revenue scales. We implemented the cost reduction plan at the end of last year. And while the full benefits will not be realized until midyear, we are confident in achieving our expense targets in the second half. Working capital dynamics will continue to evolve alongside growth, particularly as we support production ramps and manage supply chain requirements. These dynamics may create short-term variability, but they are aligned with long-term revenue growth. Overall, our performance underscores the progress we are making in strengthening our core IoT business, improving financial discipline and maintaining flexibility in our capital strategy. Regarding our outlook for the second quarter, we currently expect revenue to be in the range of $6.8 million to $7.4 million, driven predominantly by product revenue, with potential upside if new licensing deals are closed. Based on our backlog and continued momentum across our design-win pipeline, we expect revenue to build sequentially throughout the remainder of the year. We also remain focused on reducing cash burn and continue to believe we can approach cash flow breakeven by the end of the year as the business scales. Looking ahead, we continue to evaluate strategic alternatives that could accelerate profitability and unlock additional value for shareholders. What's clear to us is that we are operating from a position of strength. We have a solid balance sheet, a growing and increasingly productive IoT business and a differentiated 5G and RF IP portfolio that we believe will be a key driver of long-term value. As we discussed earlier, the transition from 4G to 5G in IoT represents a fundamental shift in the market. With eRedCap expected to become the primary standard, we believe this will create a larger, more unified and more scalable market than what we saw in the 4G cycle. Sequans is uniquely positioned to benefit from this evolution. We expect to leverage our existing 4G customer base as a natural entry point into 5G, enabling a more efficient transition for our customers while accelerating our own time to market. Combined with the expected premium pricing and expanded market opportunity, we believe this positions us to drive meaningful long-term growth and improved profitability. In parallel, we will complete the redemption of our debt by June 1 and continue to manage our capital allocation with discipline, maintaining a strong cash position while preserving flexibility to act opportunistically as conditions evolve. Overall, we remain focused on scaling our IoT business, advancing our 5G road map, developing our new RF transceiver business and executing against the key drivers that we believe will unlock the full value of Sequans over time. With that, I will now turn the call over to Deborah to review our financial results in greater detail. Deborah?

