Elias Zerhouni
Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead
Well thank you, Olivier. It's a real pleasure to be here and to have the opportunity to update you all on our recent developments and how these developments are helping to build our innovation engine. So first, I'd like to start with Ablynx, if it wasn't very clear on the call, a couple of weeks back, I want to really tell you how much we value the acquisition of Ablynx and how impressed we are by the Nanobody technology and what this will bring to our discovery and development capabilities, as mentioned by Olivier. For those of you who are less familiar, this is a very unique platform, which allows the efficient development of highly specific biologic agents, which can be readily customized to hit two, three or more targets inside a single pathway. And unlike traditional antibodies, they share some of the beneficial characteristics in small molecules, which include the ability to hit tough targets, such as ion channels, and they have the potential also to be delivered by different routes, such as inhaled or topical routes. It's also important to note that this technology is derisked to a large degree, with over 45 programs underway, eight of which are in clinical trials, and more than 2,000 patients and volunteers exposed to treatment. So we were already actually attracted by this platform, to have worked with Ablynx since 2015 in MS, and to have signed a broad Nanobody collaboration in immunoinflammation in 2017. So it's fair to say that we know the technology quite well, and we know what it can bring to Sanofi, and as mentioned by Olivier, it is right in line with the transformed strategy that we have put in place of biologics, proprietary platforms and multi-targeting capabilities in novel molecules. I also want to say a few words about caplacizumab. As you heard from Olivier, we are trying to build a rare hematology disorder franchise, and this slide here shows the results of the recent HERCULES Phase 3 study of caplacizumab in patients with acute Thrombotic Thrombocytopenic Purpura, which is a disease that prevents platelets from being able to do their job and actually aggregates the platelets to the point where you have microthrombi throughout the body with a 20% mortality rate. And it tells you why this is such a promising asset. As you can see, blood platelets in this sick group of patients rapidly return to normal. With caplacizumab and the active group sparring much better than placebo across the range of relevant secondary endpoints. By including recurrence rates, days in the ICU and the hospital and especially requirements for plasma exchange, which is the only effective form of therapy today. We think the data is very compelling, especially set against the high unmet need in this potentially life threatening rare clotting disorder. As a consequence, we are confident, caplacizumab will be the first drug to be approved for aTTP, potentially in Europe in 2018 and in the U.S. next year. As Olivier said, this drug should fit in very nicely along Bioverativ's hemophilia franchise. Speaking of Bioverativ, Olivier already explained how this provides the platform to expand in rare blood disorders. But from the R&D perspective, we believe it has a number of very attractive assets in development as well. In its current field of expertise, Bioverativ is utilizing a promising peptide linker technology known as XTEN to build on its success with Eloctate and Alprolix and further lengthen the time of efficacy of the Eloctate and Alprolix molecules, and therefore reduce the dose frequency, which is a very valuable aspect of therapy in hemophilia. The need here is greatest in hemophilia; A, where extended half-life factors are currently given twice weekly and the aim is to get to once weekly dosing or less. Another particularly interesting asset is Bioverativ 009 which is in Phase 3. Recall that Agglutinin Disease and autoimmune anemia and by modulating the complement cascade, this may be the first treatment for this potentially serious disorder, which is reflected in its FDA breakthrough therapy designation. At earlier stages, Bioverativ has access to novel gene editing technology through its alliance with Sangamo, and this opens the ability and puts it at the forefront of cell therapy for two important genetic disorders; sickle cell anemia and beta thalassaemia. Both are characterized by abnormalities in red blood cell production, and this technology could help restore normal function to these patients. Switching gears now to our programs with Regeneron in oncology and immunology, we recently announced a major scale-up in the combined investment efforts behind our PD-1 cemiplimab and this followed the positive results of the pivotal study in Cutaneous Squamous Cell Carcinoma, and was based on our assessment of the opportunity across a range of tumor types, including non-small cell lung cancer. And in addition, we and Regeneron announced an acceleration of our program with dupilumab, Dupixent in COPD in certain allergic disorders, together with an expression of the program for a complementary IL33 antibody. Each of these investment decisions was based on the strength of the clinical data we are seeing with these assets. On my final slide, I want to signal some important upcoming milestones, in what would be a very busy year for our R&D organization. We are planning over 15 new pivotal Phase 3 studies this year, and so you can see -- you can expect to see a number of important milestones or regulatory submissions, including for our oncology assets, cemiplimab, and our CD38 Isatuximab, as well as Sotagliflozin in Type-1 diabetes, the U.S. timing of caplacizumab. In addition, we plan to submit important label extensions for dupilumab and Praluent and the latter obviously will be based on the ODYSSEY OUTCOMES as mentioned by Olivier. So with that, I'd like to hand it over to Jérôme.
