Earnings Labs

Sonoco Products Company (SON)

Q4 2009 Earnings Call· Wed, Feb 10, 2010

$49.11

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the fourth quarter 2009 Sonoco Products earnings conference call. My name is Chanel and I'll be your operator for today. (Operator's Instructions) I would now like to turn the conference over to your host for today's call, Mr. Roger Schrum, Vice President of Investor Relations.

Roger Schrum

President

Thank you, Chanel. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Sonoco's 2009 fourth quarter and full year earnings investor call. This call is being conducted on February 10th, 2010. Joining me today are Harris DeLoach, Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer, and Charlie Hupfer, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Our financial results were released before the market opened today and are available via our website at sonoco.com. Let me begin by stating that today's investor call may contain a number of forward looking statements that are based on current expectations, estimates, and projections. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Therefore, actual results may differ materially. Additional information about factors that could cause different results and information about the use by the company of non-GAAP financial measures is available in our annual report and on the company's website. With that introduction I'll now turn it over to Charlie Hupfer.

Charles J. Hupfer

Management

Thank you, Roger. Today, Sonoco reported fourth quarter sales of $1.019 billion and EPS of $0.46 a share. The EPS of $0.46 a share is in conformity with US GAAP which means it includes restructuring expenses and one-time unusual gains and losses. Base EPS was $0.58 per share compared with last year's $0.49. That's a $0.09 difference a year-over-year improvement of 19%. Now, base EPS excludes those restructuring changes and any one-time gains and losses. Our guidance for the quarter, and that's the guidance that we updated on December 4th at our analyst meeting, was for a range of $0.49-$0.52, so we came in $0.06 per share better than the high side of the guidance. So obviously we're very pleased with this quarter. Compared with our guidance, taxes were a little bit more favorable than I expected them to be when I gave the guidance or the revised guidance in early December, and that added about $0.03 more per share than I was thinking at the time. The other pleasant surprise was that volume in the US was stronger in December than we expected, and that also meant that productivity was good. So in other words, we didn't see as much of the usual December slowdown as we usually see. I'll start off now by reconciling as reported results to base results. In fourth quarter 2009 we reported restructuring charges of $9.1 million. After tax that's $6.5 million or a rounded $0.07 a share. The restructurings comprise largely of holdover items from previous quarters. Also in the fourth quarter we took a $5.3 million tax charge related to a tax law enacted in November in Mexico that effectively eliminated consolidated tax returns retrospective all the way back to 1999. This equates to about $0.05 per share. So if you start…

Operator

Operator

(Operator's Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of George Staphos with Banc of America/Merrill Lynch. George Staphos - Banc of America/Merrill Lynch: Thanks. Hi, everyone. Good morning and good luck on the quarter and congratulations on the year. Very quickly, Charlie, can you define what modest means in terms of price cost for the first quarter? It would seem that with OCC being where it is right now and knowing the tons that you buy could have a fairly meaningful effect in the quarter, how are you offsetting that either — I mean, you're limited pricing wise until the second quarter, do you have anything in inventory that you're able to use at the present time so how is that more of a modest hit than a bigger hit?

Harris E. DeLoach Jr.

Analyst · Ghansham Panjabi of Robert W

George, this is Harris. Obviously we've got that part of the business is already set, the contracts, and obviously that is what it is so we will have a modest squeeze there. We announced a price increase on February the 1st on both the board side and the converting side and I would say we're getting good traction with that. We're looking forward looking at OCC and what we think OCC is going to do over the next couple of months and are contemplating future increases and we'll probably be fairly aggressive with that. I would say that we've always had a very strong productivity initiative in this company. The way I define productivity, in its broad form we had about $120 million last year. So as we look out in the first quarter and we look at our productivity efforts, we look at our recovered paper, we look at the contracts that we have in place, we feel like that we will be able to mitigate that run-up in the quarter and obviously that's reflected in the guidance that we've given and we term that modest. So I'd like to say it's Herculean and we're covering it, but it's modest in our ballpark.

Charles J. Hupfer

Management

It's probably only about $0.02-$0.03 a share.

