Olivier Brandicourt
Analyst · Societe Generale. Please go ahead
Thank you, Sebastien. Good morning, good afternoon to everyone, and welcome to our first quarter 2016 earnings conference call. Starting with Slide Number 5, I'm pleased with our performance in the first quarter and the progress we have made on our 2020 roadmap. First, as you have seen, we reported solid financial results with aggregate sales of €8.5 billion and EPS growth of 5.3% at constant exchange rate to €1.34. Second, we continued to move forward with the reshaping of our portfolio. As you saw from our news release yesterday, we have recently made a nonbinding proposal to acquire Medivation. We believe combining Sanofi and Medivation would bolster our oncology franchise and generate value for shareholders of both companies. We already have a presence in prostate cancer with Jevtana, and this transaction would broaden our portfolio in this important indication and potentially add two oncology assets in clinical development. This proposed combination has an attractive financial rationale, and would be immediately accretive to earnings. We will, of course, continue to be financially disciplined during this process. We decided to go public yesterday, because Medivation management was, unfortunately, unwilling to engage, and we felt that shareholders of both companies should be informed about our proposal. Beyond this statement, it would be premature to make further comments today, and I would therefore ask participant on the call to respect the sensitivity of this situation and to keep questions limited to those pertaining to the first quarter. Moving to other business reshaping activities, as you know, we are currently in exclusive discussions with Boehringer Ingelheim, and I'm pleased to report that the deal is expected to be signed mid-year and to close by year-end. In vaccines, we decided to add our joint vaccine operations with Merck in Europe by year-end. With this decision, we will be able to pursue our own growth strategy for vaccines in this important geography. Third, we remain focused on our key launches. In diabetes, Toujeo continues to capture market share in the U.S. and in Europe. For Praluent, we continue to see a limited uptake in the markets where it has been launched. We are working with payers and physicians on ways to make it easier for patients to have access to Praluent in the U.S. and Europe, and to benefit from this innovative medicine. Dengvaxia, the first Dengue vaccine has now been approved in four countries including Brazil and Mexico. Importantly, the first public Dengue immunization program has started in the Philippines in April. I'm encouraged by the recent recommendation by the Strategic Advisory Group of Expert on immunization to the World Health Organization to use Dengvaxia in endemic countries. This important recommendation recognizes the strong public health benefit of our Dengue vaccine and should help us secure further endemic countries' approvals during 2016. Lastly, we continue to drive innovation. The first quarter has been busy with R&D news flow, notably with important announcement of positive top line results from two phase three trials with Dupilumab in atopic dermatitis. And for Sarilumab, we reported top line results of a phase three monotherapy study demonstrating superiority versus Humira in rheumatoid arthritis. In diabetes, we submitted LixiLan, a once-daily combination of insulin glargine and lixisenatide to the European Regulatory Agency for review. Moving on to Slide Number 6, group sales, which include animal health grew slightly in the first quarter and reached €8.543 billion. Changes in vaccine sales reporting and Venezuela currency impact masked the good underlying performance. At first glance, it may appear that reported sales were a bit below consensus forecasts. In fact, approximately half of this gap is due to a reporting change in vaccines, switching €83 million of VaxServe or VaxServe sales, to other revenues. The remainder is due to Venezuela. And although we flagged it prior to the results, it was likely not fully forecast by analysts, excluding Venezuela and VaxServe's group sales, up 3% at constant exchange rate reflecting again the strength of the underlying business. On the bottom line, business EPS grew 5.3% at CER to €1.34. On a reported basis, business EPS was up 1.5%, reflecting a negative currency impact of $0.05 Now on Slide 7, as you know we have restructured the Group into five global business units with effect from January 1st, of this year. This internal reporting structure simplifies Sanofi, deepens specialization and allows clear focus on growth drivers. You can see from this slide that the key drivers of sales growth in Q1 were our Sanofi Genzyme, Sanofi Pasteur, and Merial GBUs. We'll comment on the performance