Spire Global, Inc. (SPIR) Q1 2026 Earnings Report, Transcript and Summary

Greetings, and welcome to the Spire Global First Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to Ben Hackman, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining Spire's First Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. Our earnings press release and related SEC filings are posted on the company's Investor Relations website, and a replay of today's call will be made available. With me today are Theresa Condor, CEO; and Ali Engel, CFO. Our commentary today will include non-GAAP items. Reconciliations between our GAAP and non-GAAP results as well as our guidance can be found in our earnings press release, which can be found on our IR website. Some of our comments today contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions. In particular, our expectations around our future results of operations and financial condition are uncertain and subject to change. Should any of these expectations fail to materialize or should our assumptions prove to be incorrect, actual company results could differ materially from these forward-looking statements. A description of these risks, uncertainties and assumptions and other factors that could affect our financial results is included in our SEC filings. With that, Theresa.

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Q1 confirmed the shape of the year we described to you in March and added forward visibility on top of it. The print came in above the high end of our guidance on both revenue and adjusted EBITDA. Core revenue ex Maritime grew 13% year-over-year. Our 50% full year growth guidance is unchanged. We described 2026 as second half-weighted, sequentially building with the catalysts that bridge Q1 to the back half, a specific, named and actively in motion. The risks that remain are primarily delivery risks and delivery is what we do. Before I take you through Q1, there are 2 structural facts to highlight. We have launched more than 240 satellites across more than 40 campaigns, and we have reserved launch capacity through 2028. Across the satellite services peer group, growth is increasingly being throttled by access to launch. We are not in that constraint. Reserved launch capacity is not something a new entrant can replicate quickly. It directly underwrites our ability to scale RFGL collection capacity, deploy additional weather payloads and meet commercial space services obligations on our own schedule rather than the industry. We have operational scaled transatlantic manufacturing with production facilities in the U.S., Europe and the U.K. Spire is one of very few companies anywhere with that footprint, and it is meaningful as sovereignty and local production requirements become more central to defense procurement. Our recent Munich opening was attended by local political and military leadership who toured the clean room and saw the scope of our local capabilities firsthand. Reserved launch through 2028 and dual continent manufacturing are the moats. Everything I describe in the next several minutes compounds against them. Across both the public market and private capital environments, we are observing increased recognition that pure-play scaled multi-domain RF intelligence is a strategic, scarce and durable category. That is consistent with what we hear from customers. They are no longer asking whether commercial RF makes sense. They are asking who can deliver at scale with verified on-orbit performance and with sovereign-ready manufacturing. That set of requirements narrows the field considerably. The first quarter demonstrated that the platform we described on the Q4 call is now translating into measurable progress. We deployed 19 satellites across 2 launches, which expanded our RFGL collection capacity by 6 new satellite pairings. We demonstrated single satellite geolocation for S-band and X-band signals, frequencies critical for defense missions and a capability that has traditionally required multiple coordinated satellites. This expands what we can do at lower constellation cost and broadens our addressable defense market. We were awarded 5 new RFGL orders from U.S. customers and signed 3 new international RFGL customers. RFGL is no longer a technical milestone. It is converting into revenue. In weather, our new Hyperspectral Microwave Sounder achieved first light with the demonstrator and is now delivering data to our end-user customer. On-orbit observations are meeting and, in many cases, exceeding our technical targets. We are incorporating this data stream into ongoing discussions with NOAA and allied meteorological agencies. In commercial, 2 patterns across our book are now consistent enough to call them structural. First, new commercial contract duration has lengthened with some wins moving into multiyear subscriptions. Second, the character of customer engagement is changing. Q1 saw existing commercial customers expanding their use of our data into new workflows and new business units rather than holding flat at their initial use case. The commercial base is becoming stickier and more compounding. Our integration with Amadeus, supporting their service to more than 400 airlines globally is a Q1 example of that pattern. Our AI-S2S model demonstrated 14.2% outperformance of the leading global subseasonal weather benchmark at the critical 3- to 6-week range, measured using the standard skill score methodology