Harris E. DeLoach Jr.

Analyst · Ghansham Panjabi of Robert W

$0.02-$0.03 a share. George Staphos - Banc of America/Merrill Lynch: Okay. I appreciate that color. The second question and I'll turn it over, your business and especially on the industrial side are pretty short cycle. Generally your customers don't like to build inventory, nonetheless it's apparent that OCC was going to head higher into the first quarter. Do you think any of the better than expected volume was around pre buy? And then turning the question around, yes you've seen better than expected volume and that's great, but how sustainable do you really think it is given the fact that your businesses are fairly short cycle and where are you seeing the relative strength either across consumer or industrial?

Harris E. DeLoach Jr.

Analyst · Ghansham Panjabi of Robert W

George, you basically asked two or three questions. The first one was about an inventory bill based on OCC and I don't think there's any of that actually on the converted side, for no other reason than the OCC was such a rapid run up I don't believe you would've had any anticipation of that. You could've had some small paper sales as a result of announced paper increases, but that's minimal. As Charlie said we saw better volumes than obviously we've seen in some time in the fourth quarter. As I look forward into this year and into the January levels, clearly the first quarter is always somewhat our lowest quarter, but having said that, we've seen at least no greater downturn than we would've expected, and perhaps a little upside in January in both consumer and in industrial. George Staphos - Banc of America/Merrill Lynch: Okay. I'll turn it over, thanks.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ghansham Panjabi of Robert W. Baird. Ghansham Panjabi - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.: Hey, guys. On the volume increase in matrix, Charlie, I think you said up 26%. Most of your competitors in rigid plastics certainly weren't even close to that number, was there a big customer added in that segment? Can you give us some more color there? Thanks.

Harris E. DeLoach Jr.

Analyst · Ghansham Panjabi of Robert W

Ghansham, we have added some more customers in that area. I don't know that it was one big one or two big ones, but we've certainly grown that business nicely over the last couple of quarters and I think it's a cumulation of all that and we did have some pretty high volumes tied to the energy drink and to the hand sanitizers that Charlie talked about. But I think it's just a cumulative effect of how we've been growing that business. Ghansham Panjabi - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.: Okay. And then one them that seems to be emerging is some of the big branded food beverage and consumer staple customers seem to be more aggressive in defending share against private label, has that benefited you on the branded side as it relates to your consumer business? And also, has that helped improve some of the backlog impacting services too?

Harris E. DeLoach Jr.

Analyst · Ghansham Panjabi of Robert W

We certainly, to the extent that we're seeing the defense to branded products, we will benefit from that. We are benefiting, but we will continue to benefit for it. We also have some private label business which is obviously growing as well, and we are seeing some pickup in the services side as I think we're certainly seeing more promotions in the fourth quarter and we've seen more promotions early in this year. Ghansham Panjabi - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.: Okay. Thanks a lot, Harris.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Chip Dillon of Credit Suisse.

Chip Dillon - Credit Suisse

Analyst · Chip Dillon of Credit Suisse

Yes, good afternoon. Charlie, I had a question for you. Maybe I'm missing something, but it looks like you might have shifted like $10 million in revenue from the consumer segment to services after the third quarter. Did we get that right? Was there a restatement there in revenues?

Charles J. Hupfer

Management

There might have been a modest shift and I don't have a number for that, but we do have a business. It's our Trident business which does advertising —

Harris E. DeLoach Jr.

Analyst · Chip Dillon of Credit Suisse

Right, brand management.

Charles J. Hupfer

Management

— and we did physically move that into a different manager that had the effect of dropping that into the packaging services.

Chip Dillon - Credit Suisse

Analyst · Chip Dillon of Credit Suisse

Okay. That might be it.

Harris E. DeLoach Jr.

Analyst · Chip Dillon of Credit Suisse

It's an amazing catch.

Charles J. Hupfer

Management

That is a great catch.

