Barry Saunders
Analyst · Merrill Lynch. Your line is now open
Thank you, Roger. Earlier this morning we released preliminary earnings estimates for the second quarter and year-to-date 2015. These results are preliminary as earlier last week we were made aware that results at one contract packaging center in Mexico had been overstated. Although, the review was not complete based on the work done to-date, we estimate that the impact on the previously reported first quarter 2015 net income was $3 million, resulting in corrected first quarter GAAP earnings of $0.83 per share and first quarter corrected base earnings of $0.53 per share. In addition, we currently estimate that the cumulative pre-tax earnings correction for the years 2012 to 2014 will be approximately $30 million with the split by year and the tax impact yet to be determined. We have engaged outside accounting and legal consultants to assist us with this review, which we expect to complete over the coming few weeks. Final findings will be fully reflected in the second quarter 10-Q and corrected historical statements when they are filed. The business model at this one particular location is very complex and we will obviously include a complete review of related internal controls to determine what changes need to be made in design or execution to prevent such issues in the future. We realized that you will have many questions. However, because the review is ongoing with a lot more work to do, we’re not in the position to share anymore specific information about this event at this point. Although, not able to finalize results for the current or previous years until the review is complete, we wanted to go ahead and provide an update on our estimate for the quarter rather than delaying the release of any information about the quarter until the review is complete. Based on what we know at this time, we’ve estimated that GAAP earnings for the second quarter will be $0.61 and that base earnings will be $0.66. The difference between GAAP and base is due to restructuring cost partially offset by the favorable tax benefit of the partial release revaluation reserve on deferred tax assets in Spain. Even with the lower than expected earnings from the contract packaging facility, we’re still within our previously issued guidance of $0.64 to $0.69, as a result of a very solid quarter operationally. Until the work is complete, we cannot provide the comparable 2014 quarterly numbers. In terms of the base P&L for the quarter sales were $1.249 million, base gross profit was estimated at $241 million with our gross profit percentage 19.3%. S&A was estimated to be $131 million resulting in base EBIT of $109.5 million ended EBIT margin of 8.8%. I will go ahead and mention, the pension cost were higher year-over-year for the quarter by $4.6 million, which is about $1.9 million higher than what we expected due to an updated pension expense number coming from the finalization of the actuarial evaluation which does normally get completed in the second quarter. For the full year, pension expense will be $3.8 million higher than the estimates we had provided at the beginning of the year. It is noteworthy that without the pension increase in the quarter the EBIT margin for the quarter would have been 9.1%. The low EBIT interest was $13.6 million just slightly higher than last year due to the financing of the Weidenhammer acquisition. Taxes on base earnings are estimated to be $30.9 million with an effective tax rate of 32.3% generally in line with where we thought it would be. Equity and affiliates when combined with minority interest was $3 million and similar to last year. Thus sending up with estimated base earnings of $67.9 million or $0.66 per share. Because we have not modified the 2014 numbers or the previously mentioned issue in Mexico, we are not able to provide total company bridges and I will go ahead and provide some insight into the drivers of the year-over-year change in both sales and EBIT for the other segments. Starting with sales, excluding any changes in display and packaging, volume for the rest of the company was up 1.5%, we were pleased to see a 3.5% increase in consumer packaging driven by 3.6% increase in global rigid paper excluding the impact of the Weidenhammer acquisition. Volume was also up 2% in plastics and just over 5% in flexibles. In paper and industrial converted products overall volume was down 1.5% with both global tube and core and global paper volume each down about that amount. And the protective solutions business had another strong quarter with overall volume up 6.3%. Selling prices for the three segments other than display and packaging were down $16 million due most notably the lower year-over-year OCC, old corrugated containers prices which have the direct impact on the pricing in the paper and industrial converted products segment as many contracts reset at this year’s March price of $80 per ton based on prices in the Southeast versus $125 per ton the same period in the previous year. And pricing throughout the quarter was lower in our recycling business across all materials including OCC. In the consumer segment prices were lower due to resin-based selling prices in plastics. Acquisitions added approximately $70 million to the top line driven primarily by the Weidenhammer acquisition in the consumer packaging segment. The negative change in all other category of – for sales for the three segments was $47 