of each of our key franchises in just a minute, but I would particularly like to highlight here the roughly 20% growth achieved by Sanofi Genzyme. On the next slide, Slide 8, we present sales by global franchise. As you saw from the previous slides, this is not how we manage the businesses. Indeed, all emerging market pharmaceutical sales are now included in the General Medicine and emerging market GBU. However, at this stage, we think that showing you the performance by franchise provides a bridge to our previous reporting methodology and allows straightforward peer comparisons. Again, this slide emphasizes the importance of our specialty care vaccine and animal health franchise to our growth in the quarter. We are especially pleased that our specialty care business continues to deliver strong double-digit growth, and that our vaccine business grew by 8% despite the Pentacel supply constraint in the U.S., which impacted our developed market performance. You can see on this slide that Venezuela impacted our overall performance. This is particularly noticeable for consumer healthcare, which was down 9.9% at CER in emerging market, but actually grew 3.8% if we exclude Venezuela. And there is a similar story for established products in emerging market, which were about 2.1% in the quarter but increased 8.8% excluding Venezuela. As a final word on this slide, the established products in developed markets were heavily impacted by Plavix generics in Japan, the impact of which we start to annualize in second half. Turning to Slide 9 and taking a closer look at the growth drivers in the individual franchises, you can see that the success story of our rare disease business has continued in the first quarter. Sales of the global franchise were €646 million, up 8.5%. New patient accruals continued to be the main contributor to the growth of our brand in Gaucher, Favry, and Pompe diseases. Specifically in Gaucher, the first quarter marked a milestone, with now more than 500 patients receiving Cerdelga, of which 38% are from non-Cerezyme patient segments. New patient accruals also translated into growth for Fabrazyme in the quarter, growing 6.4% in the first three months following a particularly strong fourth quarter last year. On Slide 10, our multiple sclerosis franchise delivered very strong growth in the first quarter. Sales of our two brands grew significantly compared to the first quarter of last year. Aubagio remains the fastest-growing oral disease-modifying therapy in the MS market, and annualized sales now exceed €1 billion. And particularly traced to serious success of Lemtrada, it's reported by new clinical evidence that continues to demonstrate how this highly effective drug can serve as a transformative treatment for appropriate patients. Moving on Slide 11, our global vaccines business unit continues to deliver. Vaccines showed good growth of 8.2% despite lower sales of Patacel due to supply constraint in the U.S. that we highlighted last quarter. Sales in the quarter were driven by the polio, pertussis, and Hib vaccines franchise in emerging markets, and by Menactra in the U.S. as a result of favorable order phasing by the CDC. In addition, Dengvaxia contributed to growth in emerging markets with an initial €19 million recorded from sales in the Philippines. Of note, we recently submitted a dossier for approval of Dengvaxia to the regulatory agency in Europe. Now on Slide 12, let me turn to our diabetes franchise and have a closer look at the performance of our two insulin glargine products, Toujeo and Lantus. My main message here is that our global diabetes franchise continues to perform in line with our revised guidance from last October. In the first quarter, worldwide sales of diabetes were €1.7 billion, down 4.5%, which is actually better than the 12.6% decline we saw in the previous quarter. As expected, first quarter sales in the U.S. continued to be negatively impacted by lower average net price. Indeed, this resulted in a sales decrease of 11.1%. However, from a volume perspective, I would also like to point out that our combined glargine franchise of Lantus and Toujeo maintained a relatively stable share of the basal insulin market in the U.S. In Europe, diabetes grew 4% despite biosimilar competition. And in emerging markets, sales increased by 12%, excluding Venezuela, with strong contribution coming from our leading position in the fast-growing diabetes market in China. Overall, diabetes performed in line with our guidance of global sales to be down by minus 4% to minus 8% annually over the period of 2015 to 2018. Moving to Slide 13, let me take a few minutes to update you on the launch of Praluent and add some perspective. Sales in the first quarter were €12 million, reflecting the significant payer restrictions limiting the uptake of this