Chip Dillon - Credit Suisse

Analyst · Chip Dillon of Credit Suisse

We try to do our homework. Let me ask you this, it's interesting how a lot of people that are subject to buying corrugated OCC out there are very nervous or at least guiding down their first quarter, and is it just fair to say that your ability to move that pricing is much more real time if you will because you're not making boxes. In other words, what you got in January stuck in January?

Harris E. DeLoach Jr.

Analyst · Chip Dillon of Credit Suisse

I think, Chip, the strength of our ability goes back to our integrated system where we obviously have our collection facilities which gives us a significant leg up because we're selling to the outside world and covering some 40% or so of that run up. That plus the way we manage the business with contracts, with pass throughs, and just the way we fairly aggressively move pricing, if you look back historically you look back over the last three years, five years, eight years, 10 years, we historically have had positive price costs and as a result of all of those things the model is working thew ay it should.

Chip Dillon - Credit Suisse

Analyst · Chip Dillon of Credit Suisse

Gotcha. And the last question, in light of maybe what's happened in Europe and maybe that's not going to be a big deal and just in general, is there any risk or are you concerned that maybe some of the strength you saw in December, and I know this was asked differently, might have been sort of a buy ahead? And it looks like you are taking it rather conservatively. You're not really bolstering the guidance that much beyond the pension, but could we actually see it go the way other way a little bit in the first quarter ora re your backlogs making you feel like no that wasn't just an acceleration by December?

Harris E. DeLoach Jr.

Analyst · Chip Dillon of Credit Suisse

Well obviously that was a question that I think George Staphos asked earlier and the answer is we see no indication or saw no indication of a buy in. Now, our order cycle is a pretty short cycle. We don't carry a lot of inventories. Our customers don't carry a lot of inventories, and what we see talking to our customers is their business has improved and continues to improve and we are seeing that in our business and we don't see any indication of an inventory bill frankly anywhere around the world.

Chip Dillon - Credit Suisse

Analyst · Chip Dillon of Credit Suisse

Gotcha. And then the last thing is it kind of rung very clearly and I know you touched on this a little bit in December, but with your balance sheet again being the strongest position it's been in decades, do you still see, as I think you suggested back in December that there's still some good solid assets or businesses out there that you could see buying this year as people look at what might happen to their personal tax situations, et cetera?

Harris E. DeLoach Jr.

Analyst · Chip Dillon of Credit Suisse

I think that situation still exists, Chip, and I'll be very disappointed if we were sitting here in 2011 and Sonoco was sitting here with the same debt to capital ratio that we have today and not made taking advantage of some of those opportunities that I am certain will be there.

Chip Dillon - Credit Suisse

Analyst · Chip Dillon of Credit Suisse

Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Claudia Hueston of JPMorgan. Ariel - JPMorgan Chase & Company: It's actually Ariel sitting in for Claudia. I had a question on the consumer business. Your margins have improved, I think they were up almost 300 basis points year over year. I just was wondering if you see any type of a margins squeeze there from resin prices going up?

Harris E. DeLoach Jr.

Analyst · Claudia Hueston of JPMorgan

Obviously we've seen resin prices escalate in the last couple of weeks, but most of our plastic businesses, they are under longer-term contracts that had pass throughs and while we may lag or get ahead in the quarter, generally they reset over time. I would say that if you look at the whole consumer segment and you look at that margin increase, we've had a lot of startups in that business that it's all been dragging let's say for the last 18 months or so. Those operations are up and running close to expectations now and so that has clearly improved the overall margins of that sector. Ariel - JPMorgan Chase & Company: And just to followup on that, can you be a little bit more specific on what consumer businesses have ramped up?

Harris E. DeLoach Jr.

Analyst · Claudia Hueston of JPMorgan

Well, we had several start-up plastics businesses and you start up a business, obviously it doesn't hit full speed at day one and so they are pretty much hitting up to close to full speed and we've had a small operation in Asia that was a startup and it's performing much better. So obviously the sector is up and we're seeing improved margins, but I don't see anything that's going to squeeze those margins in the short term. Ariel - JPMorgan Chase & Company: Okay, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Christopher D. Manuel of KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Christopher D. Manuel - KeyBanc Capital Markets

Analyst · Christopher D. Manuel of KeyBanc Capital Markets

Good afternoon, gentlemen. A couple of quick questions for you. First, more of a bookkeeping one for Charlie I think. In equity affiliates, that seemed to jump up quite a bit, was there anything unusual in there or can you give us a little more color just on that specific component?