Thank you, Georges. Hello, everyone. I'll begin by reviewing our first quarter financial results and then provide an update on our balance sheet and digital asset holdings. During the first quarter, our financial results continued to reflect the underlying momentum in the IoT business, along with the impact of actions taken earlier this year to strengthen our balance sheet and simplify our capital structure. For Q1 2026, total revenue was $6.1 million compared to $6.9 million in the fourth quarter. As Georges mentioned, revenue in the quarter was primarily driven by product sales with ongoing variability and licensing and service revenue timing. Gross margin for the quarter was 37.7% compared to 41.4% in the fourth quarter and reflects the ongoing impact of supply chain dynamics and especially revenue and product mix. Operating expenses in the quarter, including R&D and SG&A expenses, were $11.8 million compared to $12.3 million in the fourth quarter. We continue to make progress on our cost reduction plan and remain on track to achieve lower operating expense levels in the second half of the year. During the quarter, we recorded $29.3 million of noncash charges related to the mark-to-market valuation of our Bitcoin holdings compared to a loss of $56.3 million in the fourth quarter. As a reminder, these charges are driven by market price movements and do not reflect underlying operating performance. We also recorded $11.7 million of realized losses on the sale of Bitcoin during the quarter compared to $6.1 million of losses in the fourth quarter, primarily associated with the ongoing redemption of our convertible debt. As discussed previously, the convertible debt and associated embedded derivatives continue to be remeasured each reporting period, resulting in noncash impacts to the P&L. In addition, IFRS accounting requires us to recognize noncash interest expense associated with the 0% coupon instrument. Reflecting these factors, we reported an IFRS net loss of $54.3 million for the quarter compared to an IFRS net loss of $76.4 million in the fourth quarter. On a non-IFRS basis, excluding significant noncash items, we reported a net loss of $20.7 million or $1.42 per ADS compared with a non-IFRS net loss of $16.2 million or $1.04 per ADS in Q4. The comparative numbers for Q4 and Q1 2025 have been adjusted from the unaudited figures published in February 2026 and May 2025. In finalizing the 2025 audit, we made adjustments related to the timing and amount of revenue recognized, the accounting for the compound financial instruments issued in July 2025 and related embedded derivatives, finalization of the ACP purchase accounting and other adjustments attributable to normal year-end closing procedures, audit adjustments and the completion of management review. We are currently still finalizing with our auditors the documentation and disclosure of the impairment test for ACP, goodwill and other acquired intangibles on the balance sheet. The ongoing discussions regarding determination of the cash-generating units to be evaluated and the most appropriate valuation models resulted in delays in issuance of the audit report, and therefore, we filed a statement indicating we would need to extend our filing deadline. We expect to file our Form 20-F this week. Turning to cash flow. Normalized cash burn for the quarter was just under $10 million compared to approximately $7.7 million in the fourth quarter, including working capital movements. As Georges mentioned, working capital can fluctuate as we support production ramp and secure supply. During the quarter, we continued to execute on our balance sheet strategy. As of March 31, 2026, we had redeemed $28.3 million of the $94.5 million face value debt that was outstanding on December 31, 2025. As of April 30, we had redeemed approximately 62% of this convertible debt, funded through the sale of 800 Bitcoin, leaving a balance of approximately $35.9 million due, which we expect to redeem in full by June 1, 2026. At the end of Q1, we held cash and cash equivalents of approximately $10.6 million compared to $13.4 million at the end of 2025. As of the end of Q1, we held 1,514 Bitcoin compared to 2,139 Bitcoin at year-end 2025. And as of April 30, we held 1,114 Bitcoin and expect that we will hold at least 600 Bitcoin after full redemption of the debt, all of which will be fully available for sale. Following completion of the debt redemption, we expect to have a near debt-free balance sheet with a simplified capital structure and increased financial flexibility. Overall, our financial results for the quarter reflect continued progress in scaling the IoT business, improving cost discipline and strengthening the balance sheet. Before turning the call back to Georges to conclude, I'd like to cover a few housekeeping matters. We expect to conclude the final audit procedures with our auditors this week and be in a position to file our annual report on Form 20-F. Since we filed an extension notification last week, as long as we file by May 15, we will still be considered a timely filer. We are currently preparing for our Annual Shareholders Meeting on June 30, 2026. You should expect to see voting materials by early June. Most of the resolutions will be our normal recurring resolutions that you see each year. One of these resolutions is to ask for authorization for a capital increase. This year, we will ask for authorization to issue up to 7.5 million ADS, including up to $15 million in the form of convertible debt. We would like to clarify that we are asking for this authorization only to provide flexibility in the event that we have a strategic opportunity that would require issuance of convertible debt or equity. We currently have no plans to do any equity raise to finance operations. In fact, the shelf registration statement and ATM program that we filed in August 2025 were filed when we had the market cap to be an accelerated filer and were automatically effective. Upon the filing of the 2025 annual report on Form 20-F, we will no longer satisfy the requirements for using an automatic shelf, and therefore, we can no longer issue equity under that August shelf registration or the ATM program. With that, I'll turn the call back to Georges.

As we close, I want to reiterate that our primary focus remains on executing and scaling our IoT business and expanding to software-defined markets such as drones and defense. We are seeing solid momentum across the portfolio, supported by a growing backlog, a maturing design-win pipeline, an increasing number of projects transitioning into production and several advanced licensing and services deals. With continued strength across Cat-M, Cat-1bis and RF transceivers, and with early engagement around 5G eRedCap, we believe the business is well positioned to drive sequential growth while maintaining a clear path towards cash flow breakeven. At the same time, we have taken decisive steps to simplify and strengthen our balance sheet. By eliminating our convertible debt and transitioning away from the treasury strategy, we are increasing financial flexibility and sharpening our focus on the core business. Going forward, our priority is to monetize our remaining Bitcoin holding in a disciplined way while ensuring we maintain the liquidity needed to support operations and invest in our 5G road map. Overall, we believe we are entering an important phase for the company with a stronger financial foundation, improving operational visibility and a clear path to long-term value creation. Thank you for listening. We can move now, operator, to the questions, if you don't mind.