against a multi-month verification window, giving energy trading desks a differentiated edge on hedging decisions. The post Q1 catalysts that should be on every investor's radar are concrete and dated. The first is NOAA. We have multiple in-year proposals being submitted this month for microwave sounding, supported by the verified high quality of HyMS on-orbit data. Across the NOAA portfolio, we are actively bidding more than $150 million of 2026 opportunities with more than half in active proposal as of this month. The $8 billion NOAA IDIQ covers 7 data types, 4 of which Spire can deliver with infrastructure already on orbit. That distinction matters. Most commercial weather data providers can deliver 1 or 2. In Europe, Germany is moving forward procurement efforts around RF intelligence into the back half of the year. European defense budgets are rising at a pace not seen in decades, EUR 381 billion spent in 2025 on a target of EUR 800 billion annually within 5 years, a 16% CAGR. Germany alone budgeted EUR 108 billion for 2026, more than double its level of 5 years ago. Our dual continent footprint is the differentiator in these conversations. The structure of these opportunities is consistent, pilot, then data subscription, then full constellation deployment. Additional RFGL collection capacity continues to come online from the Q1 launches with full operational status reached through Q2 and Q3. This is the path between Q1's revenue print and the back half acceleration. Beyond the near-term catalyst, the substance of our 2026 guidance is in execution today. Our existing NOAA Radio Occultation contract, the $11.2 million 1-year award from last year is in full execution, and we expect uplift on that program at greater scope this year. Our European Radio Occultation contract, our space services contracts, our RFGL deals and our recently expanded commercial agreements are in delivery mode through the year. Initial revenue from microwave sounder data sales begins in 2026. On the contracted base specifically, approximately 76% of our 2026 revenue guidance is under contract today. Beyond that hard contracted layer, we have additional visibility from sole-source procurements where Spire is the expected awardee, programs where the procurement structure, the customer relationship and the technical fit make us the named provider. The sole-source visibility is a meaningful additional layer of confidence in our range on top of the contracted base. I have 3 observations on the multiyear setup. The microwave sounder market opportunity is significant. NOAA itself has stated that more than 90% of national weather service model accuracy depends on satellite data, with microwave sounders being a foundational input. The legacy government microwave sounding satellites cost billions of dollars per generation to procure. NOAA has been explicit about its intent to buy more commercial data rather than build another generation of bespoke government systems. Apply commercial radio occultation pricing precedents to that demand picture and a multibillion-dollar TAM over the next decade is not aggressive. Our HyMS instrument captures more frequency bands than traditional sounders and offers atmospheric depth that government systems do not currently provide. The international defense pipeline structure is multistep and multiyear, pilots converting to data subscriptions converting to constellation deployments. The pilots we have signed in 2025 and 2026 are the leading indicator for the data programs that follow them in 2027 and 2028. The commercial book compounds as customers embed our data directly into operational workflows, whether decision-making, risk management, aviation, energy trading, our services become core to their business. And every new use case adds revenue on top of an installed base that doesn't easily go away. We continue to make targeted technology investments. We signed an agreement with the European Space Agency with contributions from the U.K. Space Agency and the Italian Space Agency to develop and validate an AI-based system for real-time satellite health monitoring, anomaly detection and predictive failure analysis. As constellations scale across the industry, autonomous fleet management becomes an increasingly valuable capability and one we are positioned to provide. There are 3 things to take from this call. First, the year's revenue base is now substantially in execution, not in pipeline. The majority of our 2026 guidance is under contract today with additional visibility from sole-source procurements layered on top. The work between here and the high end of our $75 million to $85 million range is execution. Second, the catalysts that decide the back half are not abstract. They are specific, named and in motion. NOAA in-year proposals on microwave sounding now being submitted, European RF intelligence procurement progressing into the back half and RFGL collection capacity reaching full operational status through Q2 and Q3. Third, the operating leverage you have been hearing about for several quarters is about to become visible in the gross margin line. It will accelerate from there. Between now and our next call, the milestones investors should watch are concrete. NOAA proposal decisions on the in-year submissions, RFGL contract conversions and continued capacity expansion across our RFGL collection footprint. We will keep you updated as those events occur. Ali, over to you.