Charles J. Hupfer

Management

There really wasn't anything unusual. There was an equity component — Conitex is the company that we have a joint venture with whenever we joint ventured our tube business a decade ago and their business was much improved. Showa Products is our Japanese affiliate and their business was much improved and then RTS which is the partitions joint venture that we have, I think that they all just showed improvement year over year and I think that reflects the same sort of trend that we saw in the industrial side of our business so it really wasn't anything special there, but it was a nice pickup.

Christopher D. Manuel - KeyBanc Capital Markets

Analyst · Christopher D. Manuel of KeyBanc Capital Markets

So this is probably then a reasonable run rate to consider for 2010?

Charles J. Hupfer

Management

Probably on the high side, but nevertheless not far off. I mean, there's always some year-end adjustments, but by and large it would be on the high side, but a reasonable run rate.

Christopher D. Manuel - KeyBanc Capital Markets

Analyst · Christopher D. Manuel of KeyBanc Capital Markets

That's helpful. And then the next component that I wanted to maybe get into a little bit was I missed some of the volume numbers that I think you gave out. You talked about matrix being up 25%-26%. Could you run through a few of the other key components, composite can, tube, core, et cetera, as to how those did in the quarter, where specifically some of that upside came from?

Charles J. Hupfer

Management

Sure. And the matrix volume was up and that just reflects some of the changes that we've talked about. Composite can volume was up probably in the 2% range and what we saw there was the food can, and that's principally the coffee can conversions were a big part of that as well as there was still some year-over-year growth in powdered infant formula, that conversion. So we were up significantly in those two major conversions that have taken place recently, and they were offset by snacks which have been down year over year and caulk cartridges. The paper caulk cartridge that sell into the housing industry have clearly been down year over year, so we had a net out about 2% positive with all the positive really coming from coffee can conversion, VIF conversion — but then there were some other categories. Motor oil was up, nuts were up, all in all it was a good volume quarter for the domestic composite can business. In Asia our volume was up, rigid plastics volume was up, so we had good volume increases generally in the whole consumer segment.

Christopher D. Manuel - KeyBanc Capital Markets

Analyst · Christopher D. Manuel of KeyBanc Capital Markets

And on the tube and core side?

Charles J. Hupfer

Management

On the tube and core side, Europe was up around 7.3%. In the US it was flat, but that was a mixed bag because some of our volume like textile volume was up 21%, film volume was up six, but paper mill core volume was down year over year which I think just reflects what's going on in the paper industry. Our Asian tube and core volume was up significantly. It was up about 30%. We were up 14% in Latin America. All of our regions except Venezuela were strong. Paper was up both in the US and in Canada. Paper recycling was up so as opposed to the first quarter. This is a nice turnaround where I'm talking about volumes up. Volumes were up as I may have said in the packaging services overall $11 million and some of that pass through volume was down so our CorrFlex volume was down $16 million so generally good volume increases.

Christopher D. Manuel - KeyBanc Capital Markets

Analyst · Christopher D. Manuel of KeyBanc Capital Markets

Okay, that's helpful. And then kind of as we translate that into 2010 I think you kind of, if memory serves, laid out the volume assumptions that you originally had of I want to say it was 6% or so in the consumer side and three in the industrial side with half of that being the corrugated stuff. Could you maybe update us and give us what the new end to those ranges would represent with your extra volume in there embedded into your guidance, please?

Charles J. Hupfer

Management

Sure, I can come close to that. In the guidance we would've assumed that the industrial side of our business is probably up let's just say 5.5%. And now of course some of that's already in the bag because we obviously had a good fourth quarter and we're assuming that we're growing from those levels. Volumes in the consumer side, and I'm speaking generally now, would've been up about 1.5%, but I did talk about, just a moment ago, about the loss of some business due to a bid. If we took that into consideration volumes there would've been up about 3% and if you put it all together the blended average would be somewhere between 4%-4.5% and then that goes up on the high side of the guidance more like 5.5%.