million and that’s due primarily to the translation of sales in foreign currency due to the strengthening of the dollar against most all currencies. In terms of the change in EBIT for the three segments other than display and packaging, volume and mix combined had about $1 million favorable impact on EBIT which was a little wider than the change in volume growth due primarily to mix. But this was really isolated, most notably to the paper and industrial converted products segment, just do simply to the mix of paper sales including more export sales and corrugating and the sales mix in our reels business due to lower steel reels sales. Price cost for the quarter was very favorable – favorably impacting earnings by $15 million year-over-year, with roughly half coming from the consumer packaging business and quotiently a nice increase in protective solutions as well. Acquisitions added freight at $3 million to EBIT driven primarily by the Weidenhammer acquisition where this fair to say results all running lighter than expected with the delay in synergies associated with the regulatory review that took place in the UK which was just recently cleared and the impact of increased pricing for materials from one supplier. Manufacturing productivity for the three segments was right at $10 million which was very solid, but a little wider than our target, but not surprising with the lower volume we experienced in the global paper and tube and core business and the difficult comparison in paper operations which really ran well both this quarter and the same quarter last year. In terms of all other cost for the three segments excluding display and packaging, they were higher year-over-year by $15 million. This always includes normal inflation which was about $13 million for these businesses, as well as the translation impact at the EBIT level which was negative $5 million year-over-year for these three segments due again to the dollar being stronger. All this that has been partially offset by about $3 million in net lower fixed cost spending as we’re starting to see the ramp of the implementation of the fixed cost reductions from our fixed cost study. I’ll go ahead and mention that after interest in taxes translation impacted earnings per share by almost $0.04. And as previously mentioned, pension costs were higher year-over-year by $4.6 million including the impact of the half year cash drop of the higher than projected pension cost I mentioned earlier. In terms of results by segments, which was included in the tables to the press release, you can see that in the consumer packaging segment sales were up 12% due most notably to the Weidenhammer acquisition. But also to the previously mentioned volume improvement partially offset on a negative impact of translation, while EBIT improved by almost 33% driven by favorable price cost and strong productivity resulting in a very strong EBIT margin of 10.7% versus 9% for the same period last year. Paper and industrial converted products trade sales were down 8.4% due primarily to the previously mentioned lower selling prices the impact of translation and to a lesser extent the slightly lower volume. EBIT went down a greater amount due to the very light manufacturing productivity as previously mentioned which did not offset all other cost changes and as mentioned pension costs were higher all resulting in the drop in the EBIT margin to 8.5% versus 9.5% last year. Pension expense does have a disproportionate impact on this segment and it is noteworthy that without the higher pension expense, the EBIT margin would have been 9.1%. And finally, protected solution sales were higher about 4.8% due to the stronger volume, while EBIT improved 39% due to favorable price cost and strong productivity resulting in an improvement in the EBIT margin in this segment, 10.6% versus 8% in the same period last year. In terms of outlook for the third quarter and the balance of the year, we’re projecting that earnings will be in the range of $0.65 to $0.70 per share this is on a base basis for the third quarter. This guidance assumes no significant change in overall economic activity or any major shifts in price costs, but does reflect of course normal seasonality. For the full year, we’re now projecting the earnings will be in the range of $2.48 to $2.58 per share on a base basis. The range has been lower due to the previously mentioned higher pension expense, the delay in the implementing synergies related to the Weidenhammer acquisition and by the updated estimate for the underlying performance from the contract packaging facility. The cash flow and balance sheet statements will be provided when numbers are finalized. But I will go ahead and mention that in terms of cash flow, cash from operations was estimated to be $115 million for the second quarter. So after capital expenditures of $45 million and dividends $35 million, free cash flow for the quarter was $35 million. For the full year, we’re still projecting free cash flow will be roughly $140 million. We now think capital spending is trending somewhat lighter than expected by roughly $25 million, but this will essentially be offset by lower – than projected cash from operations due to the lower projected earnings. Some higher tax payments and just some fine tuning of other model estimates. That completes my overview of the preliminary results for the quarter. And I’ll now turn it over to Jack for some additional comments.