[Operator Instructions] Our first question or comment comes from the line of Luke Horton from Northland.

This is Luke on for Mike Grondahl. Just wanted to touch kind of on the 5G road map and pipeline you have there. And I guess, specifically with RedCap, I guess, how large do you expect this opportunity to be relative to the existing kind of Cat-M, Cat-1 business?

Yes. Luke, I mean, just not to be confused, you said RedCap, I'm talking about eRedCap. eRedCap is really the standard that's going to replace literally CAT-M and CAT-1bis. When you look to the 4G -- the 4G IoT, we had like 4 technology used in 4G: NB-IoT, mainly in China, but you have some in Europe and even in Australia and other place; Cat-M, mainly U.S., Japan and half of Europe, I would say; CAT-1bis is -- and CAT-1, which is the fourth one. And as you see, this is really because IoT -- cellular was for the first time entering IoT and for the good and the bad, they ended by having almost competing technology, not 100% competing, covering some application, but there is also a piece of it competing. And this fragmented the market. Obviously, now the carriers, starting in the U.S., and obviously, this will be followed by other region of the world, the carriers, they would like to finish their deployment of 5G. And in other words, they need to refarm the 4G spectrum to use it on 5G and one day switch off the 4G. To do this, you can do it today for all applications on the phone, but you cannot do it for IoT because all the IoT runs on 4G. That's why there is a push to come with the IoT -- 5G IoT, and this is the eRedCap. So eRedCap, by definition, will come and replace [indiscernible] all those Cat-M, NB, CAT-1 and CAT-1bis. You will have like kind of supporting low speed and medium speed. The same technology is able to do this. And because it supports 5G, it will have a little bit higher ASP. And because it supports the low speed and the high speed, so it will be really benefiting from the continuation of the IoT business in cellular and it will be expanding over time as well increasing in the price and increasing the size. So definitely, the opportunity will be, let's say, at least the sum of the 4 opportunity of Cat-1, Cat-1bis, Cat-M and NB-IoT today, plus some premium, let's say, 10%, 15% related to ASP increase because of the 5G.

Okay. Got it. I appreciate the color there. And then I guess on the kind of $300 million pipeline that you called out with about 50% of that expected in the next 3 years. And then also just kind of given the sequential growth acceleration, kind of quarterly cadence throughout this year, I guess, where does that confidence come from? And could you provide any other color around those?

Yes. Sure. Luke, I mean, the $300 million, this is what we had, let's say, on January this year as design win in hand, and we said like first 4% of them were in production, which means generating revenue. And we expect to be, by June, 50% of them in production, which will be $150 million. In other words, if you take $150 million in average over 3 years, this is $50 million yearly revenue in average. Obviously, there will be a ramp depending on the project, year 1, year 2, year 3. And the confidence there continues to build. And literally, when you look to our backlog, if you compare this to beginning of the year, this year in Q1, as I'm speaking, we have backlog securing close to $22 million for the year, this year, in product revenue. And we have even portioned, like $2 million, $3 million already in hand for Q1 next year. This backlog is coming from existing design win in production. And this means all our analysis on the fact of our design-win pipeline is really true and accurate, if you want, reflected in the ramp of our customers. So that's why we have really strong confidence on this. Now obviously, we need to continue the conversions from design win to full mass production. That will happen in the second half of the year, I would say, in June and beyond June, let's say, for the second half of the year. And to some extent, if you look to Cat-M business, Cat-M business today is really -- versus our target, we feel almost secured. I don't want to say 100%, but maybe 90% of our plan is already in hand. Why? Because on the Cat-M is really -- a big portion of the Cat-M is design win in production. The Cat-1bis, we have design win, not all of them in production, and this is the piece where we're still working on to ensure the ramp is going to continue in the second half of the year in terms of product revenue.

Okay. Great. And then just lastly for me on the digital asset strategy after the June 1 redemption, how do you think about Bitcoin holdings on the balance sheet and kind of capital allocation strategy, I guess, kind of specifically in different crypto market situations, like if there were to be another bull run in crypto versus kind of digital asset pricing pulling back again?