Christopher D. Manuel - KeyBanc Capital Markets

Analyst · Christopher D. Manuel of KeyBanc Capital Markets

Okay. So 4%-5.5% for consumer for your — that's what's in your 2010 guidance assumptions?

Charles J. Hupfer

Management

Well, blended is about 4%. Industrial would be higher, more like 5.5%, and consumer more like three. Of course we're talking about year over year comparisons so the consumer side of our business wasn't down as much as the industrial side.

Christopher D. Manuel - KeyBanc Capital Markets

Analyst · Christopher D. Manuel of KeyBanc Capital Markets

Okay that's helpful, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Al Kabili of Macquarie Capital Advisors.

Al Kabili - Macquarie Capital Advisors

Analyst · Al Kabili of Macquarie Capital Advisors

Hi. Good afternoon, guys. Question I guess on how the corrugated medium sales to external customers outside of GP is ramping up?

Harris E. DeLoach Jr.

Analyst · Al Kabili of Macquarie Capital Advisors

Al, I would say it's positive. We have a ramp down with GP over three quarters, but the outside sales are going, I would say above expectations.

Al Kabili - Macquarie Capital Advisors

Analyst · Al Kabili of Macquarie Capital Advisors

Okay. So are you sold out at this point of the 25% in the first quarter that you'd be selling externally?

Harris E. DeLoach Jr.

Analyst · Al Kabili of Macquarie Capital Advisors

We're sold out through February.

Al Kabili - Macquarie Capital Advisors

Analyst · Al Kabili of Macquarie Capital Advisors

Okay. And then switching back to CorrFlex a little bit, the lost bid that you highlighted, was that something that occurred new in the fourth quarter or are you talking previously?

Harris E. DeLoach Jr.

Analyst · Al Kabili of Macquarie Capital Advisors

It occurred in the late third quarter, fourth quarter.

Al Kabili - Macquarie Capital Advisors

Analyst · Al Kabili of Macquarie Capital Advisors

Okay. And then how should we think about the sales impact, rough order of magnitude how much of a headwind this presents as we look to 2010 and what's your outlook for CorrFlex? Are you seeing any signs of more promotional activity on the display business?

Charles J. Hupfer

Management

We've made estimates that there's about $40 million at risk, probably a little bit less of that will affect 2010, but that's a pretty good order of magnitude.

Al Kabili - Macquarie Capital Advisors

Analyst · Al Kabili of Macquarie Capital Advisors

Okay. And then how about the outlook, how is bidding activity shaping up? Are you seeing more opportunity in terms of bids or about the same?

Harris E. DeLoach Jr.

Analyst · Al Kabili of Macquarie Capital Advisors

Oh we've not only seen it we picked up some nice new bids, particularly from our corporate customers without naming which ones and we fully expect to cover that $40 million, Al.

Al Kabili - Macquarie Capital Advisors

Analyst · Al Kabili of Macquarie Capital Advisors

Okay, great. And then final questions I guess is on the tube and core business that the better seasonal trends which were surprising, any sense as to whether some of that might be share gains at all or do you see your share relatively stable at the moment?

Harris E. DeLoach Jr.

Analyst · Al Kabili of Macquarie Capital Advisors

If I had to guess I would say the shares are relatively normal. That could've been a small amount of share gain. I think the gratifying thing to me is I think we've certainly seen a market pick up and as Charlie mentioned, wherever we look around the globe we're seeing it whether it's Asia or whether it's in frontier Europe, Western Europe, South America, or North America. We're seeing improvements in those market segments which is obviously not only helpful for Sunoco, but for everyone in general.

Al Kabili - Macquarie Capital Advisors

Analyst · Al Kabili of Macquarie Capital Advisors

Okay, good. And then lastly on use of free cash flow, given the strength and your leverage, I know that priorities acquisitions, but have you considered more on the share repurchase front at all and I guess given you just got out of a board meeting, any hints on what you might do with the dividend this year? Thanks.