Thank you, Theresa. Theresa gave us a clear view of the demand environment. Now let's discuss the numbers. As a reminder, unless otherwise noted, I'll be discussing non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations between our GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures are included in our press release. GAAP revenue for the first quarter was $15.8 million, which came in above the high end of our guidance range. Without the $1.9 million of maritime revenue, core revenue grew 13% year-over-year, and the primary driver was civil government weather data purchases. Non-GAAP gross margin was 44%, an improvement of 5 points over the prior year quarter. We expect our gross margin to keep expanding as revenue grows and we maintain what is a largely fixed cost base. Our 60% to 70% long-term gross margin target is unchanged. Adjusted EBITDA was negative $10.2 million, also above the high end of our guidance range, driven by stronger revenue and disciplined cost management. We used $26.2 million in operating cash flow in the first quarter. Two things drove this decline. First, planned working capital timing; and second, elevated legal and professional fees. These fees are expected to decline throughout 2026. Spire remains debt-free. We exited the first quarter with approximately $50 million in cash and marketable securities. On April 10, we closed a private placement, which added $65.5 million in net proceeds to our balance sheet. Our cash balance gives us ample runway to execute against our growth plans. We expect our current cash position to fund us through adjusted EBITDA breakeven and beyond. The capital raise was in response in part to a discrete window of strong inbound demand from institutional investors. It allows us to accelerate growth into 2027 and beyond as demand continues to build, particularly across defense and intelligence and weather data procurement. We are maintaining our full year 2026 guidance for revenue, non-GAAP operating loss and adjusted EBITDA. Revenue remains expected in the range of $75 million to $85 million, representing over 50% year-over-year growth on an ex maritime basis at the midpoint. Full year adjusted EBITDA guidance is unchanged at negative $26 million to negative $20.7 million, and full year non-GAAP operating loss guidance is unchanged at negative $37.8 million to negative $32.6 million. Full year non-GAAP loss per share is expected between negative $0.93 and negative $0.79 per share on approximately 37.9 million shares. Spire is changing how we communicate guidance going forward. Starting this quarter, we're going to give annual guidance rather than quarterly guidance. This change is driven by the current nature of our business. Large government and enterprise contracts close on customer time lines, not on 90-day calendar quarters. Quarterly estimates imply a precision we can't reliably deliver in any given quarter, and they create noise that really isn't a signal. Our internal forecasting and visibility into the year are the same as they've always been. What's changing is the format. On the path to profitability, 3 things are no longer variables. Our cost base is increasingly fixed, satellites are on orbit, the ground infrastructure is built, transatlantic manufacturing is operational and engineering teams are in place. Within reasonable bounds, our operating expenses over the next several quarters are reasonably predictable. Reserved launch capacity through 2028 means deployment risk on growth investments is largely contained. Current customer contracts underpin the majority of 2026 and a meaningful portion of 2027 revenues. Every incremental dollar of revenue against our current cost base converts at higher margins. We continue to target adjusted EBITDA breakeven in the fourth quarter of 2026 to the first quarter of 2027 time frame, followed by positive operating cash flow sometime in 2027. Every pipeline conversion accelerates our cash flow goals. The platform we described on our fourth quarter call is now visibly producing. The trajectory we described has continued and the financial model is performing as expected. With that, let's open it up for questions.

[Operator Instructions] Our first question is coming from Erik Rasmussen from Stifel.

So maybe just on the RFGL, that sounds like you made a lot of progress. You had 5 new in U.S. and 3 international customers orders. It sounds like are you generating revenue today? And maybe just how big of an opportunity are you tracking, whether it's this year or in the coming years?

Yes. So I'll say, yes, we are generating RFGL revenue today, and we continue to build out the pipeline of that. I think, as you know, we don't give exact pipeline numbers. What I can say is that we've been increasing what we do both in the U.S. and in Europe. The NRO has continued to add to the contract that we have with them. And we continue to go through the process of pilot into data subscription into talking about sovereign constellations, particularly on the European side of things. So I'm super excited about what is happening on the RFGL side right now. And with the geopolitical situation just continues to reinforce that both in the U.S. and around the world, there's a great demand for this type of capability and very few companies that can actually meet that demand, both on the U.S. side and on the non-U.S. side.

Great. And maybe just, Ali, for you, just the shift, should we think about the changes to annual guidance is primarily driven by deal timing becoming less linear across the quarters and rather any change in underlying visibility of demand? And then as you make that shift, what metrics should we focus on throughout the year to track the progress against that?

Erik, good to talk to you. Yes, I think the change in the guidance is really just based on what we're seeing in the business and where we want to spend our time, which is focusing on meeting our year. We have a lot of great things that we're working on right now with -- that involve longer sales cycles and the quarterly ups and downs are more of a distraction. So I'd focus on our annual guidance, which we are reaffirming from our last call and how we are performing against those expectations during the year.