Jérôme Contamine: So thank you, Elias, and good morning and good afternoon, everyone. I'm going now to Slide 26; and before discussing the details of the PNL, I would like to highlight and comment on the impact of FX on our reported fourth quarter figures. So in total, currency movements reduced reported sales by 6.1%, or €539 million, on reported business EPS by 6.4%, or €0.08 per share. This clearly resulted also in an overall adverse effect impact on both sales and business EPS for the full year of approximately 2%. Now I move to slide 27, looking at the P&L on a reported basis. Sales in the fourth quarter were €6.7 billion, representing 4.1% CER growth. As in the previous quarters, we faced headwind from the loss of Animal Health contribution. In addition, Dengvaxia label update impacted our business operating income by €158 million in the fourth quarter. Against this, we benefited from a substantial reduction in the Q4 effective tax rate to adjust to a full year rate of 23.5%. These impacts resulted in business net income declining 10.8% at CER in the quarter to €1.3 billion, with business EPS down 8.8% to €1.06, helped by share repurchases. If we add back the €0.10 Dengvaxia charge, business EPS would have been broadly stable. On the subject of tax, when we look to 2018, the impact of tax legislation changes, especially in the U.S., will allow us to lower our expected effective tax rate for the year -- I mean, the year 2018, to around 22%. Now I move to slide 28; here you see our P&L at CER on constant structure in the first quarter. Our gross profit declined at a faster rate than sales, as the benefit of efficiency savings of Specialty Care growth was more than offset by charges associated with Dengvaxia. And the accelerated decline in U.S. Diabetes on sevelamer. At the BOI level, there were some offset from the Regeneron contribution in the associated line, which is now becoming a meaningful driver. Overall though, with continued investment behind immunology launches on priority-only programs, we were unable to achieve the operating leverage we saw in the first nine months. Looking forward, to help you in your modeling for 2018, on the full year basis, on a CER at constant exchange rate, we expect the gross margin to be between 70% and 71% as compared with 70.6% in 2017. Regarding R&D on SG&A, we expect the total i.e., the total operating expenses to grow between 3% and 4%, this includes the acquisitions of Bioverativ and Ablynx, and their impact in 2018 and of course, it was not in the 2017 figure. Also, this increase is mostly driven by R&D expenses increase, which is definitely in line with what Elias has presented before, as well as Olivier, in combination with our internal program plus the contribution of the two acquisitions. On slide 30, I would like to note that in a challenging year, Sanofi met all of its 2017 financial performance objectives. Despite the challenges we faced, we delivered our business EPS guidance for the year, and we met the high end of our initial guidance. I now turn to next slide, our board is proposing an annual dividend of €3.03, which represents a 2% increase of the 24th consecutive year that Sanofi has increased its dividend. Our productive dividend policy remains an important part of our value proposition to shareholders, based on the average share price last month. Proposed dividend implies a 4.2% dividend year. In the past year, including buybacks, we returned €5.5 billion to shareholders, while still maintaining a strong balance sheet. I should also point out, that following the recent acquisition announcements, our credit ratings of AA by Standard and Poors and A1 by Moody's, have both been reaffirmed. On my final two slides, I want to set the scene for the coming year. When we think about our sales performance in 2018, a number of headwinds are likely to impact the first half, despite the expected strong performance on Dupixent. As Olivier mentioned, vaccine sales are likely to decline in the first half, as a result of order phasing and Pentaxim sales, particularly in China. In addition, in the U.S., we are facing generalization of sevelamer, which we didn't have in the first half of last year. In Diabetes, as we noted in the third quarter, we will manage some expected loss of coverage in our Part D business, and a continued decline in average net prices, which will persist throughout the year. As you know, last quarter, we refined our 2015 to 2018 Diabetes sales outlook to -6% to -8%, and we are in the final year of this period. For your modeling consideration, the midpoint of this outlook would imply a decline in 2018 of around 9% at CER. By the second half however, we expect some of these factors to analyze and to be more than offset by positive drivers. Clearly, in addition to Dupixent, the consideration of Bioverativ and the impact of new launches such as Flublok, Kevzara and Admelog will be important. We also await the results of the ODYSSEY OUTCOMES study, which could provide an upside opportunity for Praluent. What this means, we expect the second half bias to our growth during 2018. Now turning to the outlook for the year as a whole; in 2018, we expect to grow business EPS by between 2% and 5% at constant exchange rate. For the reasons I just outlined, we should assume that this growth will be weighted to the second half. In terms of FX, based on December 2017 exchange rates, the impact on business EPS is expected to be -3% to -4%. However, given the volatility we are seeing in the currency markets in general, the FX impact could be closer to -8% in the first quarter at present exchange rates. This impact should of course fade away in the following quarters. I would now like to turn the call back to Olivier.