Yes. I mean, Luke, I mean, we went through digital asset thinking seriously that we can develop this business and we can trade above NAV. And then after this, maybe separate the 2 business, which is the core business, IoT from the digital assets because they cannot live together forever. I mean it was really -- my plan was if the 2 -- if digital asset is working in addition to the IoT, knowing that IoT will be working, we'll have, at some time, to separate them and do something there. Unfortunately, for many, many reasons, the digital assets didn't work in a sense like we were not able really to create -- to benefit from the leverage of the debt and be able to get our NAV higher than [ 1 ] , allowing us to keep scaling. So any digital asset strategy needs to have the ability to scale in number of Bitcoin and so on. And unfortunately, because we realized on top of this, the pressure on the Bitcoin, put us almost at risk. And I believe many people were nervous at the beginning of the year if this can hurt the IoT business as well. For all those reasons, we decided really to take out the risk by redeeming the debt. And obviously, from there, have a balance sheet which is clean, no debt. We'll have there, obviously, Bitcoin after -- in June 1. From there, the question becomes, are we going to go and buy Bitcoin? I don't believe so today. This is what I'm clear on it. Now we will have a holding, more than 600 Bitcoin. Are we going to sell them on June 2? I don't believe we'll be doing this on June 2, but we will be taking our time to monetize those Bitcoin in the coming, I would say, couple of quarters, knowing that the purchase price of this Bitcoin, I mean, is higher. And obviously, the trend we are seeing today that the Bitcoin is going into the right direction. So we would like to benefit from this if we can. But in any case, we'll not sacrifice IoT. And in other words, we secure enough cash on the balance sheet to be sure that the company can operate independent of the variability that you could see on the Bitcoin.

Our next question or comment comes from the line of Scott Searle from ROTH Capital Partners.

Maybe just to dive in, Georges, on the RF business, it sounds like there's a lot of momentum building. Could you calibrate us in terms of where that is from a current revenue standpoint, what the backlog and opportunity looks like as you think about '26 and '27? And then as it relates to the RedCap -- eRedCap licensing opportunity, it sounds like there are a number of opportunities in the pipeline. I wonder if you could provide a little bit more color in terms of the magnitude and time line that you could see some of these deals materializing maybe a little bit in terms of how you're thinking about different vertical markets on that licensing front?

Yes. Scott, thanks for the questions. Indeed, as you know, one of the nice surprise we saw this year, which is we acquired the ACP and by acquiring ACP, the original goal was there to get the IP of the RF and accelerate our 5G eRedCap road map. And this is really executed on. As I said, we have already a chip in-house, and this has all the RF and all the analog and everything is working well as we are speaking. So this is -- we did it. But at the same time, we have, let's say, as a bonus on top of this, a product -- RF product that can be sold on stand-alone to existing customer. And when we dig in, we realized that this product is really a great product to go to drone market and defense market where you have very high ASP, very high margin and the market is booming. From this, we obviously secure the existing customer we have. And I could say today, around those customers, we could be doing close to, maybe this year, $5 million or $4 million, $5 million. They are not -- they are -- I'm putting inside this as well the royalty we collect with our Chinese RedCap. But let's call it, outside of this regular IoT business, we have around $5 million almost secured for the year and maybe we can do a couple more, depending, in the second half, if the backlog will confirm versus forecast. But the good news as well there is like we expanded to go to this defense market and drone market. And here, since we announced the Iris family, this product, we had like a dozen of leads across the world, really from many, many countries. And we realized that we have really great product, very competitive in terms of feature set, and people are really happy to use it and test it and engage projects. And as I'm speaking, I have at least several -- a few of them very advanced to consider it a design win. I don't qualify it yet a design win, but a few of them are there. So the potential of this RF business, honestly, could be -- when we're talking about the market, it's very hard to size this market around defense and drones, if you take only the transceiver business, but we are talking about maybe $100 million plus per year potential market. And as you know, this is really very high margin. We're talking about 99% gross margin. So we believe like it makes sense for us to capture a nice market share from there, whether 20%, 30%, we'll see how good we are. but this is really a very nice potential for the company, coming almost with very minimum investment. The only investment we are doing is really in support, marketing because the R&D is already done. So this is on the RF. And then if I look to the licensing and in general, those opportunities, licensing remains very important for us, specifically if we want really to achieve our cash flow breakeven in Q4. Even if the product revenue is really growing nicely, and if you look to our number in Q1, 90% plus is product and my guidance for the Q2, same. So we are really moving to almost product revenue, but we still have several deals under discussion, maybe more than 5 of advanced discussion covering RF covering the eRedCap or let's say, the modem portion as well as the protocol for satellite communication. So on those, we are advanced with many of them. We hope we'll close something in Q2. We're not -- timing sometimes, it's not obvious how much revenue you can take it if you close at end of June. But we are looking to close at least 1 deal this quarter and maybe another 1 or 2 in the second half. And those deals, they vary. I mean there is -- obviously, we have some smaller ones. I'm not mentioning this. It could be a few hundred thousand dollars, but those are really associated with the product revenue in general. But pure service revenue, we're talking about deals here, they could be from a couple of million dollars up to $15 million, 1-5, that we are contemplating there. So potential is big. But obviously, they are binary. I mean, if you get them, you get the $15 million, if you don't get them, you get 0. But we have, as I said, several of them quite advanced. So that's why we are optimistic that we can secure something this year that can help us support -- that add to the product growth in the second half of the year.