Great. And maybe just my last one. You opened up the satellite manufacturing facility in Munich. It sounds like you're able to produce 100 satellites. Are you at that point yet? Or when will you be at that capacity? And then maybe was this intentional in relation to the EURIALO project? Maybe just comment on how that maybe positions yourselves to potentially win and execute if you do go on to the next phase.

Yes, yes. So the manufacturing facility is open in Munich. I think you probably saw some of the announcements about it. We had a really successful kind of opening and visitor session that happened earlier today in the European time zone. We have really 300 to 400 satellite capacity across those facilities when we talk about Boulder, talk about Munich and we talk about, of course, what we can still continue to do in Glasgow. The EURIALO satellites are the first ones that are being integrated out of that Munich facility. So certainly, those are the ones that get it kicked off and started and then give us the ability to continue to do European-specific sovereign capabilities. And it's -- I think it's pretty exciting that we have those capabilities on both sides of the Atlantic and is really a competitive differentiator for us.

Our next question is coming from Jeff Van Rhee from Craig-Hallum Capital Group.

A couple for me, Theresa. On the RFGL side, I mean, obviously, a ton of interest there now HawkEye is out and you've got a public comp. And I think the space is starting to get a lot more attention. Can you just help scope back to the prior question, can you help scope a deal, kind of what you're seeing in terms of maybe the time line of a deal in the pipeline, when it shows up, how long you think it takes between sort of showing up and getting into pilot and subscription, you mentioned constellation. And maybe just what a midsized deal might look like in terms of dollars?

Yes. And every single deal is different, right? So it's really hard to talk about what is going to be the average. I will say things do move faster in the United States. And on the RFGL side, those can move very quickly within a matter of weeks. And this is what is so exciting about RFGL capability because a lot of it is driven about real operational capabilities that are needed given events that are happening around the world. On the European side, it is slower. There's no doubt. And the time line from going to pilot into data subscription is really very much dependent on the country, their procurement mechanisms and their time lines of things. So it's hard to give you just in average. When it comes to deal sizes, I think we've mentioned before, you look at a month-long pilot and you're talking mid-6-figure range maybe. There's definitely a lot in the pipeline that gets to 7-figure range. And then, of course, it moves up as you start talking about sovereign constellations, multiyear capabilities, et cetera. I think that gives you the range.

Yes. That's helpful. And on the NOAA front, I mean, obviously, IDIQ and the budget intentions there look to just be absolutely massive. Congrats on the quick early light on the Hyperspectral Microwave Sounder. Just curious, you commented a bit on the data. Could you just expand a little bit more on that in terms of are you far enough into that? Have you got a broad enough data set to give you the conviction that the data quality relative to NOAA needs is there or better at this point?

The short answer is yes. We're delivering that data right now. I believe, in fact, we are getting paid for that data. And we expect to continue to have procurement around that data set from that satellite that is in orbit today. And I think I will add the opportunities with NOAA, we talked about some of that pipeline. We mentioned over $150 million of stuff that is in year between the various data types, RO as well as multiple related to microwave sounding. I can't underemphasize enough how different this is from where NOAA was in prior years. Like it's really pretty exciting, all the stuff that is being worked on right now. And the team is pretty hectic, I have to say, responding to these.

Yes, it's great to see the move to commercial actually really playing out in scale. Maybe one last. Just curious if you could comment on the broader space services pipeline. You had a nice signing a little while back with Deloitte 8-figure deal. You were just commenting on the Munich capacity coming online. So obviously, you've got capacity proven ability to launch. Just curious what that's doing to your space services pipeline and how it's evolving.

Yes. I think a lot of the space services pipeline is really focused on what we're able to do on the government side. And that's going to be government, that's also going to be, I would say, commercial companies that ultimately are serving the government market, right? Because that's where all the budgets are. And what everyone cares about is the ability to rapidly deploy things and rapidly deploy new things as we go forward and the geopolitical situation continues to change. And that's exactly where Spire shines and why it's important that we have that manufacturing capacity already deployed. We already know how to build those satellites at scale. And so I'm pretty excited about the space services pipeline there as well and what the team has done as work over the past year in getting us ready for scaling.

Yes. Great. I'll add maybe one last, if I could. Ali, on the $5.8 million of legal accounting professional, it sounds like that's going to come out over the year. Can you just give us maybe any sense of how quickly those costs can come out and get down to a more manageable baseline?