Harris E. DeLoach Jr.

Analyst · Al Kabili of Macquarie Capital Advisors

Well, we have moved a dividend which I think was announced this morning or last evening so going forward we've always said that historically we look at the dividend in April and we will do that. There's always a bias. We have 26 or 27 years of increasing dividends. There's no guarantee of what we will do, but we will clearly look at it and do what's appropriate for our shareholders. The cash, I mean you hit the nail on the head. Our first priority is going to be to grow the business and I said earlier to someone I'm going to be very disappointed if we don't take advantage of our cash position, our leverage position, and make some nice acquisitions this year. But we're not going to be foolish about it. We will stick to our criteria of being accretive in the first year and returning our cost of capital within a 3-4 year period of time. And we've always said at the end of the year if we haven't made acquisitions we would look at a share buyback. We have done that historically in the past and I wouldn't rule it out, but it's clearly not our first priority.

Al Kabili - Macquarie Capital Advisors

Analyst · Al Kabili of Macquarie Capital Advisors

Okay great, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Christopher Shunk of Deutsche Bank.

Christopher Shunk - Deutsche Bank

Analyst · Christopher Shunk of Deutsche Bank

Good afternoon, guys. Hey, Charlie, I was wondering if you could give us a few more details on the pension plan? I think you mentioned that it was 86% funded now, but could you give us some specific numbers on with the fair market value and the projected benefit obligation?

Charles J. Hupfer

Management

The total plan, we're talking about the US defined benefit plan which we have really curtailed last year at this time 10 years out. So the plan will be in decline, but the total portfolio at December 31st was $782 million and that compares with $605 million last year. We were 86% funded this year, 69% funded last year, and we have a pretty balanced portfolio and overall came in at 22% for the year, 3% in the fourth quarter.

Christopher Shunk - Deutsche Bank

Analyst · Christopher Shunk of Deutsche Bank

Okay. And then what will the actual expense be in 2010?

Charles J. Hupfer

Management

Well, what we were saying is that the actual expense is about $55 million this year and I had projected that it would go down about $21 million or $23 million as a result of the changes that I talked about. That's the $100 million. That earns us at a rate of 8.5%. The 22% that we earned versus an 8.5% assumption will earn us something else and then the discount rate changes as well. So those three factors alone amount to about $0.13 of year-over-year improvement in EPS terms in the pension plan. I'm looking for some notes that I made that I sort of reconciled that on the back of an envelope to see if I could — here they are. I think I've got them right here. Yes. I think what we would expect to see is a combination of the asset performance at 22% and the $100 million contribution should provide us with a $15 million pretax savings year over year from the return component. And then because we assume in our calculation that we'll earn 8.5%, we actually earn 22% and that creates a difference as well because it's amortized and I've just assumed that that's over 11 years which I think is about right and so that would give us another $7 million of year-over-year improvement. So when you put it all together it's about $22 million of year-over-year improvement on a pretax basis times the tax rate we've been using, 39% so after tax 61. So that's $0.13 a share.

Christopher Shunk - Deutsche Bank

Analyst · Christopher Shunk of Deutsche Bank

Okay. And then on the cash side do you plan to make a contribution this year?

Charles J. Hupfer

Management

Well, we didn't have to make a contribution. We had assumed that we would have to make contributions beginning in 2010, '11, '12, and '13 and on out, but in September when the IRS changed the rules and gave us much more flexibility on the discount rate it put us in a position where we did not have to make a contribution in 2010 and so we really prefunded for obviously different reasons, but that $100 million serves as a credit so it's entirely up to our discretion whether we would fund in 2010 probably on into '11 and '12.

Christopher Shunk - Deutsche Bank

Analyst · Christopher Shunk of Deutsche Bank

Okay. And then on the acquisition front I was wondering, Harris, if you could give us some more guidance about the types of things that you would be looking at either in terms of size or type of business that you're looking at or how important those strategic considerations are versus just financial discipline?