innovative medicine. As we know from our market research conducted in the U.S. and Germany, physicians warn us of the PCSK9 class, and their willingness to use this new treatment option have reached already very high levels. However, despite the observed strong intent to prescribe PSCK9 to appropriate patients, both physicians and patients are confronted with significant administrative hurdles which are imposed by payers before providing access to this important new therapy. And prescription volumes remained subdued in key markets, and treatment with this innovative medicine often remains reserved to very severe patients. In this market environment, we believe our ODDSEY cardiovascular outcome study will be a key driver in shaping the future success of Praluent. The total of 18,000 patients have been enrolled globally in the phase three trial. We are pleased to report that the Data Monitoring Committee of the ODYSSEY OUTCOME study recently completed the first interim analysis. In addition to the review of the safety data, the DMC performed a futility assessment and recommended the study to continue with no challenges. Please note that Sanofi remains blinded to the data from this trial. The second interim data analysis for futility and overwhelming efficacy may potentially be enabled in the second half of this year when 75% of the targeted number of coronary events has occurred. While we believe that the OUTCOME study results and their incorporation into clinical practice guidelines will support broader use of Praluent, we see limited uptake in the marketplace for the time being. As I mentioned earlier, we are also working with payers and physicians on ways to make it easier for appropriate patients to have access to Praluent and benefit from this innovative medicine. Let me say that we are concerned that eligible patients are not getting timely access to this innovative drug and this concern is supported by feedback we receive every day from GPs and cardiologists as well as from our own market research, which we can discuss in the Q&A. In the U.S., our efforts also focus on driving product awareness and adoption. Our sales force recently received new promotional material which succinctly communicates the benefits of our dosing flexibility, educate on our efficacy, safety, and administration data and provide information regarding our coverage, patient assistance programs and support services. To expand our dosing flexibility options, we also expect to file the 300 milligram monthly dosing for Praluent with the FDA in the second quarter this year. Finally, Sanofi and Regeneron strongly disagree with the recent U.S. jury-backed verdict in ongoing patent litigation and will appeal. We do not believe that Amgen's patents are valid, and we are confident that the law and the facts support our invalidative position. Turning to Slide 14, the consumer healthcare franchise delivered solid performance in the first quarter, with sales up 4.1% -- the impact of Venezuela and adjusting for the divestment of several small products. In the U.S., sales were up 7.7%, driven by our strong Allegra, Nasacort, and Gold Bond brands. In Europe, sales were down 7.3% to €242 million in the quarter, impacted by Doliprane price cuts in France in 2015 and a mild winter season compared with the first quarter of last year. In emerging markets, sales were down 9.9% to 311 million primarily due to Venezuela. However, excluding Venezuela, CHC sales in emerging markets were up 3.8%. As I mentioned earlier, our exclusive discussion with Boehringer Ingelheim on the intended asset swap of our animal health business with Boehringer Ingelheim's CHCC business are progressing well, and we expect to sign the transaction around mid-year and to close the deal by year-end. On Slide 15, taking a closer look at the breakdown of sales by geography, you can see that we are well diversified, and that the growth contribution from emerging markets remains strong. Excluding Venezuela, our emerging market growth reached 13.1%, which we believe to be well ahead of our peers. Despite economic slowdown and volatility in some countries, sales in our strongest region, Asia, grew 15.6%. Sales in Asia were particularly boosted by 17.6% growth in China, where Sanofi outpaces market growth. In China, we continue to benefit from a well-suited portfolio of quality brands in chronic diseases and vaccines. We are also capturing market share for our key brands in the fast-growing county market outside the key cities. Moving on to Slide Number 16, I want to highlight the key pipeline news and data points which we expect this year. As you can see, 2016 will continue to be rich in R&D news flow. As mentioned earlier, we foresee additional regulatory approvals for Dengvaxia throughout the year. In diabetes, we expect U.S. regulatory