And then, George, looking to the second half of this year, you're talking about getting cash flow breakeven. That obviously implies that the product revenue ramps considerably in the second half of this year. Could you expand a little bit on your confidence level on that front? Certainly, that $300 million pipeline is helping, but it sounds like new wins are starting to ramp as well. And could you give us an idea about where you expect product to ramp to by the end of this year? The backlog supports some of that current visibility. But just kind of maybe help us out a little bit with some end markets and the competitive landscape as well. Cat-1bis is very, very hot right now. Kind of where you guys stand from a win rate on that front?

It's really -- the confidence is coming with the maturity of the design win, means those design wins are already in production. Everything which is in production today, and we start to have a sizable number of projects, and as I mentioned, mainly in metering and tracking. These are the 2 markets where we are very good at in a matured way. All those are coming, scaling. Last year, we did some number. This year, we plan to do something that's already secured. So the confidence level is really coming very strong from everything in production. So if I look to my ramp for everything in production, I'm more than 90% sure about it. Everything really shipping. It's really good. We have backlog and we have forecast from customers, and we should have no big surprise in the second half on this. The other piece, which is really where really the risk is or, let's say, where we have a little bit of challenge of timing, not to lose the customer. But if we are planning, obviously, and mainly in the Cat-1bis space because the Cat-M is much more mature today, more than 90% of the Cat-M -- of our Cat-M plan this year is already done, as I said, while maybe in terms of Cat-1bis, we are at 30%, let's say, if I give it a number. Why? Because the Cat-1bis is a product that we introduced after the Cat-M, which means the design wins we have there came later and those guys are not yet all in full production. Some are in full production, and we continue to win in security and telematics and they start moving and we start getting order. But obviously, we're expecting to have more in the second half. So this is the risk really or, let's say, the point to observe if those Cat-1bis projects come on time in terms of moving to production in the second half of the year. But we are optimistic because they are happening and the customer is serious, the projects are moving. And if there is a shift, it will be really minor delay with the customers taking a month or 2 delay, but this will happen at the end of the day. And then if I look to the RF, I told you already, I mean, we are in good shape there because all what we have in hand, we secured maybe 60% power plant in RF already. Still the remaining needs to happen in the second half based on forecast, not yet an order, but based on forecast. So all this give us strong confidence, to be honest. And when you compare to the last year, it has nothing to do -- I mean the company really now -- we talk about many, many customers, many projects, repeating order, established customers to whom we ship -- we ship to them maybe in the last 2 years already, maybe a little bit and growing. And some we started shipping last year and now growing strongly this year. So that's why we are really very, very positive on the ramp of our product revenue in the coming quarters.