I think it's kind of probably back half of the year should decline more significantly than the first half of the year, Jeff. That's probably the most I can say about that.

Your next question today is coming from Austin Moeller from Canaccord Genuity.

So my first question, on the $8 billion NOAA ProTech IDIQ, what modalities of data are being sought? I think there's 8 mentioned. And how are the funds from that $8 billion dispersed between the different modalities like microwave, reflectometry, occultation, sea height, ice, et cetera?

Yes. So it's actually 7 data types. I think I've misspoken in a few places and said 8, right, when it first came out. So it's 7, 4 of which we are able to do. The IDIQ is being responded to right now by industry, right? So it's going to be something where multiple companies are tied into it. And then NOAA will issue task orders over the next, I think, it's 5 years related to that IDIQ. So multiple companies are going to get orders under that. NOAA likes to have at least 2 parties getting data orders in all the different types that they do. So you can't really give a number, and it's not really a zero-sum game around that IDIQ. I mean, I think $8 billion is a huge number and just gives you a sense of how serious NOAA is about this. What I can tell you is that NOAA is very focused on radio-occultation and microwave being the 2 most important ones that they want to get going from a procurement perspective. And they continue to talk to us about the reflectometry and the ocean surface winds as also the next one that they have as a priority. And so of course, this will continue to evolve over the years, but I think gives you a good indication of some of their top priorities are areas where we have a very strong offering to give.

Okay. And are you able to give an update on where we're at on EURIALO satellite production? And I guess, what the European Space Agency and the European Union's current thinking is now that the ministerial budget is in place?

Yes. So the team has been working and building stuff on those satellites, and they start doing integration in the Munich facility, I think it's later this month, in fact. So I mean, their work is happening on that and ongoing. The EURIALO program was given additional budget coming out of the ministerial. And so how this continues to evolve is an ongoing discussion between all the various parties. European Space Agency is involved, the DLR, the German Space Agency is involved, right? All of our different consortium partners are involved and of course, continued interest and priority through the European Union. So it's an ongoing process, I would say.

Our next question today is coming from Chris Quilty from Quilty Space.

Theresa, I just want to follow up on the NOAA opportunities and an exciting pipeline there. How should we think about that in terms of capital contribution? In other words, as you branch out into different sensors, does that require different classes of satellites or different orbital inclinations? Are there any of these where there might be a large contribution? And with the contracting, are you seeing opportunities for government NRE?

Yes. So in terms of capacity, we have a lot of capacity on orbit, and I would say enough capacity on orbit for radio-occultation for what we would do with reflectometry. And of course, we just mentioned already the first satellite even has relevant capacity from a microwave perspective. So as we would go forward, more microwave sounding satellites is where this would become relevant as part of our ongoing replenishment and deployment across the constellation. The HyMS satellite, you may be aware, is already fitting within the normal form factor that we do. You may also recall that the development of that HyMS payload and satellite was actually something that was supported through a customer contract in the first place. So that's actually a great example of some government-funded NRE that turns into then capacity and capability that we can then deploy and sell as a data service. So I think it's a fantastic example of that.

Got you. I guess my question was, as you add capabilities, whether it's different phenomenologies on the weather side or RFGL and do you get to the point where you have to build individual fleets of satellites? Or do you think the form factor you're working from, you still have bandwidth to be able to add multiple technologies onto the same platform?

Yes. I mean our platform already supports the TEC, the RO, the R, now the microwave sounding. And so I don't want this to be something where we're going and building brand-new big things, spending tons of NRE that is outside of our wheelhouse. I think we have a great technology platform base that we've shown we can deploy in a cost-effective way. And we have tons of opportunity with NOAA and more broadly from that to be able to use the platform that we have. And of course, we continue to deploy new technology. We talked about the anomaly detection in the comments that we shared earlier. So we continue to do R&D on that. But this is like scalable business rather than trying to do NRE all over the place.

Great. And speaking of new technologies, congrats on the success with the mini crosslinks. Is that a product that you expect to both proliferate across your constellation as a standard? And is it something that you would sell on a merchant basis?

So it's definitely something that we look at as enabling technology that just makes our constellation and our platform better. And I suppose that's an open question, whether it's something that we would also make available more broadly in the industry. Right now, I'm focused on making sure we take it from the final demonstration R&D phases into something that is deployed across our network.

We reached the end of our question-and-answer session. And ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's teleconference and webcast. You may disconnect your line at this time, and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.