decisions on Lixisenatide and LixiLan in July and August 2016 respectively, with an FDA Advisory Committee meeting scheduled for these two products on May 25th. For Sarilumab, the FDA accepted for review our VLA for rheumatoid arthritis, and the PDUFA date is set for October 30th. We are also expecting to submit regulatory filing for Sarilumab in Europe in Q3 2016. Following the recent positive top line results from two phase three Dupilumab studies in atopic dermatitis, we are looking forward to the expected U.S. regulatory submission for this breakthrough innovation in Q3 this year. And as I mentioned earlier, we expect the second interim analysis of ODYSSEY OUTCOMES during the second half of the year. Lastly on this slide, I would particularly like to highlight that we have seven registrational studies expected to start this year, including the PD1 from the Regeneron-IO collaboration. Cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma will be a novel tumor type that is not addressed by other PD-1 inhibitors. As we announced last March, Yong-Jun Liu has joined Sanofi as Head of Research, global R&D. He will report to Elias Zerhouni, President, Global R&D. Dr. Liu is one of the world's most prolific researchers in immunology. He's at the root of the development of several key drug targets in the area of allergy, immunology, and oncology. I have great confidence that Yong-Jun will position Sanofi on the leading edge of scientific breakthroughs and drug discovery in the years to come. The next two slides focus on Sarilumab and Dupilumab. Each has been developed in partnership with Regeneron and we expect these to become the cornerstones of an important new franchise in immunology. On Slide 17, Sarilumab is the first human IL-6 receptor antibody to be specifically developed in a convenient subcutaneous formulation. We expect the drug to enter the large but highly competitive RA market. The important point to note here is that this is an indication where the unmet needs remain surprisingly high. Many patients cycled from multiple therapies as each drug tends to stop working within a few years. Physical data for Sarilumab in combination with Methotrexate supports its use in TNF inadequate responders and Methotrexate-inadequate responders, as well as its use as a potential monotherapy. Importantly, X-ray data demonstrating 90% inhibition of structural damage with our 200 milligram dose every two weeks could be a key differentiating point. We also recently announced top line results for the SARIL-RA-MONARCH monotherapy study demonstrating the superiority of Sarilumab efficacy versus Humira in patients with active RA. The unique profile of Sarilumab also features potential dosing flexibility with two doses 150 milligrams and 200 milligrams every two weeks, which have been [indiscernible]. The U.S. regulatory decision for Sarilumab is expected in early Q4 2016, and the regulatory submission into EU is planned for the third quarter. Turning to Slide 18, Dupilumab has the potential to be a truly transformative therapy for a whole range of allergic diseases driven by an over-reactive TH2 pathway. It is the only monoclonal antibody in development with dual inhibition of IL-4 and IL-13 receptors. Dupilumab is expected to be the first in a new class of immunotherapies for moderate to severe atopic dermatitis, a serious chronic inflammatory skin disease marked by widespread rash, itching and associated psycho-social comorbidities. Dupilumab is the first systematic therapy to show positive top line results from two identically designed phase three trials in patient with moderate to severe atopic dermatitis, demonstrating compelling efficacy without evidence of immune-suppressing side effects. In the two studies, which we call SOLO-1 and SOLO-2, Dupilumab's excellent efficacy was shown across a range of endpoints, including the five-point Investigator's Global Assessment Scale, as well as the Eczema Area Severity Index and other measures. More detailed results from SOLO-1 and SOLO-2 will be submitted for presentation at a future medical congress. We are looking forward to the planned U.S. regulatory submission for this breakthrough innovation in Q3 this year. The rolling VLA submission will also include data from the planned second quarter 2016 interim analysis of the LIBERTY CHRONOS study of Dupilumab in combination with topical corticosteroids. Final results for the LIBERTY CHRONOS study are expected in the third quarter this year. Lastly, we also initiated a European Dupilumab pivotal study in Q1 2016 to assess efficacy in adult patients with atopic dermatitis who respond inadequately to systemic cyclosporine A, or are not suitable for cyclosporine A treatment. And with that, I will now turn the call over to Jerome to discuss the details of our financial results.