Very helpful. Georges, maybe just quickly, the competitive landscape right now for Cat-1bis and kind of what your win rate is. And Deborah, if you could remind us, I know that there -- you've got cost reduction efforts, but there are a lot of moving parts in the world today with currency fluctuations, et cetera. What should we be thinking about in terms of where that OpEx is in the second half of this year and therefore, the breakeven?

Yes. I mean on the competitive landscape, there is not a big change, to be honest, Scott. It's the same thing. Even if -- I saw in the Cat-1bis, Nordic announcing a product, I believe they got it through IP licensing from somewhere, without saying more on this. But you need to understand that Cat-1bis in the U.S. is closed. There is no more certification of new module in Cat-1bis. So any new Cat-1bis will be coming more to address Europe and not in the U.S., not North America. And there, if you go to North America, it's left between Qualcomm and us, to be straight on this. And the challenge of all this, again, you need to imagine that starting in 2029 and maybe not that far, maybe 2030, if this shifts a little bit, you're going to see all the market will be pushing to get eRedCap support, 5G support and you will not be able to deploy new product with 4G without having the 5G. So -- and here, obviously, the competitive landscape is who has 5G technology. And as you know, we benefit from all the investments we have done in the 5G, and we believe we'll be leading in the eRedCap in the market and take a strong position there.

Yes. And on operating expenses, we expect those to keep coming down. We're targeting to have cash operating expenses below $10 million, targeting $9 million by the end of the year.

Our next question or comment comes from the line of Jacob Stephan from Lake Street Capital Markets.

Maybe first, I want to touch on the balance sheet, kind of post June 1. Obviously, $10.6 million in cash. Just kind of help walk us through that a little bit. I know you're going to have roughly 600 Bitcoin, but the collateralized number of 817 that you guys cited in the press release, I guess when you kind of subtract the current holdings from that number, you get like 300. So can you kind of walk us through that a little bit?

Yes. I mean, Jacob, you're right. I mean it's a little bit tricky because we have some Bitcoin already free. We have around 300 Bitcoin in hand that they are free. They are not part of the 800 that Deborah was mentioning. When we talk about the 800, we're talking about the piece which is in the collateral. And obviously, the deal we have with our debt holders is we're keeping all the amount of Bitcoin in collateral until we redeem all the debt. So obviously, once we redeem all the debt, we get all what's left in there. So the more than 600 -- we'll be at least 600, I believe, we should have more. Mainly if the Bitcoin stays where it is today, maybe we'll have a nicer number. It's just only the fact that you pay what's left -- you sell the Bitcoin, you pay what's left. And then when you combine what's left from the collateral plus what we have already in hand, free Bitcoin, we'll end above 600 Bitcoin. So in a very simple way, don't matter the detail there. On June 1, we'll pay all the debt. We'll have more than 600 Bitcoin. And we'll have almost debt-free company, maybe we have $1 million or $2 million.

The only remaining debt after that will be related to government, like R&D funding that's 0 or low interest.

More short-term debt.

Got it. So the actual collateral, the $62 million or so is really just security for the $36 million of debt. But once you pay the $36 million of principal off, that's the remaining.

Yes.

Okay. I got you. Second, I just want to touch on the supply chain. I know you guys talked a lot about it with the memory costs increasing, but what's kind of your confidence level you can procure any additional supply, should any of the kind of upside opportunities that you mentioned to the full year present themselves?

Yes. I mean the -- you're absolutely -- you're mentioning a good point, Jacob. On one side, what I said, like for our, what I call it, baseline, we are good today. We were not -- last quarter, we were a little bit worry about Q4. Now we are fine. I mean maybe we'll not -- however, we are short in terms of covering upside, depending how big is the upside, right? I mean if we have a big deal and we need to serve it in Q4, we'll be short if I look to the number today. However, we have capacity to increase, we will be paying more in reality. So there is always some supply capacity that will cost you more, like you lose on margin and so on. So we are contemplating this. We are working on those angles. We believe there is a potential of upside that we can cover it, but maybe this will come with a reduced margin if we have to get it because we'll be paying more. And on the memory supply, as you know, this is an industry problem today and mainly driven by AI demand. But just to make it very simple, for me, even if there is -- even if AI is taking all the capacity of memory, if this is true at the end of the day, AI will not work neither, right? Because you cannot have all the electronic only running with the AI processor, right? I mean you need a lot of things around it, some communication and so on, and you need memory. So there is availability of memory, just only people benefiting off the cycle. And I can tell you, you have crazy price increases. We're not talking in percentage. You talk about multiple -- you can talk about 2x, 3x, some memory, sometimes more than this. So that's what we are seeing. And obviously, this is the industry trend. We cannot fight for it. But however, we have good relationship with the supplier, and we are securing our capacity. So we are not missing capacity. We also introduced some second sources on some of them. We have one memory, which was really key. We have already a second source already available and shipping to some customers, not to everybody. And obviously, over time, this gives us a chance as well to secure supply, but also keep pressure on the pricing not to pay -- at least to pay based on what the market is setting as a price for memory.