Harris E. DeLoach Jr.

Analyst · Christopher Shunk of Deutsche Bank

Well, the strategic considerations are critical to it and that is one of the gates that's got to be strategic to our businesses now. Having said that, Sunoco doesn't need another platform. I think our business model that we had today is what we need, will support our growth clearly over the next four or five years, but the bent would be we've said we want to grow our consumer businesses so the bent would be on the consumer side of the business. Having said that, as we see opportunities to further consolidate the tubing core market around the world we'll certainly take advantage of that. As to size, gee I'd like to make one or two large acquisitions and not have to make small ones, but in our space so many of these companies are small in the $50-$75 million range. I suspect that we'll see some $50-$100 million acquisitions. As far as geographies, you shouldn't be surprised to see something in Europe, you shouldn't be surprised to see something in South America, and you shouldn't be surprised to see something in North America. So I guess what I'm saying is we've got at any time discussions going on around the world and that's certainly the case as I sit here today.

Christopher Shunk - Deutsche Bank

Analyst · Christopher Shunk of Deutsche Bank

Okay. Thanks for your help, guys.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Dan Khoshaba of KSA Capital Advisors.

Dan Khoshaba - KSA Capital Advisors

Analyst · Dan Khoshaba of KSA Capital Advisors

Hello Harris, Charlie. It's good to see that my old friend Chip Dillon can still find them (laughter) .

Harris E. DeLoach Jr.

Analyst · Dan Khoshaba of KSA Capital Advisors

He can, Dan.

Dan Khoshaba - KSA Capital Advisors

Analyst · Dan Khoshaba of KSA Capital Advisors

We worked together for many years, it was a good time. Anyway, Charlie, you had said I believe last quarter that there would be some provisions that would result in a little bit of a stepdown on some of the film or flexible packaging products. If we take that and remove it let's say from your flexible division, the contractual declines in pricing, what is your expectation for price? Have you guys been impacted at all by this move towards private label? I know that you're a big supplier to P&G and a lot of the big mobile brand names, what's taking place there?

Harris E. DeLoach Jr.

Analyst · Dan Khoshaba of KSA Capital Advisors

Dan, clearly as you look at the marketplace and you read, and I think anytime you go through a recession such as we've been through or are going through, you see the consumers taking advantage of the private label and you're seeing the retail food chains pushing their private label. I think today about 16%-17% of the US market is in private label. For instance, I think Kroeger has about 35% of their total sales so clearly it's a growing place for the business. About 12% of Sonoco's consumer sales are to private label companies. That grew in 2008 about 9% year over year. I suspect it probably grew greater than that last year although I don't have the numbers. But we have a plan to benefit from that growth on the private label side and clearly we're seeing that.

Dan Khoshaba - KSA Capital Advisors

Analyst · Dan Khoshaba of KSA Capital Advisors

That was my second question and so as you think about — you answered it without me asking. But I guess when you look at acquisitions and capital expenditures within the film flexible packaging industry, are there specific areas where you'd like to see a little bit of a better balance whether it's private label or confectionary? How do you think of the end market opportunities as opposed to just the overall segment of flexible packaging?

Harris E. DeLoach Jr.

Analyst · Dan Khoshaba of KSA Capital Advisors

Well, clearly we segment that. There's cookies and confection side, we're doing some pouch making, we're doing some pouches. We'll continue to see that grow. And I'm not prejudiced whether it's branded or whether it's private label. I'll take either one that makes sense and gives us the returns.

Dan Khoshaba - KSA Capital Advisors

Analyst · Dan Khoshaba of KSA Capital Advisors

Okay great, then last question just real quick. There was a February resin price increase and I don't know if it stuck. I know that resin costs went up a little bit in December-January. There was some talk that resin suppliers might not be in as favorable a spot as they were at the end of the year only because exports have trailed off a little bit and demand is still relatively soft overall for resin. What's your view on polyethylene price both in terms of the February announced increase and going forward?

Harris E. DeLoach Jr.