Our next question or comment comes from the line of Fedor Shabalin from B. Riley.

Georges, Once the convertible debt is fully redeemed, how should we think about the preferred use of the proceeds from the sale of remaining Bitcoin? How would you rate funding operational expenses versus maybe share buybacks?

Yes. Fedor, I mean, it's a good point to mention on this. Obviously, we still have the share buyback plan in hand, and we can execute on it. And in Q1, we did some share buyback already. Honestly, we don't need all this money on our balance sheet. And as I'm speaking, we'll be turning -- we don't need it in a sense for operation, for cash burn. Our cash burn should be reduced and be limited, and this will put the company in a very strong position in terms of balance sheet. The option of buying opportunistically, we could be looking to this. We're not giving up on this, making some buyback. Obviously, it depends on the business evolution in the second half, on the licensing deal we secured, let's assume we secure a big licensing deal and we add -- because maybe on revenue, we will not take all the deals now, but this can add a lot of cash because in the licensing deal, you have always some upfront payment that could be significant. There, maybe we feel like we have enough cash to -- and if the share is not performing, to come and support the share and make some buyback. So this is really on the agenda of the Board, and we can execute on it opportunistically, based on the market condition.

That's helpful. And my follow-up is about -- you did a great job outlining revenue pipeline and timing and cadence for 2026, and the same for operating expenses. I would like to dig a little bit deeper into details on operating expenses side. You mentioned that you would expect decrease in OpEx for the year. And I remember you mentioned $9 million, something like that, the number by the end of 2026. Where most of the savings come from on the OpEx side? That's the question.

Yes. I mean, Fedor, last year -- to be honest, now the company is in, I would say, efficient mode. But as you remember, last year, with all the movement of the company with the deal we did with Qualcomm and we had the acquisition of ACP, and we have a lot of even exceptional items related to Bitcoin, digital strategy in general as well. So all this, let's say, got cleaned, we cleaned it in Q4. Some of it was not effective in Q1. So -- and some will be effective in Q2. And for sure, by end of Q2, we'll get the full benefit of what we have. And we continue watching this. But in general, the focus was really -- we have our -- if I take in terms of R&D, our 4G product is maturing. There is only need for support on the 4G product. So in other words, we moved all the spending in 5G -- sorry, in R&D to 5G and with very minimum 4G, just all what we need for the support. This was an angle of saving. The investment into the 5G was aligned with time to market. We could go much faster if we want. We can go slower. And this was the decision based -- we need to be just in time. We don't want to be, with our eRedCap, 1 year ahead of time because this will not benefit for the company. And we don't want to be late. So -- and this also give us a variation, if you want, that a level -- a variable that we can play with. And obviously, in general, I would say all the G&A spending...

Yes. I don't think -- there's not one particular item, but across the board, we've had some planned headcount reductions, basically people leaving that we're not replacing. We have -- we work with a certain number of contractors that gives us leverage there when we are -- to reduce that number as different R&D projects finish. We've also looked at just the overall structure in terms of rent, basically, overall, all of the G&A expenses are being reduced across the board.

I'm showing no additional questions or comments in the queue at this time. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Georges Karam for any closing remarks.

So thank you all for joining the call and for all your questions. Looking forward to see you in the near future. Bye-bye.

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This concludes the program. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a wonderful day.