Analyst · Dan Khoshaba of KSA Capital Advisors

Dan, we think that in the short term you're going to see some resin price increases. We think that probably by mid-March or April you probably should see some tailing data on it. There's been a lot of capacity taken out of the resin side with downtime and as that comes back I think the supply side will probably drive that down. That's our read, for what it's worth.

Dan Khoshaba - KSA Capital Advisors

Analyst · Dan Khoshaba of KSA Capital Advisors

Good enough. Good quarter, guys.

Operator

Operator

And your final question comes from the line of George Staphos of Banc of America/Merrill Lynch. George Staphos - Banc of America/Merrill Lynch: Thanks. Hi, guys. A couple of quick ones hopefully to finish up. Charles, you mentioned what your capital spending was going to be this, now could you remind us? And how do you see that trending between larger business?

Charles J. Hupfer

Management

Well, I could give you our estimate in total. For the year 2009 we were at $104 million and we've assumed that we'd be more like $125-$130 million in 2010. Last year 2008 was 123 so sort of an ordinary run rate might be in the $125 million so that's what we're expecting to go back to, $125-$130 million. That answers the numbers part of the question.

Harris E. DeLoach Jr.

Analyst · Ghansham Panjabi of Robert W

George, obviously we went through this in the budget session. I don't have it in my mind, but clearly we've got a lot of growth projects in the pipeline, particularly on the consumer side of the business and I would have to guess that the majority of this spending, the growth capital is clearly on the consumer side of the business. The maintaining is whatever the maintaining is. George Staphos - Banc of America/Merrill Lynch: Is it fairly evenly split between geographies? So are you growing the domestic consumer as quickly as you're growing the international consumer or do you think —

Harris E. DeLoach Jr.

Analyst · Ghansham Panjabi of Robert W

We're growing the domestic consumer more rapidly than we are the international consumer. George Staphos - Banc of America/Merrill Lynch: Okay, I appreciate that.

Harris E. DeLoach Jr.

Analyst · Ghansham Panjabi of Robert W

We can give you more color than that if you like, I just don't have it off the top of my head, George. George Staphos - Banc of America/Merrill Lynch: I understand. I guess the last question then, are there anything's that Rob Tiede's doing differently now that he's back in pack services that might help the performance on a go-forward basis? And as we think about consumer excluding pack services and CorrFlex, are there any larger contracts that we have to be aware of whether in composite cans or flexibles that could come up either in '10 or '11? Thanks very much, good luck in the quarter.

Harris E. DeLoach Jr.

Analyst · Ghansham Panjabi of Robert W

George, Rob went into that business in June, the 1st of July. Rob is obviously very experienced. He's been in that business and we have seen improvement in the third quarter and the fourth quarter compared to year over year under Rob's leadership. So clearly Rob is making an impact and I expect that to in fact continue. I'm not aware of any big contacts that come up this year. We have contracts that come up all the time. We may have a Pringles contract that is in the process of renegotiations as we speak that terminates sometime in the summer for North America, but off the top of my head that's about it, George. George Staphos - Banc of America/Merrill Lynch: All right. Thanks very much, guys.

Harris E. DeLoach Jr.

Analyst · Ghansham Panjabi of Robert W

Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

And there are no further questions in the queue.

Roger Schrum

President

Thank you, Chanel. As a reminder, Sonoco's annual shareholder meeting will be held on Wednesday April 21st starting at 11am Eastern Time at the Center Theater which is located at 212 North 5th Street in Hartsville, South Carolina. For those of you unable to attend in person it will be webcast on the investor relations website of Sonoco.com. In addition, our first quarter 2010 earnings conference call will be conducted at 11:00 am on April 22nd. Our earnings release will be issued before the market opens that day. We'll be sending out electronic invitations regarding the specifics on the annual meeting webcast and the first quarter earnings conference call. Let me again thank everyone for joining us today. We appreciate your interest in the company and as always, if you have further questions please don't hesitate to contact us. Thank you again.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes the presentation. Thank you for your participation. You may now disinfect. Have a great day.